Leeds East: New Boundaries Calculation

Due to changes in ward boundaries, some new wards are divided among several old constituencies (though never between two new constituencies). Such wards are shown divided into several parts, called [1], [2], and so on.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election from 2003, 2004 or 2006. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed. Where zero votes are shown, the ward is not needed because the entire old seat is unsplit.

Calculation method: There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% of its votes from each ward. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done on a ward-by-ward basis using these common percentages.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

The old seat(s) needed are:

• Elmet
• Leeds East
• Leeds Central

Old seat: Elmet

					Actual Results				Turnout-adjusted Results					Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2005	Old Seat	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
City Of Leeds	Cross Gates and Whinmoor [1]	10,094	Elmet	Leeds East	6,440	8,408	1,037	1,343	2,578	3,366	415	538	6,897	2,132	4,077	381	306	6,897
City Of Leeds	Garforth and Swillington [1]	15,735	Elmet	Elmet and Rothwell	7,528	8,080	3,879	1,100	3,931	4,220	2,026	574	10,751	3,251	5,311	1,861	326	10,751
City Of Leeds	Harewood [1]	12,525	Elmet	Elmet and Rothwell	14,718	3,483	3,137	332	5,813	1,376	1,239	131	8,559	4,808	2,537	1,138	74	8,559
City Of Leeds	Kippax and Methley [1]	15,486	Elmet	Elmet and Rothwell	4,244	10,400	2,364	1,622	2,410	5,907	1,343	921	10,581	1,993	6,829	1,233	523	10,581
City Of Leeds	Wetherby	15,159	Elmet	Elmet and Rothwell	13,763	4,574	2,926	0	6,704	2,228	1,425	0	10,357	5,545	3,502	1,308	0	10,357
	Total		Elmet						21,436	17,097	6,448	2,164	47,145	17,732	22,259	5,923	1,231	47,145

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Elmet at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

Party	General Election 2005 Votes	Local Election Turnout-adjusted Votes	Votes to transfer away	Votes to transfer into	Ward Transfers needed
CON	17,732	21,436	3,704	0	Transfer away 17.3% (= 3704 / 21436) of ward's CON votes
LAB	22,260	17,097	0	5,163	Transfer in 100.0% (= 5163 / 5163) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB	5,923	6,448	525	0	Transfer away 8.1% (= 525 / 6448) of ward's LIB votes
OTH	1,231	2,164	933	0	Transfer away 43.1% (= 933 / 2164) of ward's OTH votes
Total	47,146	47,145	5,163	5,163

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

Old seat: Leeds East

					Actual Results				Turnout-adjusted Results					Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2005	Old Seat	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
City Of Leeds	Burmantofts and Richmond Hill [2]	6,430	Leeds East	Leeds Central	718	3,690	7,011	1,788	191	981	1,864	475	3,511	182	1,867	1,338	122	3,511
City Of Leeds	Chapel Allerton [2]	362	Leeds East	Leeds North East	2,046	6,834	4,387	3,513	24	81	52	41	198	22	127	37	10	198
City Of Leeds	Cross Gates and Whinmoor [2]	6,648	Leeds East	Leeds East	6,440	8,408	1,037	1,343	1,357	1,772	219	283	3,631	1,297	2,103	157	73	3,631
City Of Leeds	Garforth and Swillington [2]	42	Leeds East	Elmet and Rothwell	7,528	8,080	3,879	1,100	8	9	4	1	22	7	11	2	0	22
City Of Leeds	Gipton and Harehills [2]	13,752	Leeds East	Leeds East	875	8,438	9,049	559	347	3,350	3,592	222	7,511	331	4,542	2,579	57	7,511
City Of Leeds	Killingbeck and Seacroft	16,181	Leeds East	Leeds East	2,284	8,650	3,137	1,079	1,332	5,046	1,830	629	8,837	1,273	6,086	1,313	162	8,837
City Of Leeds	Temple Newsam [2]	11,649	Leeds East	Leeds East	7,663	7,271	3,308	846	2,554	2,424	1,103	282	6,363	2,441	3,056	791	72	6,363
	Total		Leeds East						5,813	13,663	8,664	1,933	30,073	5,557	17,795	6,220	500	30,073

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Leeds East at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

Party	General Election 2005 Votes	Local Election Turnout-adjusted Votes	Votes to transfer away	Votes to transfer into	Ward Transfers needed
CON	5,557	5,813	256	0	Transfer away 4.4% (= 256 / 5813) of ward's CON votes
LAB	17,799	13,663	0	4,136	Transfer in 100.0% (= 4136 / 4136) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB	6,221	8,664	2,443	0	Transfer away 28.2% (= 2443 / 8664) of ward's LIB votes
OTH	500	1,933	1,433	0	Transfer away 74.1% (= 1433 / 1933) of ward's OTH votes
Total	30,077	30,073	4,136	4,136

