Aberconwy: New Boundaries Calculation

Due to changes in ward boundaries, some new wards are divided among several old constituencies (though never between two new constituencies). Such wards are shown divided into several parts, called [1], [2], and so on.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election from 2003, 2004 or 2006. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed. Where zero votes are shown, the ward is not needed because the entire old seat is unsplit.

Calculation method: There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% of its votes from each ward. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done on a ward-by-ward basis using these common percentages.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

The old seat(s) needed are:

• Meirionnydd Nant Conwy
• Conwy

Old seat: Meirionnydd Nant Conwy

					Actual Results					Turnout-adjusted Results						Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2005	Old Seat	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	NAT Votes	OTH Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	NAT Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	NAT Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Conwy	Betws-y-Coed	1,026	Meirionnydd Nant Conwy	Aberconwy	0	14	41	142	352	0	16	47	162	403	628	199	72	144	183	27	628
Conwy	Crwst	1,563	Meirionnydd Nant Conwy	Aberconwy	0	408	0	456	0	0	452	0	505	0	957	0	452	0	505	0	957
Conwy	Eglwysbach	1,224	Meirionnydd Nant Conwy	Aberconwy	0	150	0	0	562	0	158	0	0	591	749	292	241	142	32	40	749
Conwy	Gower	858	Meirionnydd Nant Conwy	Aberconwy	0	53	57	378	9	0	56	60	399	10	525	4	57	62	399	0	525
Conwy	Trefriw	1,051	Meirionnydd Nant Conwy	Aberconwy	0	0	0	290	251	0	0	0	345	298	643	147	42	71	361	20	643
Conwy	Uwch Conwy	1,249	Meirionnydd Nant Conwy	Aberconwy	0	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	764	0	764	0	0	0	764	0	764
Gwynedd	Aberdovey	1,135	Meirionnydd Nant Conwy	Dwyfor Meirionnydd	0	0	0	0	590	0	0	0	0	695	695	344	98	167	37	47	695
Gwynedd	Abermaw	1,917	Meirionnydd Nant Conwy	Dwyfor Meirionnydd	0	-1	0	0	0	0	1,173	0	0	0	1,173	0	1,173	0	0	0	1,173
Gwynedd	Bala	1,550	Meirionnydd Nant Conwy	Dwyfor Meirionnydd	0	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	949	0	949	0	0	0	949	0	949
Gwynedd	Bowydd & Rhiw	1,428	Meirionnydd Nant Conwy	Dwyfor Meirionnydd	0	-1	0	0	0	0	874	0	0	0	874	0	874	0	0	0	874
Gwynedd	Brithdir & Llanfachreth/Ganllwyd /Llanelltyd	1,153	Meirionnydd Nant Conwy	Dwyfor Meirionnydd	0	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	706	0	706	0	0	0	706	0	706
Gwynedd	Bryn-crug/Llanfihangel	829	Meirionnydd Nant Conwy	Dwyfor Meirionnydd	0	0	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	507	507	250	71	122	27	34	507
Gwynedd	Corris/Mawddwy	961	Meirionnydd Nant Conwy	Dwyfor Meirionnydd	0	0	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	588	588	291	82	141	32	39	588
Gwynedd	Diffwys & Maenofferen	922	Meirionnydd Nant Conwy	Dwyfor Meirionnydd	0	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	564	0	564	0	0	0	564	0	564
Gwynedd	Dolgellau North	1,037	Meirionnydd Nant Conwy	Dwyfor Meirionnydd	0	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	635	0	635	0	0	0	635	0	635
Gwynedd	Dolgellau South	1,087	Meirionnydd Nant Conwy	Dwyfor Meirionnydd	0	0	349	0	196	0	0	426	0	239	665	118	33	483	13	16	665
Gwynedd	Dyffryn Ardudwy	1,319	Meirionnydd Nant Conwy	Dwyfor Meirionnydd	0	0	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	807	807	399	113	194	44	54	807
Gwynedd	Harlech	1,535	Meirionnydd Nant Conwy	Dwyfor Meirionnydd	0	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	939	0	939	0	0	0	939	0	939
Gwynedd	Llanbedr	910	Meirionnydd Nant Conwy	Dwyfor Meirionnydd	0	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	557	0	557	0	0	0	557	0	557
Gwynedd	Llandderfel	1,204	Meirionnydd Nant Conwy	Dwyfor Meirionnydd	0	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	737	0	737	0	0	0	737	0	737
Gwynedd	Llangelynin	1,689	Meirionnydd Nant Conwy	Dwyfor Meirionnydd	0	0	0	272	565	0	0	0	336	698	1,034	345	98	168	374	47	1,034
Gwynedd	Llanuwchllyn	754	Meirionnydd Nant Conwy	Dwyfor Meirionnydd	0	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	461	0	461	0	0	0	461	0	461
Gwynedd	Penrhyndeudraeth	1,902	Meirionnydd Nant Conwy	Dwyfor Meirionnydd	0	0	0	689	403	0	0	0	734	430	1,164	212	60	103	757	29	1,164
Gwynedd	Teigl	1,483	Meirionnydd Nant Conwy	Dwyfor Meirionnydd	0	0	0	624	118	0	0	0	763	144	907	71	20	34	770	9	907
Gwynedd	Trawsfynydd	1,226	Meirionnydd Nant Conwy	Dwyfor Meirionnydd	0	0	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	750	750	371	105	181	40	50	750
Gwynedd	Tywyn	2,711	Meirionnydd Nant Conwy	Dwyfor Meirionnydd	0	357	0	836	891	0	284	0	666	709	1,659	350	384	171	704	48	1,659
	Total		Meirionnydd Nant Conwy							0	3,013	533	10,222	6,869	20,637	3,400	3,982	2,191	10,596	465	20,637

