New Boundaries 2013 Calculation

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2010 had the new boundaries for High Peak been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2010. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Due to changes in ward boundaries, some new wards are divided among several old constituencies (and sometimes in Scotland between two new constituencies). Such wards are shown divided into several parts, called [1], [2], and so on.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2010 from the period 2007-2011. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed. Where zero votes are shown, the ward results have not yet been acquired, and the implied result is still provisional and will be improved later.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% of its votes from each ward. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done on a ward-by-ward basis using these common percentages.

List of old seats forming part of High Peak

Old seat: Derbyshire Dales

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the old seat of Derbyshire Dales. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. Details of the transfer calculation are given below this table.

Old seat: Derbyshire Dales				Actual Results				Turnout-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Election Year	Electorate 2010	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Amber Valley	Alport	2011	2,127	850	359	0	0	1,098	464	0	0	1,562
Amber Valley	Crich	2011	1,976	531	290	229	0	733	401	316	0	1,450
Amber Valley	South West Parishes	2011	2,196	-1	0	0	0	1,612	0	0	0	1,612
Derbyshire Dales	Ashbourne North	2011	2,988	1,458	407	0	0	1,715	479	0	0	2,194
Derbyshire Dales	Ashbourne South	2011	3,612	1,466	464	0	0	2,014	637	0	0	2,651
Derbyshire Dales	Bakewell	2011	4,003	3,744	773	0	0	2,435	503	0	0	2,938
Derbyshire Dales	Bradwell	2011	1,568	430	0	0	364	623	0	0	528	1,151
Derbyshire Dales	Brailsford	2011	1,336	517	0	0	181	726	0	0	254	980
Derbyshire Dales	Calver	2011	1,576	-1	0	0	0	1,157	0	0	0	1,157
Derbyshire Dales	Carsington Water	2011	1,537	-1	0	0	0	1,128	0	0	0	1,128
Derbyshire Dales	Chatsworth	2011	1,448	-1	0	0	0	1,063	0	0	0	1,063
Derbyshire Dales	Clifton and Bradley	2011	1,517	512	0	0	412	617	0	0	496	1,113
Derbyshire Dales	Darley Dale	2011	4,413	2,018	1,644	2,154	0	1,124	916	1,200	0	3,240
Derbyshire Dales	Dovedale and Parwich	2011	1,416	594	181	0	0	797	243	0	0	1,040
Derbyshire Dales	Doveridge and Sudbury	2011	1,538	660	148	0	0	922	207	0	0	1,129
Derbyshire Dales	Hartington and Taddington	2011	1,361	-1	0	0	0	999	0	0	0	999
Derbyshire Dales	Hathersage and Eyam	2011	3,185	1,690	1,167	711	0	1,107	765	466	0	2,338
Derbyshire Dales	Hulland	2011	1,499	-1	0	0	0	1,100	0	0	0	1,100
Derbyshire Dales	Lathkill and Bradford	2011	1,333	349	0	0	390	462	0	0	516	978
Derbyshire Dales	Litton and Longstone	2011	1,413	-1	0	0	0	1,037	0	0	0	1,037
Derbyshire Dales	Masson	2011	2,500	1,159	1,105	0	0	939	896	0	0	1,835
Derbyshire Dales	Matlock All Saints	2011	4,341	2,334	709	2,435	0	1,358	412	1,416	0	3,186
Derbyshire Dales	Matlock St Giles	2011	4,396	2,011	1,194	2,275	0	1,184	703	1,340	0	3,227
Derbyshire Dales	Norbury	2011	1,364	-1	0	0	0	1,001	0	0	0	1,001
Derbyshire Dales	Stanton	2011	1,476	246	173	84	0	530	373	181	0	1,084
Derbyshire Dales	Tideswell	2011	1,513	338	157	244	0	508	236	367	0	1,111
Derbyshire Dales	Winster and South Darley	2011	1,430	187	690	0	0	224	826	0	0	1,050
Derbyshire Dales	Wirksworth	2011	4,670	1,617	3,364	0	1,016	924	1,923	0	581	3,428
	Total		63,732					29,137	9,984	5,286	2,375	46,782

