Electoral Analysis - list of articles

Copeland by-election
Analysis of the upcoming by-election in Copeland using ward-level analysis of party support, EU referendum result and 2d Political mapping.
Posted 13-Feb-2017

Stoke-on-Trent Central by-election
Analysis of the upcoming by-election in Stoke using ward-level analysis of party support, EU referendum result and 2d Political mapping.
Posted 25-Jan-2017

The hidden wiring behind modern politics and where it gives UKIP a chance to beat Labour
A major new analysis of all the wards in Britain applying the new 2D Political mapping. The political attitudes of each ward has been calculated and plotted, both as a 2D Political Map, and on conventional geography. There are interesting conclusions for UKIP's best electoral strategy.
Posted 30-Dec-2016

2D Political Map
A whole new way of viewing modern politics - the two-dimensional political map. By adding a new dimension of internationalist versus nationalist to the traditional economic left/right axis, modern political movements snap into focus and a new understanding is gained.
Posted 7-Dec-2016

Liberal Leaver Blog
Blog on how to make the Best of Brexit. Ideas and polling on issues around the UK leaving the EU. Topics include: Voters want democracy; Free trade; the Norway EEA model; House of Lords reform.
Posted 27-Jun-2016, updated 8-Aug-2016

Electoral Calculus Front Page Blog
Running blog on electoral pieces which have been posted on the front page. Topics covered include Voter Migration since 2015; Upcoming new boundary changes; analysis if Labour splits.
Posted 7-Aug-2016, updated 15-Aug-2016

New boundaries 2018
Full analysis of the revised constituency boundaries to be proposed by the four national Boundary Commissions. This currently shows a possible likely outcome. Once proposals are published, it will include seat-by-seat nominal results, plus overall totals, and lists of seats which are destroyed, created or change hands.
Posted 30-May-2016

Lords Reform - Analysis of Voting Systems
Following the failed attempt to reform the House of Lords in 2012, this article analyses various proposals, paying particular attention to what historical Lords election results would have been under those systems. A positive proposal for workable House of Lords reform is made. Now updated to include projections for a democratic Lords in 2015.
Posted 1-Jan-2013, updated 1-Nov-2015

Election History and Commentary
Overview of all election results from 1900, along with some commentary on elections since 1997 and comments on how to use the site.
Posted 2-Oct-2007, updated 14-Sep-2015

Voter Migration 2010-2015
Graphic showing how voters changed their vote from 2010 to 2015, with accompanying data tables and analysis.
Posted 30-May-2015

Track Record - 2015 Election
Comparison of the actual 2015 election result against our prediction. What caused the bad error. How bad were the polls, and how good was the model?
Posted 16-May-2015

Track Record - Overview
Summary track record of Electoral Calculus predictions against actual election results for 1992 to date.
Posted 2-May-1997, updated 16-May-2015

Election Night Blog May 2015
Transcript of the Electoral Calculus blog as it happned on 7-8 May 2015.
Posted 10-May-2015

Campaign Calculus 2015
A series of articles by Martin Baxter on the general election campaign which appeared in the Daily Telegraph online. Complete list of articles:

Posted 8-May-2015

Shaped Strong Transition Model
A new model has been created to improve predictions for the upcoming election. The new model has much better predictions for UKIP and the Greens as well as better dynamics for declining parties such as the Liberal Democrats.
Posted 4-Apr-2015

UKIP Tactical Voting
Will tactical voting by voters help or hinder UKIP's quest to win Westminster seats? This article looks at the data, predicts the election using a tactical voting model, and draws some conclusions.
Posted 14-Dec-2014

Hung Parliament Battleground
The growth in support for the SNP has created a dizzying array of possibilities for a hung parliament, as well as increasing the chance of one. This analysis uses an exciting new infographic to map out the complex set of possible outcomes.
Posted 13-Dec-2014

Can the Conservatives win?
With no more than two years until the next election, this analysis looks at the historical precedents for governments in mid term and assesses whether the Conservatives are likely to win a majority next time.
Posted 6-Sep-2013

UKIP - Electoral Analysis
Following UKIP's strong performance at the county council elections in May 2013, this analysis investigates whether this would translate into a large number of seats at Westminster.
Posted 5-May-2013, updated 14-Jun-2013

New boundaries 2013
Full analysis of the revised constituency boundaries proposed by the four national Boundary Commissions. This includes seat-by-seat nominal results, plus overall totals, and lists of seats which are destroyed, created or change hands. Following disagreements within the coalition government, these proposals will not come into force, and the existing boundaries will be used at the next election.
Posted 18-Sep-2011

Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Bill - Alternative Vote System
This article analyses the potential impact of a change to the Alternative Vote system. It describes the system, how to model it, and analyses its fairness on the basis of its possible effect on previous election results.
Posted 23-Dec-2010

Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Bill - Analysis of Boundaries
The government has proposed changes to the way that constituency boundaries are drawn up, as well as plans for a referundum on AV. This article analyses the changes to constituencies and discusses how much benefit the changes will produce and at what cost.
Posted 12-Sep-2010

Track Record - 2010 Model Comparisons
Comparison of various models. How did our Strong Transition Model compare against the Uniform National Swing model and others?
Posted 1-Jul-2010

Track Record - 2010 Election
Comparison of the actual 2010 election result against our prediction. What did we get right and wrong, and what lessons can be learnt.
Posted 16-May-2010

Slide-o-meter 2010: Describing our special election night companion - the Electoral Calculus Slide-o-Meter. Lets you follow the unfolding seat declarations and compare them with our predictions.
Posted 2-May-2010

Election Campaign 2010: Campaign model improvements
We have introduced two special improvements to our prediction model for the duration of the general election campaign. We are using a regional swing model (rather than the crude uniform national swing), plus looking at prices from spread betting markets.
Posted 24-Apr-2010

Hung Parliament: How likely is it and what could happen?
There is a chance that the next election will result in a hung parliament. Just how likely is this to happen, and if it does how much real choice will Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats have?
Posted 27-Nov-2009

Safe Seats: Are MPs really at risk?
An MP stands a risk of losing his or her job at every general election. If their electorate is dissatisfied they can be sacked. But how many MPs are genuinely at risk of losing their seat? This analysis looks at the facts from history and estimates which current MPs are immune from public opinion. The analysis also involves some intereting extreme scenarios.
Posted 13-Sep-2009

Regional Swing Prediction
Using a large-sample YouGov poll we are able to measure regional swing and discover that previous "depolarisation" trends are continuing. Labour are relatively losing ground in the north, and gaining in the south. The overall effect is for the Conservatives to gain about 10 seats at the expense of Labour.
Posted 22-Aug-2009

Strong Transition Model
Description of Electoral Calculus' advanced prediction model, which builds on the basic transition model, but with extra features to incorporate incumbency and local party strength. The model has been particularly designed to cope with weakened parties, such as the Lib Dems in autumn 2007.
Posted 28-Oct-2007

Liberal Democrat wipeout?
Predictions in October 2007 show the Lib Dems with no seats, which is obviously a bit low. This analysis looks at why the model says this, the history of predicting Lib Dem results, and why the outlook for them looks bad under any model
Posted 14-Oct-2007

Gap analysis
Even when Labour and the Conservatives have equal support, Labour still wins about 90 more seats than the Conservatives. Our new gap analysis explains the causes of this "gap", considers its fairness and predicts whether it will last.
Posted 3-Sep-2006

New boundaries for England and Wales 2006
The Boundary Commissions for England and Wales have redrawn many of the parliamentary seat boundaries. This analysis gives an overview of the political impact of these changes, along with lists of the seats which are disappearing and the new seats which are created.
Posted 5-Feb-2006

Track Record - 2005 Election
Comparison of the actual 2005 election result against our prediction. What did we get wrong, and what were the cause of the errors.
Posted 6-May-2005

Scenarios for 2005 Election
In the run-up to the 2005 election, we analyse likely scenarios by examining the final opinion polls, betting markets, Electoral Calculus users' trends, and tactical voting.
Posted 1-May-2005

Track Record - 2001 Election
Comparison of the actual 2001 election result against our prediction. What did we get wrong, and what were the cause of the errors.
Posted 13-Mar-2005

Tactical Voting Model
A description of our tactical voting model, along with numerical evidence from the last four election results. We focus on the differences between the actual result and our basic prediction, and see how much of the difference can be explained by tactical factors.
Posted 2-Jan-2005

Science of Opinion Polls
A brief note on the science of opinion polls. How much error can be expected due just to random chance?
Posted 31-Jul-2004

Transition Model for Predictions
A full description of Electoral Calculus' basic transition model for predicting elections. The new model avoids some problems of the additive swing model, whilst retaining its good properties, and making very similar predictions for which party will actually win each seat. Backtesting each model against the 1987-2001 elections showed quite good performance from both, with the Transition Model being slightly, but not significantly, more accurate.
Posted 8-Jul-2004


©Martin Baxter.