Leeds Central: New Boundaries Calculation

Due to changes in ward boundaries, some new wards are divided among several old constituencies (though never between two new constituencies). Such wards are shown divided into several parts, called [1], [2], and so on.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election from 2003, 2004 or 2006. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed. Where zero votes are shown, the ward is not needed because the entire old seat is unsplit.

Calculation method: There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% of its votes from each ward. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done on a ward-by-ward basis using these common percentages.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

The old seat(s) needed are:

• Morley and Rothwell
• Leeds East
• Leeds Central
• Leeds West
• Leeds North West

Old seat: Morley and Rothwell

					Actual Results				Turnout-adjusted Results					Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2005	Old Seat	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
City Of Leeds	Ardsley and Robin Hood	15,530	Morley and Rothwell	Morley and Outwood	3,866	5,340	2,413	3,699	2,291	3,164	1,430	2,192	9,077	2,476	4,276	1,234	1,090	9,077
City Of Leeds	City and Hunslet [2]	0	Morley and Rothwell	Leeds Central	1,551	4,840	2,544	866	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
City Of Leeds	Garforth and Swillington [3]	0	Morley and Rothwell	Elmet and Rothwell	7,528	8,080	3,879	1,100	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
City Of Leeds	Kippax and Methley [2]	0	Morley and Rothwell	Elmet and Rothwell	4,244	10,400	2,364	1,622	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
City Of Leeds	Middleton Park [2]	9,418	Morley and Rothwell	Leeds Central	3,124	6,366	2,229	1,123	1,339	2,729	955	481	5,504	1,392	3,048	824	239	5,504
City Of Leeds	Morley North [2]	16,894	Morley and Rothwell	Morley and Outwood	2,713	3,913	1,191	11,873	1,360	1,962	597	5,954	9,873	1,799	4,597	515	2,960	9,873
City Of Leeds	Morley South	15,753	Morley and Rothwell	Morley and Outwood	1,826	5,041	1,180	8,825	996	2,751	644	4,816	9,207	1,354	4,901	555	2,394	9,207
City Of Leeds	Rothwell [2]	15,113	Morley and Rothwell	Elmet and Rothwell	2,230	6,273	8,717	795	1,093	3,076	4,274	390	8,833	1,204	3,745	3,689	193	8,833
	Total		Morley and Rothwell						7,079	13,682	7,900	13,833	42,494	8,226	20,569	6,819	6,879	42,494

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Morley and Rothwell at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

Party	General Election 2005 Votes	Local Election Turnout-adjusted Votes	Votes to transfer away	Votes to transfer into	Ward Transfers needed
CON	8,227	7,079	0	1,148	Transfer in 14.3% (= 1148 / 8036) of ward's transfer pool votes
LAB	20,570	13,682	0	6,888	Transfer in 85.7% (= 6888 / 8036) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB	6,819	7,900	1,081	0	Transfer away 13.7% (= 1081 / 7900) of ward's LIB votes
OTH	6,879	13,833	6,954	0	Transfer away 50.3% (= 6954 / 13833) of ward's OTH votes
Total	42,495	42,494	8,036	8,036

