Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South: New Boundaries Calculation

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2005 had the new boundaries for Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2005. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Due to changes in ward boundaries, some new wards are divided among several old constituencies (though never between two new constituencies). Such wards are shown divided into several parts, called [1], [2], and so on.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election from 2003, 2004 or 2006. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed. Where zero votes are shown, the ward is not needed because the entire old seat is unsplit.

Calculation method: There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% of its votes from each ward. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done on a ward-by-ward basis using these common percentages.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

The old seat(s) needed are:

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South

Old seat: Carmarthen East and Dinefwr

The main table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the old seat of Carmarthen East and Dinefwr. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results, and the third block has the transfer-adjusted results. Details of the transfer calculation are given below this table.

Actual Results Turnout-adjusted Results Transfer-adjusted Results

District Ward Electorate
2005 Old Seat New Seat CON
Votes LAB
Votes LIB
Votes NAT
Votes OTH
Votes CON
Votes LAB
Votes LIB
Votes NAT
Votes OTH
Votes Total
Votes CON
Votes LAB
Votes LIB
Votes NAT
Votes OTH
Votes Total
Votes
Carmarthenshire Abergwili 1,798 Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 0 179 0 246 677 0 207 0 284 782 1,273 225 343 173 483 47 1,273

Carmarthenshire Ammanford 1,968 Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 0 636 0 337 0 0 911 0 483 0 1,394 0 911 0 483 0 1,394

Carmarthenshire Betws 1,374 Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 0 329 0 299 0 0 510 0 463 0 973 0 510 0 463 0 973

Carmarthenshire Cenarth 1,646 Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 0 68 0 0 853 0 86 0 0 1,079 1,165 311 274 239 274 64 1,165

Carmarthenshire Cilycwm 1,133 Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 802 802 231 140 178 204 48 802

Carmarthenshire Cynwyl Elfed [1] 1,345 Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 952 952 274 166 211 242 57 952

Carmarthenshire Cynwyl Gaeo 1,276 Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 155 0 0 568 0 194 0 0 710 0 904 194 0 0 710 0 904

Carmarthenshire Garnant 1,502 Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 0 567 0 100 110 0 776 0 137 151 1,064 43 802 33 175 9 1,064

Carmarthenshire Glanamman 1,755 Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 0 529 0 353 0 0 745 0 497 0 1,242 0 745 0 497 0 1,242

Carmarthenshire Gorslas 2,929 Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 0 853 0 990 909 0 643 0 746 685 2,074 197 762 152 920 41 2,074

Carmarthenshire Llanddarog 1,529 Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 1,082 1,082 312 188 240 275 65 1,082

Carmarthenshire Llandeilo 2,281 Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 1,615 1,615 465 282 358 411 97 1,615

Carmarthenshire Llandovery 2,096 Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 0 88 0 478 659 0 107 0 579 798 1,484 230 246 177 782 48 1,484

Carmarthenshire Llandybie 2,960 Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 0 747 0 1,100 881 0 574 0 845 677 2,096 195 692 150 1,017 40 2,096

Carmarthenshire Llanegwad 1,812 Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 0 0 238 0 864 0 0 277 0 1,006 1,283 290 175 500 256 60 1,283

Carmarthenshire Llanfihangel Aberbythych 1,393 Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 83 0 0 389 301 106 0 0 496 384 986 216 67 85 593 23 986

Carmarthenshire Llanfihangel-ar-Arth 2,148 Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 214 0 0 870 0 300 0 0 1,220 0 1,520 300 0 0 1,220 0 1,520

Carmarthenshire Llangadog 1,565 Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 0 44 0 260 721 0 48 0 281 779 1,108 224 184 172 479 46 1,108

Carmarthenshire Llangeler 2,549 Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 0 0 0 901 438 0 0 0 1,214 590 1,804 170 103 131 1,364 35 1,804

Carmarthenshire Llangunnor 1,918 Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 0 0 0 362 686 0 0 0 469 889 1,358 256 155 197 695 53 1,358

Carmarthenshire Llangyndeyrn 2,394 Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 0 184 0 872 0 0 295 0 1,400 0 1,695 0 295 0 1,400 0 1,695

Carmarthenshire Llanybydder 1,961 Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 1,388 1,388 400 242 308 353 83 1,388

