Brecon and Radnorshire: New Boundaries Calculation

Due to changes in ward boundaries, some new wards are divided among several old constituencies (though never between two new constituencies). Such wards are shown divided into several parts, called [1], [2], and so on.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election from 2003, 2004 or 2006. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed. Where zero votes are shown, the ward is not needed because the entire old seat is unsplit.

Calculation method: There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% of its votes from each ward. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done on a ward-by-ward basis using these common percentages.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

The old seat(s) needed are:

• Brecon and Radnorshire

Old seat: Brecon and Radnorshire

					Actual Results					Turnout-adjusted Results						Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2005	Old Seat	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	NAT Votes	OTH Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	NAT Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	NAT Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Powys	Aber-craf	1,132	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	0	508	93	0	141	0	555	102	0	154	811	92	563	140	9	5	811
Powys	Beguildy	1,075	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	0	0	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	770	770	460	44	193	45	25	770
Powys	Bronllys	963	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	0	0	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	690	690	412	40	173	41	22	690
Powys	Builth	1,835	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	0	0	0	0	1,010	0	0	0	0	1,315	1,315	785	76	330	78	43	1,315
Powys	Bwlch	753	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	540	0	0	540	0	0	540	0	0	540
Powys	Crickhowell	2,367	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	1,696	0	0	1,696	0	0	1,696	0	0	1,696
Powys	Cwm-twrch	1,522	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	0	-1	0	0	0	0	1,091	0	0	0	1,091	0	1,091	0	0	0	1,091
Powys	Disserth and Trecoed	939	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	673	0	0	673	0	0	673	0	0	673
Powys	Felin-fâch	997	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	0	0	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	715	715	427	41	179	42	23	715
Powys	Glasbury	1,656	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	0	0	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	1,187	1,187	709	69	298	70	39	1,187
Powys	Gwernyfed	1,189	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	0	0	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	852	852	509	49	214	50	28	852
Powys	Hay	1,239	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	0	0	452	0	121	0	0	700	0	188	888	112	10	747	11	6	888
Powys	Knighton	2,360	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	0	0	725	0	360	0	0	1,130	0	561	1,691	335	32	1,270	33	18	1,691
Powys	Llanafanfawr	1,112	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	0	0	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	797	797	476	46	200	47	26	797
Powys	Llanbadarn Fawr	858	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	0	0	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	615	615	367	35	154	36	20	615
Powys	Llandrindod East/Llandrindod West	1,014	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	0	0	0	0	473	0	0	0	0	727	727	434	42	182	43	24	727
Powys	Llandrindod North	1,386	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	0	0	0	0	689	0	0	0	0	993	993	593	57	249	59	32	993
Powys	Llandrindod South	1,673	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	0	0	415	0	434	0	0	586	0	613	1,199	366	35	740	36	20	1,199
Powys	Llanelwedd	951	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	0	0	0	0	553	0	0	0	0	682	682	407	39	171	40	22	682
Powys	Llangattock	824	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	0	67	123	0	215	0	98	179	0	314	591	187	116	257	18	10	591
Powys	Llangors	874	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	626	0	0	626	0	0	626	0	0	626
Powys	Llangunllo	1,001	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	0	0	64	0	576	0	0	72	0	646	718	386	37	234	38	21	718
Powys	Llangynidr	844	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	0	0	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	605	605	361	35	152	36	20	605
Powys	Llanwrtyd Wells	1,401	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	0	0	213	57	541	0	0	264	71	670	1,005	400	38	432	110	22	1,005
Powys	Llanyre	914	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	0	0	0	0	516	0	0	0	0	655	655	391	38	164	39	21	655
Powys	Maescar/Llywel	1,394	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	0	0	0	0	864	0	0	0	0	999	999	597	58	251	59	33	999
Powys	Nantmel	1,163	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	0	0	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	834	834	498	48	209	49	27	834
Powys	Old Radnor	1,263	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	0	0	150	0	606	0	0	180	0	726	906	433	42	362	43	24	906
Powys	Presteigne	2,021	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	1,448	0	0	1,448	0	0	1,448	0	0	1,448
Powys	Rhayader	1,712	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	0	0	369	0	582	0	0	476	0	751	1,227	448	43	664	44	24	1,227
Powys	St.David Within	1,192	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	0	0	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	854	854	510	49	214	50	28	854
Powys	St.John	2,506	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	0	0	616	0	429	0	0	1,059	0	737	1,796	440	42	1,244	43	24	1,796
Powys	St.Mary	2,107	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	1,510	0	0	1,510	0	0	1,510	0	0	1,510
Powys	Talgarth	1,309	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	209	0	248	26	242	270	0	321	34	313	938	457	18	399	52	10	938
Powys	Talybont-on-Usk	1,550	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	0	0	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	1,111	1,111	663	64	279	66	36	1,111
Powys	Tawe-Uchaf	1,702	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	0	0	105	0	745	0	0	151	0	1,069	1,220	638	62	419	63	35	1,220
Powys	Ynyscedwyn	1,796	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	0	-1	0	0	0	0	1,287	0	0	0	1,287	0	1,287	0	0	0	1,287
Powys	Yscir	868	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	0	0	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	622	622	371	36	156	37	20	622
Powys	Ystradgynlais	2,035	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	0	-1	0	0	0	0	1,458	0	0	0	1,458	0	1,458	0	0	0	1,458
	Total		Brecon and Radnorshire							270	4,489	11,713	105	21,765	38,342	13,277	5,755	17,182	1,404	722	38,342

