Aldershot: New Boundaries Calculation

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2005 had the new boundaries for Aldershot been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2005. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Due to changes in ward boundaries, some new wards are divided among several old constituencies (though never between two new constituencies). Such wards are shown divided into several parts, called [1], [2], and so on.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election from 2003, 2004 or 2006. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed. Where zero votes are shown, the ward is not needed because the entire old seat is unsplit.

Calculation method: There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% of its votes from each ward. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done on a ward-by-ward basis using these common percentages.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

The old seat(s) needed are:

Aldershot
Hampshire North East

Old seat: Aldershot

The main table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the old seat of Aldershot. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results, and the third block has the transfer-adjusted results. Details of the transfer calculation are given below this table.

Actual Results Turnout-adjusted Results Transfer-adjusted Results

District Ward Electorate
2005 Old Seat New Seat CON
Votes LAB
Votes LIB
Votes OTH
Votes CON
Votes LAB
Votes LIB
Votes OTH
Votes Total
Votes CON
Votes LAB
Votes LIB
Votes OTH
Votes Total
Votes
Hart Blackwater and Hawley [1] 3,310 Aldershot Aldershot 562 53 921 0 751 71 1,231 0 2,053 820 221 1,010 0 2,053

Hart Fleet North [1] 717 Aldershot Hampshire North East 850 0 672 0 248 0 196 0 444 259 24 160 0 444

Hart Frogmore and Darby Green 4,023 Aldershot Aldershot 326 85 992 0 580 151 1,764 0 2,495 679 367 1,448 0 2,495

Hart Hartley Wintney [1] 0 Aldershot Hampshire North East 0 0 438 1,220 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hart Yateley East 3,927 Aldershot Hampshire North East 438 107 784 80 757 185 1,355 138 2,435 840 366 1,112 115 2,435

Hart Yateley North 3,770 Aldershot Hampshire North East 436 61 944 0 707 99 1,531 0 2,337 793 286 1,256 0 2,337

Hart Yateley West 3,874 Aldershot Hampshire North East 421 127 746 0 781 236 1,385 0 2,402 859 405 1,137 0 2,402

Rushmoor Cove and Southwood 4,163 Aldershot Aldershot 704 117 742 0 1,163 193 1,225 0 2,581 1,232 343 1,005 0 2,581

Rushmoor Empress 4,380 Aldershot Aldershot 886 184 469 434 1,220 253 646 597 2,716 1,286 397 530 501 2,716

Rushmoor Fernhill 4,016 Aldershot Aldershot 734 159 340 203 1,273 276 590 352 2,491 1,324 386 484 295 2,491

Rushmoor Grange 3,905 Aldershot Aldershot 591 302 351 201 990 506 588 337 2,421 1,040 615 482 282 2,421

Rushmoor Heron Wood 4,289 Aldershot Aldershot 454 489 577 0 794 856 1,009 0 2,659 850 979 828 0 2,659

Rushmoor Knellwood 4,042 Aldershot Aldershot 1,043 208 517 0 1,478 295 733 0 2,506 1,519 384 601 0 2,506

Rushmoor Manor Park 4,299 Aldershot Aldershot 749 177 793 0 1,161 274 1,230 0 2,665 1,230 424 1,009 0 2,665

Rushmoor Mayfield 3,895 Aldershot Aldershot 239 173 630 183 471 341 1,242 361 2,415 559 532 1,019 303 2,415

Rushmoor North Town 4,241 Aldershot Aldershot 421 787 163 98 754 1,409 292 175 2,630 779 1,463 239 146 2,630

Rushmoor Rowhill 3,976 Aldershot Aldershot 881 352 237 152 1,339 535 360 231 2,465 1,370 604 295 193 2,465

Rushmoor St. John's 4,214 Aldershot Aldershot 924 212 361 0 1,613 370 630 0 2,613 1,648 447 517 0 2,613

Rushmoor St. Mark's 4,367 Aldershot Aldershot 770 169 758 0 1,229 270 1,209 0 2,708 1,297 418 992 0 2,708

Rushmoor Wellinhgton 4,170 Aldershot Aldershot 453 291 139 118 1,170 752 359 305 2,586 1,205 829 294 256 2,586

Rushmoor Westheath 4,066 Aldershot Aldershot 599 154 656 270 899 231 985 405 2,520 975 396 808 340 2,520

