Rayleigh and Wickford: New Boundaries Calculation

Due to changes in ward boundaries, some new wards are divided among several old constituencies (though never between two new constituencies). Such wards are shown divided into several parts, called [1], [2], and so on.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election from 2003, 2004 or 2006. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed. Where zero votes are shown, the ward is not needed because the entire old seat is unsplit.

Calculation method: There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% of its votes from each ward. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done on a ward-by-ward basis using these common percentages.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

The old seat(s) needed are:

• Billericay
• Rochford and Southend East
• Rayleigh

Old seat: Billericay

					Actual Results				Turnout-adjusted Results					Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2005	Old Seat	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Basildon	Billericay East	8,934	Billericay	Basildon and Billericay	2,150	333	780	0	3,618	560	1,313	0	5,491	3,428	1,092	969	0	5,491
Basildon	Billericay West	9,372	Billericay	Basildon and Billericay	2,345	287	821	0	3,912	479	1,370	0	5,761	3,707	1,041	1,011	0	5,761
Basildon	Burstead	8,286	Billericay	Basildon and Billericay	1,935	365	837	0	3,141	593	1,359	0	5,093	2,976	1,112	1,003	0	5,093
Basildon	Crouch	6,157	Billericay	Basildon and Billericay	1,121	272	261	420	2,045	496	476	766	3,783	1,938	1,021	351	472	3,783
Basildon	Laindon Park [2]	6,000	Billericay	Basildon and Billericay	881	716	273	656	1,286	1,045	399	958	3,688	1,218	1,584	294	590	3,688
Basildon	Pitsea North West	9,107	Billericay	Basildon South and East Thurrock	838	789	458	0	2,250	2,118	1,230	0	5,598	2,132	2,557	908	0	5,598
Basildon	Pitsea South East [2]	7,240	Billericay	Basildon South and East Thurrock	1,199	722	275	526	1,960	1,180	450	860	4,450	1,857	1,730	332	529	4,450
Basildon	Vange [2]	2,371	Billericay	Basildon South and East Thurrock	502	612	224	0	547	667	244	0	1,458	518	759	180	0	1,458
Basildon	Wickford Castledon	6,128	Billericay	Rayleigh and Wickford	1,291	269	186	553	2,115	441	305	906	3,767	2,004	979	225	558	3,767
Basildon	Wickford North	9,242	Billericay	Rayleigh and Wickford	1,822	468	492	430	3,222	828	870	760	5,680	3,053	1,515	642	468	5,680
Basildon	Wickford Park	6,657	Billericay	Rayleigh and Wickford	1,281	250	342	0	2,798	546	747	0	4,091	2,651	887	551	0	4,091
	Total		Billericay						26,894	8,953	8,763	4,250	48,860	25,487	14,283	6,471	2,619	48,860

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Billericay at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

Party	General Election 2005 Votes	Local Election Turnout-adjusted Votes	Votes to transfer away	Votes to transfer into	Ward Transfers needed
CON	25,487	26,894	1,407	0	Transfer away 5.2% (= 1407 / 26894) of ward's CON votes
LAB	14,281	8,953	0	5,328	Transfer in 100.0% (= 5328 / 5328) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB	6,471	8,763	2,292	0	Transfer away 26.2% (= 2292 / 8763) of ward's LIB votes
OTH	2,619	4,250	1,631	0	Transfer away 38.4% (= 1631 / 4250) of ward's OTH votes
Total	48,858	48,860	5,328	5,328