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Brecon and Radnorshire at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

Party	General Election 2005 Votes	Local Election Turnout-adjusted Votes	Votes to transfer away	Votes to transfer into	Ward Transfers needed
CON	13,277	270	0	13,007	Transfer in 61.8% (= 13007 / 21041) of ward's transfer pool votes
LAB	5,755	4,489	0	1,266	Transfer in 6.0% (= 1266 / 21041) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB	17,182	11,713	0	5,469	Transfer in 26.0% (= 5469 / 21041) of ward's transfer pool votes
NAT	1,404	105	0	1,299	Transfer in 6.2% (= 1299 / 21041) of ward's transfer pool votes
OTH	723	21,765	21,042	0	Transfer away 96.7% (= 21042 / 21765) of ward's OTH votes
Total	38,341	38,342	21,041	21,041

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

New seat: Brecon and Radnorshire

District	Ward	Electorate 2005	Old Seat	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	NAT Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Powys	Aber-craf	1,132	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	92	563	140	9	5	811
Powys	Beguildy	1,075	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	460	44	193	45	25	770
Powys	Bronllys	963	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	412	40	173	41	22	690
Powys	Builth	1,835	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	785	76	330	78	43	1,315
Powys	Bwlch	753	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	0	0	540	0	0	540
Powys	Crickhowell	2,367	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	0	0	1,696	0	0	1,696
Powys	Cwm-twrch	1,522	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	0	1,091	0	0	0	1,091
Powys	Disserth and Trecoed	939	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	0	0	673	0	0	673
Powys	Felin-fâch	997	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	427	41	179	42	23	715
Powys	Glasbury	1,656	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	709	69	298	70	39	1,187
Powys	Gwernyfed	1,189	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	509	49	214	50	28	852
Powys	Hay	1,239	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	112	10	747	11	6	888
Powys	Knighton	2,360	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	335	32	1,270	33	18	1,691
Powys	Llanafanfawr	1,112	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	476	46	200	47	26	797
Powys	Llanbadarn Fawr	858	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	367	35	154	36	20	615
Powys	Llandrindod East/Llandrindod West	1,014	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	434	42	182	43	24	727
Powys	Llandrindod North	1,386	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	593	57	249	59	32	993
Powys	Llandrindod South	1,673	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	366	35	740	36	20	1,199
Powys	Llanelwedd	951	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	407	39	171	40	22	682
Powys	Llangattock	824	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	187	116	257	18	10	591
Powys	Llangors	874	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	0	0	626	0	0	626
Powys	Llangunllo	1,001	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	386	37	234	38	21	718
Powys	Llangynidr	844	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	361	35	152	36	20	605
Powys	Llanwrtyd Wells	1,401	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	400	38	432	110	22	1,005
Powys	Llanyre	914	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	391	38	164	39	21	655
Powys	Maescar/Llywel	1,394	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	597	58	251	59	33	999
Powys	Nantmel	1,163	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	498	48	209	49	27	834
Powys	Old Radnor	1,263	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	433	42	362	43	24	906
Powys	Presteigne	2,021	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	0	0	1,448	0	0	1,448
Powys	Rhayader	1,712	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	448	43	664	44	24	1,227
Powys	St.David Within	1,192	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	510	49	214	50	28	854
Powys	St.John	2,506	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	440	42	1,244	43	24	1,796
Powys	St.Mary	2,107	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	0	0	1,510	0	0	1,510
Powys	Talgarth	1,309	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	457	18	399	52	10	938
Powys	Talybont-on-Usk	1,550	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	663	64	279	66	36	1,111
Powys	Tawe-Uchaf	1,702	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	638	62	419	63	35	1,220
Powys	Ynyscedwyn	1,796	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	0	1,287	0	0	0	1,287
Powys	Yscir	868	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	371	36	156	37	20	622
Powys	Ystradgynlais	2,035	Brecon and Radnorshire	Brecon and Radnorshire	0	1,458	0	0	0	1,458
	Total			Brecon and Radnorshire	13,277	5,755	17,182	1,404	722	38,341

This seat was actually unchanged by the Boundary Commission, so these calculations are shown for information only. The actual general election result for 2005 should be used for this seat.