Lancaster and Fleetwood: New Boundaries Calculation

Due to changes in ward boundaries, some new wards are divided among several old constituencies (though never between two new constituencies). Such wards are shown divided into several parts, called [1], [2], and so on.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election from 2003, 2004 or 2006. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed. Where zero votes are shown, the ward is not needed because the entire old seat is unsplit.

Calculation method: There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% of its votes from each ward. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done on a ward-by-ward basis using these common percentages.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

The old seat(s) needed are:

• Morecambe and Lunesdale
• Blackpool North and Fleetwood
• Lancaster and Wyre

Old seat: Morecambe and Lunesdale

					Actual Results				Turnout-adjusted Results					Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2005	Old Seat	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
City Of Lancaster	Bare	3,368	Morecambe and Lunesdale	Morecambe and Lunesdale	1,074	198	0	850	1,046	193	0	828	2,067	1,316	581	168	0	2,067
City Of Lancaster	Bolton-le-Sands	3,466	Morecambe and Lunesdale	Morecambe and Lunesdale	287	0	0	784	570	0	0	1,556	2,126	1,078	730	317	0	2,126
City Of Lancaster	Carnforth	3,408	Morecambe and Lunesdale	Morecambe and Lunesdale	184	661	0	534	279	1,002	0	809	2,090	543	1,381	164	0	2,090
City Of Lancaster	Halton-with-Aughton	1,841	Morecambe and Lunesdale	Morecambe and Lunesdale	95	0	0	666	141	0	0	988	1,129	463	463	201	0	1,129
City Of Lancaster	Harbour	4,602	Morecambe and Lunesdale	Morecambe and Lunesdale	267	1,669	0	1,316	232	1,449	0	1,142	2,823	605	1,985	232	0	2,823
City Of Lancaster	Heysham Central	3,502	Morecambe and Lunesdale	Morecambe and Lunesdale	276	288	0	1,074	362	378	0	1,408	2,148	821	1,039	287	0	2,148
City Of Lancaster	Heysham North	3,608	Morecambe and Lunesdale	Morecambe and Lunesdale	242	715	0	611	342	1,009	0	862	2,213	623	1,413	175	0	2,213
City Of Lancaster	Heysham South	5,098	Morecambe and Lunesdale	Morecambe and Lunesdale	0	1,267	0	1,911	0	1,247	0	1,880	3,127	614	2,129	383	0	3,127
City Of Lancaster	Kellet	1,778	Morecambe and Lunesdale	Morecambe and Lunesdale	503	0	0	324	663	0	0	427	1,090	802	200	87	0	1,090
City Of Lancaster	Lower Lune Valley [2]	929	Morecambe and Lunesdale	Lancaster and Fleetwood	1,227	200	1,408	191	231	38	265	36	570	242	54	272	0	570
City Of Lancaster	Overton	1,894	Morecambe and Lunesdale	Morecambe and Lunesdale	160	0	0	429	316	0	0	846	1,162	592	397	172	0	1,162
City Of Lancaster	Poulton	5,154	Morecambe and Lunesdale	Morecambe and Lunesdale	231	1,417	0	1,666	220	1,352	0	1,589	3,161	739	2,098	323	0	3,161
City Of Lancaster	Silverdale	1,714	Morecambe and Lunesdale	Morecambe and Lunesdale	499	0	0	382	595	0	0	456	1,051	743	214	92	0	1,051
City Of Lancaster	Skerton East	4,860	Morecambe and Lunesdale	Morecambe and Lunesdale	233	1,677	0	736	263	1,889	0	829	2,981	533	2,278	168	0	2,981
City Of Lancaster	Skerton West	4,557	Morecambe and Lunesdale	Morecambe and Lunesdale	297	1,896	0	926	266	1,699	0	830	2,795	537	2,088	169	0	2,795
City Of Lancaster	Slyne-with-Hest	3,461	Morecambe and Lunesdale	Morecambe and Lunesdale	1,571	0	0	862	1,371	0	0	752	2,123	1,616	353	153	0	2,123
City Of Lancaster	Torrisholme	5,758	Morecambe and Lunesdale	Morecambe and Lunesdale	1,216	776	1,728	1,262	862	550	1,225	895	3,532	1,154	970	1,407	0	3,532
City Of Lancaster	Upper Lune Valley	1,910	Morecambe and Lunesdale	Morecambe and Lunesdale	653	0	279	0	821	0	351	0	1,172	821	0	351	0	1,172
City Of Lancaster	Warton	1,924	Morecambe and Lunesdale	Morecambe and Lunesdale	192	0	0	386	392	0	0	788	1,180	649	369	160	0	1,180
City Of Lancaster	Westgate	5,046	Morecambe and Lunesdale	Morecambe and Lunesdale	297	471	0	1,921	342	542	0	2,211	3,095	1,064	1,580	450	0	3,095
	Total		Morecambe and Lunesdale						9,314	11,348	1,841	19,132	41,635	15,563	20,331	5,741	0	41,635

