Glasgow Central: New Boundaries 2013 Calculation

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2010 had the new boundaries for Glasgow Central been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2010. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Due to changes in ward boundaries, some new wards are divided among several old constituencies (and sometimes in Scotland between two new constituencies). Such wards are shown divided into several parts, called [1], [2], and so on.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2010 from the period 2007-2011. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed. Where zero votes are shown, the ward results have not yet been acquired, and the implied result is still provisional and will be improved later.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% of its votes from each ward. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done on a ward-by-ward basis using these common percentages.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Glasgow Central

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Glasgow Central

Workings for Glasgow Central

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the old seat of Glasgow Central. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. Details of the transfer calculation are given below this table.

Old seat: Glasgow CentralActual ResultsTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
Electorate
2010
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
NAT
Votes
OTH
Votes
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
NAT
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
GlasgowAnderston / City [1]200716,74702,46880601,50803,9141,27802,3927,584
GlasgowCalton [1]200712,0862452,61023107753473,70032701,0995,473
GlasgowEast Centre [2]20072,82604,1084601,9691,6870639723062631,280
GlasgowGovan [1]20076,7774504,6183942,6941,1521481,5231308883803,069
GlasgowLangside [2]20076,3009933,0751,2072,5221,5373049403697714702,854
GlasgowPollokshields [2]20076,0001,4352,5758632,0572,6374087312455847492,717
GlasgowSouthside Central [1]200716,7854233,7955332,3921,5953683,3024642,0811,3887,603
 Total 67,521     1,57514,7492,8854,6306,74130,580

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Glasgow Central at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

PartyGeneral
Election 2010
Votes
Local Election
Turnout-adjusted
Votes
Votes to
transfer
away
Votes to
transfer
into
Ward Transfers needed
CON2,1581,5750583Transfer in 12.7% (= 583 / 4594) of ward's transfer pool votes
LAB15,90814,74901,159Transfer in 25.2% (= 1159 / 4594) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB5,0102,88502,125Transfer in 46.3% (= 2125 / 4594) of ward's transfer pool votes
NAT5,3574,6300727Transfer in 15.8% (= 727 / 4594) of ward's transfer pool votes
OTH2,1476,7414,5940Transfer away 68.2% (= 4594 / 6741) of ward's OTH votes
Total30,58030,5804,5944,594 

Main table for Glasgow Central

The main table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Glasgow Central, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Glasgow CentralTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2010
New Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
NAT
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
GlasgowAnderston / City [1]16,747Glasgow Central2074,3252,0322587627,584
GlasgowCalton [1]12,086Glasgow East4423,8896731193505,473
GlasgowEast Centre [2]2,826Glasgow East23684155334841,280
GlasgowGovan [1]6,777Glasgow Central1811,5882509291213,069
GlasgowLangside [2]6,300Glasgow South3451,0215178221502,854
GlasgowPollokshields [2]6,000Glasgow South West4738604816652392,717
GlasgowSouthside Central [1]16,785Glasgow South4883,5419022,2314427,603
 Total67,521 2,15915,9085,0105,3582,14830,580

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

Old seat: Glasgow North West

Workings for Glasgow North West

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the old seat of Glasgow North West. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. Details of the transfer calculation are given below this table.

Old seat: Glasgow North WestActual ResultsTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
Electorate
2010
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
NAT
Votes
OTH
Votes
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
NAT
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
GlasgowDrumchapel / Anniesland [1]200715,8564125,2423491,8695854265,4203611,9326058,744
GlasgowGarscadden / Scotstounhill200721,5995345,7544832,3339116356,8435742,7751,08311,910
GlasgowHillhead [2]20075,0039122,2721,1841,8995793689164777652332,759
GlasgowMaryhill / Kelvin [3]20072,71103,4941,6022,56196006062784441671,495
GlasgowPartick West [1]200711,4881,4043,7982,2592,8112,4726981,8881,1231,3971,2296,335
GlasgowPartick West [3]20077,8651,4043,7982,2592,8112,4724781,2937699578414,338
 Total 64,522     2,60516,9663,5828,2704,15835,581

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Glasgow North West at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

PartyGeneral
Election 2010
Votes
Local Election
Turnout-adjusted
Votes
Votes to
transfer
away
Votes to
transfer
into
Ward Transfers needed
CON3,5372,6050932Transfer in 17.8% (= 932 / 5239) of ward's transfer pool votes
LAB19,23316,96602,267Transfer in 43.3% (= 2267 / 5239) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB5,6223,58202,040Transfer in 38.9% (= 2040 / 5239) of ward's transfer pool votes
NAT5,4308,2702,8400Transfer away 34.3% (= 2840 / 8270) of ward's NAT votes
OTH1,7604,1582,3980Transfer away 57.7% (= 2398 / 4158) of ward's OTH votes
Total35,58235,5815,2395,239 

