Delyn: New Boundaries Calculation

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2005 had the new boundaries for Delyn been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2005. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Due to changes in ward boundaries, some new wards are divided among several old constituencies (though never between two new constituencies). Such wards are shown divided into several parts, called [1], [2], and so on.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election from 2003, 2004 or 2006. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed. Where zero votes are shown, the ward is not needed because the entire old seat is unsplit.

Calculation method: There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% of its votes from each ward. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done on a ward-by-ward basis using these common percentages.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

The old seat(s) needed are:

Delyn

Old seat: Delyn

The main table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the old seat of Delyn. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results, and the third block has the transfer-adjusted results. Details of the transfer calculation are given below this table.

Actual Results Turnout-adjusted Results Transfer-adjusted Results

District Ward Electorate
2005 Old Seat New Seat CON
Votes LAB
Votes LIB
Votes NAT
Votes OTH
Votes CON
Votes LAB
Votes LIB
Votes NAT
Votes OTH
Votes Total
Votes CON
Votes LAB
Votes LIB
Votes NAT
Votes OTH
Votes Total
Votes
Flintshire Argoed 2,267 Delyn Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Flintshire Bagillt East 1,454 Delyn Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Flintshire Bagillt West 1,564 Delyn Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Flintshire Brynford 1,831 Delyn Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Flintshire Caerwys 1,993 Delyn Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Flintshire Cilcain 1,566 Delyn Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Flintshire Ffynnongroyw 1,515 Delyn Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Flintshire Flint Castle 1,644 Delyn Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Flintshire Flint Coleshill 3,053 Delyn Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Flintshire Flint Oakenholt 2,143 Delyn Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Flintshire Flint Trelawny 2,858 Delyn Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Flintshire Greenfield 2,057 Delyn Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Flintshire Gronant 1,163 Delyn Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Flintshire Gwernaffield 1,607 Delyn Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Flintshire Gwernymynydd 1,444 Delyn Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Flintshire Halkyn 1,407 Delyn Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Flintshire Holywell Central 1,432 Delyn Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Flintshire Holywell East 1,448 Delyn Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Flintshire Holywell West 1,741 Delyn Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Flintshire Leeswood 1,657 Delyn Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Flintshire Mold Broncoed 1,991 Delyn Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Flintshire Mold East 1,584 Delyn Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Flintshire Mold South 2,158 Delyn Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Flintshire Mold West 1,805 Delyn Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Flintshire Mostyn (Delyn) 1,432 Delyn Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Flintshire New Brighton 2,428 Delyn Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Flintshire Northop 2,430 Delyn Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Flintshire Northop Hall 1,312 Delyn Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Flintshire Trelawnyd and Gwaenysgor 1,417 Delyn Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Flintshire Whitford 1,876 Delyn Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Delyn at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

Party General
Election 2005
Votes Local Election
Turnout-adjusted
Votes Votes to
transfer
away Votes to
transfer
into Ward Transfers needed

CON 8,896 0 0 8,896 Transfer in 26.2% (= 8896 / 34004) of ward's transfer pool votes

LAB 15,540 0 0 15,540 Transfer in 45.7% (= 15540 / 34004) of ward's transfer pool votes

LIB 6,089 0 0 6,089 Transfer in 17.9% (= 6089 / 34004) of ward's transfer pool votes

NAT 2,524 0 0 2,524 Transfer in 7.4% (= 2524 / 34004) of ward's transfer pool votes

OTH 955 0 0 955 Transfer in 2.8% (= 955 / 34004) of ward's transfer pool votes

Total 34,004 0 34,004 34,004

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

New seat: Delyn

The new seat of Delyn is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

District Ward Electorate
2005 Old Seat New Seat CON
Votes LAB
Votes LIB
Votes NAT
Votes OTH
Votes Total
Votes

Flintshire Argoed 2,267 Delyn Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0

Flintshire Bagillt East 1,454 Delyn Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0

Flintshire Bagillt West 1,564 Delyn Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0

Flintshire Brynford 1,831 Delyn Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0

Flintshire Caerwys 1,993 Delyn Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0

Flintshire Cilcain 1,566 Delyn Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0

Flintshire Ffynnongroyw 1,515 Delyn Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0

