New Boundaries 2013 Calculation

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2010 had the new boundaries for Hampshire East been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2010. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Due to changes in ward boundaries, some new wards are divided among several old constituencies (and sometimes in Scotland between two new constituencies). Such wards are shown divided into several parts, called [1], [2], and so on.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2010 from the period 2007-2011. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed. Where zero votes are shown, the ward results have not yet been acquired, and the implied result is still provisional and will be improved later.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% of its votes from each ward. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done on a ward-by-ward basis using these common percentages.

List of old seats forming part of Hampshire East

Old seat: Meon Valley

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the old seat of Meon Valley. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. Details of the transfer calculation are given below this table.

Old seat: Meon Valley				Actual Results				Turnout-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Election Year	Electorate 2010	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
East Hampshire	Clanfield and Finchdean	2011	3,917	2,183	503	914	0	1,707	393	715	0	2,815
East Hampshire	Horndean Catherington and Lovedean	2011	1,975	589	0	258	0	987	0	432	0	1,419
East Hampshire	Horndean Downs	2011	2,005	630	111	236	0	929	164	348	0	1,441
East Hampshire	Horndean Hazleton and Blendworth	2011	2,024	693	0	218	0	1,107	0	348	0	1,455
East Hampshire	Horndean Kings	2011	2,515	626	152	420	0	945	229	634	0	1,808
East Hampshire	Horndean Murray	2011	1,936	501	143	224	0	803	229	359	0	1,391
East Hampshire	Rowlands Castle	2011	2,133	758	100	427	0	904	119	509	0	1,532
Havant	Cowplain	2010	7,411	2,993	616	1,483	0	3,131	644	1,551	0	5,326
Havant	Hart Plain	2010	7,529	2,424	657	1,671	0	2,760	748	1,903	0	5,411
Havant	Waterloo	2010	7,752	2,922	466	1,646	205	3,107	496	1,750	218	5,571
Winchester	Bishops Waltham	2010	5,427	1,552	224	1,479	779	1,501	217	1,430	753	3,901
Winchester	Boarhunt and Southwick	2008	1,033	294	16	273	0	374	20	348	0	742
Winchester	Cheriton and Bishops Sutton	2010	1,773	866	52	503	0	777	47	451	0	1,275
Winchester	Denmead	2010	5,389	2,535	219	1,142	0	2,520	218	1,135	0	3,873
Winchester	Droxford, Soberton and Hambledon	2010	1,686	910	41	419	0	805	36	371	0	1,212
Winchester	Owslebury and Curdridge	2010	3,156	1,330	96	983	0	1,252	90	926	0	2,268
Winchester	Shedfield	2010	3,132	1,497	122	743	0	1,427	116	708	0	2,251
Winchester	Swanmore and Newtown	2010	3,425	1,549	115	1,024	0	1,419	105	938	0	2,462
Winchester	Upper Meon Valley	2011	1,533	724	143	0	0	920	182	0	0	1,102
Winchester	Whiteley	2011	2,269	483	70	495	0	752	109	770	0	1,631
Winchester	Wickham	2011	3,271	570	116	942	0	823	168	1,360	0	2,351
	Total		71,291					28,950	4,330	16,986	971	51,237

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Meon Valley at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

Party	General Election 2010 Votes	Local Election Turnout-adjusted Votes	Votes to transfer away	Votes to transfer into	Ward Transfers needed
CON	28,818	28,950	132	0	Transfer away 0.5% (= 132 / 28950) of ward's CON votes
LAB	3,266	4,330	1,064	0	Transfer away 24.6% (= 1064 / 4330) of ward's LAB votes
LIB	16,693	16,986	293	0	Transfer away 1.7% (= 293 / 16986) of ward's LIB votes
OTH	2,461	971	0	1,490	Transfer in 100.0% (= 1490 / 1490) of ward's transfer pool votes
Total	51,238	51,237	1,490	1,490

Main table for Meon Valley

The main table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Meon Valley, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

Old seat: Hampshire East

Old seat: Meon Valley	Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2010	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
East Hampshire	Clanfield and Finchdean	3,917	Hampshire East	1,699	296	703	117	2,815
East Hampshire	Horndean Catherington and Lovedean	1,975	Hampshire East	982	0	425	12	1,419
East Hampshire	Horndean Downs	2,005	Hampshire East	925	124	342	51	1,441
East Hampshire	Horndean Hazleton and Blendworth	2,024	Hampshire East	1,102	0	342	11	1,455
East Hampshire	Horndean Kings	2,515	Hampshire East	941	173	623	72	1,808
East Hampshire	Horndean Murray	1,936	Hampshire East	799	173	353	66	1,391
East Hampshire	Rowlands Castle	2,133	Hampshire East	900	90	500	42	1,532
Havant	Cowplain	7,411	Hampshire East	3,117	486	1,524	199	5,326
Havant	Hart Plain	7,529	Havant	2,747	564	1,870	229	5,411
Havant	Waterloo	7,752	Havant	3,093	374	1,720	384	5,571
Winchester	Bishops Waltham	5,427	Winchester	1,494	164	1,405	838	3,901
Winchester	Boarhunt and Southwick	1,033	Winchester	372	15	342	13	742
Winchester	Cheriton and Bishops Sutton	1,773	Winchester	773	35	443	23	1,275
Winchester	Denmead	5,389	Winchester	2,509	164	1,115	85	3,873
Winchester	Droxford, Soberton and Hambledon	1,686	Winchester	801	27	365	19	1,212
Winchester	Owslebury and Curdridge	3,156	Winchester	1,246	68	910	44	2,268
Winchester	Shedfield	3,132	Winchester	1,420	87	696	47	2,251
Winchester	Swanmore and Newtown	3,425	Winchester	1,413	79	922	48	2,462
Winchester	Upper Meon Valley	1,533	Winchester	916	137	0	49	1,102
Winchester	Whiteley	2,269	Fareham	749	82	757	43	1,631
Winchester	Wickham	3,271	Fareham	819	127	1,337	68	2,351
	Total	71,291		28,817	3,265	16,694	2,460	51,237

