Blackpool North and Fleetwood: New Boundaries 2013 Calculation

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2010 had the new boundaries for Blackpool North and Fleetwood been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2010. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Due to changes in ward boundaries, some new wards are divided among several old constituencies (and sometimes in Scotland between two new constituencies). Such wards are shown divided into several parts, called [1], [2], and so on.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2010 from the period 2007-2011. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed. Where zero votes are shown, the ward results have not yet been acquired, and the implied result is still provisional and will be improved later.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% of its votes from each ward. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done on a ward-by-ward basis using these common percentages.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Blackpool North and Fleetwood

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Wyre and Preston North

Workings for Wyre and Preston North

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the old seat of Wyre and Preston North. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. Details of the transfer calculation are given below this table.

Old seat: Wyre and Preston NorthActual ResultsTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
Electorate
2010
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
OTH
Votes
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
PrestonCadley20103,7309015491,27008855391,24802,672
PrestonCollege20102,79688054350963884545511632,003
PrestonGarrison20105,5551,7751,07491801,8751,13597003,980
PrestonGreyfriars20105,2762,1567411,07002,0547061,02003,780
PrestonPreston Rural East [2]20113,4561,02939814301,62362822602,477
PrestonPreston Rural North20105,4172,74948077302,66646675003,882
PrestonSharoe Green20105,0831,5389179041351,6039569421413,642
WyreBreck20112,7431,519365001,585381001,966
WyreBrock20111,934-10001,3860001,386
WyreCabus20111,3164441860066527800943
WyreCalder20111,67253500175903002951,198
WyreCarleton20113,3271,8191,043001,515869002,384
WyreCatterall20112,033-10001,4570001,457
WyreGarstang20114,0123,568632002,442433002,875
WyreGreat Eccleston20112,9031,913268001,824256002,080
WyreHambleton and Stalmine-with-Staynall20113,4602,021474002,008471002,479
WyreHardhorn20112,9272,052387001,764333002,097
WyreHigh Cross20112,9311,756540001,606494002,100
WyreNorcross20112,9321,3051,104001,138963002,101
WyreStaina20114,9104,0921,344002,648870003,518
WyreTithebarn20113,1991,83048803121,59542502722,292
 Total 71,612    34,12610,7485,66777151,312

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Wyre and Preston North at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

PartyGeneral
Election 2010
Votes
Local Election
Turnout-adjusted
Votes
Votes to
transfer
away
Votes to
transfer
into
Ward Transfers needed
CON26,87734,1267,2490Transfer away 21.2% (= 7249 / 34126) of ward's CON votes
LAB10,93210,7480184Transfer in 2.5% (= 184 / 7245) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB11,0335,66705,366Transfer in 74.1% (= 5366 / 7245) of ward's transfer pool votes
OTH2,46677101,695Transfer in 23.4% (= 1695 / 7245) of ward's transfer pool votes
Total51,30851,3127,2457,245 

Main table for Wyre and Preston North

The main table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Wyre and Preston North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Wyre and Preston NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2010
New Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
PrestonCadley3,730Preston6975441,387442,672
PrestonCollege2,796Preston6965506501072,003
PrestonGarrison5,555Preston1,4771,1451,265933,980
PrestonGreyfriars5,276Lancaster and Wyre1,6187171,3431023,780
PrestonPreston Rural East [2]3,456Lancaster and Wyre1,278637481812,477
PrestonPreston Rural North5,417Lancaster and Wyre2,1004801,1691323,882
PrestonSharoe Green5,083Preston1,2629651,1942213,642
WyreBreck2,743Fylde1,248390249791,966
WyreBrock1,934Lancaster and Wyre1,0927218691,386
WyreCabus1,316Lancaster and Wyre52428210533943
WyreCalder1,672Lancaster and Wyre71151423401,198
WyreCarleton3,327Blackpool North and Fleetwood1,193877238752,384
WyreCatterall2,033Lancaster and Wyre1,1488229721,457
WyreGarstang4,012Lancaster and Wyre1,9234463841212,875
WyreGreat Eccleston2,903Lancaster and Wyre1,437266287912,080
WyreHambleton and Stalmine-with-Staynall3,460Lancaster and Wyre1,5814823161002,479
WyreHardhorn2,927Fylde1,389343278882,097
WyreHigh Cross2,931Fylde1,265503253802,100
WyreNorcross2,932Blackpool North and Fleetwood896969179572,101
WyreStaina4,910Blackpool North and Fleetwood2,0868844171323,518
WyreTithebarn3,199Fylde1,2564342513512,292
 Total71,612 26,87710,93411,0352,46851,312

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

Old seat: Blackpool North and Cleveleys

Workings for Blackpool North and Cleveleys

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the old seat of Blackpool North and Cleveleys. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. Details of the transfer calculation are given below this table.

