Carmarthen East and Dinefwr: New Boundaries Calculation

Due to changes in ward boundaries, some new wards are divided among several old constituencies (though never between two new constituencies). Such wards are shown divided into several parts, called [1], [2], and so on.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election from 2003, 2004 or 2006. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed. Where zero votes are shown, the ward is not needed because the entire old seat is unsplit.

Calculation method: There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% of its votes from each ward. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done on a ward-by-ward basis using these common percentages.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

The old seat(s) needed are:

• Carmarthen East and Dinefwr

Old seat: Carmarthen East and Dinefwr

					Actual Results					Turnout-adjusted Results						Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2005	Old Seat	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	NAT Votes	OTH Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	NAT Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	NAT Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Carmarthenshire	Abergwili	1,798	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	0	179	0	246	677	0	207	0	284	782	1,273	225	343	173	483	47	1,273
Carmarthenshire	Ammanford	1,968	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	0	636	0	337	0	0	911	0	483	0	1,394	0	911	0	483	0	1,394
Carmarthenshire	Betws	1,374	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	0	329	0	299	0	0	510	0	463	0	973	0	510	0	463	0	973
Carmarthenshire	Cenarth	1,646	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	0	68	0	0	853	0	86	0	0	1,079	1,165	311	274	239	274	64	1,165
Carmarthenshire	Cilycwm	1,133	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	0	0	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	802	802	231	140	178	204	48	802
Carmarthenshire	Cynwyl Elfed [1]	1,345	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South	0	0	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	952	952	274	166	211	242	57	952
Carmarthenshire	Cynwyl Gaeo	1,276	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	155	0	0	568	0	194	0	0	710	0	904	194	0	0	710	0	904
Carmarthenshire	Garnant	1,502	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	0	567	0	100	110	0	776	0	137	151	1,064	43	802	33	175	9	1,064
Carmarthenshire	Glanamman	1,755	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	0	529	0	353	0	0	745	0	497	0	1,242	0	745	0	497	0	1,242
Carmarthenshire	Gorslas	2,929	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	0	853	0	990	909	0	643	0	746	685	2,074	197	762	152	920	41	2,074
Carmarthenshire	Llanddarog	1,529	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	0	0	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	1,082	1,082	312	188	240	275	65	1,082
Carmarthenshire	Llandeilo	2,281	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	0	0	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	1,615	1,615	465	282	358	411	97	1,615
Carmarthenshire	Llandovery	2,096	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	0	88	0	478	659	0	107	0	579	798	1,484	230	246	177	782	48	1,484
Carmarthenshire	Llandybie	2,960	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	0	747	0	1,100	881	0	574	0	845	677	2,096	195	692	150	1,017	40	2,096
Carmarthenshire	Llanegwad	1,812	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	0	0	238	0	864	0	0	277	0	1,006	1,283	290	175	500	256	60	1,283
Carmarthenshire	Llanfihangel Aberbythych	1,393	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	83	0	0	389	301	106	0	0	496	384	986	216	67	85	593	23	986
Carmarthenshire	Llanfihangel-ar-Arth	2,148	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	214	0	0	870	0	300	0	0	1,220	0	1,520	300	0	0	1,220	0	1,520
Carmarthenshire	Llangadog	1,565	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	0	44	0	260	721	0	48	0	281	779	1,108	224	184	172	479	46	1,108
Carmarthenshire	Llangeler	2,549	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	0	0	0	901	438	0	0	0	1,214	590	1,804	170	103	131	1,364	35	1,804
Carmarthenshire	Llangunnor	1,918	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	0	0	0	362	686	0	0	0	469	889	1,358	256	155	197	695	53	1,358
Carmarthenshire	Llangyndeyrn	2,394	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	0	184	0	872	0	0	295	0	1,400	0	1,695	0	295	0	1,400	0	1,695
Carmarthenshire	Llanybydder	1,961	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	0	0	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	1,388	1,388	400	242	308	353	83	1,388
Carmarthenshire	Manordeilo and Salem	1,708	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	132	0	0	181	655	165	0	0	226	818	1,209	400	142	181	434	49	1,209
Carmarthenshire	Penygroes	1,878	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	0	414	0	552	0	0	570	0	760	0	1,330	0	570	0	760	0	1,330
Carmarthenshire	Pontamman	2,031	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	0	461	0	355	0	0	812	0	626	0	1,438	0	812	0	626	0	1,438
Carmarthenshire	Quarter Bach	2,195	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	0	655	0	467	0	0	907	0	647	0	1,554	0	907	0	647	0	1,554
Carmarthenshire	Saron	2,749	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	0	1,385	0	1,468	0	0	945	0	1,001	0	1,946	0	945	0	1,001	0	1,946
Carmarthenshire	St.Ishmael	2,193	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	0	0	0	414	803	0	0	0	528	1,024	1,552	295	178	227	788	61	1,552
	Total		Carmarthen East and Dinefwr							765	8,136	277	13,612	15,501	38,291	5,235	10,843	3,719	17,561	932	38,291

