Northern Ireland: New Constituency Boundaries 2018

Each new seat can be described as a combination of parts of old seats. These tables show this decomposition. The winner of the old seat at the 2015 election is shown by party colour, as is the implied winner of the new seat.

The implied results are calculated using the local election results for the wards which make up each old seat. This should give the most accurate projection, since it reflects varying political behaviour across the seat.

Overall the DUP are net flat: they lose "Londonderry East" (which becomes "Glenshane") and "Upper Bann" (which becomes "Upper Bann and Blackstone"); but they gain "Antrim West" (which used to be "Antrim South") from the UUP and the new seat of "Down West".

The UUP are projected to lose both of their existing seats: "Antrim South" becomes "Antrim West", which is a DUP gain; and "Fermanagh and South Tyrone" is gained by Sinn Fein.

The SDLP lose one of their three seats: "Belfast South" disappears.

Sinn Fein have a new gain of two seats: they gain "Upper Bann and Blackwater" from the DUP, "Glenshane" (which used to be "Londonderry East") from the DUP, and "Fermanagh and South Tyrone" from the UUP; but they lose "Ulster Mid" which disappears.

Northern Ireland Change Table

  Old SeatsNew SeatsChangeDisappearSwitch OutSwitch InFresh
UUP20-20-200
SDLP32-1-1000
DUP8800-211
UKIP0000000
Green0000000
SF462-1030
MIN1100000
Total1817-1-2-441

The table shows how the various changes affect each party in this region. The total old and new seats are shown for each party, as well as their difference ('Change'). The change in seats is also explained through the four explanations:

The old seats which are disappearing are: Belfast South; Ulster Mid.

The old seats which are lost to another party are: Antrim South; Fermanagh and South Tyrone; Londonderry East; Upper Bann.

The new seats which are gained from another party are: Antrim West; Fermanagh and South Tyrone; Glenshane; Upper Bann and Blackwater.

The new seats which are freshly created are: Down West.

Antrim

New seatPrimary componentSecondary component(s)
Antrim East 93.3% of Antrim East 19.9% of Belfast North
0.6% of Antrim South
Antrim West 52.4% of Antrim South 44.6% of Antrim North
2.5% of Belfast North
2.0% of Antrim East
Belfast East 81.4% of Belfast East 30.4% of Belfast South
0.4% of Lagan Valley
0.4% of Down North
Belfast North West 75.8% of Belfast North 30.7% of Belfast West
Belfast South West 69.3% of Belfast West 45.3% of Belfast South
1.3% of Lagan Valley

Armagh

New seatPrimary componentSecondary component(s)
Down West 45.0% of Lagan Valley 36.5% of Upper Bann
13.9% of Belfast South
2.0% of Down South
0.3% of Strangford
Newry and Armagh 89.9% of Newry and Armagh 3.8% of Upper Bann
1.9% of Down South
Upper Bann and Blackwater 57.2% of Upper Bann 18.5% of Fermanagh and South Tyrone
11.5% of Ulster Mid
8.9% of Newry and Armagh

Down

New seatPrimary componentSecondary component(s)
Antrim South 53.2% of Lagan Valley 46.9% of Antrim South
1.9% of Belfast North
Down North 96.4% of Down North 18.6% of Belfast East
Down South 94.0% of Down South 2.5% of Upper Bann
1.2% of Newry and Armagh
0.2% of Lagan Valley
Strangford 99.7% of Strangford 10.4% of Belfast South
3.3% of Down North
2.0% of Down South

Fermanagh

New seatPrimary componentSecondary component(s)
Fermanagh and South Tyrone 78.5% of Fermanagh and South Tyrone 26.3% of Tyrone West
1.6% of Ulster Mid
Tyrone North 72.2% of Tyrone West 33.6% of Ulster Mid
3.0% of Fermanagh and South Tyrone

Londonderry

New seatPrimary componentSecondary component(s)
Dalriada 55.4% of Antrim North 43.7% of Londonderry East
4.7% of Antrim East
Foyle 100% of Foyle 1.4% of Tyrone West
Glenshane 56.3% of Londonderry East 53.3% of Ulster Mid
0.0% of Foyle