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the old seat of Hampshire East. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. Details of the transfer calculation are given below this table.

Old seat: Hampshire East				Actual Results				Turnout-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Election Year	Electorate 2010	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
East Hampshire	Alton Amery	2011	1,887	409	146	318	0	624	223	486	0	1,333
East Hampshire	Alton Ashdell	2011	1,906	651	0	372	0	857	0	490	0	1,347
East Hampshire	Alton Eastbrooke	2011	1,982	358	128	269	0	664	237	499	0	1,400
East Hampshire	Alton Westbrooke	2011	2,190	467	143	408	0	710	217	620	0	1,547
East Hampshire	Alton Whitedown	2011	2,290	578	141	468	0	788	192	638	0	1,618
East Hampshire	Alton Wooteys	2011	1,822	344	141	273	0	584	239	464	0	1,287
East Hampshire	Binsted and Bentley	2011	2,306	898	0	304	0	1,217	0	412	0	1,629
East Hampshire	Bramshott and Liphook	2011	6,514	4,377	1,056	2,706	0	2,475	597	1,530	0	4,602
East Hampshire	Downland	2011	1,991	883	0	273	0	1,074	0	332	0	1,406
East Hampshire	East Meon	2011	1,872	-1	0	0	0	1,322	0	0	0	1,322
East Hampshire	Four Marks and Medstead	2011	4,846	3,432	411	682	0	2,596	311	516	0	3,423
East Hampshire	Froxfield and Steep	2011	1,978	-1	0	0	0	1,397	0	0	0	1,397
East Hampshire	Grayshott	2011	1,878	810	0	167	0	1,100	0	227	0	1,327
East Hampshire	Headley	2011	4,471	2,911	0	1,045	0	2,324	0	834	0	3,158
East Hampshire	Holybourne and Froyle	2011	2,091	810	0	370	0	1,014	0	463	0	1,477
East Hampshire	Lindford	2011	2,106	545	0	160	134	966	0	284	238	1,488
East Hampshire	Liss	2011	3,969	2,258	880	419	0	1,780	694	330	0	2,804
East Hampshire	Petersfield Bell Hill	2011	1,942	572	193	235	0	785	265	322	0	1,372
East Hampshire	Petersfield Causeway	2011	2,035	511	182	275	0	759	270	408	0	1,437
East Hampshire	Petersfield Heath	2011	1,660	-1	0	0	0	1,173	0	0	0	1,173
East Hampshire	Petersfield Rother	2011	1,940	844	344	0	0	974	397	0	0	1,371
East Hampshire	Petersfield St Marys	2011	2,093	717	340	0	0	1,003	476	0	0	1,479
East Hampshire	Petersfield St Peters	2011	1,819	-1	0	0	0	1,285	0	0	0	1,285
East Hampshire	Ropley and Tisted	2011	1,763	-1	0	0	0	1,245	0	0	0	1,245
East Hampshire	Selborne	2011	1,811	734	129	151	0	926	163	191	0	1,280
East Hampshire	The Hangers and Forest	2011	1,959	726	0	0	0	1,384	0	0	0	1,384
East Hampshire	Whitehill Chase	2011	1,785	318	0	330	0	619	0	642	0	1,261
East Hampshire	Whitehill Deadwater	2011	1,980	0	115	427	0	0	297	1,102	0	1,399
East Hampshire	Whitehill Hogmoor	2011	1,965	193	60	272	128	410	128	578	272	1,388
East Hampshire	Whitehill Pinewood	2011	2,028	0	0	260	190	0	0	828	605	1,433
East Hampshire	Whitehill Walldown	2011	1,769	252	0	524	0	406	0	844	0	1,250
	Total		72,648					32,461	4,706	13,040	1,115	51,322

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Hampshire East at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

Party	General Election 2010 Votes	Local Election Turnout-adjusted Votes	Votes to transfer away	Votes to transfer into	Ward Transfers needed
CON	29,137	32,461	3,324	0	Transfer away 10.2% (= 3324 / 32461) of ward's CON votes
LAB	4,043	4,706	663	0	Transfer away 14.1% (= 663 / 4706) of ward's LAB votes
LIB	15,640	13,040	0	2,600	Transfer in 65.3% (= 2600 / 3982) of ward's transfer pool votes
OTH	2,497	1,115	0	1,382	Transfer in 34.7% (= 1382 / 3982) of ward's transfer pool votes
Total	51,317	51,322	3,982	3,982

Main table for Hampshire East

The main table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Hampshire East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.