Carmarthenshire Manordeilo and Salem 1,708 Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 132 0 0 181 655 165 0 0 226 818 1,209 400 142 181 434 49 1,209

Carmarthenshire Penygroes 1,878 Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 0 414 0 552 0 0 570 0 760 0 1,330 0 570 0 760 0 1,330

Carmarthenshire Pontamman 2,031 Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 0 461 0 355 0 0 812 0 626 0 1,438 0 812 0 626 0 1,438

Carmarthenshire Quarter Bach 2,195 Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 0 655 0 467 0 0 907 0 647 0 1,554 0 907 0 647 0 1,554

Carmarthenshire Saron 2,749 Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 0 1,385 0 1,468 0 0 945 0 1,001 0 1,946 0 945 0 1,001 0 1,946

Carmarthenshire St.Ishmael 2,193 Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 0 0 0 414 803 0 0 0 528 1,024 1,552 295 178 227 788 61 1,552

Total Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 765 8,136 277 13,612 15,501 38,291 5,235 10,843 3,719 17,561 932 38,291

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Carmarthen East and Dinefwr at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

Party General
Election 2005
Votes Local Election
Turnout-adjusted
Votes Votes to
transfer
away Votes to
transfer
into Ward Transfers needed

CON 5,235 765 0 4,470 Transfer in 30.7% (= 4470 / 14568) of ward's transfer pool votes

LAB 10,843 8,136 0 2,707 Transfer in 18.6% (= 2707 / 14568) of ward's transfer pool votes

LIB 3,719 277 0 3,442 Transfer in 23.6% (= 3442 / 14568) of ward's transfer pool votes

NAT 17,561 13,612 0 3,949 Transfer in 27.1% (= 3949 / 14568) of ward's transfer pool votes

OTH 933 15,501 14,568 0 Transfer away 94.0% (= 14568 / 15501) of ward's OTH votes

Total 38,291 38,291 14,568 14,568

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

Old seat: Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South

The main table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the old seat of Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results, and the third block has the transfer-adjusted results. Details of the transfer calculation are given below this table.

Actual Results Turnout-adjusted Results Transfer-adjusted Results

District Ward Electorate
2005 Old Seat New Seat CON
Votes LAB
Votes LIB
Votes NAT
Votes OTH
Votes CON
Votes LAB
Votes LIB
Votes NAT
Votes OTH
Votes Total
Votes CON
Votes LAB
Votes LIB
Votes NAT
Votes OTH
Votes Total
Votes
Carmarthenshire Carmarthen Town North 3,883 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 0 1,053 0 1,351 574 0 922 0 1,183 503 2,608 262 1,086 52 1,187 19 2,608

Carmarthenshire Carmarthen Town South 2,750 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 0 373 0 554 1,033 0 351 0 522 973 1,846 507 669 101 529 37 1,846

Carmarthenshire Carmarthen Town West 3,429 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 0 362 0 968 1,211 0 328 0 877 1,097 2,302 572 686 114 885 42 2,302

Carmarthenshire Cynwyl Elfed [2] 1,026 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 689 689 359 225 72 5 26 689

Carmarthenshire Laugharne Township 2,244 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 0 401 0 0 925 0 456 0 0 1,051 1,507 548 799 110 8 40 1,507

Carmarthenshire Llanboidy 1,603 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 0 0 0 492 411 0 0 0 586 490 1,076 255 160 51 589 18 1,076

Carmarthenshire Llansteffan 1,706 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 0 0 0 516 614 0 0 0 523 622 1,145 324 203 65 528 23 1,145

Carmarthenshire St.Clears 2,108 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 0 0 0 0 1,220 0 0 0 0 1,415 1,415 737 463 148 11 54 1,415

Carmarthenshire Trelech 1,703 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 1,143 1,143 596 374 119 9 43 1,143

Carmarthenshire Whitland 1,518 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 0 0 0 0 718 0 0 0 0 1,019 1,019 531 333 106 8 39 1,019

Pembrokeshire Amroth 1,013 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 0 71 344 0 93 0 95 461 0 125 681 65 135 474 1 4 681

Pembrokeshire Carew 1,097 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 0 152 0 0 499 0 172 0 0 565 737 294 356 59 4 21 737

Pembrokeshire East Williamston 1,891 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 0 0 0 0 881 0 0 0 0 1,270 1,270 662 415 133 10 48 1,270

