Arundel and South Downs: New Boundaries Calculation

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2005 had the new boundaries for Arundel and South Downs been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2005. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Due to changes in ward boundaries, some new wards are divided among several old constituencies (though never between two new constituencies). Such wards are shown divided into several parts, called [1], [2], and so on.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election from 2003, 2004 or 2006. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed. Where zero votes are shown, the ward is not needed because the entire old seat is unsplit.

Calculation method: There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% of its votes from each ward. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done on a ward-by-ward basis using these common percentages.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Horsham

The main table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the old seat of Horsham. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results, and the third block has the transfer-adjusted results. Details of the transfer calculation are given below this table.

 Actual ResultsTurnout-adjusted Results Transfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2005
Old SeatNew Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
OTH
Votes
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ChichesterPetworth [2]840HorshamArundel and South Downs1,76009190376019605723776212010572
ChichesterPlaistow [2]2,624HorshamChichester1,344078001,131065701,7881,136209405361,788
ChichesterWisborough Green1,914HorshamArundel and South Downs48102990804050001,304808159308271,304
HorshamBillingshurst and Shipley [2]6,592HorshamHorsham2,3151972,0505002,0541751,8194444,4922,0687551,1225454,492
HorshamBroadbridge Heath2,258HorshamHorsham253148315054431867701,539549534417371,539
HorshamCowfold, Shermanbury and West Grinstead [2]1,471HorshamArundel and South Downs1,60912951007175822701,002718130140121,002
HorshamDenne3,882HorshamHorsham1,1791231,33401,1831231,33902,6451,193550826742,645
HorshamForest2,764HorshamHorsham458587420686871,11101,884694441685611,884
HorshamHolbrook East4,066HorshamHorsham1,1821081,1402011,2451141,2012122,7721,2544977402782,772
HorshamHolbrook West4,182HorshamHorsham1,2981391,2552381,2631351,2212312,8501,2725247532992,850
HorshamHorsham Park5,822HorshamHorsham1,1281972,8414949601682,4194213,9689799401,4925553,968
HorshamItchingfield, Slinfold and Warnham4,188HorshamHorsham1,77701,71201,45401,40002,8541,465446863782,854
HorshamNuthurst2,229HorshamHorsham610023001,103041601,5191,106132256231,519
HorshamRoffey North4,783HorshamHorsham1,2711591,5273261,2621581,5163243,2601,2746419354083,260
HorshamRoffey South4,590HorshamHorsham690971,2322379571341,7083293,1289706791,0534243,128
HorshamRudgwick2,082HorshamHorsham42801830994042501,419997135262231,419
HorshamRusper and Colgate1,954HorshamHorsham463013501,031030101,3321,03396185161,332
HorshamSouthwater6,926HorshamHorsham2,8751793,66402,0201262,57404,7202,0409471,5881434,720
HorshamTrafalgar4,608HorshamHorsham1,2681682,23901,0831441,91303,1401,0987541,1801063,140
Mid SussexArdingly and Balcombe [1]2,645HorshamHorsham1,574055001,336046701,8031,339149288261,803
Mid SussexBolney [2]418HorshamSussex Mid6035911236212213913285212332415285
Mid SussexCopthorne and Worth3,573HorshamHorsham-20002,4350002,4352,4350002,435
Mid SussexCrawley Down and Turners Hill5,269HorshamHorsham2,39301,74502,07601,51403,5902,088483934843,590
Mid SussexCuckfield [1]287HorshamSussex Mid1,404050630012404527196124142729196
 Total Horsham     27,0501,76123,6852,00154,49727,2409,32114,6123,32254,497

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Horsham at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

PartyGeneral
Election 2005
Votes
Local Election
Turnout-adjusted
Votes
Votes to
transfer
away
Votes to
transfer
into
Ward Transfers needed
CON27,24027,0500190Transfer in 2.1% (= 190 / 9070) of ward's transfer pool votes
LAB9,3201,76107,559Transfer in 83.3% (= 7559 / 9070) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB14,61323,6859,0720Transfer away 38.3% (= 9072 / 23685) of ward's LIB votes
OTH3,3222,00101,321Transfer in 14.6% (= 1321 / 9070) of ward's transfer pool votes
Total54,49554,4979,0709,070 

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

Old seat: Chichester

The main table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the old seat of Chichester. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results, and the third block has the transfer-adjusted results. Details of the transfer calculation are given below this table.

