Hove: Ward Breakdown

This page gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Hove at the general election of 2010. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2010, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). Such wards are shown divided into several parts, called [1], [2], and so on.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2010 from the period 2007-2011. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Hove: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2013

Seat: Hove

Workings for Hove

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Hove. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. Details of the transfer calculation are given below this table.

Seat: HoveActual ResultsTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
Electorate
2010
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
OTH
Votes
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Brighton and HoveBrunswick and Adelaide20116,74978901,4213,74062601,1282,9694,723
Brighton and HoveCentral Hove20116,4181,90406463,1231,50805122,4734,493
Brighton and HoveGoldsmid201110,9974,181086210,9082,01704165,2637,696
Brighton and HoveHangleton and Knoll201110,7196,35204697,5963,30502443,9537,502
Brighton and HoveHove Park20117,8704,92503562,0223,71502691,5255,509
Brighton and HoveNorth Portslade20117,6471,64902323,4721,64902323,4715,352
Brighton and HoveSouth Portslade20116,9281,77103883,4751,52403342,9914,849
Brighton and HoveWestbourne20117,1242,38004503,3531,91903632,7044,986
Brighton and HoveWish20116,7292,49302893,9761,73702012,7714,709
 Total 71,181    18,00003,69928,12049,819

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the seat of Hove at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole seat.

PartyGeneral
Election 2010
Votes
Local Election
Turnout-adjusted
Votes
Votes to
transfer
away
Votes to
transfer
into
Ward Transfers needed
CON18,29418,0000294Transfer in 1.2% (= 294 / 24261) of ward's transfer pool votes
LAB16,4260016,426Transfer in 67.7% (= 16426 / 24261) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB11,2403,69907,541Transfer in 31.1% (= 7541 / 24261) of ward's transfer pool votes
OTH3,85928,12024,2610Transfer away 86.3% (= 24261 / 28120) of ward's OTH votes
Total49,81949,81924,26124,261 

Main table for Hove

The main table shows the general election transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the seat of Hove, as well as the predicted election result.

Seat: HoveEst. 2010 General Election ResultsPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2010
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Brighton and HoveBrunswick and Adelaide6,7496571,7341,9244074,7225452,1634671,5464,721
Brighton and HoveCentral Hove6,4181,5341,4451,1753394,4931,2741,7602851,1744,493
Brighton and HoveGoldsmid10,9972,0723,0741,8277227,6951,7203,5494431,9827,694
Brighton and HoveHangleton and Knoll10,7193,3462,3091,3045427,5012,7782,7353161,6727,501
Brighton and HoveHove Park7,8703,7318916782095,5093,0981,2051641,0425,509
Brighton and HoveNorth Portslade7,6471,6852,0281,1634765,3521,3992,3472821,3235,351
Brighton and HoveSouth Portslade6,9281,5551,7471,1364104,8481,2912,0552761,2274,849
Brighton and HoveWestbourne7,1241,9471,5801,0883714,9861,6171,8962641,2094,986
Brighton and HoveWish6,7291,7661,6199443804,7091,4661,8972291,1174,709
 Total71,18118,29316,42711,2393,85649,81915,18819,6072,72612,29249,813

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the seat.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% of its votes from each ward. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done on a ward-by-ward basis using these common percentages.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.