New Boundaries 2013 Calculation

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2010 had the new boundaries for Malvern and Ledbury been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2010. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Due to changes in ward boundaries, some new wards are divided among several old constituencies (and sometimes in Scotland between two new constituencies). Such wards are shown divided into several parts, called [1], [2], and so on.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2010 from the period 2007-2011. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed. Where zero votes are shown, the ward results have not yet been acquired, and the implied result is still provisional and will be improved later.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% of its votes from each ward. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done on a ward-by-ward basis using these common percentages.

List of old seats forming part of Malvern and Ledbury

Old seat: Worcestershire West

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the old seat of Worcestershire West. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. Details of the transfer calculation are given below this table.

Old seat: Worcestershire West				Actual Results				Turnout-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Election Year	Electorate 2010	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Malvern Hills	Alfrick and Leigh	2011	2,927	1,928	0	0	544	1,692	0	0	477	2,169
Malvern Hills	Baldwin	2011	1,691	-1	0	0	0	1,253	0	0	0	1,253
Malvern Hills	Broadheath	2011	2,825	1,317	0	0	1,015	1,182	0	0	911	2,093
Malvern Hills	Chase	2011	4,876	2,887	0	2,623	345	1,782	0	1,619	213	3,614
Malvern Hills	Dyson Perrins	2011	2,906	951	0	1,039	0	1,029	0	1,124	0	2,153
Malvern Hills	Hallow	2011	1,534	335	0	513	0	449	0	688	0	1,137
Malvern Hills	Kempsey	2011	3,245	0	0	0	-2	0	0	0	2,405	2,405
Malvern Hills	Lindridge	2011	1,823	-1	0	0	0	1,351	0	0	0	1,351
Malvern Hills	Link	2011	4,958	2,280	0	1,535	1,431	1,597	0	1,075	1,002	3,674
Malvern Hills	Longdon	2011	1,711	503	0	335	0	761	0	507	0	1,268
Malvern Hills	Martley	2011	1,419	-1	0	0	0	1,051	0	0	0	1,051
Malvern Hills	Morton	2011	1,680	429	0	517	0	565	0	680	0	1,245
Malvern Hills	Pickersleigh	2011	4,481	1,133	0	1,441	977	1,059	0	1,347	914	3,320
Malvern Hills	Powick	2011	3,124	889	0	2,104	303	624	0	1,478	213	2,315
Malvern Hills	Priory	2011	2,965	1,620	0	0	887	1,420	0	0	777	2,197
Malvern Hills	Ripple	2011	1,500	0	0	0	-1	0	0	0	1,111	1,111
Malvern Hills	Teme Valley	2011	1,559	-1	0	0	0	1,155	0	0	0	1,155
Malvern Hills	Tenbury	2011	3,022	1,696	0	0	416	1,798	0	0	441	2,239
Malvern Hills	Upton and Hanley	2011	3,422	1,667	0	0	833	1,691	0	0	845	2,536
Malvern Hills	Wells	2011	2,652	1,616	0	0	877	1,274	0	0	691	1,965
Malvern Hills	West	2011	3,240	1,233	0	0	1,679	1,017	0	0	1,384	2,401
Malvern Hills	Woodbury	2011	1,660	-1	0	0	0	1,230	0	0	0	1,230
Wychavon	Bredon	2011	2,028	-1	0	0	0	1,503	0	0	0	1,503
Wychavon	Eckington	2011	2,234	848	186	0	302	1,051	230	0	374	1,655
Wychavon	Elmley Castle and Somerville	2011	1,955	435	0	197	0	997	0	452	0	1,449
Wychavon	Pershore	2011	5,667	2,987	0	2,794	1,570	1,706	0	1,596	897	4,199
Wychavon	South Bredon Hill	2011	1,897	0	0	-1	0	0	0	1,406	0	1,406
	Total		73,001					29,237	230	11,972	12,655	54,094

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Worcestershire West at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

Party	General Election 2010 Votes	Local Election Turnout-adjusted Votes	Votes to transfer away	Votes to transfer into	Ward Transfers needed
CON	27,213	29,237	2,024	0	Transfer away 6.9% (= 2024 / 29237) of ward's CON votes
LAB	3,661	230	0	3,431	Transfer in 28.8% (= 3431 / 11918) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB	20,459	11,972	0	8,487	Transfer in 71.2% (= 8487 / 11918) of ward's transfer pool votes
OTH	2,760	12,655	9,895	0	Transfer away 78.2% (= 9895 / 12655) of ward's OTH votes
Total	54,093	54,094	11,918	11,918

Main table for Worcestershire West

The main table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Worcestershire West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