Total Aldershot 19,378 7,303 18,560 2,901 48,142 20,572 9,895 15,237 2,436 48,142

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Aldershot at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

Party General
Election 2005
Votes Local Election
Turnout-adjusted
Votes Votes to
transfer
away Votes to
transfer
into Ward Transfers needed

CON 20,572 19,378 0 1,194 Transfer in 31.5% (= 1194 / 3786) of ward's transfer pool votes

LAB 9,895 7,303 0 2,592 Transfer in 68.5% (= 2592 / 3786) of ward's transfer pool votes

LIB 15,238 18,560 3,322 0 Transfer away 17.9% (= 3322 / 18560) of ward's LIB votes

OTH 2,436 2,901 465 0 Transfer away 16.0% (= 465 / 2901) of ward's OTH votes

Total 48,141 48,142 3,786 3,786

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

Old seat: Hampshire North East

The main table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the old seat of Hampshire North East. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results, and the third block has the transfer-adjusted results. Details of the transfer calculation are given below this table.

Actual Results Turnout-adjusted Results Transfer-adjusted Results

District Ward Electorate
2005 Old Seat New Seat CON
Votes LAB
Votes LIB
Votes OTH
Votes CON
Votes LAB
Votes LIB
Votes OTH
Votes Total
Votes CON
Votes LAB
Votes LIB
Votes OTH
Votes Total
Votes
East Hampshire Binsted and Bentley 2,195 Hampshire North East Hampshire East -1 0 0 0 1,431 0 0 0 1,431 1,431 0 0 0 1,431

East Hampshire Bramshott and Liphook 6,242 Hampshire North East Hampshire East 3,257 197 1,673 141 2,515 152 1,292 109 4,068 2,533 314 1,202 17 4,068

East Hampshire Grayshott 1,922 Hampshire North East Hampshire East 647 0 0 114 1,065 0 0 188 1,253 1,080 141 0 30 1,253

East Hampshire Headley 4,371 Hampshire North East Hampshire East 1,962 133 634 0 2,048 139 662 0 2,849 2,052 180 616 0 2,849

East Hampshire Holybourne and Froyle [2] 507 Hampshire North East Hampshire East 511 76 211 132 182 27 75 47 331 186 67 69 7 331

East Hampshire Lindford 1,797 Hampshire North East Hampshire East 349 0 163 0 798 0 373 0 1,171 800 23 347 0 1,171

East Hampshire Selborne 1,780 Hampshire North East Hampshire East 418 0 385 0 604 0 556 0 1,160 607 34 517 0 1,160

East Hampshire Whitehill Chase 1,810 Hampshire North East Hampshire East 101 0 317 0 285 0 895 0 1,180 291 55 833 0 1,180

East Hampshire Whitehill Deadwater 2,023 Hampshire North East Hampshire East 158 0 247 0 514 0 804 0 1,318 519 50 748 0 1,318

East Hampshire Whitehill Hogmoor 1,741 Hampshire North East Hampshire East 130 0 349 0 308 0 827 0 1,135 313 51 769 0 1,135

East Hampshire Whitehill Pinewood 1,830 Hampshire North East Hampshire East 103 0 153 0 480 0 713 0 1,193 485 44 663 0 1,193

East Hampshire Whitehill Walldown 1,729 Hampshire North East Hampshire East 119 0 504 0 215 0 912 0 1,127 221 56 848 0 1,127

Hart Blackwater and Hawley [2] 0 Hampshire North East Aldershot 562 53 921 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hart Church Crookham East 3,732 Hampshire North East Hampshire North East 735 0 0 907 1,089 0 0 1,344 2,433 1,203 1,011 0 218 2,433

Hart Church Crookham West 3,701 Hampshire North East Hampshire North East 528 0 0 921 879 0 0 1,533 2,412 1,009 1,154 0 248 2,412

Hart Crondall 2,814 Hampshire North East Hampshire North East 671 0 0 671 917 0 0 917 1,834 994 690 0 148 1,834

Hart Eversley 1,975 Hampshire North East Hampshire North East -1 0 0 0 1,287 0 0 0 1,287 1,287 0 0 0 1,287

Hart Fleet Central 3,927 Hampshire North East Hampshire North East 823 0 0 757 1,333 0 0 1,226 2,559 1,437 922 0 199 2,559

