New Boundaries 2013 Calculation

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2010 had the new boundaries for Bedfordshire South West been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2010. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Due to changes in ward boundaries, some new wards are divided among several old constituencies (and sometimes in Scotland between two new constituencies). Such wards are shown divided into several parts, called [1], [2], and so on.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2010 from the period 2007-2011. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed. Where zero votes are shown, the ward results have not yet been acquired, and the implied result is still provisional and will be improved later.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% of its votes from each ward. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done on a ward-by-ward basis using these common percentages.

List of old seats forming part of Bedfordshire South West

Old seat: Bedfordshire South West

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the old seat of Bedfordshire South West. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. Details of the transfer calculation are given below this table.

Old seat: Bedfordshire South West				Actual Results				Turnout-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Election Year	Electorate 2010	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Central Bedfordshire	Dunstable Downs	2009	11,089	7,358	2,488	3,012	1,279	3,847	1,301	1,575	669	7,392
Central Bedfordshire	Grovebury	2009	7,067	2,080	723	948	0	2,612	908	1,190	0	4,710
Central Bedfordshire	Houghton Regis	2009	11,913	3,272	1,845	6,708	735	2,069	1,166	4,241	465	7,941
Central Bedfordshire	Icknield	2009	5,219	1,959	595	892	0	1,978	601	900	0	3,479
Central Bedfordshire	Leighton Linslade Central	2009	11,276	6,996	2,001	4,677	0	3,845	1,100	2,571	0	7,516
Central Bedfordshire	Northfields	2009	5,076	1,129	893	502	1,103	1,053	833	468	1,029	3,383
Central Bedfordshire	Plantation	2009	5,929	2,494	539	977	0	2,458	531	963	0	3,952
Central Bedfordshire	South East Bedfordshire [2]	2009	1,158	3,271	504	1,124	0	515	79	177	0	771
Central Bedfordshire	South West Bedfordshire	2009	5,604	3,449	415	499	0	2,953	355	427	0	3,735
Central Bedfordshire	Southcott	2009	5,200	1,815	309	1,449	417	1,577	268	1,259	362	3,466
Central Bedfordshire	Toddington [2]	2009	1,254	2,327	313	426	1,125	464	62	85	224	835
Central Bedfordshire	Watling	2009	5,393	2,532	541	807	0	2,346	501	748	0	3,595
	Total		76,178					25,717	7,705	14,604	2,749	50,775

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Bedfordshire South West at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

Party	General Election 2010 Votes	Local Election Turnout-adjusted Votes	Votes to transfer away	Votes to transfer into	Ward Transfers needed
CON	26,815	25,717	0	1,098	Transfer in 24.7% (= 1098 / 4437) of ward's transfer pool votes
LAB	9,948	7,705	0	2,243	Transfer in 50.6% (= 2243 / 4437) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB	10,166	14,604	4,438	0	Transfer away 30.4% (= 4438 / 14604) of ward's LIB votes
OTH	3,845	2,749	0	1,096	Transfer in 24.7% (= 1096 / 4437) of ward's transfer pool votes
Total	50,774	50,775	4,437	4,437

Main table for Bedfordshire South West

The main table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Bedfordshire South West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