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Meirionnydd Nant Conwy at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

Party	General Election 2005 Votes	Local Election Turnout-adjusted Votes	Votes to transfer away	Votes to transfer into	Ward Transfers needed
CON	3,402	0	0	3,402	Transfer in 53.1% (= 3402 / 6406) of ward's transfer pool votes
LAB	3,983	3,013	0	970	Transfer in 15.1% (= 970 / 6406) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB	2,192	533	0	1,659	Transfer in 25.9% (= 1659 / 6406) of ward's transfer pool votes
NAT	10,597	10,222	0	375	Transfer in 5.9% (= 375 / 6406) of ward's transfer pool votes
OTH	466	6,869	6,403	0	Transfer away 93.2% (= 6403 / 6869) of ward's OTH votes
Total	20,640	20,637	6,406	6,406

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

Old seat: Conwy

					Actual Results					Turnout-adjusted Results						Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2005	Old Seat	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	NAT Votes	OTH Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	NAT Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	NAT Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Conwy	Bryn	1,383	Conwy	Aberconwy	0	495	179	0	0	0	621	225	0	0	846	13	627	205	0	0	846
Conwy	Caerhun	1,560	Conwy	Aberconwy	0	234	0	0	675	0	246	0	0	709	955	374	423	0	0	156	955
Conwy	Capelulo	1,209	Conwy	Aberconwy	109	129	90	0	212	149	177	123	0	290	739	309	253	112	0	64	739
Conwy	Conwy	3,233	Conwy	Aberconwy	215	429	221	628	705	193	386	199	565	634	1,977	715	634	181	304	140	1,977
Conwy	Craig-y-Don	2,837	Conwy	Aberconwy	892	113	579	664	192	635	80	412	472	137	1,736	878	195	376	254	30	1,736
Conwy	Deganwy	3,197	Conwy	Aberconwy	958	413	752	0	325	765	330	601	0	260	1,956	937	412	548	0	57	1,956
Conwy	Gogarth	3,042	Conwy	Aberconwy	704	467	365	0	612	610	405	316	0	530	1,861	908	546	288	0	117	1,861
Conwy	Llansanffraid	1,860	Conwy	Aberconwy	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	1,138	0	0	1,138	66	31	1,039	0	0	1,138
Conwy	Marl	2,976	Conwy	Aberconwy	0	867	797	0	0	0	949	872	0	0	1,821	51	973	796	0	0	1,821
Conwy	Mostyn (Conwy)	2,700	Conwy	Aberconwy	287	1,009	342	0	394	233	820	278	0	320	1,651	418	908	253	0	70	1,651
Conwy	Pandy	1,428	Conwy	Aberconwy	0	164	475	206	0	0	170	491	213	0	874	95	215	448	114	0	874
Conwy	Pant-yr-afon/Penmaenan	2,067	Conwy	Aberconwy	101	587	142	0	62	143	832	201	0	88	1,264	201	859	183	0	19	1,264
Conwy	Penrhyn	3,825	Conwy	Aberconwy	829	449	378	0	1,479	619	335	282	0	1,104	2,340	1,218	619	257	0	244	2,340
Conwy	Pensarn	2,091	Conwy	Aberconwy	0	164	353	364	0	0	238	513	529	0	1,280	195	330	468	285	0	1,280
Conwy	Tudno	3,597	Conwy	Aberconwy	346	792	0	285	1,193	291	666	0	240	1,004	2,201	895	953	0	129	222	2,201
Gwynedd	Arllechwedd	1,059	Conwy	Arfon	0	0	290	267	0	0	0	337	311	0	648	116	55	307	167	0	648
Gwynedd	Deiniol	1,014	Conwy	Arfon	0	54	56	77	0	0	179	186	255	0	620	90	222	169	137	0	620
Gwynedd	Dewi	1,217	Conwy	Arfon	0	364	38	135	0	0	505	53	187	0	745	61	534	48	100	0	745
Gwynedd	Garth	814	Conwy	Arfon	0	0	0	125	111	0	0	0	264	234	498	205	97	0	142	51	498
Gwynedd	Gerlan	1,598	Conwy	Arfon	0	474	0	438	0	0	508	0	470	0	978	146	577	0	253	0	978
Gwynedd	Glyder	1,412	Conwy	Arfon	0	153	0	409	0	0	235	0	629	0	864	196	328	0	339	0	864
Gwynedd	Hendre	976	Conwy	Arfon	0	156	0	154	0	0	301	0	297	0	598	92	345	0	160	0	598
Gwynedd	Hirael	1,070	Conwy	Arfon	0	93	217	128	0	0	139	324	191	0	654	78	176	295	102	0	654
Gwynedd	Marchog	1,755	Conwy	Arfon	0	496	0	0	303	0	667	0	0	407	1,074	214	769	0	0	90	1,074
Gwynedd	Menai (Bangor)	1,899	Conwy	Arfon	0	69	419	112	0	0	134	811	217	0	1,162	115	188	740	117	0	1,162
Gwynedd	Ogwen	1,729	Conwy	Arfon	0	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	1,058	0	1,058	330	157	0	570	0	1,058
Gwynedd	Pentir	1,820	Conwy	Arfon	0	254	0	454	0	0	399	0	714	0	1,113	223	504	0	385	0	1,113
Gwynedd	Tregarth & Mynydd Llandygai	1,641	Conwy	Arfon	0	443	0	322	295	0	420	0	305	279	1,004	242	535	0	164	61	1,004
	Total		Conwy							3,638	9,742	7,362	6,917	5,996	33,655	9,396	12,478	6,723	3,729	1,326	33,655