Flintshire Flint Castle 1,644 Delyn Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0

Flintshire Flint Coleshill 3,053 Delyn Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0

Flintshire Flint Oakenholt 2,143 Delyn Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0

Flintshire Flint Trelawny 2,858 Delyn Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0

Flintshire Greenfield 2,057 Delyn Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0

Flintshire Gronant 1,163 Delyn Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0

Flintshire Gwernaffield 1,607 Delyn Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0

Flintshire Gwernymynydd 1,444 Delyn Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0

Flintshire Halkyn 1,407 Delyn Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0

Flintshire Holywell Central 1,432 Delyn Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0

Flintshire Holywell East 1,448 Delyn Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0

Flintshire Holywell West 1,741 Delyn Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0

Flintshire Leeswood 1,657 Delyn Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0

Flintshire Mold Broncoed 1,991 Delyn Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0

Flintshire Mold East 1,584 Delyn Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0

Flintshire Mold South 2,158 Delyn Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0

Flintshire Mold West 1,805 Delyn Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0

Flintshire Mostyn (Delyn) 1,432 Delyn Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0

Flintshire New Brighton 2,428 Delyn Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0

Flintshire Northop Hall 1,312 Delyn Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0

Flintshire Northop 2,430 Delyn Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0

Flintshire Trelawnyd and Gwaenysgor 1,417 Delyn Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0

Flintshire Whitford 1,876 Delyn Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total Delyn 0 0 0 0 0 0

This seat was actually unchanged by the Boundary Commission, so these calculations are shown for information only. The actual general election result for 2005 should be used for this seat.

					Actual Results					Turnout-adjusted Results						Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2005	Old Seat	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	NAT Votes	OTH Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	NAT Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	NAT Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Flintshire	Argoed	2,267	Delyn	Delyn	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Bagillt East	1,454	Delyn	Delyn	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Bagillt West	1,564	Delyn	Delyn	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Brynford	1,831	Delyn	Delyn	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Caerwys	1,993	Delyn	Delyn	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Cilcain	1,566	Delyn	Delyn	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Ffynnongroyw	1,515	Delyn	Delyn	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Flint Castle	1,644	Delyn	Delyn	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Flint Coleshill	3,053	Delyn	Delyn	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Flint Oakenholt	2,143	Delyn	Delyn	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Flint Trelawny	2,858	Delyn	Delyn	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Greenfield	2,057	Delyn	Delyn	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Gronant	1,163	Delyn	Delyn	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Gwernaffield	1,607	Delyn	Delyn	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Gwernymynydd	1,444	Delyn	Delyn	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Halkyn	1,407	Delyn	Delyn	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Holywell Central	1,432	Delyn	Delyn	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Holywell East	1,448	Delyn	Delyn	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Holywell West	1,741	Delyn	Delyn	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Leeswood	1,657	Delyn	Delyn	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Mold Broncoed	1,991	Delyn	Delyn	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Mold East	1,584	Delyn	Delyn	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Mold South	2,158	Delyn	Delyn	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Mold West	1,805	Delyn	Delyn	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Mostyn (Delyn)	1,432	Delyn	Delyn	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	New Brighton	2,428	Delyn	Delyn	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Northop	2,430	Delyn	Delyn	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Northop Hall	1,312	Delyn	Delyn	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Trelawnyd and Gwaenysgor	1,417	Delyn	Delyn	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Flintshire	Whitford	1,876	Delyn	Delyn	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	Total		Delyn							0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Party	General Election 2005 Votes	Local Election Turnout-adjusted Votes	Votes to transfer away	Votes to transfer into	Ward Transfers needed
CON	8,896	0	0	8,896	Transfer in 26.2% (= 8896 / 34004) of ward's transfer pool votes
LAB	15,540	0	0	15,540	Transfer in 45.7% (= 15540 / 34004) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB	6,089	0	0	6,089	Transfer in 17.9% (= 6089 / 34004) of ward's transfer pool votes
NAT	2,524	0	0	2,524	Transfer in 7.4% (= 2524 / 34004) of ward's transfer pool votes
OTH	955	0	0	955	Transfer in 2.8% (= 955 / 34004) of ward's transfer pool votes
Total	34,004	0	34,004	34,004