Pembrokeshire Hundleton 1,339 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 0 0 0 0 761 0 0 0 0 899 899 468 294 94 7 34 899

Pembrokeshire Kilgetty/Begelly 1,682 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 0 0 294 125 395 0 0 408 173 548 1,129 285 179 465 177 21 1,129

Pembrokeshire Lampeter Velfrey 1,111 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 0 0 0 0 566 0 0 0 0 746 746 389 244 78 6 28 746

Pembrokeshire Lamphey 1,298 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 0 0 0 0 739 0 0 0 0 872 872 454 285 91 7 33 872

Pembrokeshire Maenclochog [2] 593 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Preseli Pembrokeshire 0 0 0 456 789 0 0 0 146 252 398 131 82 26 148 9 398

Pembrokeshire Manorbier 1,530 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 0 259 0 0 712 0 274 0 0 753 1,027 392 520 78 6 28 1,027

Pembrokeshire Martletwy 1,034 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 0 0 138 0 353 0 0 195 0 499 694 260 163 247 4 19 694

Pembrokeshire Narberth 1,527 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 0 235 0 0 647 0 273 0 0 752 1,025 392 519 78 6 28 1,025

Pembrokeshire Narberth Rural 1,128 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 0 0 224 0 329 0 0 307 0 451 758 235 147 354 3 17 758

Pembrokeshire Pembroke Dock: Central 1,209 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 0 195 115 0 200 0 310 183 0 318 811 165 414 216 2 12 811

Pembrokeshire Pembroke Dock: Llanion 1,856 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 0 441 0 0 299 0 743 0 0 504 1,247 262 907 52 4 19 1,247

Pembrokeshire Pembroke Dock: Market 1,209 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 0 229 0 0 452 0 273 0 0 539 812 281 449 56 4 20 812

Pembrokeshire Pembroke Dock: Pennar 2,137 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 0 721 0 0 278 0 1,036 0 0 399 1,435 208 1,166 41 3 15 1,435

Pembrokeshire Pembroke: Monkton 1,075 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 0 347 0 0 135 0 520 0 0 202 722 105 586 21 1 7 722

Pembrokeshire Pembroke: St.Mary North 1,440 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 0 179 0 0 432 0 283 0 0 684 967 356 506 71 5 26 967

Pembrokeshire Pembroke: St.Mary South 1,052 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 0 80 125 0 359 0 100 157 0 450 707 234 247 204 3 17 707

Pembrokeshire Pembroke: St.Michael 1,880 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 0 0 472 0 336 0 0 737 0 525 1,262 273 171 791 4 20 1,262

Pembrokeshire Penally 1,314 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 0 0 0 601 63 0 0 0 799 84 883 43 27 8 799 3 883

Pembrokeshire Saundersfoot 2,265 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 0 0 341 0 633 0 0 532 0 988 1,520 515 323 635 8 37 1,520

Pembrokeshire Tenby: North 1,696 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 0 0 0 463 437 0 0 0 586 553 1,139 288 180 57 590 21 1,139

Pembrokeshire Tenby: South 2,045 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 0 182 0 0 777 0 261 0 0 1,113 1,374 580 625 116 9 42 1,374

Total Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 0 6,397 2,980 5,395 23,093 37,865 12,044 13,953 5,399 5,582 885 37,865

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

Party General
Election 2005
Votes Local Election
Turnout-adjusted
Votes Votes to
transfer
away Votes to
transfer
into Ward Transfers needed

CON 12,043 0 0 12,043 Transfer in 54.2% (= 12043 / 22205) of ward's transfer pool votes

LAB 13,953 6,397 0 7,556 Transfer in 34.0% (= 7556 / 22205) of ward's transfer pool votes

LIB 5,399 2,980 0 2,419 Transfer in 10.9% (= 2419 / 22205) of ward's transfer pool votes

NAT 5,582 5,395 0 187 Transfer in 0.8% (= 187 / 22205) of ward's transfer pool votes

OTH 886 23,093 22,207 0 Transfer away 96.2% (= 22207 / 23093) of ward's OTH votes

Total 37,863 37,865 22,205 22,205

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

New seat: Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South

The new seat of Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

District Ward Electorate
2005 Old Seat New Seat CON
Votes LAB
Votes LIB
Votes NAT
Votes OTH
Votes Total
Votes