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Morecambe and Lunesdale at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

Party	General Election 2005 Votes	Local Election Turnout-adjusted Votes	Votes to transfer away	Votes to transfer into	Ward Transfers needed
CON	15,563	9,314	0	6,249	Transfer in 32.7% (= 6249 / 19132) of ward's transfer pool votes
LAB	20,331	11,348	0	8,983	Transfer in 47.0% (= 8983 / 19132) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB	5,741	1,841	0	3,900	Transfer in 20.4% (= 3900 / 19132) of ward's transfer pool votes
OTH	0	19,132	19,132	0	Transfer away 100.0% (= 19132 / 19132) of ward's OTH votes
Total	41,635	41,635	19,132	19,132

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

Old seat: Blackpool North and Fleetwood

					Actual Results				Turnout-adjusted Results					Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2005	Old Seat	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Blackpool	Anchorsholme	5,494	Blackpool North and Fleetwood	Blackpool North and Cleveleys	1,738	1,459	2,556	0	949	796	1,395	0	3,140	839	743	1,489	67	3,140
Blackpool	Bispham	4,967	Blackpool North and Fleetwood	Blackpool North and Cleveleys	3,058	1,544	399	0	1,736	876	226	0	2,838	1,535	818	376	107	2,838
Blackpool	Brunswick [1]	206	Blackpool North and Fleetwood	Blackpool South	1,040	2,447	320	200	31	72	9	6	118	27	67	13	9	118
Blackpool	Claremont	5,601	Blackpool North and Fleetwood	Blackpool North and Cleveleys	1,447	2,422	290	161	1,072	1,795	215	119	3,201	948	1,676	356	219	3,201
Blackpool	Greenlands	5,524	Blackpool North and Fleetwood	Blackpool North and Cleveleys	2,020	2,355	445	0	1,323	1,543	291	0	3,157	1,170	1,441	439	106	3,157
Blackpool	Ingthorpe	5,187	Blackpool North and Fleetwood	Blackpool North and Cleveleys	1,592	2,710	454	0	992	1,689	283	0	2,964	877	1,577	414	94	2,964
Blackpool	Norbreck	5,216	Blackpool North and Fleetwood	Blackpool North and Cleveleys	3,639	1,577	378	0	1,939	840	201	0	2,980	1,714	784	363	116	2,980
Blackpool	Warbreck	5,371	Blackpool North and Fleetwood	Blackpool North and Cleveleys	2,376	1,661	927	0	1,469	1,027	573	0	3,069	1,299	959	711	98	3,069
Wyre	Bourne	5,126	Blackpool North and Fleetwood	Blackpool North and Cleveleys	600	2,018	0	0	671	2,258	0	0	2,929	593	2,109	131	94	2,929
Wyre	Cleveleys Park	4,985	Blackpool North and Fleetwood	Blackpool North and Cleveleys	2,173	2,568	312	0	1,225	1,448	176	0	2,849	1,083	1,352	314	98	2,849
Wyre	Jubilee	3,504	Blackpool North and Fleetwood	Blackpool North and Cleveleys	1,031	937	0	0	1,049	953	0	0	2,002	927	890	107	76	2,002
Wyre	Mount	3,085	Blackpool North and Fleetwood	Lancaster and Fleetwood	823	1,168	0	0	729	1,034	0	0	1,763	644	965	88	63	1,763
Wyre	Park	3,205	Blackpool North and Fleetwood	Lancaster and Fleetwood	493	1,276	0	0	510	1,321	0	0	1,831	451	1,234	85	60	1,831
Wyre	Pharos	4,459	Blackpool North and Fleetwood	Lancaster and Fleetwood	650	2,778	183	0	459	1,961	129	0	2,549	405	1,831	235	75	2,549
Wyre	Rossall	4,829	Blackpool North and Fleetwood	Lancaster and Fleetwood	1,408	2,789	0	0	926	1,834	0	0	2,760	818	1,713	132	94	2,760
Wyre	Staina [1]	27	Blackpool North and Fleetwood	Wyre and Preston North	2,806	2,155	0	0	9	7	0	0	16	7	6	0	0	16
Wyre	Victoria [1]	4,289	Blackpool North and Fleetwood	Blackpool North and Cleveleys	2,446	1,687	0	0	1,451	1,001	0	0	2,452	1,283	935	136	97	2,452
Wyre	Warren	4,671	Blackpool North and Fleetwood	Lancaster and Fleetwood	1,599	2,461	0	0	1,051	1,618	0	0	2,669	929	1,511	132	95	2,669
	Total		Blackpool North and Fleetwood						17,591	22,073	3,498	125	43,287	15,558	20,620	5,531	1,577	43,287