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

Old seat: Leeds East

					Actual Results				Turnout-adjusted Results					Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2005	Old Seat	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
City Of Leeds	Burmantofts and Richmond Hill [2]	6,430	Leeds East	Leeds Central	718	3,690	7,011	1,788	191	981	1,864	475	3,511	182	1,867	1,338	122	3,511
City Of Leeds	Chapel Allerton [2]	362	Leeds East	Leeds North East	2,046	6,834	4,387	3,513	24	81	52	41	198	22	127	37	10	198
City Of Leeds	Cross Gates and Whinmoor [2]	6,648	Leeds East	Leeds East	6,440	8,408	1,037	1,343	1,357	1,772	219	283	3,631	1,297	2,103	157	73	3,631
City Of Leeds	Garforth and Swillington [2]	42	Leeds East	Elmet and Rothwell	7,528	8,080	3,879	1,100	8	9	4	1	22	7	11	2	0	22
City Of Leeds	Gipton and Harehills [2]	13,752	Leeds East	Leeds East	875	8,438	9,049	559	347	3,350	3,592	222	7,511	331	4,542	2,579	57	7,511
City Of Leeds	Killingbeck and Seacroft	16,181	Leeds East	Leeds East	2,284	8,650	3,137	1,079	1,332	5,046	1,830	629	8,837	1,273	6,086	1,313	162	8,837
City Of Leeds	Temple Newsam [2]	11,649	Leeds East	Leeds East	7,663	7,271	3,308	846	2,554	2,424	1,103	282	6,363	2,441	3,056	791	72	6,363
	Total		Leeds East						5,813	13,663	8,664	1,933	30,073	5,557	17,795	6,220	500	30,073

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Leeds East at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

Party	General Election 2005 Votes	Local Election Turnout-adjusted Votes	Votes to transfer away	Votes to transfer into	Ward Transfers needed
CON	5,557	5,813	256	0	Transfer away 4.4% (= 256 / 5813) of ward's CON votes
LAB	17,799	13,663	0	4,136	Transfer in 100.0% (= 4136 / 4136) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB	6,221	8,664	2,443	0	Transfer away 28.2% (= 2443 / 8664) of ward's LIB votes
OTH	500	1,933	1,433	0	Transfer away 74.1% (= 1433 / 1933) of ward's OTH votes
Total	30,077	30,073	4,136	4,136

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

Old seat: Leeds Central

					Actual Results				Turnout-adjusted Results					Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2005	Old Seat	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
City Of Leeds	Armley [1]	1,378	Leeds Central	Leeds West	2,676	7,295	2,086	3,560	109	297	85	145	636	84	407	54	89	636
City Of Leeds	Beeston and Holbeck	15,633	Leeds Central	Leeds Central	3,131	6,388	2,678	2,793	1,508	3,077	1,290	1,345	7,220	1,171	4,390	829	828	7,220
City Of Leeds	Burmantofts and Richmond Hill [1]	8,402	Leeds Central	Leeds Central	718	3,690	7,011	1,788	211	1,084	2,060	525	3,880	163	2,068	1,323	323	3,880
City Of Leeds	Chapel Allerton [1]	659	Leeds Central	Leeds North East	2,046	6,834	4,387	3,513	37	124	80	64	305	28	185	51	39	305
City Of Leeds	City and Hunslet [1]	13,684	Leeds Central	Leeds Central	1,551	4,840	2,544	866	1,000	3,121	1,640	558	6,319	777	4,144	1,053	343	6,319
City Of Leeds	Farnley and Wortley [1]	742	Leeds Central	Leeds West	2,209	4,261	966	11,257	40	78	18	206	342	31	172	11	126	342
City Of Leeds	Gipton and Harehills [1]	1,302	Leeds Central	Leeds East	875	8,438	9,049	559	28	268	288	18	602	21	384	185	11	602
City Of Leeds	Hyde Park and Woodhouse [1]	10,251	Leeds Central	Leeds Central	1,111	3,436	5,450	520	500	1,547	2,453	234	4,734	388	2,624	1,576	144	4,734
City Of Leeds	Middleton Park [1]	7,198	Leeds Central	Leeds Central	3,124	6,366	2,229	1,123	809	1,648	577	291	3,325	628	2,146	370	179	3,325
City Of Leeds	Morley North [1]	0	Leeds Central	Morley and Outwood	2,713	3,913	1,191	11,873	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
City Of Leeds	Rothwell [1]	0	Leeds Central	Elmet and Rothwell	2,230	6,273	8,717	795	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
City Of Leeds	Temple Newsam [1]	3,948	Leeds Central	Leeds East	7,663	7,271	3,308	846	732	695	316	81	1,824	568	1,002	203	49	1,824
	Total		Leeds Central						4,974	11,939	8,807	3,467	29,187	3,864	17,527	5,660	2,135	29,187