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

Old seat: Rochford and Southend East

					Actual Results				Turnout-adjusted Results					Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2005	Old Seat	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Rochford	Barling and Sutton	1,427	Rochford and Southend East	Rochford and Southend East	216	116	0	0	514	276	0	0	790	428	311	17	33	790
Rochford	Foulness and Great Wakering	4,449	Rochford and Southend East	Rochford and Southend East	903	626	0	0	1,456	1,009	0	0	2,465	1,213	1,109	48	93	2,465
Rochford	Hawkwell South [2]	625	Rochford and Southend East	Rayleigh and Wickford	701	200	0	0	269	77	0	0	346	224	95	9	17	346
Rochford	Rochford	5,301	Rochford and Southend East	Rochford and Southend East	957	625	0	0	1,777	1,160	0	0	2,937	1,480	1,282	59	114	2,937
Southend-on-sea	Kursaal	6,982	Rochford and Southend East	Rochford and Southend East	623	627	203	367	1,324	1,333	432	780	3,869	1,103	1,423	476	865	3,869
Southend-on-sea	Milton	6,808	Rochford and Southend East	Rochford and Southend East	1,068	576	441	0	1,932	1,042	798	0	3,772	1,609	1,174	862	124	3,772
Southend-on-sea	Prittlewell [1]	1,289	Rochford and Southend East	Southend West	1,303	338	926	279	327	85	232	70	714	272	107	242	91	714
Southend-on-sea	Shoeburyness	7,610	Rochford and Southend East	Rochford and Southend East	1,274	561	283	0	2,536	1,117	563	0	4,216	2,113	1,291	648	163	4,216
Southend-on-sea	Southchurch	7,241	Rochford and Southend East	Rochford and Southend East	1,672	369	281	260	2,598	573	437	404	4,012	2,164	751	524	571	4,012
Southend-on-sea	St Luke's	7,885	Rochford and Southend East	Rochford and Southend East	858	677	404	311	1,666	1,315	785	604	4,370	1,388	1,429	841	711	4,370
Southend-on-sea	Thorpe	7,186	Rochford and Southend East	Rochford and Southend East	2,073	318	430	0	2,926	449	607	0	3,982	2,437	650	705	188	3,982
Southend-on-sea	Victoria	7,016	Rochford and Southend East	Rochford and Southend East	643	794	425	0	1,343	1,658	887	0	3,888	1,118	1,750	932	86	3,888
Southend-on-sea	West Shoebury	7,404	Rochford and Southend East	Rochford and Southend East	1,661	486	301	0	2,784	815	504	0	4,103	2,319	1,006	597	179	4,103
	Total		Rochford and Southend East						21,452	10,909	5,245	1,858	39,464	17,874	12,383	5,966	3,240	39,464

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Rochford and Southend East at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

Party	General Election 2005 Votes	Local Election Turnout-adjusted Votes	Votes to transfer away	Votes to transfer into	Ward Transfers needed
CON	17,874	21,452	3,578	0	Transfer away 16.7% (= 3578 / 21452) of ward's CON votes
LAB	12,384	10,909	0	1,475	Transfer in 41.2% (= 1475 / 3580) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB	5,967	5,245	0	722	Transfer in 20.2% (= 722 / 3580) of ward's transfer pool votes
OTH	3,241	1,858	0	1,383	Transfer in 38.6% (= 1383 / 3580) of ward's transfer pool votes
Total	39,466	39,464	3,580	3,580

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

Old seat: Rayleigh

					Actual Results				Turnout-adjusted Results					Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2005	Old Seat	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Chelmsford	Bicknacre and East and West Hanningfield [2]	1,751	Rayleigh	Maldon	1,401	250	331	0	796	142	188	0	1,126	671	271	183	0	1,126
Chelmsford	Rettendon and Runwell	3,978	Rayleigh	Maldon	1,718	0	196	0	2,296	0	262	0	2,558	1,937	365	255	0	2,558
Chelmsford	South Hanningfield, Stock and Margaretting [1]	1,894	Rayleigh	Maldon	2,028	140	371	0	973	67	178	0	1,218	821	223	173	0	1,218
Chelmsford	South Woodham - Chetwood and Collingwood	6,574	Rayleigh	Maldon	2,529	139	849	0	3,040	167	1,021	0	4,228	2,565	667	994	0	4,228
Chelmsford	South Woodham - Elmwood and Woodville	6,219	Rayleigh	Maldon	2,734	500	1,249	0	2,439	446	1,114	0	3,999	2,058	855	1,085	0	3,999
Rochford	Ashingdon and Canewdon	3,499	Rayleigh	Rayleigh and Wickford	714	166	0	384	1,271	296	0	684	2,251	1,072	807	0	371	2,251
Rochford	Downhall and Rawreth	3,232	Rayleigh	Rayleigh and Wickford	328	0	900	0	555	0	1,523	0	2,078	468	126	1,483	0	2,078
Rochford	Grange	2,795	Rayleigh	Rayleigh and Wickford	347	0	683	0	606	0	1,192	0	1,798	511	125	1,161	0	1,798
Rochford	Hawkwell North	3,447	Rayleigh	Rayleigh and Wickford	596	121	0	438	1,144	232	0	841	2,217	965	795	0	456	2,217
Rochford	Hawkwell South [1]	2,660	Rayleigh	Rayleigh and Wickford	701	200	0	0	1,331	380	0	0	1,711	1,123	587	0	0	1,711
Rochford	Hawkwell West	3,166	Rayleigh	Rayleigh and Wickford	422	264	0	554	693	433	0	910	2,036	584	957	0	493	2,036
Rochford	Hockley Central	5,076	Rayleigh	Rayleigh and Wickford	2,310	719	0	415	2,190	682	0	393	3,265	1,848	1,203	0	213	3,265
Rochford	Hockley North	1,651	Rayleigh	Rayleigh and Wickford	473	143	0	0	815	246	0	0	1,061	687	373	0	0	1,061
Rochford	Hockley West	1,624	Rayleigh	Rayleigh and Wickford	-1	0	0	0	1,044	0	0	0	1,044	881	162	0	0	1,044
Rochford	Hullbridge	5,380	Rayleigh	Rayleigh and Wickford	1,040	520	0	385	1,850	925	0	685	3,460	1,561	1,526	0	371	3,460
Rochford	Lodge	3,170	Rayleigh	Rayleigh and Wickford	704	0	0	381	1,323	0	0	716	2,039	1,116	533	0	388	2,039
Rochford	Rayleigh Central	3,323	Rayleigh	Rayleigh and Wickford	-1	0	0	0	2,137	0	0	0	2,137	1,803	333	0	0	2,137
Rochford	Sweyne Park	3,285	Rayleigh	Rayleigh and Wickford	-1	0	0	0	2,113	0	0	0	2,113	1,783	329	0	0	2,113
Rochford	Trinity	2,841	Rayleigh	Rayleigh and Wickford	722	0	494	0	1,085	0	742	0	1,827	915	188	722	0	1,827
Rochford	Wheatley	3,207	Rayleigh	Rayleigh and Wickford	815	0	375	0	1,413	0	650	0	2,063	1,192	237	633	0	2,063
Rochford	Whitehouse	3,054	Rayleigh	Rayleigh and Wickford	732	0	436	0	1,231	0	733	0	1,964	1,038	211	714	0	1,964
	Total		Rayleigh						30,345	4,016	7,603	4,229	46,193	25,608	10,882	7,406	2,295	46,193