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Blackpool North and Fleetwood at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

Party	General Election 2005 Votes	Local Election Turnout-adjusted Votes	Votes to transfer away	Votes to transfer into	Ward Transfers needed
CON	15,558	17,591	2,033	0	Transfer away 11.6% (= 2033 / 17591) of ward's CON votes
LAB	20,620	22,073	1,453	0	Transfer away 6.6% (= 1453 / 22073) of ward's LAB votes
LIB	5,533	3,498	0	2,035	Transfer in 58.3% (= 2035 / 3489) of ward's transfer pool votes
OTH	1,579	125	0	1,454	Transfer in 41.7% (= 1454 / 3489) of ward's transfer pool votes
Total	43,290	43,287	3,489	3,489

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

Old seat: Lancaster and Wyre

					Actual Results				Turnout-adjusted Results					Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2005	Old Seat	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
City Of Lancaster	Bulk	4,607	Lancaster and Wyre	Lancaster and Fleetwood	0	2,120	212	2,146	0	1,394	139	1,411	2,944	85	2,031	293	533	2,944
City Of Lancaster	Castle	5,020	Lancaster and Wyre	Lancaster and Fleetwood	251	1,315	209	3,584	150	787	125	2,146	3,208	280	1,757	359	810	3,208
City Of Lancaster	Duke's	1,819	Lancaster and Wyre	Lancaster and Fleetwood	27	71	51	407	56	148	107	851	1,162	107	532	199	321	1,162
City Of Lancaster	Ellel	3,525	Lancaster and Wyre	Lancaster and Fleetwood	1,393	268	267	306	1,405	270	269	309	2,253	1,423	409	302	116	2,253
City Of Lancaster	John O'Gaunt	5,408	Lancaster and Wyre	Lancaster and Fleetwood	575	2,167	333	1,068	480	1,808	278	891	3,457	534	2,210	375	336	3,457
City Of Lancaster	Lower Lune Valley [1]	2,642	Lancaster and Wyre	Lancaster and Fleetwood	1,227	200	1,408	191	685	112	786	107	1,690	691	160	797	40	1,690
City Of Lancaster	Scotforth East	3,507	Lancaster and Wyre	Lancaster and Fleetwood	566	312	1,511	230	484	267	1,293	197	2,241	495	356	1,314	74	2,241
City Of Lancaster	Scotforth West	5,073	Lancaster and Wyre	Lancaster and Fleetwood	1,194	1,658	195	2,467	702	975	115	1,451	3,243	790	1,631	273	548	3,243
City Of Lancaster	University	3,835	Lancaster and Wyre	Lancaster and Fleetwood	113	209	559	387	218	404	1,081	748	2,451	263	742	1,162	282	2,451
Wyre	Breck	2,555	Lancaster and Wyre	Wyre and Preston North	1,315	526	0	0	1,166	467	0	0	1,633	1,166	467	0	0	1,633
Wyre	Brock	1,874	Lancaster and Wyre	Wyre and Preston North	425	0	187	0	832	0	366	0	1,198	832	0	366	0	1,198
Wyre	Cabus	1,378	Lancaster and Wyre	Wyre and Preston North	364	301	0	0	482	399	0	0	881	482	399	0	0	881
Wyre	Calder	1,603	Lancaster and Wyre	Wyre and Preston North	292	0	267	0	535	0	489	0	1,024	535	0	489	0	1,024
Wyre	Carleton	3,367	Lancaster and Wyre	Wyre and Preston North	1,346	989	0	0	1,240	911	0	0	2,151	1,240	911	0	0	2,151
Wyre	Catterall	1,758	Lancaster and Wyre	Wyre and Preston North	240	0	532	0	349	0	774	0	1,123	349	0	774	0	1,123
Wyre	Garstang	3,957	Lancaster and Wyre	Wyre and Preston North	2,901	445	1,283	0	1,585	243	701	0	2,529	1,585	243	701	0	2,529
Wyre	Great Eccleston [2]	483	Lancaster and Wyre	Wyre and Preston North	1,503	233	0	0	267	41	0	0	308	267	41	0	0	308
Wyre	Hambleton and Stalmine-with-Staynall	3,493	Lancaster and Wyre	Wyre and Preston North	1,675	1,147	0	0	1,325	907	0	0	2,232	1,325	907	0	0	2,232
Wyre	Hardhorn	2,902	Lancaster and Wyre	Wyre and Preston North	1,517	652	0	0	1,297	558	0	0	1,855	1,297	558	0	0	1,855
Wyre	High Cross	3,076	Lancaster and Wyre	Wyre and Preston North	1,539	1,070	0	0	1,160	806	0	0	1,966	1,160	806	0	0	1,966
Wyre	Norcross	2,996	Lancaster and Wyre	Wyre and Preston North	921	980	0	0	928	987	0	0	1,915	928	987	0	0	1,915
Wyre	Pilling	1,644	Lancaster and Wyre	Lancaster and Fleetwood	342	0	314	0	548	0	503	0	1,051	548	0	503	0	1,051
Wyre	Preesall	4,578	Lancaster and Wyre	Lancaster and Fleetwood	2,883	910	0	750	1,857	586	0	483	2,926	1,886	804	52	182	2,926
Wyre	Staina [2]	4,907	Lancaster and Wyre	Wyre and Preston North	2,806	2,155	0	0	1,774	1,362	0	0	3,136	1,774	1,362	0	0	3,136
Wyre	Tithebarn	3,307	Lancaster and Wyre	Wyre and Preston North	1,533	673	0	0	1,469	645	0	0	2,114	1,469	645	0	0	2,114
Wyre	Victoria [2]	512	Lancaster and Wyre	Blackpool North and Cleveleys	2,446	1,687	0	0	194	134	0	0	328	194	134	0	0	328
Wyre	Wyresdale	1,633	Lancaster and Wyre	Lancaster and Fleetwood	369	0	325	0	555	0	489	0	1,044	555	0	489	0	1,044
	Total		Lancaster and Wyre						21,743	14,211	7,515	8,594	52,063	22,266	18,096	8,453	3,247	52,063