Old seat: Blackpool North and CleveleysActual ResultsTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
Electorate
2010
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
OTH
Votes
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BlackpoolAnchorsholme20115,3562,3091,85355401,6081,29138603,285
BlackpoolBispham20115,1992,2521,42421101,8471,16817303,188
BlackpoolClaremont20115,6888691,99615101,0052,30917503,489
BlackpoolGreenlands20115,4571,5741,7121425531,3231,4391194653,346
BlackpoolIngthorpe20115,2771,2662,14869209981,69354503,236
BlackpoolLayton20115,3791,6542,01214101,4331,74312203,298
BlackpoolNorbreck20115,2212,9321,726002,0151,186003,201
BlackpoolPark20115,3561,4162,167001,2981,987003,285
BlackpoolWarbreck20115,2541,8491,2033092971,6291,0602722623,223
WyreBourne20115,1252,7482,790001,5601,583003,143
WyreCleveleys Park20114,8003,3802,986001,5631,381002,944
WyreJubilee20113,2011,165948063683267704541,963
WyreVictoria20114,8743,8411,378002,200789002,989
 Total 66,187    19,31118,3061,7921,18140,590

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Blackpool North and Cleveleys at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

PartyGeneral
Election 2010
Votes
Local Election
Turnout-adjusted
Votes
Votes to
transfer
away
Votes to
transfer
into
Ward Transfers needed
CON16,96419,3112,3470Transfer away 12.2% (= 2347 / 19311) of ward's CON votes
LAB14,81418,3063,4920Transfer away 19.1% (= 3492 / 18306) of ward's LAB votes
LIB5,4001,79203,608Transfer in 61.8% (= 3608 / 5840) of ward's transfer pool votes
OTH3,4131,18102,232Transfer in 38.2% (= 2232 / 5840) of ward's transfer pool votes
Total40,59140,5905,8405,840 

Main table for Blackpool North and Cleveleys

The main table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Blackpool North and Cleveleys, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Blackpool North and CleveleysTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2010
New Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BlackpoolAnchorsholme5,356Blackpool North and Fleetwood1,4131,0456591693,285
BlackpoolBispham5,199Blackpool North and Fleetwood1,6239454491713,188
BlackpoolClaremont5,688Blackpool South8831,8695232153,489
BlackpoolGreenlands5,457Blackpool North and Fleetwood1,1621,1653886313,346
BlackpoolIngthorpe5,277Blackpool North and Fleetwood8771,3708191703,236
BlackpoolLayton5,379Blackpool South1,2591,4114351943,298
BlackpoolNorbreck5,221Blackpool North and Fleetwood1,7709602911803,201
BlackpoolPark5,356Blackpool North and Fleetwood1,1401,6083322053,285
BlackpoolWarbreck5,254Blackpool South1,4318585194153,223
WyreBourne5,125Blackpool North and Fleetwood1,3701,2813041883,143
WyreCleveleys Park4,800Blackpool North and Fleetwood1,3731,1182801732,944
WyreJubilee3,201Blackpool North and Fleetwood7315481425421,963
WyreVictoria4,874Blackpool North and Fleetwood1,9336382581602,989
 Total66,187 16,96514,8165,3993,41340,590

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

Old seat: Lancaster and Fleetwood

Workings for Lancaster and Fleetwood

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the old seat of Lancaster and Fleetwood. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. Details of the transfer calculation are given below this table.

Old seat: Lancaster and FleetwoodActual ResultsTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
Electorate
2010
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
OTH
Votes
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
LancasterBulk20114,9936402,24702,6563661,28401,5183,168
LancasterCastle20115,3946511,6862253,8383489021202,0523,422
LancasterDuke's20112,28612528353385214485916601,450
LancasterEllel20115,2492,1191,1713382611,8151,0032892233,330
LancasterJohn O'Gaunt20115,8081,1773,1474301,6726751,8052479593,686
LancasterLower Lune Valley20113,6511,7295051,3221611,0773158241002,316
LancasterScotforth East20113,4711,0771,2176913347158074582222,202
LancasterScotforth West20115,1961,6312,7113682,1567831,3021771,0353,297
LancasterUniversity20113,8422156831253223901,2382275842,439
WyreMount20112,9715761,22001775501,16601691,885
WyrePark20113,1629231,368008081,198002,006
WyrePharos20113,8939782,637006681,802002,470
WyrePilling20111,766523129017371017502351,120
WyrePreesall20114,6663,74565605302,24839403182,960
WyreRossall20114,7392,0372,40007461,1821,39204333,007
WyreWarren20114,6001,7872,72707259951,51904042,918
WyreWyresdale20111,61859226100712314001,026
 Total 67,305    14,25617,1012,4338,91242,702