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Leeds Central at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

Party	General Election 2005 Votes	Local Election Turnout-adjusted Votes	Votes to transfer away	Votes to transfer into	Ward Transfers needed
CON	3,865	4,974	1,109	0	Transfer away 22.3% (= 1109 / 4974) of ward's CON votes
LAB	17,526	11,939	0	5,587	Transfer in 100.0% (= 5587 / 5587) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB	5,660	8,807	3,147	0	Transfer away 35.7% (= 3147 / 8807) of ward's LIB votes
OTH	2,135	3,467	1,332	0	Transfer away 38.4% (= 1332 / 3467) of ward's OTH votes
Total	29,186	29,187	5,587	5,587

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

Old seat: Leeds West

					Actual Results				Turnout-adjusted Results					Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2005	Old Seat	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
City Of Leeds	Armley [2]	15,439	Leeds West	Leeds West	2,676	7,295	2,086	3,560	1,410	3,845	1,100	1,876	8,231	1,403	4,986	946	893	8,231
City Of Leeds	Bramley and Stanningley [1]	15,347	Leeds West	Leeds West	2,534	6,898	4,831	1,433	1,321	3,596	2,518	747	8,182	1,315	4,344	2,166	355	8,182
City Of Leeds	Calverley and Farsley [1]	0	Leeds West	Pudsey	12,355	4,388	3,761	993	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
City Of Leeds	Farnley and Wortley [2]	16,491	Leeds West	Leeds West	2,209	4,261	966	11,257	1,039	2,004	454	5,295	8,792	1,034	4,844	390	2,522	8,792
City Of Leeds	Hyde Park and Woodhouse [3]	1,314	Leeds West	Leeds Central	1,111	3,436	5,450	520	74	229	363	35	701	73	298	312	16	701
City Of Leeds	Kirkstall [2]	14,546	Leeds West	Leeds West	2,031	6,917	5,067	2,315	965	3,285	2,406	1,099	7,755	960	4,200	2,070	523	7,755
City Of Leeds	Pudsey [1]	104	Leeds West	Pudsey	6,753	9,409	3,070	911	19	26	8	3	56	18	28	6	1	56
	Total		Leeds West						4,828	12,985	6,849	9,055	33,717	4,806	18,702	5,894	4,313	33,717

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Leeds West at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

Party	General Election 2005 Votes	Local Election Turnout-adjusted Votes	Votes to transfer away	Votes to transfer into	Ward Transfers needed
CON	4,807	4,828	21	0	Transfer away 0.4% (= 21 / 4828) of ward's CON votes
LAB	18,704	12,985	0	5,719	Transfer in 100.0% (= 5719 / 5719) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB	5,894	6,849	955	0	Transfer away 13.9% (= 955 / 6849) of ward's LIB votes
OTH	4,313	9,055	4,742	0	Transfer away 52.4% (= 4742 / 9055) of ward's OTH votes
Total	33,718	33,717	5,719	5,719