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Lancaster and Wyre at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

Party	General Election 2005 Votes	Local Election Turnout-adjusted Votes	Votes to transfer away	Votes to transfer into	Ward Transfers needed
CON	22,266	21,743	0	523	Transfer in 9.8% (= 523 / 5345) of ward's transfer pool votes
LAB	18,095	14,211	0	3,884	Transfer in 72.7% (= 3884 / 5345) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB	8,453	7,515	0	938	Transfer in 17.5% (= 938 / 5345) of ward's transfer pool votes
OTH	3,247	8,594	5,347	0	Transfer away 62.2% (= 5347 / 8594) of ward's OTH votes
Total	52,061	52,063	5,345	5,345

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

New seat: Lancaster and Fleetwood

District	Ward	Electorate 2005	Old Seat	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
City Of Lancaster	Bulk	4,607	Lancaster and Wyre	Lancaster and Fleetwood	85	2,031	293	533	2,944
City Of Lancaster	Castle	5,020	Lancaster and Wyre	Lancaster and Fleetwood	280	1,757	359	810	3,208
City Of Lancaster	Duke's	1,819	Lancaster and Wyre	Lancaster and Fleetwood	107	532	199	321	1,162
City Of Lancaster	Ellel	3,525	Lancaster and Wyre	Lancaster and Fleetwood	1,423	409	302	116	2,253
City Of Lancaster	John O'Gaunt	5,408	Lancaster and Wyre	Lancaster and Fleetwood	534	2,210	375	336	3,457
City Of Lancaster	Lower Lune Valley [1]	2,642	Lancaster and Wyre	Lancaster and Fleetwood	691	160	797	40	1,690
City Of Lancaster	Lower Lune Valley [2]	929	Morecambe and Lunesdale	Lancaster and Fleetwood	242	54	272	0	570
Wyre	Mount	3,085	Blackpool North and Fleetwood	Lancaster and Fleetwood	644	965	88	63	1,763
Wyre	Park	3,205	Blackpool North and Fleetwood	Lancaster and Fleetwood	451	1,234	85	60	1,831
Wyre	Pharos	4,459	Blackpool North and Fleetwood	Lancaster and Fleetwood	405	1,831	235	75	2,549
Wyre	Pilling	1,644	Lancaster and Wyre	Lancaster and Fleetwood	548	0	503	0	1,051
Wyre	Preesall	4,578	Lancaster and Wyre	Lancaster and Fleetwood	1,886	804	52	182	2,926
Wyre	Rossall	4,829	Blackpool North and Fleetwood	Lancaster and Fleetwood	818	1,713	132	94	2,760
City Of Lancaster	Scotforth East	3,507	Lancaster and Wyre	Lancaster and Fleetwood	495	356	1,314	74	2,241
City Of Lancaster	Scotforth West	5,073	Lancaster and Wyre	Lancaster and Fleetwood	790	1,631	273	548	3,243
City Of Lancaster	University	3,835	Lancaster and Wyre	Lancaster and Fleetwood	263	742	1,162	282	2,451
Wyre	Warren	4,671	Blackpool North and Fleetwood	Lancaster and Fleetwood	929	1,511	132	95	2,669
Wyre	Wyresdale	1,633	Lancaster and Wyre	Lancaster and Fleetwood	555	0	489	0	1,044
	Total			Lancaster and Fleetwood	11,156	17,948	7,070	3,637	39,812

And these are the implied results for 2005 for the new seat of Lancaster and Fleetwood.