Pembrokeshire Amroth 1,013 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 65 135 474 1 4 681

Pembrokeshire Carew 1,097 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 294 356 59 4 21 737

Carmarthenshire Carmarthen Town North 3,883 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 262 1,086 52 1,187 19 2,608

Carmarthenshire Carmarthen Town South 2,750 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 507 669 101 529 37 1,846

Carmarthenshire Carmarthen Town West 3,429 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 572 686 114 885 42 2,302

Carmarthenshire Cynwyl Elfed [1] 1,345 Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 274 166 211 242 57 952

Carmarthenshire Cynwyl Elfed [2] 1,026 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 359 225 72 5 26 689

Pembrokeshire East Williamston 1,891 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 662 415 133 10 48 1,270

Pembrokeshire Hundleton 1,339 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 468 294 94 7 34 899

Pembrokeshire Kilgetty/Begelly 1,682 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 285 179 465 177 21 1,129

Pembrokeshire Lampeter Velfrey 1,111 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 389 244 78 6 28 746

Pembrokeshire Lamphey 1,298 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 454 285 91 7 33 872

Carmarthenshire Laugharne Township 2,244 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 548 799 110 8 40 1,507

Carmarthenshire Llanboidy 1,603 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 255 160 51 589 18 1,076

Carmarthenshire Llansteffan 1,706 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 324 203 65 528 23 1,145

Pembrokeshire Manorbier 1,530 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 392 520 78 6 28 1,027

Pembrokeshire Martletwy 1,034 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 260 163 247 4 19 694

Pembrokeshire Narberth Rural 1,128 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 235 147 354 3 17 758

Pembrokeshire Narberth 1,527 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 392 519 78 6 28 1,025

Pembrokeshire Pembroke Dock: Central 1,209 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 165 414 216 2 12 811

Pembrokeshire Pembroke Dock: Llanion 1,856 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 262 907 52 4 19 1,247

Pembrokeshire Pembroke Dock: Market 1,209 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 281 449 56 4 20 812

Pembrokeshire Pembroke Dock: Pennar 2,137 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 208 1,166 41 3 15 1,435

Pembrokeshire Pembroke: Monkton 1,075 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 105 586 21 1 7 722

Pembrokeshire Pembroke: St.Mary North 1,440 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 356 506 71 5 26 967

Pembrokeshire Pembroke: St.Mary South 1,052 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 234 247 204 3 17 707

Pembrokeshire Pembroke: St.Michael 1,880 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 273 171 791 4 20 1,262

Pembrokeshire Penally 1,314 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 43 27 8 799 3 883

Pembrokeshire Saundersfoot 2,265 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 515 323 635 8 37 1,520

Carmarthenshire St.Clears 2,108 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 737 463 148 11 54 1,415

Pembrokeshire Tenby: North 1,696 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 288 180 57 590 21 1,139

Pembrokeshire Tenby: South 2,045 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 580 625 116 9 42 1,374

Carmarthenshire Trelech 1,703 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 596 374 119 9 43 1,143

Carmarthenshire Whitland 1,518 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 531 333 106 8 39 1,019

Total Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 12,187 14,037 5,584 5,676 933 38,419

And these are the implied results for 2005 for the new seat of Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South.