 Actual ResultsTurnout-adjusted Results Transfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2005
Old SeatNew Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
OTH
Votes
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ChichesterBosham3,289ChichesterChichester1,27204417661,11903886742,1811,2752562873612,181
ChichesterBoxgrove1,713ChichesterChichester3580431544830581731,137553114430391,137
ChichesterBury [2]565ChichesterArundel and South Downs481020502630112037527418820375
ChichesterChichester East5,656ChichesterChichester5874881,9274386405322,1024783,7529301,0081,5552563,752
ChichesterChichester North4,541ChichesterChichester2,0863372,8663781,1091791,5232013,0121,2944821,1271073,012
ChichesterChichester South4,974ChichesterChichester1,0785192,3703088324011,8292383,3001,0537641,3531273,300
ChichesterChichester West3,794ChichesterChichester4142811,2832054773241,4792362,5166646301,0941262,516
ChichesterDonnington1,707ChichesterChichester3564631205657349501,13361315236601,133
ChichesterEasebourne1,900ChichesterChichester33103440618064201,26068110347501,260
ChichesterEast Wittering3,775ChichesterChichester9364094852571,1234915823082,5041,2346734301652,504
ChichesterFernhurst3,716ChichesterChichester1,01101,31145089901,1664002,4651,0843038622142,465
ChichesterFishbourne1,685ChichesterChichester22306070300081701,11738013160401,117
ChichesterFuntington2,124ChichesterChichester54202430973043601,4091,0157032201,409
ChichesterHarting1,671ChichesterChichester000-10001,1081,10819431805941,108
ChichesterLavant1,637ChichesterChichester16404420294079201,08637112758601,086
ChichesterMidhurst3,836ChichesterChichester1,265098501,43101,11402,5451,54017982402,545
ChichesterNorth Mundham1,673ChichesterChichester29203680491061901,1105519945801,110
ChichesterPetworth [1]2,889ChichesterArundel and South Downs1,760091901,259065701,9161,32310648601,916
ChichesterPlaistow [1]1,055ChichesterChichester1,3440780044302570700468411900700
ChichesterRogate2,007ChichesterChichester53102548980903871361,332870101286721,332
ChichesterSelsey North4,853ChichesterChichester1,9661,32202911,7681,18902623,2191,8141,26401403,219
ChichesterSelsey South3,448ChichesterChichester1,11863603211,23270103542,2871,29480201892,287
ChichesterSidlesham1,814ChichesterChichester07929524801535714801,2041403834222571,204
ChichesterSouthbourne5,358ChichesterChichester2,1614531,8371701,6623481,4131313,5541,8246131,045703,554
ChichesterStedham1,815ChichesterChichester54702600816038801,2048546228701,204
ChichesterTangmere1,740ChichesterChichester2043325804767760201,15553517444501,155
ChichesterWest Wittering4,043ChichesterChichester1,7811886314181,5831675613712,6821,7033644151992,682
ChichesterWestbourne1,722ChichesterChichester391122010172722701881,14276028101001,142
 Total Chichester     22,3924,86219,5135,63852,40525,3039,63414,4423,02552,405

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Chichester at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

PartyGeneral
Election 2005
Votes
Local Election
Turnout-adjusted
Votes
Votes to
transfer
away
Votes to
transfer
into
Ward Transfers needed
CON25,30222,39202,910Transfer in 37.9% (= 2910 / 7680) of ward's transfer pool votes
LAB9,6324,86204,770Transfer in 62.1% (= 4770 / 7680) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB14,44219,5135,0710Transfer away 26.0% (= 5071 / 19513) of ward's LIB votes
OTH3,0255,6382,6130Transfer away 46.3% (= 2613 / 5638) of ward's OTH votes
Total52,40152,4057,6807,680 

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

Old seat: Sussex Mid

The main table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the old seat of Sussex Mid. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results, and the third block has the transfer-adjusted results. Details of the transfer calculation are given below this table.