Old seat: Bedfordshire Mid

Old seat: Bedfordshire South West	Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2010	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Central Bedfordshire	Dunstable Downs	11,089	Luton North and Dunstable	3,965	1,543	1,096	787	7,392
Central Bedfordshire	Grovebury	7,067	Bedfordshire South West	2,701	1,091	828	89	4,710
Central Bedfordshire	Houghton Regis	11,913	Bedfordshire South West	2,388	1,818	2,952	783	7,941
Central Bedfordshire	Icknield	5,219	Luton North and Dunstable	2,046	739	626	68	3,479
Central Bedfordshire	Leighton Linslade Central	11,276	Bedfordshire South West	4,038	1,495	1,790	193	7,516
Central Bedfordshire	Northfields	5,076	Luton North and Dunstable	1,088	905	326	1,064	3,383
Central Bedfordshire	Plantation	5,929	Bedfordshire South West	2,530	679	670	72	3,952
Central Bedfordshire	South East Bedfordshire [2]	1,158	Bedfordshire Mid and Harpenden	528	106	123	13	771
Central Bedfordshire	South West Bedfordshire	5,604	Bedfordshire South West	2,985	421	297	32	3,735
Central Bedfordshire	Southcott	5,200	Bedfordshire South West	1,672	461	876	457	3,466
Central Bedfordshire	Toddington [2]	1,254	Bedfordshire South West	470	75	59	230	835
Central Bedfordshire	Watling	5,393	Luton North and Dunstable	2,402	616	521	56	3,595
	Total	76,178		26,813	9,949	10,164	3,844	50,775

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the old seat of Bedfordshire Mid. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. Details of the transfer calculation are given below this table.

Old seat: Bedfordshire Mid				Actual Results				Turnout-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Election Year	Electorate 2010	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Bedford	Turvey	2009	2,226	672	85	233	0	1,086	137	377	0	1,600
Bedford	Wilshamstead	2009	4,459	619	153	131	772	1,184	293	251	1,477	3,205
Bedford	Wootton	2009	4,139	696	153	1,689	967	591	130	1,434	821	2,976
Central Bedfordshire	Ampthill	2009	5,555	1,488	149	1,389	1,982	1,186	119	1,107	1,580	3,992
Central Bedfordshire	Barton	2009	5,749	1,898	299	2,570	0	1,645	259	2,228	0	4,132
Central Bedfordshire	Cranfield	2009	3,720	1,715	447	659	0	1,625	424	625	0	2,674
Central Bedfordshire	Flitwick East	2009	6,382	2,353	233	1,116	1,501	2,074	205	984	1,323	4,586
Central Bedfordshire	Flitwick West	2009	5,842	2,726	348	1,458	0	2,526	322	1,351	0	4,199
Central Bedfordshire	Langford and Henlow Village [1]	2009	2,303	3,464	552	1,311	0	1,076	172	407	0	1,655
Central Bedfordshire	Marston	2009	4,368	1,307	246	733	553	1,445	272	811	612	3,140
Central Bedfordshire	Maulden and Houghton Conquest	2009	5,885	2,820	263	1,760	341	2,301	215	1,436	278	4,230
Central Bedfordshire	Northill and Blunham [1]	2009	1,214	3,836	350	1,319	0	608	55	209	0	872
Central Bedfordshire	Shefford	2009	6,776	2,543	494	1,531	0	2,711	527	1,632	0	4,870
Central Bedfordshire	Silsoe and Shillington	2009	6,172	2,666	218	2,315	0	2,275	186	1,975	0	4,436
Central Bedfordshire	Toddington [1]	2009	3,927	2,327	313	426	1,125	1,567	211	287	758	2,823
Central Bedfordshire	Woburn and Harlington	2009	7,664	3,431	567	2,400	0	2,954	488	2,066	0	5,508
	Total		76,381					26,854	4,015	17,180	6,849	54,898

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Bedfordshire Mid at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

Party	General Election 2010 Votes	Local Election Turnout-adjusted Votes	Votes to transfer away	Votes to transfer into	Ward Transfers needed
CON	28,815	26,854	0	1,961	Transfer in 32.4% (= 1961 / 6054) of ward's transfer pool votes
LAB	8,108	4,015	0	4,093	Transfer in 67.6% (= 4093 / 6054) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB	13,663	17,180	3,517	0	Transfer away 20.5% (= 3517 / 17180) of ward's LIB votes
OTH	4,311	6,849	2,538	0	Transfer away 37.1% (= 2538 / 6849) of ward's OTH votes
Total	54,897	54,898	6,054	6,054

Main table for Bedfordshire Mid

The main table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Bedfordshire Mid, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.