Main table for Glasgow North West

The main table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Glasgow North West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Glasgow North WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2010
New Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
NAT
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
GlasgowDrumchapel / Anniesland [1]15,856Glasgow North West6065,8587551,2692568,744
GlasgowGarscadden / Scotstounhill21,599Glasgow North West9167,5261,1881,82245811,910
GlasgowHillhead [2]5,003Glasgow Central4391,088632502992,759
GlasgowMaryhill / Kelvin [3]2,711Glasgow North West44714375292711,495
GlasgowPartick West [1]11,488Glasgow Central9092,4021,5869175206,335
GlasgowPartick West [3]7,865Glasgow North West6231,6451,0866283564,338
 Total64,522 3,53719,2335,6225,4301,76035,581

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

Old seat: Glasgow North East

Workings for Glasgow North East

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the old seat of Glasgow North East. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. Details of the transfer calculation are given below this table.

Old seat: Glasgow North EastActual ResultsTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
Electorate
2010
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
NAT
Votes
OTH
Votes
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
NAT
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
GlasgowAnderston / City [2]20074,61202,46880601,50801,09135606662,113
GlasgowCalton [3]2007102452,6102310775030014
GlasgowCanal [1]200714,6903383,5955872,5141,4152692,8644682,0031,1276,731
GlasgowEast Centre [1]20074,04404,1084601,9691,68709261044443801,854
GlasgowEast Centre [4]20079,75004,1084601,9691,68702,2322501,0709174,469
GlasgowMaryhill / Kelvin [2]20071603,4941,6022,561960031217
GlasgowNorth East [1]200715,2854854,7872282,0987654064,0091911,7576417,004
GlasgowSpringburn200715,7681732,9411681,3007432353,9912281,7641,0087,226
 Total 64,175     91015,1191,5987,0404,74129,408

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Glasgow North East at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

PartyGeneral
Election 2010
Votes
Local Election
Turnout-adjusted
Votes
Votes to
transfer
away
Votes to
transfer
into
Ward Transfers needed
CON1,5699100659Transfer in 10.5% (= 659 / 6304) of ward's transfer pool votes
LAB20,10015,11904,981Transfer in 79.0% (= 4981 / 6304) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB2,2621,5980664Transfer in 10.5% (= 664 / 6304) of ward's transfer pool votes
NAT4,1587,0402,8820Transfer away 40.9% (= 2882 / 7040) of ward's NAT votes
OTH1,3204,7413,4210Transfer away 72.2% (= 3421 / 4741) of ward's OTH votes
Total29,40929,4086,3046,304 

Main table for Glasgow North East

The main table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Glasgow North East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Glasgow North EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2010
New Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
NAT
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
GlasgowAnderston / City [2]4,612Glasgow Central501,47140701852,113
GlasgowCalton [3]10Glasgow East040004
GlasgowCanal [1]14,690Glasgow North East4404,1546401,1833146,731
GlasgowEast Centre [1]4,044Glasgow East481,2861522621061,854
GlasgowEast Centre [4]9,750Glasgow North East1153,1013666322554,469
GlasgowMaryhill / Kelvin [2]16Glasgow North West041107
GlasgowNorth East [1]15,285Glasgow North East5304,9433151,0381787,004
GlasgowSpringburn15,768Glasgow North East3875,1363811,0422817,226
 Total64,175 1,57020,0992,2624,1581,31929,408

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

Old seat: Glasgow South West

Workings for Glasgow South West

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the old seat of Glasgow South West. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. Details of the transfer calculation are given below this table.