					Actual Results					Turnout-adjusted Results						Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2005	Old Seat	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	NAT Votes	OTH Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	NAT Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	NAT Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Carmarthenshire	Abergwili	1,798	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	0	179	0	246	677	0	207	0	284	782	1,273	225	343	173	483	47	1,273
Carmarthenshire	Ammanford	1,968	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	0	636	0	337	0	0	911	0	483	0	1,394	0	911	0	483	0	1,394
Carmarthenshire	Betws	1,374	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	0	329	0	299	0	0	510	0	463	0	973	0	510	0	463	0	973
Carmarthenshire	Cenarth	1,646	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	0	68	0	0	853	0	86	0	0	1,079	1,165	311	274	239	274	64	1,165
Carmarthenshire	Cilycwm	1,133	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	0	0	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	802	802	231	140	178	204	48	802
Carmarthenshire	Cynwyl Elfed [1]	1,345	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South	0	0	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	952	952	274	166	211	242	57	952
Carmarthenshire	Cynwyl Gaeo	1,276	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	155	0	0	568	0	194	0	0	710	0	904	194	0	0	710	0	904
Carmarthenshire	Garnant	1,502	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	0	567	0	100	110	0	776	0	137	151	1,064	43	802	33	175	9	1,064
Carmarthenshire	Glanamman	1,755	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	0	529	0	353	0	0	745	0	497	0	1,242	0	745	0	497	0	1,242
Carmarthenshire	Gorslas	2,929	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	0	853	0	990	909	0	643	0	746	685	2,074	197	762	152	920	41	2,074
Carmarthenshire	Llanddarog	1,529	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	0	0	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	1,082	1,082	312	188	240	275	65	1,082
Carmarthenshire	Llandeilo	2,281	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	0	0	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	1,615	1,615	465	282	358	411	97	1,615
Carmarthenshire	Llandovery	2,096	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	0	88	0	478	659	0	107	0	579	798	1,484	230	246	177	782	48	1,484
Carmarthenshire	Llandybie	2,960	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	0	747	0	1,100	881	0	574	0	845	677	2,096	195	692	150	1,017	40	2,096
Carmarthenshire	Llanegwad	1,812	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	0	0	238	0	864	0	0	277	0	1,006	1,283	290	175	500	256	60	1,283
Carmarthenshire	Llanfihangel Aberbythych	1,393	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	83	0	0	389	301	106	0	0	496	384	986	216	67	85	593	23	986
Carmarthenshire	Llanfihangel-ar-Arth	2,148	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	214	0	0	870	0	300	0	0	1,220	0	1,520	300	0	0	1,220	0	1,520
Carmarthenshire	Llangadog	1,565	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	0	44	0	260	721	0	48	0	281	779	1,108	224	184	172	479	46	1,108
Carmarthenshire	Llangeler	2,549	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	0	0	0	901	438	0	0	0	1,214	590	1,804	170	103	131	1,364	35	1,804
Carmarthenshire	Llangunnor	1,918	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	0	0	0	362	686	0	0	0	469	889	1,358	256	155	197	695	53	1,358
Carmarthenshire	Llangyndeyrn	2,394	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	0	184	0	872	0	0	295	0	1,400	0	1,695	0	295	0	1,400	0	1,695
Carmarthenshire	Llanybydder	1,961	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	0	0	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	1,388	1,388	400	242	308	353	83	1,388
Carmarthenshire	Manordeilo and Salem	1,708	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	132	0	0	181	655	165	0	0	226	818	1,209	400	142	181	434	49	1,209
Carmarthenshire	Penygroes	1,878	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	0	414	0	552	0	0	570	0	760	0	1,330	0	570	0	760	0	1,330
Carmarthenshire	Pontamman	2,031	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	0	461	0	355	0	0	812	0	626	0	1,438	0	812	0	626	0	1,438
Carmarthenshire	Quarter Bach	2,195	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	0	655	0	467	0	0	907	0	647	0	1,554	0	907	0	647	0	1,554
Carmarthenshire	Saron	2,749	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	0	1,385	0	1,468	0	0	945	0	1,001	0	1,946	0	945	0	1,001	0	1,946
Carmarthenshire	St.Ishmael	2,193	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	0	0	0	414	803	0	0	0	528	1,024	1,552	295	178	227	788	61	1,552
	Total		Carmarthen East and Dinefwr							765	8,136	277	13,612	15,501	38,291	5,235	10,843	3,719	17,561	932	38,291

Party	General Election 2005 Votes	Local Election Turnout-adjusted Votes	Votes to transfer away	Votes to transfer into	Ward Transfers needed
CON	5,235	765	0	4,470	Transfer in 30.7% (= 4470 / 14568) of ward's transfer pool votes
LAB	10,843	8,136	0	2,707	Transfer in 18.6% (= 2707 / 14568) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB	3,719	277	0	3,442	Transfer in 23.6% (= 3442 / 14568) of ward's transfer pool votes
NAT	17,561	13,612	0	3,949	Transfer in 27.1% (= 3949 / 14568) of ward's transfer pool votes
OTH	933	15,501	14,568	0	Transfer away 94.0% (= 14568 / 15501) of ward's OTH votes
Total	38,291	38,291	14,568	14,568