Hart Fleet Courtmoor 3,754 Hampshire North East Hampshire North East 812 0 848 0 1,197 0 1,250 0 2,447 1,205 77 1,163 0 2,447

Hart Fleet North [2] 2,932 Hampshire North East Hampshire North East 850 0 672 0 1,067 0 844 0 1,911 1,072 52 785 0 1,911

Hart Fleet Pondtail 3,590 Hampshire North East Hampshire North East 549 0 1,192 0 738 0 1,602 0 2,340 749 99 1,491 0 2,340

Hart Fleet West 3,673 Hampshire North East Hampshire North East 762 0 262 515 1,185 0 408 801 2,394 1,255 628 379 130 2,394

Hart Hartley Wintney [2] 3,750 Hampshire North East Hampshire North East 0 0 438 1,220 0 0 646 1,799 2,445 157 1,394 601 292 2,445

Hart Hook 5,613 Hampshire North East Hampshire North East 1,211 0 733 198 2,068 0 1,252 338 3,658 2,105 332 1,165 54 3,658

Hart Long Sutton 1,669 Hampshire North East Hampshire North East 452 0 92 91 774 0 158 156 1,088 788 127 147 25 1,088

Hart Odiham 3,472 Hampshire North East Hampshire North East 1,031 0 351 73 1,604 0 546 114 2,264 1,617 119 508 18 2,264

Total Hampshire North East 24,583 318 13,815 8,572 47,288 25,407 7,630 12,858 1,392 47,288

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Hampshire North East at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

Party General
Election 2005
Votes Local Election
Turnout-adjusted
Votes Votes to
transfer
away Votes to
transfer
into Ward Transfers needed

CON 25,407 24,583 0 824 Transfer in 10.1% (= 824 / 8136) of ward's transfer pool votes

LAB 7,630 318 0 7,312 Transfer in 89.9% (= 7312 / 8136) of ward's transfer pool votes

LIB 12,858 13,815 957 0 Transfer away 6.9% (= 957 / 13815) of ward's LIB votes

OTH 1,392 8,572 7,180 0 Transfer away 83.8% (= 7180 / 8572) of ward's OTH votes

Total 47,287 47,288 8,136 8,136

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

New seat: Aldershot

The new seat of Aldershot is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

District Ward Electorate
2005 Old Seat New Seat CON
Votes LAB
Votes LIB
Votes OTH
Votes Total
Votes

Hart Blackwater and Hawley [1] 3,310 Aldershot Aldershot 820 221 1,010 0 2,053

Hart Blackwater and Hawley [2] 0 Hampshire North East Aldershot 0 0 0 0 0

Rushmoor Cove and Southwood 4,163 Aldershot Aldershot 1,232 343 1,005 0 2,581

Rushmoor Empress 4,380 Aldershot Aldershot 1,286 397 530 501 2,716

Rushmoor Fernhill 4,016 Aldershot Aldershot 1,324 386 484 295 2,491

Hart Frogmore and Darby Green 4,023 Aldershot Aldershot 679 367 1,448 0 2,495

Rushmoor Grange 3,905 Aldershot Aldershot 1,040 615 482 282 2,421

Rushmoor Heron Wood 4,289 Aldershot Aldershot 850 979 828 0 2,659

Rushmoor Knellwood 4,042 Aldershot Aldershot 1,519 384 601 0 2,506

Rushmoor Manor Park 4,299 Aldershot Aldershot 1,230 424 1,009 0 2,665

Rushmoor Mayfield 3,895 Aldershot Aldershot 559 532 1,019 303 2,415

Rushmoor North Town 4,241 Aldershot Aldershot 779 1,463 239 146 2,630

Rushmoor Rowhill 3,976 Aldershot Aldershot 1,370 604 295 193 2,465

Rushmoor St. John's 4,214 Aldershot Aldershot 1,648 447 517 0 2,613

Rushmoor St. Mark's 4,367 Aldershot Aldershot 1,297 418 992 0 2,708

Rushmoor Wellinhgton 4,170 Aldershot Aldershot 1,205 829 294 256 2,586

Rushmoor Westheath 4,066 Aldershot Aldershot 975 396 808 340 2,520

Total Aldershot 17,820 8,813 11,570 2,320 40,524

And these are the implied results for 2005 for the new seat of Aldershot.