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

Old seat: Leeds Central

					Actual Results				Turnout-adjusted Results					Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2005	Old Seat	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
City Of Leeds	Armley [1]	1,378	Leeds Central	Leeds West	2,676	7,295	2,086	3,560	109	297	85	145	636	84	407	54	89	636
City Of Leeds	Beeston and Holbeck	15,633	Leeds Central	Leeds Central	3,131	6,388	2,678	2,793	1,508	3,077	1,290	1,345	7,220	1,171	4,390	829	828	7,220
City Of Leeds	Burmantofts and Richmond Hill [1]	8,402	Leeds Central	Leeds Central	718	3,690	7,011	1,788	211	1,084	2,060	525	3,880	163	2,068	1,323	323	3,880
City Of Leeds	Chapel Allerton [1]	659	Leeds Central	Leeds North East	2,046	6,834	4,387	3,513	37	124	80	64	305	28	185	51	39	305
City Of Leeds	City and Hunslet [1]	13,684	Leeds Central	Leeds Central	1,551	4,840	2,544	866	1,000	3,121	1,640	558	6,319	777	4,144	1,053	343	6,319
City Of Leeds	Farnley and Wortley [1]	742	Leeds Central	Leeds West	2,209	4,261	966	11,257	40	78	18	206	342	31	172	11	126	342
City Of Leeds	Gipton and Harehills [1]	1,302	Leeds Central	Leeds East	875	8,438	9,049	559	28	268	288	18	602	21	384	185	11	602
City Of Leeds	Hyde Park and Woodhouse [1]	10,251	Leeds Central	Leeds Central	1,111	3,436	5,450	520	500	1,547	2,453	234	4,734	388	2,624	1,576	144	4,734
City Of Leeds	Middleton Park [1]	7,198	Leeds Central	Leeds Central	3,124	6,366	2,229	1,123	809	1,648	577	291	3,325	628	2,146	370	179	3,325
City Of Leeds	Morley North [1]	0	Leeds Central	Morley and Outwood	2,713	3,913	1,191	11,873	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
City Of Leeds	Rothwell [1]	0	Leeds Central	Elmet and Rothwell	2,230	6,273	8,717	795	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
City Of Leeds	Temple Newsam [1]	3,948	Leeds Central	Leeds East	7,663	7,271	3,308	846	732	695	316	81	1,824	568	1,002	203	49	1,824
	Total		Leeds Central						4,974	11,939	8,807	3,467	29,187	3,864	17,527	5,660	2,135	29,187

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Leeds Central at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

Party	General Election 2005 Votes	Local Election Turnout-adjusted Votes	Votes to transfer away	Votes to transfer into	Ward Transfers needed
CON	3,865	4,974	1,109	0	Transfer away 22.3% (= 1109 / 4974) of ward's CON votes
LAB	17,526	11,939	0	5,587	Transfer in 100.0% (= 5587 / 5587) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB	5,660	8,807	3,147	0	Transfer away 35.7% (= 3147 / 8807) of ward's LIB votes
OTH	2,135	3,467	1,332	0	Transfer away 38.4% (= 1332 / 3467) of ward's OTH votes
Total	29,186	29,187	5,587	5,587

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

New seat: Leeds East

District	Ward	Electorate 2005	Old Seat	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
City Of Leeds	Cross Gates and Whinmoor [1]	10,094	Elmet	Leeds East	2,132	4,077	381	306	6,897
City Of Leeds	Cross Gates and Whinmoor [2]	6,648	Leeds East	Leeds East	1,297	2,103	157	73	3,631
City Of Leeds	Gipton and Harehills [1]	1,302	Leeds Central	Leeds East	21	384	185	11	602
City Of Leeds	Gipton and Harehills [2]	13,752	Leeds East	Leeds East	331	4,542	2,579	57	7,511
City Of Leeds	Killingbeck and Seacroft	16,181	Leeds East	Leeds East	1,273	6,086	1,313	162	8,837
City Of Leeds	Temple Newsam [1]	3,948	Leeds Central	Leeds East	568	1,002	203	49	1,824
City Of Leeds	Temple Newsam [2]	11,649	Leeds East	Leeds East	2,441	3,056	791	72	6,363
	Total			Leeds East	8,066	21,253	5,611	733	35,665

And these are the implied results for 2005 for the new seat of Leeds East.