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Rayleigh at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

Party	General Election 2005 Votes	Local Election Turnout-adjusted Votes	Votes to transfer away	Votes to transfer into	Ward Transfers needed
CON	25,609	30,345	4,736	0	Transfer away 15.6% (= 4736 / 30345) of ward's CON votes
LAB	10,883	4,016	0	6,867	Transfer in 100.0% (= 6867 / 6867) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB	7,406	7,603	197	0	Transfer away 2.6% (= 197 / 7603) of ward's LIB votes
OTH	2,295	4,229	1,934	0	Transfer away 45.7% (= 1934 / 4229) of ward's OTH votes
Total	46,193	46,193	6,867	6,867

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

New seat: Rayleigh and Wickford

District	Ward	Electorate 2005	Old Seat	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Rochford	Ashingdon and Canewdon	3,499	Rayleigh	Rayleigh and Wickford	1,072	807	0	371	2,251
Rochford	Downhall and Rawreth	3,232	Rayleigh	Rayleigh and Wickford	468	126	1,483	0	2,078
Rochford	Grange	2,795	Rayleigh	Rayleigh and Wickford	511	125	1,161	0	1,798
Rochford	Hawkwell North	3,447	Rayleigh	Rayleigh and Wickford	965	795	0	456	2,217
Rochford	Hawkwell South [1]	2,660	Rayleigh	Rayleigh and Wickford	1,123	587	0	0	1,711
Rochford	Hawkwell South [2]	625	Rochford and Southend East	Rayleigh and Wickford	224	95	9	17	346
Rochford	Hawkwell West	3,166	Rayleigh	Rayleigh and Wickford	584	957	0	493	2,036
Rochford	Hockley Central	5,076	Rayleigh	Rayleigh and Wickford	1,848	1,203	0	213	3,265
Rochford	Hockley North	1,651	Rayleigh	Rayleigh and Wickford	687	373	0	0	1,061
Rochford	Hockley West	1,624	Rayleigh	Rayleigh and Wickford	881	162	0	0	1,044
Rochford	Hullbridge	5,380	Rayleigh	Rayleigh and Wickford	1,561	1,526	0	371	3,460
Rochford	Lodge	3,170	Rayleigh	Rayleigh and Wickford	1,116	533	0	388	2,039
Rochford	Rayleigh Central	3,323	Rayleigh	Rayleigh and Wickford	1,803	333	0	0	2,137
Rochford	Sweyne Park	3,285	Rayleigh	Rayleigh and Wickford	1,783	329	0	0	2,113
Rochford	Trinity	2,841	Rayleigh	Rayleigh and Wickford	915	188	722	0	1,827
Rochford	Wheatley	3,207	Rayleigh	Rayleigh and Wickford	1,192	237	633	0	2,063
Rochford	Whitehouse	3,054	Rayleigh	Rayleigh and Wickford	1,038	211	714	0	1,964
Basildon	Wickford Castledon	6,128	Billericay	Rayleigh and Wickford	2,004	979	225	558	3,767
Basildon	Wickford North	9,242	Billericay	Rayleigh and Wickford	3,053	1,515	642	468	5,680
Basildon	Wickford Park	6,657	Billericay	Rayleigh and Wickford	2,651	887	551	0	4,091
	Total			Rayleigh and Wickford	25,488	11,977	6,142	3,338	46,948

And these are the implied results for 2005 for the new seat of Rayleigh and Wickford.