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Conwy at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

Party	General Election 2005 Votes	Local Election Turnout-adjusted Votes	Votes to transfer away	Votes to transfer into	Ward Transfers needed
CON	9,398	3,638	0	5,760	Transfer in 67.8% (= 5760 / 8497) of ward's transfer pool votes
LAB	12,479	9,742	0	2,737	Transfer in 32.2% (= 2737 / 8497) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB	6,723	7,362	639	0	Transfer away 8.7% (= 639 / 7362) of ward's LIB votes
NAT	3,730	6,917	3,187	0	Transfer away 46.1% (= 3187 / 6917) of ward's NAT votes
OTH	1,327	5,996	4,669	0	Transfer away 77.9% (= 4669 / 5996) of ward's OTH votes
Total	33,657	33,655	8,497	8,497

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

New seat: Aberconwy

District	Ward	Electorate 2005	Old Seat	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	NAT Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Conwy	Betws-y-Coed	1,026	Meirionnydd Nant Conwy	Aberconwy	199	72	144	183	27	628
Conwy	Bryn	1,383	Conwy	Aberconwy	13	627	205	0	0	846
Conwy	Caerhun	1,560	Conwy	Aberconwy	374	423	0	0	156	955
Conwy	Capelulo	1,209	Conwy	Aberconwy	309	253	112	0	64	739
Conwy	Conwy	3,233	Conwy	Aberconwy	715	634	181	304	140	1,977
Conwy	Craig-y-Don	2,837	Conwy	Aberconwy	878	195	376	254	30	1,736
Conwy	Crwst	1,563	Meirionnydd Nant Conwy	Aberconwy	0	452	0	505	0	957
Conwy	Deganwy	3,197	Conwy	Aberconwy	937	412	548	0	57	1,956
Conwy	Eglwysbach	1,224	Meirionnydd Nant Conwy	Aberconwy	292	241	142	32	40	749
Conwy	Gogarth	3,042	Conwy	Aberconwy	908	546	288	0	117	1,861
Conwy	Gower	858	Meirionnydd Nant Conwy	Aberconwy	4	57	62	399	0	525
Conwy	Llansanffraid	1,860	Conwy	Aberconwy	66	31	1,039	0	0	1,138
Conwy	Marl	2,976	Conwy	Aberconwy	51	973	796	0	0	1,821
Conwy	Mostyn (Conwy)	2,700	Conwy	Aberconwy	418	908	253	0	70	1,651
Conwy	Pandy	1,428	Conwy	Aberconwy	95	215	448	114	0	874
Conwy	Pant-yr-afon/Penmaenan	2,067	Conwy	Aberconwy	201	859	183	0	19	1,264
Conwy	Penrhyn	3,825	Conwy	Aberconwy	1,218	619	257	0	244	2,340
Conwy	Pensarn	2,091	Conwy	Aberconwy	195	330	468	285	0	1,280
Conwy	Trefriw	1,051	Meirionnydd Nant Conwy	Aberconwy	147	42	71	361	20	643
Conwy	Tudno	3,597	Conwy	Aberconwy	895	953	0	129	222	2,201
Conwy	Uwch Conwy	1,249	Meirionnydd Nant Conwy	Aberconwy	0	0	0	764	0	764
	Total			Aberconwy	7,925	8,851	5,581	3,334	1,211	26,905

And these are the implied results for 2005 for the new seat of Aberconwy.