Old seat: Herefordshire North

Old seat: Worcestershire West	Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2010	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Malvern Hills	Alfrick and Leigh	2,927	Malvern and Ledbury	1,575	141	349	104	2,169
Malvern Hills	Baldwin	1,691	Malvern and Ledbury	1,166	25	62	0	1,253
Malvern Hills	Broadheath	2,825	Malvern and Ledbury	1,100	229	566	199	2,093
Malvern Hills	Chase	4,876	Malvern and Ledbury	1,659	83	1,825	46	3,614
Malvern Hills	Dyson Perrins	2,906	Malvern and Ledbury	958	21	1,175	0	2,153
Malvern Hills	Hallow	1,534	Malvern and Ledbury	418	9	710	0	1,137
Malvern Hills	Kempsey	3,245	Evesham	0	541	1,339	525	2,405
Malvern Hills	Lindridge	1,823	Malvern and Ledbury	1,257	27	67	0	1,351
Malvern Hills	Link	4,958	Malvern and Ledbury	1,486	257	1,712	219	3,674
Malvern Hills	Longdon	1,711	Malvern and Ledbury	708	15	545	0	1,268
Malvern Hills	Martley	1,419	Malvern and Ledbury	978	21	52	0	1,051
Malvern Hills	Morton	1,680	Malvern and Ledbury	526	11	708	0	1,245
Malvern Hills	Pickersleigh	4,481	Malvern and Ledbury	986	227	1,908	199	3,320
Malvern Hills	Powick	3,124	Malvern and Ledbury	581	60	1,627	46	2,315
Malvern Hills	Priory	2,965	Malvern and Ledbury	1,322	203	503	169	2,197
Malvern Hills	Ripple	1,500	Evesham	0	250	619	242	1,111
Malvern Hills	Teme Valley	1,559	Malvern and Ledbury	1,075	23	57	0	1,155
Malvern Hills	Tenbury	3,022	Malvern and Ledbury	1,674	135	334	96	2,239
Malvern Hills	Upton and Hanley	3,422	Evesham	1,574	224	554	184	2,536
Malvern Hills	Wells	2,652	Malvern and Ledbury	1,186	181	448	151	1,965
Malvern Hills	West	3,240	Malvern and Ledbury	947	332	821	302	2,401
Malvern Hills	Woodbury	1,660	Malvern and Ledbury	1,145	25	61	0	1,230
Wychavon	Bredon	2,028	Evesham	1,399	30	74	0	1,503
Wychavon	Eckington	2,234	Evesham	978	335	260	82	1,655
Wychavon	Elmley Castle and Somerville	1,955	Evesham	928	20	501	0	1,449
Wychavon	Pershore	5,667	Evesham	1,588	236	2,180	196	4,199
Wychavon	South Bredon Hill	1,897	Evesham	0	0	1,406	0	1,406
	Total	73,001		27,214	3,661	20,463	2,760	54,094

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the old seat of Herefordshire North. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. Details of the transfer calculation are given below this table.

Old seat: Herefordshire North				Actual Results				Turnout-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Election Year	Electorate 2010	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Herefordshire	Backbury	2011	2,474	523	0	0	847	673	0	0	1,091	1,764
Herefordshire	Bircher	2011	2,340	222	0	0	1,146	271	0	0	1,398	1,669
Herefordshire	Bringsty	2011	2,290	442	0	0	883	545	0	0	1,088	1,633
Herefordshire	Bromyard	2011	4,547	1,001	246	521	1,193	1,096	269	570	1,306	3,241
Herefordshire	Burghill, Holmer and Lyde	2011	2,618	0	0	0	-1	0	0	0	1,867	1,867
Herefordshire	Castle	2011	2,528	865	0	0	512	1,132	0	0	670	1,802
Herefordshire	Credenhill	2011	2,581	283	0	0	795	483	0	0	1,357	1,840
Herefordshire	Frome	2011	2,751	1,161	0	0	270	1,591	0	0	370	1,961
Herefordshire	Golden Cross with Weobley	2011	2,342	719	118	312	175	907	149	394	221	1,671
Herefordshire	Hagley	2011	2,909	614	0	0	664	997	0	0	1,078	2,075
Herefordshire	Hampton Court	2011	2,157	783	0	0	340	1,072	0	0	466	1,538
Herefordshire	Hope End	2011	4,492	1,786	0	872	1,630	1,334	0	651	1,218	3,203
Herefordshire	Kington Town	2011	2,451	0	0	900	305	0	0	1,305	442	1,747
Herefordshire	Ledbury	2011	7,342	3,565	481	1,419	3,109	2,177	294	866	1,898	5,235
Herefordshire	Leominster North	2011	4,156	1,153	308	119	1,379	1,155	308	119	1,381	2,963
Herefordshire	Leominster South	2011	4,433	1,214	407	0	1,401	1,270	426	0	1,465	3,161
Herefordshire	Mortimer	2011	2,578	743	97	158	518	901	118	192	628	1,839
Herefordshire	Old Gore	2011	2,518	807	0	0	651	994	0	0	802	1,796
Herefordshire	Pembridge and Lyonshall with Titley	2011	2,387	921	0	0	273	1,313	0	0	389	1,702
Herefordshire	Sutton Walls	2011	2,440	626	0	0	549	927	0	0	813	1,740
Herefordshire	Upton	2011	2,330	989	0	0	252	1,324	0	0	337	1,661
Herefordshire	Wormsley Ridge	2011	2,047	603	0	0	505	794	0	0	665	1,459
	Total		66,711					20,956	1,564	4,097	20,950	47,567

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Herefordshire North at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

Party	General Election 2010 Votes	Local Election Turnout-adjusted Votes	Votes to transfer away	Votes to transfer into	Ward Transfers needed
CON	24,631	20,956	0	3,675	Transfer in 22.8% (= 3675 / 16131) of ward's transfer pool votes
LAB	3,373	1,564	0	1,809	Transfer in 11.2% (= 1809 / 16131) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB	14,744	4,097	0	10,647	Transfer in 66.0% (= 10647 / 16131) of ward's transfer pool votes
OTH	4,820	20,950	16,130	0	Transfer away 77.0% (= 16130 / 20950) of ward's OTH votes
Total	47,568	47,567	16,131	16,131

Main table for Herefordshire North

The main table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Herefordshire North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.