Old seat: Glasgow South WestActual ResultsTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
Electorate
2010
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
NAT
Votes
OTH
Votes
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
NAT
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
GlasgowCraigton200723,0375695,3134572,7291,7596175,7604952,9581,90711,737
GlasgowGovan [2]20077,0784504,6183942,6941,1521741,7891531,0444463,606
GlasgowGovan [3]20078,7304504,6183942,6941,1522152,2071881,2875504,447
GlasgowGreater Pollok200723,5335494,1133932,1731,4547585,6805433,0012,00811,990
 Total 62,378     1,76415,4361,3798,2904,91131,780

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Glasgow South West at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

PartyGeneral
Election 2010
Votes
Local Election
Turnout-adjusted
Votes
Votes to
transfer
away
Votes to
transfer
into
Ward Transfers needed
CON2,0841,7640320Transfer in 5.1% (= 320 / 6238) of ward's transfer pool votes
LAB19,86315,43604,427Transfer in 71.0% (= 4427 / 6238) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB2,8701,37901,491Transfer in 23.9% (= 1491 / 6238) of ward's transfer pool votes
NAT5,1928,2903,0980Transfer away 37.4% (= 3098 / 8290) of ward's NAT votes
OTH1,7724,9113,1390Transfer away 63.9% (= 3139 / 4911) of ward's OTH votes
Total31,78131,7806,2386,238 

Main table for Glasgow South West

The main table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Glasgow South West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Glasgow South WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2010
New Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
NAT
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
GlasgowCraigton23,037Glasgow South West7367,4101,0511,85368811,737
GlasgowGovan [2]7,078Glasgow Central2092,2683146541613,606
GlasgowGovan [3]8,730Glasgow South West2582,7983878061984,447
GlasgowGreater Pollok23,533Glasgow South West8817,3871,1181,88072511,990
 Total62,378 2,08419,8632,8705,1931,77231,780

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

Old seat: Glasgow North

Workings for Glasgow North

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the old seat of Glasgow North. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. Details of the transfer calculation are given below this table.

Old seat: Glasgow NorthActual ResultsTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
Electorate
2010
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
NAT
Votes
OTH
Votes
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
NAT
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
GlasgowCanal [2]20078,5833383,5955872,5141,4151861,9803231,3857794,653
GlasgowDrumchapel / Anniesland [2]20075,3794125,2423491,8695851421,8081206452022,917
GlasgowHillhead [1]200715,2889122,2721,1841,8995791,1042,7511,4332,2997018,288
GlasgowMaryhill / Kelvin [1]200719,52003,4941,6022,56196004,2911,9683,1451,17910,583
GlasgowPartick West [2]20075,8501,4043,7982,2592,8112,4723499455627006153,171
 Total 54,620     1,78111,7754,4068,1743,47629,612

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Glasgow North at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

PartyGeneral
Election 2010
Votes
Local Election
Turnout-adjusted
Votes
Votes to
transfer
away
Votes to
transfer
into
Ward Transfers needed
CON2,0891,7810308Transfer in 4.7% (= 308 / 6591) of ward's transfer pool votes
LAB13,18111,77501,406Transfer in 21.3% (= 1406 / 6591) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB9,2834,40604,877Transfer in 74.0% (= 4877 / 6591) of ward's transfer pool votes
NAT3,5308,1744,6440Transfer away 56.8% (= 4644 / 8174) of ward's NAT votes
OTH1,5303,4761,9460Transfer away 56.0% (= 1946 / 3476) of ward's OTH votes
Total29,61329,6126,5916,591 

Main table for Glasgow North

The main table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Glasgow North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Glasgow NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2010
New Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
NAT
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
GlasgowCanal [2]8,583Glasgow North East2432,2411,2285983434,653
GlasgowDrumchapel / Anniesland [2]5,379Glasgow North West1641,910475279892,917
GlasgowHillhead [1]15,288Glasgow Central1,1833,1132,6909933098,288
GlasgowMaryhill / Kelvin [1]19,520Glasgow North West1144,8133,7791,35851910,583
GlasgowPartick West [2]5,850Glasgow Central3841,1031,1113022713,171
 Total54,620 2,08813,1809,2833,5301,53129,612

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

New seat: Glasgow Central

The new seat of Glasgow Central is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Glasgow Central
DistrictWardElectorate
2010
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
NAT
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
GlasgowAnderston / City [1]16,747Glasgow Central2074,3252,0322587627,584
GlasgowGovan [1]6,777Glasgow Central1811,5882509291213,069
GlasgowHillhead [2]5,003Glasgow North West4391,088632502992,759
GlasgowPartick West [1]11,488Glasgow North West9092,4021,5869175206,335
GlasgowAnderston / City [2]4,612Glasgow North East501,47140701852,113
GlasgowGovan [2]7,078Glasgow South West2092,2683146541613,606
GlasgowHillhead [1]15,288Glasgow North1,1833,1132,6909933098,288
GlasgowPartick West [2]5,850Glasgow North3841,1031,1113022713,171
 Total72,843 3,56217,3589,0224,5552,42836,925

And these are the implied results for 2010 for the new seat of Glasgow Central.