New Boundaries 2013 Calculation

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2010 had the new boundaries for Fylde been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2010. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Due to changes in ward boundaries, some new wards are divided among several old constituencies (and sometimes in Scotland between two new constituencies). Such wards are shown divided into several parts, called [1], [2], and so on.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2010 from the period 2007-2011. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed. Where zero votes are shown, the ward results have not yet been acquired, and the implied result is still provisional and will be improved later.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% of its votes from each ward. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done on a ward-by-ward basis using these common percentages.

List of old seats forming part of Fylde

Old seat: Fylde

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the old seat of Fylde. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. Details of the transfer calculation are given below this table.

Old seat: Fylde				Actual Results				Turnout-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Election Year	Electorate 2010	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Fylde	Ansdell	2011	3,594	3,016	805	181	0	1,779	475	107	0	2,361
Fylde	Ashton	2011	3,735	1,439	0	1,134	487	1,154	0	909	391	2,454
Fylde	Central	2011	3,516	1,716	0	0	440	1,838	0	0	471	2,309
Fylde	Clifton	2011	3,400	1,527	0	0	1,617	1,085	0	0	1,149	2,234
Fylde	Elswick and Little Eccleston	2011	1,282	113	0	0	589	136	0	0	707	843
Fylde	Fairhaven	2011	3,584	2,335	0	438	0	1,983	0	372	0	2,355
Fylde	Freckleton East	2011	2,560	501	0	0	1,180	501	0	0	1,181	1,682
Fylde	Freckleton West	2011	2,330	257	0	0	1,472	228	0	0	1,303	1,531
Fylde	Heyhouses	2011	3,676	2,243	0	1,045	0	1,647	0	768	0	2,415
Fylde	Kilnhouse	2011	3,386	1,620	0	623	479	1,324	0	509	391	2,224
Fylde	Kirkham North	2011	3,231	1,069	0	0	2,555	626	0	0	1,496	2,122
Fylde	Kirkham South	2011	2,166	303	148	0	1,098	278	136	0	1,009	1,423
Fylde	Medlar-with-Wesham	2011	2,741	520	0	0	1,242	531	0	0	1,269	1,800
Fylde	Newton and Treales	2011	2,589	650	0	140	1,512	480	0	103	1,117	1,700
Fylde	Park	2011	4,284	3,024	0	0	1,052	2,088	0	0	726	2,814
Fylde	Ribby-with-Wrea	2011	1,188	374	0	0	324	418	0	0	362	780
Fylde	Singleton and Greenhalgh	2011	1,164	106	0	0	420	154	0	0	611	765
Fylde	St Johns	2011	3,525	2,160	0	424	704	1,521	0	299	496	2,316
Fylde	St Leonards	2011	3,494	1,426	553	1,283	318	914	355	823	204	2,296
Fylde	Staining and Weeton	2011	2,369	1,057	242	0	451	940	215	0	401	1,556
Fylde	Warton and Westby	2011	3,934	2,153	0	0	1,252	1,634	0	0	950	2,584
Preston	Lea	2010	4,756	1,333	660	1,161	0	1,321	654	1,150	0	3,125
	Total		66,504					22,580	1,835	5,040	14,234	43,689

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Fylde at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

Party	General Election 2010 Votes	Local Election Turnout-adjusted Votes	Votes to transfer away	Votes to transfer into	Ward Transfers needed
CON	22,826	22,580	0	246	Transfer in 2.1% (= 246 / 11636) of ward's transfer pool votes
LAB	8,624	1,835	0	6,789	Transfer in 58.3% (= 6789 / 11636) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB	9,641	5,040	0	4,601	Transfer in 39.5% (= 4601 / 11636) of ward's transfer pool votes
OTH	2,599	14,234	11,635	0	Transfer away 81.7% (= 11635 / 14234) of ward's OTH votes
Total	43,690	43,689	11,636	11,636

Main table for Fylde

The main table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Fylde, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