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Derbyshire Dales at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

Party	General Election 2010 Votes	Local Election Turnout-adjusted Votes	Votes to transfer away	Votes to transfer into	Ward Transfers needed
CON	24,378	29,137	4,759	0	Transfer away 16.3% (= 4759 / 29137) of ward's CON votes
LAB	9,061	9,984	923	0	Transfer away 9.2% (= 923 / 9984) of ward's LAB votes
LIB	10,512	5,286	0	5,226	Transfer in 92.0% (= 5226 / 5680) of ward's transfer pool votes
OTH	2,829	2,375	0	454	Transfer in 8.0% (= 454 / 5680) of ward's transfer pool votes
Total	46,780	46,782	5,680	5,680

Main table for Derbyshire Dales

The main table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Derbyshire Dales, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

Old seat: High Peak

Old seat: Derbyshire Dales	Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2010	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Amber Valley	Alport	2,127	Derbyshire Dales	919	421	204	18	1,562
Amber Valley	Crich	1,976	Derbyshire Dales	613	364	460	13	1,450
Amber Valley	South West Parishes	2,196	Derbyshire Dales	1,349	0	242	21	1,612
Derbyshire Dales	Ashbourne North	2,988	Derbyshire Dales	1,435	435	298	26	2,194
Derbyshire Dales	Ashbourne South	3,612	Derbyshire Dales	1,685	578	357	31	2,651
Derbyshire Dales	Bakewell	4,003	Derbyshire Dales	2,037	456	409	36	2,938
Derbyshire Dales	Bradwell	1,568	High Peak	521	0	94	536	1,151
Derbyshire Dales	Brailsford	1,336	Derbyshire Dales	607	0	109	263	980
Derbyshire Dales	Calver	1,576	Derbyshire Dales	968	0	174	15	1,157
Derbyshire Dales	Carsington Water	1,537	Derbyshire Dales	944	0	170	15	1,128
Derbyshire Dales	Chatsworth	1,448	Derbyshire Dales	889	0	160	14	1,063
Derbyshire Dales	Clifton and Bradley	1,517	Derbyshire Dales	516	0	93	504	1,113
Derbyshire Dales	Darley Dale	4,413	Derbyshire Dales	940	831	1,447	21	3,240
Derbyshire Dales	Dovedale and Parwich	1,416	Derbyshire Dales	667	221	140	12	1,040
Derbyshire Dales	Doveridge and Sudbury	1,538	Derbyshire Dales	771	188	156	14	1,129
Derbyshire Dales	Hartington and Taddington	1,361	Derbyshire Dales	836	0	150	13	999
Derbyshire Dales	Hathersage and Eyam	3,185	High Peak	926	694	697	20	2,338
Derbyshire Dales	Hulland	1,499	Derbyshire Dales	920	0	165	14	1,100
Derbyshire Dales	Lathkill and Bradford	1,333	Derbyshire Dales	387	0	69	522	978
Derbyshire Dales	Litton and Longstone	1,413	Derbyshire Dales	868	0	156	14	1,037
Derbyshire Dales	Masson	2,500	Derbyshire Dales	786	813	217	19	1,835
Derbyshire Dales	Matlock All Saints	4,341	Derbyshire Dales	1,136	374	1,655	21	3,186
Derbyshire Dales	Matlock St Giles	4,396	Derbyshire Dales	991	638	1,578	21	3,227
Derbyshire Dales	Norbury	1,364	Derbyshire Dales	838	0	150	13	1,001
Derbyshire Dales	Stanton	1,476	Derbyshire Dales	443	339	292	10	1,084
Derbyshire Dales	Tideswell	1,513	High Peak	425	214	463	8	1,111
Derbyshire Dales	Winster and South Darley	1,430	Derbyshire Dales	187	750	104	9	1,050
Derbyshire Dales	Wirksworth	4,670	Derbyshire Dales	773	1,745	302	607	3,428
	Total	63,732		24,377	9,061	10,511	2,830	46,782

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the old seat of High Peak. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. Details of the transfer calculation are given below this table.