 Actual ResultsTurnout-adjusted Results Transfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2005
Old SeatNew Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
OTH
Votes
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Mid SussexArdingly and Balcombe [2]1,217Sussex MidHorsham1,5740550063202210853649391567853
Mid SussexAshurst Wood2,008Sussex MidSussex Mid23404850458094901,407532169671331,407
Mid SussexBurgess Hill Dunstall [2]2,777Sussex MidSussex Mid902077301,047089801,9451,117160635311,945
Mid SussexBurgess Hill Franklands3,746Sussex MidSussex Mid1,357090901,57101,05202,6231,653187744362,623
Mid SussexBurgess Hill Leylands3,637Sussex MidSussex Mid52301,422068501,86202,5478303321,317652,547
Mid SussexBurgess Hill Meeds [2]3,317Sussex MidSussex Mid67201,316078501,53802,3239052741,088542,323
Mid SussexBurgess Hill St Andrews3,391Sussex MidSussex Mid32901,085055301,82202,3756953251,289632,375
Mid SussexBurgess Hill Victoria [2]2,853Sussex MidSussex Mid5880922077801,22001,998873217863421,998
Mid SussexCuckfield [2]3,241Sussex MidSussex Mid1,40405063001,44205203082,2701,482923683262,270
Mid SussexEast Grinstead Ashplats3,820Sussex MidSussex Mid86201,07701,18901,48602,6751,3052651,051522,675
Mid SussexEast Grinstead Baldwins3,666Sussex MidSussex Mid68001,00801,03401,53302,5671,1542731,085532,567
Mid SussexEast Grinstead Herontye3,565Sussex MidSussex Mid-20-201,24801,24802,4961,345222883432,496
Mid SussexEast Grinstead Imberhorne3,192Sussex MidSussex Mid89301,189095901,27702,2361,059228903442,236
Mid SussexEast Grinstead Town3,161Sussex MidSussex Mid1670512054401,66902,2136742981,181582,213
Mid SussexHassocks [2]0Sussex MidArundel and South Downs3,6516262,30800000000000
Mid SussexHaywards Heath Ashenground3,735Sussex MidSussex Mid84801,490094901,66702,6161,0792971,179582,616
Mid SussexHaywards Heath Bentswood3,736Sussex MidSussex Mid6471,24235807531,44641702,6167851,520295142,616
Mid SussexHaywards Heath Franklands3,420Sussex MidSussex Mid1,06926765401,28732178702,3951,348461557272,395
Mid SussexHaywards Heath Heath3,741Sussex MidSussex Mid1,21201,56301,14401,47602,6201,2592631,044512,620
Mid SussexHaywards Heath Lucastes3,246Sussex MidSussex Mid1,33701,09001,25201,02102,2731,332182722352,273
Mid SussexHigh Weald3,803Sussex MidSussex Mid1,36609283811,36009243792,6631,4321656544112,663
Mid SussexLindfield5,401Sussex MidSussex Mid3,22302,54102,11501,66703,7822,2452971,179583,782
 Total Sussex Mid     21,7851,76725,25468749,49323,7646,27917,8751,57349,493

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Sussex Mid at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

PartyGeneral
Election 2005
Votes
Local Election
Turnout-adjusted
Votes
Votes to
transfer
away
Votes to
transfer
into
Ward Transfers needed
CON23,76521,78501,980Transfer in 26.8% (= 1980 / 7380) of ward's transfer pool votes
LAB6,2801,76704,513Transfer in 61.2% (= 4513 / 7380) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB17,87525,2547,3790Transfer away 29.2% (= 7379 / 25254) of ward's LIB votes
OTH1,5746870887Transfer in 12.0% (= 887 / 7380) of ward's transfer pool votes
Total49,49449,4937,3807,380 

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

Old seat: Arundel and South Downs

The main table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the old seat of Arundel and South Downs. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results, and the third block has the transfer-adjusted results. Details of the transfer calculation are given below this table.