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

Old seat: Leeds North West

					Actual Results				Turnout-adjusted Results					Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2005	Old Seat	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
City Of Leeds	Adel and Wharfedale	16,015	Leeds North West	Leeds North West	14,103	3,746	5,844	568	5,791	1,538	2,400	233	9,962	4,790	2,800	2,254	117	9,962
City Of Leeds	Alwoodley [2]	0	Leeds North West	Leeds North East	12,238	4,314	8,289	701	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
City Of Leeds	Chapel Allerton [4]	885	Leeds North West	Leeds North East	2,046	6,834	4,387	3,513	67	224	144	115	550	55	301	135	58	550
City Of Leeds	Guiseley and Rawdon [1]	1,726	Leeds North West	Pudsey	10,571	5,506	3,978	1,641	523	272	197	81	1,073	432	414	185	40	1,073
City Of Leeds	Headingley	15,953	Leeds North West	Leeds North West	1,187	1,982	5,395	1,182	1,209	2,018	5,493	1,204	9,924	1,000	3,157	5,159	607	9,924
City Of Leeds	Horsforth [1]	205	Leeds North West	Pudsey	7,040	3,130	10,761	1,878	39	17	60	10	126	32	32	56	5	126
City Of Leeds	Hyde Park and Woodhouse [2]	3,374	Leeds North West	Leeds Central	1,111	3,436	5,450	520	222	686	1,088	104	2,100	183	842	1,021	52	2,100
City Of Leeds	Kirkstall [1]	1,528	Leeds North West	Leeds West	2,031	6,917	5,067	2,315	118	403	295	135	951	97	508	277	68	951
City Of Leeds	Moortown [2]	3,274	Leeds North West	Leeds North East	5,907	4,830	10,524	542	552	451	983	51	2,037	456	631	923	25	2,037
City Of Leeds	Otley and Yeadon [1]	12,304	Leeds North West	Leeds North West	7,137	4,052	9,675	3,799	2,215	1,257	3,002	1,179	7,653	1,832	2,406	2,819	595	7,653
City Of Leeds	Weetwood	16,614	Leeds North West	Leeds North West	6,007	4,854	7,605	1,060	3,179	2,569	4,025	561	10,334	2,629	3,640	3,780	283	10,334
	Total		Leeds North West						13,915	9,435	17,687	3,673	44,710	11,510	14,734	16,612	1,854	44,710

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Leeds North West at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

Party	General Election 2005 Votes	Local Election Turnout-adjusted Votes	Votes to transfer away	Votes to transfer into	Ward Transfers needed
CON	11,510	13,915	2,405	0	Transfer away 17.3% (= 2405 / 13915) of ward's CON votes
LAB	14,735	9,435	0	5,300	Transfer in 100.0% (= 5300 / 5300) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB	16,612	17,687	1,075	0	Transfer away 6.1% (= 1075 / 17687) of ward's LIB votes
OTH	1,854	3,673	1,819	0	Transfer away 49.5% (= 1819 / 3673) of ward's OTH votes
Total	44,711	44,710	5,300	5,300

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

New seat: Leeds Central

District	Ward	Electorate 2005	Old Seat	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
City Of Leeds	Beeston and Holbeck	15,633	Leeds Central	Leeds Central	1,171	4,390	829	828	7,220
City Of Leeds	Burmantofts and Richmond Hill [1]	8,402	Leeds Central	Leeds Central	163	2,068	1,323	323	3,880
City Of Leeds	Burmantofts and Richmond Hill [2]	6,430	Leeds East	Leeds Central	182	1,867	1,338	122	3,511
City Of Leeds	City and Hunslet [1]	13,684	Leeds Central	Leeds Central	777	4,144	1,053	343	6,319
City Of Leeds	City and Hunslet [2]	0	Morley and Rothwell	Leeds Central	0	0	0	0	0
City Of Leeds	Hyde Park and Woodhouse [1]	10,251	Leeds Central	Leeds Central	388	2,624	1,576	144	4,734
City Of Leeds	Hyde Park and Woodhouse [2]	3,374	Leeds North West	Leeds Central	183	842	1,021	52	2,100
City Of Leeds	Hyde Park and Woodhouse [3]	1,314	Leeds West	Leeds Central	73	298	312	16	701
City Of Leeds	Middleton Park [1]	7,198	Leeds Central	Leeds Central	628	2,146	370	179	3,325
City Of Leeds	Middleton Park [2]	9,418	Morley and Rothwell	Leeds Central	1,392	3,048	824	239	5,504
	Total			Leeds Central	4,962	21,431	8,651	2,249	37,294

And these are the implied results for 2005 for the new seat of Leeds Central.