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Carmarthen East and Dinefwr at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

Party	General Election 2005 Votes	Local Election Turnout-adjusted Votes	Votes to transfer away	Votes to transfer into	Ward Transfers needed
CON	5,235	765	0	4,470	Transfer in 30.7% (= 4470 / 14568) of ward's transfer pool votes
LAB	10,843	8,136	0	2,707	Transfer in 18.6% (= 2707 / 14568) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB	3,719	277	0	3,442	Transfer in 23.6% (= 3442 / 14568) of ward's transfer pool votes
NAT	17,561	13,612	0	3,949	Transfer in 27.1% (= 3949 / 14568) of ward's transfer pool votes
OTH	933	15,501	14,568	0	Transfer away 94.0% (= 14568 / 15501) of ward's OTH votes
Total	38,291	38,291	14,568	14,568

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

New seat: Carmarthen East and Dinefwr

District	Ward	Electorate 2005	Old Seat	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	NAT Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Carmarthenshire	Abergwili	1,798	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	225	343	173	483	47	1,273
Carmarthenshire	Ammanford	1,968	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	0	911	0	483	0	1,394
Carmarthenshire	Betws	1,374	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	0	510	0	463	0	973
Carmarthenshire	Cenarth	1,646	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	311	274	239	274	64	1,165
Carmarthenshire	Cilycwm	1,133	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	231	140	178	204	48	802
Carmarthenshire	Cynwyl Gaeo	1,276	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	194	0	0	710	0	904
Carmarthenshire	Garnant	1,502	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	43	802	33	175	9	1,064
Carmarthenshire	Glanamman	1,755	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	0	745	0	497	0	1,242
Carmarthenshire	Gorslas	2,929	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	197	762	152	920	41	2,074
Carmarthenshire	Llanddarog	1,529	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	312	188	240	275	65	1,082
Carmarthenshire	Llandeilo	2,281	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	465	282	358	411	97	1,615
Carmarthenshire	Llandovery	2,096	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	230	246	177	782	48	1,484
Carmarthenshire	Llandybie	2,960	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	195	692	150	1,017	40	2,096
Carmarthenshire	Llanegwad	1,812	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	290	175	500	256	60	1,283
Carmarthenshire	Llanfihangel Aberbythych	1,393	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	216	67	85	593	23	986
Carmarthenshire	Llanfihangel-ar-Arth	2,148	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	300	0	0	1,220	0	1,520
Carmarthenshire	Llangadog	1,565	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	224	184	172	479	46	1,108
Carmarthenshire	Llangeler	2,549	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	170	103	131	1,364	35	1,804
Carmarthenshire	Llangunnor	1,918	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	256	155	197	695	53	1,358
Carmarthenshire	Llangyndeyrn	2,394	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	0	295	0	1,400	0	1,695
Carmarthenshire	Llanybydder	1,961	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	400	242	308	353	83	1,388
Carmarthenshire	Manordeilo and Salem	1,708	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	400	142	181	434	49	1,209
Carmarthenshire	Penygroes	1,878	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	0	570	0	760	0	1,330
Carmarthenshire	Pontamman	2,031	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	0	812	0	626	0	1,438
Carmarthenshire	Quarter Bach	2,195	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	0	907	0	647	0	1,554
Carmarthenshire	Saron	2,749	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	0	945	0	1,001	0	1,946
Carmarthenshire	St.Ishmael	2,193	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	295	178	227	788	61	1,552
	Total			Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	4,960	10,676	3,507	17,318	875	37,339

And these are the implied results for 2005 for the new seat of Carmarthen East and Dinefwr.