Gower: New Boundaries Calculation

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2005 had the new boundaries for Gower been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2005. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Due to changes in ward boundaries, some new wards are divided among several old constituencies (though never between two new constituencies). Such wards are shown divided into several parts, called [1], [2], and so on.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election from 2003, 2004 or 2006. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed. Where zero votes are shown, the ward is not needed because the entire old seat is unsplit.

Calculation method: There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% of its votes from each ward. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done on a ward-by-ward basis using these common percentages.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

The old seat(s) needed are:

Neath
Gower

Old seat: Neath

The main table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the old seat of Neath. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results, and the third block has the transfer-adjusted results. Details of the transfer calculation are given below this table.

Actual Results Turnout-adjusted Results Transfer-adjusted Results

District Ward Electorate
2005 Old Seat New Seat CON
Votes LAB
Votes LIB
Votes NAT
Votes OTH
Votes CON
Votes LAB
Votes LIB
Votes NAT
Votes OTH
Votes Total
Votes CON
Votes LAB
Votes LIB
Votes NAT
Votes OTH
Votes Total
Votes
Neath and Port Talbot Aberdulais 1,500 Neath Neath 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Neath and Port Talbot Allt-wen 1,754 Neath Neath 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Neath and Port Talbot Blaengwrach 1,524 Neath Neath 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Neath and Port Talbot Bryn-côch North 1,935 Neath Neath 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Neath and Port Talbot Bryn-côch South 4,354 Neath Neath 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Neath and Port Talbot Cadoxton 1,415 Neath Neath 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Neath and Port Talbot Cimla 3,356 Neath Neath 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Neath and Port Talbot Crynant 1,533 Neath Neath 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Neath and Port Talbot Cwmllynfell 906 Neath Neath 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Neath and Port Talbot Dyffryn 2,565 Neath Neath 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Neath and Port Talbot Glynneath 2,842 Neath Neath 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Neath and Port Talbot Godre'r graig 1,161 Neath Neath 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Neath and Port Talbot Gwaun-Cae-Gurwen 2,238 Neath Neath 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Neath and Port Talbot Lower Brynamman 1,048 Neath Neath 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Neath and Port Talbot Neath East 4,568 Neath Neath 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Neath and Port Talbot Neath North 3,223 Neath Neath 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Neath and Port Talbot Neath South 3,665 Neath Neath 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Neath and Port Talbot Onllwyn 955 Neath Neath 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Neath and Port Talbot Pelenna 954 Neath Neath 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Neath and Port Talbot Pontardawe 3,971 Neath Neath 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Neath and Port Talbot Resolven 2,449 Neath Neath 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Neath and Port Talbot Rhos 2,053 Neath Neath 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Neath and Port Talbot Seven Sisters 1,558 Neath Neath 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Neath and Port Talbot Tonna 1,965 Neath Neath 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Neath and Port Talbot Trebanos 1,091 Neath Neath 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Neath and Port Talbot Ystalyfera 2,399 Neath Neath 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Swansea Clydach [2] 11 Neath Gower 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total Neath 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Neath at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

Party General
Election 2005
Votes Local Election
Turnout-adjusted
Votes Votes to
transfer
away Votes to
transfer
into Ward Transfers needed

CON 4,136 0 0 4,136 Transfer in 11.5% (= 4136 / 35817) of ward's transfer pool votes

LAB 18,835 0 0 18,835 Transfer in 52.6% (= 18835 / 35817) of ward's transfer pool votes

LIB 5,112 0 0 5,112 Transfer in 14.3% (= 5112 / 35817) of ward's transfer pool votes

NAT 6,125 0 0 6,125 Transfer in 17.1% (= 6125 / 35817) of ward's transfer pool votes

OTH 1,609 0 0 1,609 Transfer in 4.5% (= 1609 / 35817) of ward's transfer pool votes

Total 35,817 0 35,817 35,817

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

Old seat: Gower

The main table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the old seat of Gower. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results, and the third block has the transfer-adjusted results. Details of the transfer calculation are given below this table.

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Gower at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

Party General
Election 2005
Votes Local Election
Turnout-adjusted
Votes Votes to
transfer
away Votes to
transfer
into Ward Transfers needed

CON 10,083 0 0 10,083 Transfer in 25.5% (= 10083 / 39542) of ward's transfer pool votes

LAB 16,786 0 0 16,786 Transfer in 42.5% (= 16786 / 39542) of ward's transfer pool votes

LIB 7,291 0 0 7,291 Transfer in 18.4% (= 7291 / 39542) of ward's transfer pool votes

NAT 3,089 0 0 3,089 Transfer in 7.8% (= 3089 / 39542) of ward's transfer pool votes

OTH 2,293 0 0 2,293 Transfer in 5.8% (= 2293 / 39542) of ward's transfer pool votes