Old seat: High Peak				Actual Results				Turnout-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Election Year	Electorate 2010	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
High Peak	Barms	2011	1,559	247	329	0	0	466	621	0	0	1,087
High Peak	Blackbrook	2011	3,189	1,116	294	1,026	665	800	211	736	477	2,224
High Peak	Burbage	2011	1,948	566	291	0	0	897	461	0	0	1,358
High Peak	Buxton Central	2011	3,393	907	1,032	150	190	942	1,072	156	197	2,367
High Peak	Chapel East	2011	1,797	294	259	277	0	444	391	418	0	1,253
High Peak	Chapel West	2011	3,353	1,415	721	315	0	1,350	688	301	0	2,339
High Peak	Corbar	2011	3,025	1,491	535	336	0	1,332	478	300	0	2,110
High Peak	Cote Heath	2011	3,030	1,027	1,081	0	0	1,029	1,084	0	0	2,113
High Peak	Dinting	2011	1,521	564	288	0	0	702	359	0	0	1,061
High Peak	Gamesley	2011	1,735	84	389	0	0	215	995	0	0	1,210
High Peak	Hadfield North	2011	1,529	161	317	62	0	318	626	122	0	1,066
High Peak	Hadfield South	2011	3,469	1,167	1,486	0	0	1,064	1,355	0	0	2,419
High Peak	Hayfield	2011	1,662	0	0	409	485	0	0	530	629	1,159
High Peak	Hope Valley	2011	3,243	1,790	0	519	634	1,376	0	399	487	2,262
High Peak	Howard Town	2011	3,292	696	1,396	0	248	683	1,370	0	243	2,296
High Peak	Limestone Peak	2011	1,745	374	224	121	0	633	379	205	0	1,217
High Peak	New Mills East	2011	3,148	703	1,075	389	0	712	1,089	394	0	2,195
High Peak	New Mills West	2011	3,411	896	648	1,049	456	699	506	818	356	2,379
High Peak	Old Glossop	2011	3,741	1,094	1,340	0	686	915	1,121	0	574	2,610
High Peak	Padfield	2011	2,084	338	354	39	88	600	628	69	156	1,453
High Peak	Sett	2011	1,680	396	0	148	281	562	0	210	399	1,171
High Peak	Simmondley	2011	3,759	1,456	1,162	497	0	1,225	978	418	0	2,621
High Peak	St John's	2011	1,499	429	0	255	0	656	0	390	0	1,046
High Peak	Stone Bench	2011	3,291	697	1,289	0	0	805	1,490	0	0	2,295
High Peak	Temple	2011	1,504	524	272	0	0	690	358	0	0	1,048
High Peak	Tintwistle	2011	1,685	379	393	0	0	577	598	0	0	1,175
High Peak	Whaley Bridge	2011	5,171	1,724	807	2,155	1,657	980	459	1,225	942	3,606
High Peak	Whitfield	2011	1,715	135	442	55	0	255	836	104	0	1,195
	Total		72,178					20,927	18,153	6,795	4,460	50,335

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of High Peak at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

Party	General Election 2010 Votes	Local Election Turnout-adjusted Votes	Votes to transfer away	Votes to transfer into	Ward Transfers needed
CON	20,587	20,927	340	0	Transfer away 1.6% (= 340 / 20927) of ward's CON votes
LAB	15,910	18,153	2,243	0	Transfer away 12.4% (= 2243 / 18153) of ward's LAB votes
LIB	10,993	6,795	0	4,198	Transfer in 100.0% (= 4198 / 4198) of ward's transfer pool votes
OTH	2,847	4,460	1,613	0	Transfer away 36.2% (= 1613 / 4460) of ward's OTH votes
Total	50,337	50,335	4,198	4,198

Main table for High Peak

The main table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of High Peak, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.