 Actual ResultsTurnout-adjusted Results Transfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2005
Old SeatNew Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
OTH
Votes
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ArunAngmering5,421Arundel and South DownsArundel and South Downs2,481051203,114064303,7572,63250262103,757
ArunArundel3,421Arundel and South DownsArundel and South Downs6751074101,434609973701,2952,3715146423578562,371
ArunBarnham6,305Arundel and South DownsArundel and South Downs3,72701,46803,13501,23504,3702,6505251,19304,370
ArunFelpham East [1]94Arundel and South DownsBognor Regis and Littlehampton1,3143380571391001766322101166
ArunFindon1,905Arundel and South DownsArundel and South Downs564016601,020030001,32086216728901,320
ArunWalberton2,199Arundel and South DownsArundel and South Downs646024801,101042301,52493018440801,524
ArunYapton [1]3,284Arundel and South DownsBognor Regis and Littlehampton1,489053401,675060102,2761,41627958002,276
ChichesterBury [1]1,132Arundel and South DownsArundel and South Downs4810205055002340784465922260784
HorshamBillingshurst and Shipley [1]0Arundel and South DownsHorsham2,3151972,0505000000000000
HorshamBramber, Upper Beeding and Woodmancote4,095Arundel and South DownsArundel and South Downs1,25821360901,71729183102,8391,45158480302,839
HorshamChanctonbury6,326Arundel and South DownsArundel and South Downs2,93101,1755172,78001,1144904,3842,3506331,0763234,384
HorshamChantry7,310Arundel and South DownsArundel and South Downs4,32403,09002,95502,11205,0672,4985272,04005,067
HorshamCowfold, Shermanbury and West Grinstead [1]2,677Arundel and South DownsArundel and South Downs1,60912951001,32810642101,8551,12232540601,855
HorshamHenfield4,060Arundel and South DownsArundel and South Downs706042892596505851,2642,8148155975658352,814
HorshamPulborough and Coldwaltham4,465Arundel and South DownsArundel and South Downs1,850060102,336075903,0951,97538673303,095
HorshamSteyning4,794Arundel and South DownsArundel and South Downs02491,0571,00203581,5221,4423,32208971,4709533,322
Mid SussexBolney [1]1,597Arundel and South DownsSussex Mid603591123682481153491,107696230147321,107
Mid SussexBurgess Hill Dunstall [1]740Arundel and South DownsSussex Mid9020773027602370513233502290513
Mid SussexBurgess Hill Meeds [1]0Arundel and South DownsSussex Mid67201,31600000000000
Mid SussexBurgess Hill Victoria [1]916Arundel and South DownsSussex Mid5880922024703880635208513740635
Mid SussexHassocks [1]5,596Arundel and South DownsArundel and South Downs3,6516262,30802,1503691,35903,8781,8177461,31303,878
Mid SussexHurstpierpoint and Downs5,359Arundel and South DownsArundel and South Downs3,25084282702,45463662403,7142,0741,03660303,714
 Total Arundel and South Downs     29,2751,94813,9114,55749,69124,7528,48313,4423,01349,691

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Arundel and South Downs at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

PartyGeneral
Election 2005
Votes
Local Election
Turnout-adjusted
Votes
Votes to
transfer
away
Votes to
transfer
into
Ward Transfers needed
CON24,75229,2754,5230Transfer away 15.5% (= 4523 / 29275) of ward's CON votes
LAB8,4821,94806,534Transfer in 100.0% (= 6534 / 6534) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB13,44313,9114680Transfer away 3.4% (= 468 / 13911) of ward's LIB votes
OTH3,0134,5571,5440Transfer away 33.9% (= 1544 / 4557) of ward's OTH votes
Total49,69049,6916,5346,534 

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

New seat: Arundel and South Downs

The new seat of Arundel and South Downs is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

DistrictWardElectorate
2005
Old SeatNew Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ArunAngmering5,421Arundel and South DownsArundel and South Downs2,63250262103,757
ArunArundel3,421Arundel and South DownsArundel and South Downs5146423578562,371
ArunBarnham6,305Arundel and South DownsArundel and South Downs2,6505251,19304,370
HorshamBramber, Upper Beeding and Woodmancote4,095Arundel and South DownsArundel and South Downs1,45158480302,839
ChichesterBury [1]1,132Arundel and South DownsArundel and South Downs465922260784
ChichesterBury [2]565ChichesterArundel and South Downs27418820375
HorshamChanctonbury6,326Arundel and South DownsArundel and South Downs2,3506331,0763234,384
HorshamChantry7,310Arundel and South DownsArundel and South Downs2,4985272,04005,067
HorshamCowfold, Shermanbury and West Grinstead [1]2,677Arundel and South DownsArundel and South Downs1,12232540601,855
HorshamCowfold, Shermanbury and West Grinstead [2]1,471HorshamArundel and South Downs718130140121,002
ArunFindon1,905Arundel and South DownsArundel and South Downs86216728901,320
Mid SussexHassocks [1]5,596Arundel and South DownsArundel and South Downs1,8177461,31303,878
Mid SussexHassocks [2]0Sussex MidArundel and South Downs00000
HorshamHenfield4,060Arundel and South DownsArundel and South Downs8155975658352,814
Mid SussexHurstpierpoint and Downs5,359Arundel and South DownsArundel and South Downs2,0741,03660303,714
ChichesterPetworth [1]2,889ChichesterArundel and South Downs1,32310648601,916
ChichesterPetworth [2]840HorshamArundel and South Downs3776212010572
HorshamPulborough and Coldwaltham4,465Arundel and South DownsArundel and South Downs1,97538673303,095
HorshamSteyning4,794Arundel and South DownsArundel and South Downs08971,4709533,322
ArunWalberton2,199Arundel and South DownsArundel and South Downs93018440801,524
ChichesterWisborough Green1,914HorshamArundel and South Downs808159308271,304
 Total  Arundel and South Downs25,6668,32713,2493,02050,262

And these are the implied results for 2005 for the new seat of Arundel and South Downs.