					Actual Results				Turnout-adjusted Results					Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2005	Old Seat	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Hart	Blackwater and Hawley [1]	3,310	Aldershot	Aldershot	562	53	921	0	751	71	1,231	0	2,053	820	221	1,010	0	2,053
Hart	Fleet North [1]	717	Aldershot	Hampshire North East	850	0	672	0	248	0	196	0	444	259	24	160	0	444
Hart	Frogmore and Darby Green	4,023	Aldershot	Aldershot	326	85	992	0	580	151	1,764	0	2,495	679	367	1,448	0	2,495
Hart	Hartley Wintney [1]	0	Aldershot	Hampshire North East	0	0	438	1,220	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Hart	Yateley East	3,927	Aldershot	Hampshire North East	438	107	784	80	757	185	1,355	138	2,435	840	366	1,112	115	2,435
Hart	Yateley North	3,770	Aldershot	Hampshire North East	436	61	944	0	707	99	1,531	0	2,337	793	286	1,256	0	2,337
Hart	Yateley West	3,874	Aldershot	Hampshire North East	421	127	746	0	781	236	1,385	0	2,402	859	405	1,137	0	2,402
Rushmoor	Cove and Southwood	4,163	Aldershot	Aldershot	704	117	742	0	1,163	193	1,225	0	2,581	1,232	343	1,005	0	2,581
Rushmoor	Empress	4,380	Aldershot	Aldershot	886	184	469	434	1,220	253	646	597	2,716	1,286	397	530	501	2,716
Rushmoor	Fernhill	4,016	Aldershot	Aldershot	734	159	340	203	1,273	276	590	352	2,491	1,324	386	484	295	2,491
Rushmoor	Grange	3,905	Aldershot	Aldershot	591	302	351	201	990	506	588	337	2,421	1,040	615	482	282	2,421
Rushmoor	Heron Wood	4,289	Aldershot	Aldershot	454	489	577	0	794	856	1,009	0	2,659	850	979	828	0	2,659
Rushmoor	Knellwood	4,042	Aldershot	Aldershot	1,043	208	517	0	1,478	295	733	0	2,506	1,519	384	601	0	2,506
Rushmoor	Manor Park	4,299	Aldershot	Aldershot	749	177	793	0	1,161	274	1,230	0	2,665	1,230	424	1,009	0	2,665
Rushmoor	Mayfield	3,895	Aldershot	Aldershot	239	173	630	183	471	341	1,242	361	2,415	559	532	1,019	303	2,415
Rushmoor	North Town	4,241	Aldershot	Aldershot	421	787	163	98	754	1,409	292	175	2,630	779	1,463	239	146	2,630
Rushmoor	Rowhill	3,976	Aldershot	Aldershot	881	352	237	152	1,339	535	360	231	2,465	1,370	604	295	193	2,465
Rushmoor	St. John's	4,214	Aldershot	Aldershot	924	212	361	0	1,613	370	630	0	2,613	1,648	447	517	0	2,613
Rushmoor	St. Mark's	4,367	Aldershot	Aldershot	770	169	758	0	1,229	270	1,209	0	2,708	1,297	418	992	0	2,708
Rushmoor	Wellinhgton	4,170	Aldershot	Aldershot	453	291	139	118	1,170	752	359	305	2,586	1,205	829	294	256	2,586
Rushmoor	Westheath	4,066	Aldershot	Aldershot	599	154	656	270	899	231	985	405	2,520	975	396	808	340	2,520
	Total		Aldershot						19,378	7,303	18,560	2,901	48,142	20,572	9,895	15,237	2,436	48,142

Party	General Election 2005 Votes	Local Election Turnout-adjusted Votes	Votes to transfer away	Votes to transfer into	Ward Transfers needed
CON	20,572	19,378	0	1,194	Transfer in 31.5% (= 1194 / 3786) of ward's transfer pool votes
LAB	9,895	7,303	0	2,592	Transfer in 68.5% (= 2592 / 3786) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB	15,238	18,560	3,322	0	Transfer away 17.9% (= 3322 / 18560) of ward's LIB votes
OTH	2,436	2,901	465	0	Transfer away 16.0% (= 465 / 2901) of ward's OTH votes
Total	48,141	48,142	3,786	3,786