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Lancaster and Fleetwood at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

PartyGeneral
Election 2010
Votes
Local Election
Turnout-adjusted
Votes
Votes to
transfer
away
Votes to
transfer
into
Ward Transfers needed
CON15,40414,25601,148Transfer in 16.7% (= 1148 / 6882) of ward's transfer pool votes
LAB15,07117,1012,0300Transfer away 11.9% (= 2030 / 17101) of ward's LAB votes
LIB8,1672,43305,734Transfer in 83.3% (= 5734 / 6882) of ward's transfer pool votes
OTH4,0598,9124,8530Transfer away 54.5% (= 4853 / 8912) of ward's OTH votes
Total42,70142,7026,8826,882 

Main table for Lancaster and Fleetwood

The main table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Lancaster and Fleetwood, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Lancaster and FleetwoodTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2010
New Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
LancasterBulk4,993Lancaster and Wyre5291,1328166913,168
LancasterCastle5,394Lancaster and Wyre5527951,1409353,422
LancasterDuke's2,286Lancaster and Wyre2844274383011,450
LancasterEllel5,249Lancaster and Wyre1,8558844891023,330
LancasterJohn O'Gaunt5,808Lancaster and Wyre7981,5918614373,686
LancasterLower Lune Valley3,651Morecambe and Lunesdale1,092278901462,316
LancasterScotforth East3,471Lancaster and Wyre7517116391012,202
LancasterScotforth West5,196Lancaster and Wyre9031,1477754713,297
LancasterUniversity3,842Lancaster and Wyre4681,0916142662,439
WyreMount2,971Blackpool North and Fleetwood5881,028192771,885
WyrePark3,162Blackpool North and Fleetwood8321,05611802,006
WyrePharos3,893Blackpool North and Fleetwood7041,58817802,470
WyrePilling1,766Lancaster and Wyre7351541241071,120
WyrePreesall4,666Lancaster and Wyre2,2853471831452,960
WyreRossall4,739Blackpool North and Fleetwood1,2491,2273341973,007
WyreWarren4,600Blackpool North and Fleetwood1,0621,3393341842,918
WyreWyresdale1,618Lancaster and Wyre7182773101,026
 Total67,305 15,40515,0728,1674,06042,702

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

New seat: Blackpool North and Fleetwood

The new seat of Blackpool North and Fleetwood is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Blackpool North and Fleetwood
DistrictWardElectorate
2010
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
WyreCarleton3,327Wyre and Preston North1,193877238752,384
WyreNorcross2,932Wyre and Preston North896969179572,101
WyreStaina4,910Wyre and Preston North2,0868844171323,518
BlackpoolAnchorsholme5,356Blackpool North and Cleveleys1,4131,0456591693,285
BlackpoolBispham5,199Blackpool North and Cleveleys1,6239454491713,188
BlackpoolGreenlands5,457Blackpool North and Cleveleys1,1621,1653886313,346
BlackpoolIngthorpe5,277Blackpool North and Cleveleys8771,3708191703,236
BlackpoolNorbreck5,221Blackpool North and Cleveleys1,7709602911803,201
BlackpoolPark5,356Blackpool North and Cleveleys1,1401,6083322053,285
WyreBourne5,125Blackpool North and Cleveleys1,3701,2813041883,143
WyreCleveleys Park4,800Blackpool North and Cleveleys1,3731,1182801732,944
WyreJubilee3,201Blackpool North and Cleveleys7315481425421,963
WyreVictoria4,874Blackpool North and Cleveleys1,9336382581602,989
WyreMount2,971Lancaster and Fleetwood5881,028192771,885
WyrePark3,162Lancaster and Fleetwood8321,05611802,006
WyrePharos3,893Lancaster and Fleetwood7041,58817802,470
WyreRossall4,739Lancaster and Fleetwood1,2491,2273341973,007
WyreWarren4,600Lancaster and Fleetwood1,0621,3393341842,918
 Total80,400 22,00219,6465,9123,31150,871

And these are the implied results for 2010 for the new seat of Blackpool North and Fleetwood.