Total 39,542 0 39,542 39,542

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

New seat: Gower

The new seat of Gower is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

District Ward Electorate
2005 Old Seat New Seat CON
Votes LAB
Votes LIB
Votes NAT
Votes OTH
Votes Total
Votes

Swansea Bishopston 2,807 Gower Gower 0 0 0 0 0 0

Swansea Clydach [1] 5,760 Gower Gower 0 0 0 0 0 0

Swansea Clydach [2] 11 Neath Gower 0 0 0 0 0 0

Swansea Fairwood 2,279 Gower Gower 0 0 0 0 0 0

Swansea Gorseinon 2,639 Gower Gower 0 0 0 0 0 0

Swansea Gower 3,089 Gower Gower 0 0 0 0 0 0

Swansea Gowerton 3,806 Gower Gower 0 0 0 0 0 0

Swansea Kingsbridge 3,245 Gower Gower 0 0 0 0 0 0

Swansea Llangyfelach 3,666 Gower Gower 0 0 0 0 0 0

Swansea Lower Loughor 1,793 Gower Gower 0 0 0 0 0 0

Swansea Mawr 1,493 Gower Gower 0 0 0 0 0 0

Swansea Newton 2,869 Gower Gower 0 0 0 0 0 0

Swansea Oystermouth 3,483 Gower Gower 0 0 0 0 0 0

Swansea Penclawdd 3,031 Gower Gower 0 0 0 0 0 0

Swansea Penllergaer 1,915 Gower Gower 0 0 0 0 0 0

Swansea Pennard 2,237 Gower Gower 0 0 0 0 0 0

Swansea Penyrheol 4,474 Gower Gower 0 0 0 0 0 0

Swansea Pontardulais 4,298 Gower Gower 0 0 0 0 0 0

Swansea Upper Loughor 2,133 Gower Gower 0 0 0 0 0 0

Swansea West Cross 5,507 Gower Gower 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total Gower 0 0 0 0 0 0

And these are the implied results for 2005 for the new seat of Gower.

					Actual Results					Turnout-adjusted Results						Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2005	Old Seat	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	NAT Votes	OTH Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	NAT Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	NAT Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Neath and Port Talbot	Aberdulais	1,500	Neath	Neath	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Neath and Port Talbot	Allt-wen	1,754	Neath	Neath	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Neath and Port Talbot	Blaengwrach	1,524	Neath	Neath	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Neath and Port Talbot	Bryn-côch North	1,935	Neath	Neath	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Neath and Port Talbot	Bryn-côch South	4,354	Neath	Neath	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Neath and Port Talbot	Cadoxton	1,415	Neath	Neath	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Neath and Port Talbot	Cimla	3,356	Neath	Neath	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Neath and Port Talbot	Crynant	1,533	Neath	Neath	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Neath and Port Talbot	Cwmllynfell	906	Neath	Neath	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Neath and Port Talbot	Dyffryn	2,565	Neath	Neath	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Neath and Port Talbot	Glynneath	2,842	Neath	Neath	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Neath and Port Talbot	Godre'r graig	1,161	Neath	Neath	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Neath and Port Talbot	Gwaun-Cae-Gurwen	2,238	Neath	Neath	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Neath and Port Talbot	Lower Brynamman	1,048	Neath	Neath	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Neath and Port Talbot	Neath East	4,568	Neath	Neath	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Neath and Port Talbot	Neath North	3,223	Neath	Neath	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Neath and Port Talbot	Neath South	3,665	Neath	Neath	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Neath and Port Talbot	Onllwyn	955	Neath	Neath	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Neath and Port Talbot	Pelenna	954	Neath	Neath	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Neath and Port Talbot	Pontardawe	3,971	Neath	Neath	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Neath and Port Talbot	Resolven	2,449	Neath	Neath	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Neath and Port Talbot	Rhos	2,053	Neath	Neath	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Neath and Port Talbot	Seven Sisters	1,558	Neath	Neath	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Neath and Port Talbot	Tonna	1,965	Neath	Neath	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Neath and Port Talbot	Trebanos	1,091	Neath	Neath	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Neath and Port Talbot	Ystalyfera	2,399	Neath	Neath	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Swansea	Clydach [2]	11	Neath	Gower	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	Total		Neath							0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Party	General Election 2005 Votes	Local Election Turnout-adjusted Votes	Votes to transfer away	Votes to transfer into	Ward Transfers needed
CON	4,136	0	0	4,136	Transfer in 11.5% (= 4136 / 35817) of ward's transfer pool votes
LAB	18,835	0	0	18,835	Transfer in 52.6% (= 18835 / 35817) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB	5,112	0	0	5,112	Transfer in 14.3% (= 5112 / 35817) of ward's transfer pool votes
NAT	6,125	0	0	6,125	Transfer in 17.1% (= 6125 / 35817) of ward's transfer pool votes
OTH	1,609	0	0	1,609	Transfer in 4.5% (= 1609 / 35817) of ward's transfer pool votes
Total	35,817	0	35,817	35,817