Old seat: Wyre and Preston North

Old seat: Fylde	Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2010	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Fylde	Ansdell	3,594	Fylde	1,779	475	107	0	2,361
Fylde	Ashton	3,735	Fylde	1,161	186	1,035	71	2,454
Fylde	Central	3,516	Fylde	1,846	225	152	86	2,309
Fylde	Clifton	3,400	Fylde	1,105	548	371	210	2,234
Fylde	Elswick and Little Eccleston	1,282	Fylde	148	337	229	129	843
Fylde	Fairhaven	3,584	Fylde	1,983	0	372	0	2,355
Fylde	Freckleton East	2,560	Fylde	521	563	382	216	1,682
Fylde	Freckleton West	2,330	Fylde	251	621	421	238	1,531
Fylde	Heyhouses	3,676	Fylde	1,647	0	768	0	2,415
Fylde	Kilnhouse	3,386	Fylde	1,331	186	635	71	2,224
Fylde	Kirkham North	3,231	Fylde	652	713	484	273	2,122
Fylde	Kirkham South	2,166	Fylde	295	617	326	184	1,423
Fylde	Medlar-with-Wesham	2,741	Fylde	553	605	410	232	1,800
Fylde	Newton and Treales	2,589	Fylde	499	533	464	204	1,700
Fylde	Park	4,284	Fylde	2,101	346	235	133	2,814
Fylde	Ribby-with-Wrea	1,188	Fylde	424	173	117	66	780
Fylde	Singleton and Greenhalgh	1,164	Fylde	165	291	197	112	765
Fylde	St Johns	3,525	Fylde	1,530	237	459	91	2,316
Fylde	St Leonards	3,494	Fylde	918	452	889	37	2,296
Fylde	Staining and Weeton	2,369	Fylde	947	406	130	73	1,556
Fylde	Warton and Westby	3,934	Fylde	1,650	453	307	173	2,584
Preston	Lea	4,756	Fylde	1,321	654	1,150	0	3,125
	Total	66,504		22,827	8,621	9,640	2,599	43,689

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the old seat of Wyre and Preston North. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. Details of the transfer calculation are given below this table.

Old seat: Wyre and Preston North				Actual Results				Turnout-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Election Year	Electorate 2010	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Preston	Cadley	2010	3,730	901	549	1,270	0	885	539	1,248	0	2,672
Preston	College	2010	2,796	880	543	509	63	884	545	511	63	2,003
Preston	Garrison	2010	5,555	1,775	1,074	918	0	1,875	1,135	970	0	3,980
Preston	Greyfriars	2010	5,276	2,156	741	1,070	0	2,054	706	1,020	0	3,780
Preston	Preston Rural East [2]	2011	3,456	1,029	398	143	0	1,623	628	226	0	2,477
Preston	Preston Rural North	2010	5,417	2,749	480	773	0	2,666	466	750	0	3,882
Preston	Sharoe Green	2010	5,083	1,538	917	904	135	1,603	956	942	141	3,642
Wyre	Breck	2011	2,743	1,519	365	0	0	1,585	381	0	0	1,966
Wyre	Brock	2011	1,934	-1	0	0	0	1,386	0	0	0	1,386
Wyre	Cabus	2011	1,316	444	186	0	0	665	278	0	0	943
Wyre	Calder	2011	1,672	535	0	0	175	903	0	0	295	1,198
Wyre	Carleton	2011	3,327	1,819	1,043	0	0	1,515	869	0	0	2,384
Wyre	Catterall	2011	2,033	-1	0	0	0	1,457	0	0	0	1,457
Wyre	Garstang	2011	4,012	3,568	632	0	0	2,442	433	0	0	2,875
Wyre	Great Eccleston	2011	2,903	1,913	268	0	0	1,824	256	0	0	2,080
Wyre	Hambleton and Stalmine-with-Staynall	2011	3,460	2,021	474	0	0	2,008	471	0	0	2,479
Wyre	Hardhorn	2011	2,927	2,052	387	0	0	1,764	333	0	0	2,097
Wyre	High Cross	2011	2,931	1,756	540	0	0	1,606	494	0	0	2,100
Wyre	Norcross	2011	2,932	1,305	1,104	0	0	1,138	963	0	0	2,101
Wyre	Staina	2011	4,910	4,092	1,344	0	0	2,648	870	0	0	3,518
Wyre	Tithebarn	2011	3,199	1,830	488	0	312	1,595	425	0	272	2,292
	Total		71,612					34,126	10,748	5,667	771	51,312

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Wyre and Preston North at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

Party	General Election 2010 Votes	Local Election Turnout-adjusted Votes	Votes to transfer away	Votes to transfer into	Ward Transfers needed
CON	26,877	34,126	7,249	0	Transfer away 21.2% (= 7249 / 34126) of ward's CON votes
LAB	10,932	10,748	0	184	Transfer in 2.5% (= 184 / 7245) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB	11,033	5,667	0	5,366	Transfer in 74.1% (= 5366 / 7245) of ward's transfer pool votes
OTH	2,466	771	0	1,695	Transfer in 23.4% (= 1695 / 7245) of ward's transfer pool votes
Total	51,308	51,312	7,245	7,245

Main table for Wyre and Preston North

The main table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Wyre and Preston North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.