Alyn and Deeside: New Boundaries Calculation

Due to changes in ward boundaries, some new wards are divided among several old constituencies (though never between two new constituencies). Such wards are shown divided into several parts, called [1], [2], and so on.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election from 2003, 2004 or 2006. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed. Where zero votes are shown, the ward is not needed because the entire old seat is unsplit.

Calculation method: There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% of its votes from each ward. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done on a ward-by-ward basis using these common percentages.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

The old seat(s) needed are:

• Alyn and Deeside

Old seat: Alyn and Deeside

					Actual Results					Turnout-adjusted Results						Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2005	Old Seat	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	NAT Votes	OTH Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	NAT Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	NAT Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Flintshire	Aston	2,651	Alyn and Deeside	Alyn and Deeside	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Broughton North East	1,546	Alyn and Deeside	Alyn and Deeside	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Broughton South	2,841	Alyn and Deeside	Alyn and Deeside	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Buckley Bistre East	2,801	Alyn and Deeside	Alyn and Deeside	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Buckley Bistre West	3,339	Alyn and Deeside	Alyn and Deeside	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Buckley Mountain	2,007	Alyn and Deeside	Alyn and Deeside	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Buckley Pentrobin	3,344	Alyn and Deeside	Alyn and Deeside	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Caergwrle	1,285	Alyn and Deeside	Alyn and Deeside	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Connah's Quay Central	2,525	Alyn and Deeside	Alyn and Deeside	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Connah's Quay Golftyn	3,883	Alyn and Deeside	Alyn and Deeside	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Connah's Quay South	4,226	Alyn and Deeside	Alyn and Deeside	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Connah's Quay Wepre	1,659	Alyn and Deeside	Alyn and Deeside	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Ewloe	3,706	Alyn and Deeside	Alyn and Deeside	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Hawarden	1,574	Alyn and Deeside	Alyn and Deeside	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Higher Kinnerton	1,281	Alyn and Deeside	Alyn and Deeside	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Hope	1,964	Alyn and Deeside	Alyn and Deeside	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Llanfynydd	1,386	Alyn and Deeside	Alyn and Deeside	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Mancot	2,586	Alyn and Deeside	Alyn and Deeside	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Penyffordd	2,942	Alyn and Deeside	Alyn and Deeside	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Queensferry	1,371	Alyn and Deeside	Alyn and Deeside	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Saltney Mold Junction	988	Alyn and Deeside	Alyn and Deeside	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Saltney Stonebridge	2,536	Alyn and Deeside	Alyn and Deeside	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Sealand	1,980	Alyn and Deeside	Alyn and Deeside	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Shotton East	1,349	Alyn and Deeside	Alyn and Deeside	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Shotton Higher	1,752	Alyn and Deeside	Alyn and Deeside	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Shotton West	1,523	Alyn and Deeside	Alyn and Deeside	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Treuddyn	1,286	Alyn and Deeside	Alyn and Deeside	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	Total		Alyn and Deeside							0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Alyn and Deeside at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

Party	General Election 2005 Votes	Local Election Turnout-adjusted Votes	Votes to transfer away	Votes to transfer into	Ward Transfers needed
CON	8,953	0	0	8,953	Transfer in 25.2% (= 8953 / 35496) of ward's transfer pool votes
LAB	17,331	0	0	17,331	Transfer in 48.8% (= 17331 / 35496) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB	6,174	0	0	6,174	Transfer in 17.4% (= 6174 / 35496) of ward's transfer pool votes
NAT	1,320	0	0	1,320	Transfer in 3.7% (= 1320 / 35496) of ward's transfer pool votes
OTH	1,718	0	0	1,718	Transfer in 4.8% (= 1718 / 35496) of ward's transfer pool votes
Total	35,496	0	35,496	35,496

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

New seat: Alyn and Deeside

District	Ward	Electorate 2005	Old Seat	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	NAT Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Flintshire	Aston	2,651	Alyn and Deeside	Alyn and Deeside	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Broughton North East	1,546	Alyn and Deeside	Alyn and Deeside	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Broughton South	2,841	Alyn and Deeside	Alyn and Deeside	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Buckley Bistre East	2,801	Alyn and Deeside	Alyn and Deeside	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Buckley Bistre West	3,339	Alyn and Deeside	Alyn and Deeside	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Buckley Mountain	2,007	Alyn and Deeside	Alyn and Deeside	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Buckley Pentrobin	3,344	Alyn and Deeside	Alyn and Deeside	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Caergwrle	1,285	Alyn and Deeside	Alyn and Deeside	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Connah's Quay Central	2,525	Alyn and Deeside	Alyn and Deeside	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Connah's Quay Golftyn	3,883	Alyn and Deeside	Alyn and Deeside	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Connah's Quay South	4,226	Alyn and Deeside	Alyn and Deeside	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Connah's Quay Wepre	1,659	Alyn and Deeside	Alyn and Deeside	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Ewloe	3,706	Alyn and Deeside	Alyn and Deeside	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Hawarden	1,574	Alyn and Deeside	Alyn and Deeside	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Higher Kinnerton	1,281	Alyn and Deeside	Alyn and Deeside	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Hope	1,964	Alyn and Deeside	Alyn and Deeside	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Llanfynydd	1,386	Alyn and Deeside	Alyn and Deeside	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Mancot	2,586	Alyn and Deeside	Alyn and Deeside	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Penyffordd	2,942	Alyn and Deeside	Alyn and Deeside	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Queensferry	1,371	Alyn and Deeside	Alyn and Deeside	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Saltney Mold Junction	988	Alyn and Deeside	Alyn and Deeside	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Saltney Stonebridge	2,536	Alyn and Deeside	Alyn and Deeside	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Sealand	1,980	Alyn and Deeside	Alyn and Deeside	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Shotton East	1,349	Alyn and Deeside	Alyn and Deeside	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Shotton Higher	1,752	Alyn and Deeside	Alyn and Deeside	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Shotton West	1,523	Alyn and Deeside	Alyn and Deeside	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Treuddyn	1,286	Alyn and Deeside	Alyn and Deeside	0	0	0	0	0	0
	Total			Alyn and Deeside	0	0	0	0	0	0

This seat was actually unchanged by the Boundary Commission, so these calculations are shown for information only. The actual general election result for 2005 should be used for this seat.