Reading East: New Boundaries Calculation

Due to changes in ward boundaries, some new wards are divided among several old constituencies (though never between two new constituencies). Such wards are shown divided into several parts, called [1], [2], and so on.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election from 2003, 2004 or 2006. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed. Where zero votes are shown, the ward is not needed because the entire old seat is unsplit.

Calculation method: There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% of its votes from each ward. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done on a ward-by-ward basis using these common percentages.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

The old seat(s) needed are:

• Maidenhead
• Reading East

Old seat: Maidenhead

					Actual Results				Turnout-adjusted Results					Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2005	Old Seat	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Windsor And Maidenhead	Belmont	5,248	Maidenhead	Maidenhead	2,102	147	4,294	0	1,199	84	2,450	0	3,733	1,753	250	1,663	65	3,733
Windsor And Maidenhead	Bisham and Cookham	5,106	Maidenhead	Maidenhead	2,868	249	3,286	0	1,627	141	1,864	0	3,632	2,049	267	1,265	49	3,632
Windsor And Maidenhead	Boyn Hill	4,836	Maidenhead	Maidenhead	1,890	162	3,747	113	1,100	94	2,180	66	3,440	1,593	242	1,479	124	3,440
Windsor And Maidenhead	Cox Green	5,461	Maidenhead	Maidenhead	1,512	343	3,947	0	1,012	230	2,643	0	3,885	1,610	409	1,794	70	3,885
Windsor And Maidenhead	Furze Platt	5,248	Maidenhead	Maidenhead	1,769	117	4,247	0	1,077	71	2,585	0	3,733	1,662	247	1,754	68	3,733
Windsor And Maidenhead	Hurley and Walthams	4,475	Maidenhead	Maidenhead	1,782	828	3,438	0	938	436	1,810	0	3,184	1,347	559	1,228	48	3,184
Windsor And Maidenhead	Maidenhead Riverside	4,929	Maidenhead	Maidenhead	2,384	117	4,009	86	1,267	62	2,131	46	3,506	1,749	207	1,446	102	3,506
Windsor And Maidenhead	Oldfield	5,042	Maidenhead	Maidenhead	2,167	703	1,870	0	1,640	532	1,415	0	3,587	1,960	628	960	37	3,587
Windsor And Maidenhead	Pinkneys Green	5,108	Maidenhead	Maidenhead	1,782	127	4,181	0	1,063	76	2,495	0	3,634	1,627	245	1,693	66	3,634
Wokingham	Charvil	2,093	Maidenhead	Maidenhead	583	34	480	47	759	44	625	61	1,489	900	86	424	77	1,489
Wokingham	Coronation	4,331	Maidenhead	Maidenhead	1,738	228	1,600	274	1,394	183	1,284	220	3,081	1,684	270	871	254	3,081
Wokingham	Hurst	2,029	Maidenhead	Maidenhead	647	65	192	0	1,033	104	307	0	1,444	1,102	124	208	8	1,444
Wokingham	Loddon [1]	222	Maidenhead	Reading East	1,864	616	2,170	481	57	19	67	15	158	72	23	45	16	158
Wokingham	Remenham, Wargrave and Ruscombe	3,950	Maidenhead	Maidenhead	2,398	96	1,381	0	1,739	70	1,001	0	2,810	1,965	138	679	26	2,810
Wokingham	Sonning	2,195	Maidenhead	Maidenhead	603	68	315	75	887	100	464	110	1,561	992	131	314	122	1,561
Wokingham	Twyford	4,183	Maidenhead	Maidenhead	1,046	235	2,341	158	823	185	1,843	124	2,975	1,240	310	1,251	173	2,975
	Total		Maidenhead						17,615	2,431	25,164	642	45,852	23,313	4,144	17,081	1,313	45,852

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Maidenhead at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

Party	General Election 2005 Votes	Local Election Turnout-adjusted Votes	Votes to transfer away	Votes to transfer into	Ward Transfers needed
CON	23,312	17,615	0	5,697	Transfer in 70.5% (= 5697 / 8081) of ward's transfer pool votes
LAB	4,144	2,431	0	1,713	Transfer in 21.2% (= 1713 / 8081) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB	17,081	25,164	8,083	0	Transfer away 32.1% (= 8083 / 25164) of ward's LIB votes
OTH	1,313	642	0	671	Transfer in 8.3% (= 671 / 8081) of ward's transfer pool votes
Total	45,850	45,852	8,081	8,081

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

Old seat: Reading East

					Actual Results				Turnout-adjusted Results					Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2005	Old Seat	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Reading	Abbey	6,781	Reading East	Reading East	1,162	2,405	1,140	333	916	1,895	898	262	3,971	1,023	2,016	693	237	3,971
Reading	Battle [1]	1,246	Reading East	Reading West	1,311	2,866	1,425	0	171	373	186	0	730	190	395	143	0	730
Reading	Caversham	6,756	Reading East	Reading East	2,689	2,924	1,515	431	1,407	1,531	793	226	3,957	1,501	1,638	612	204	3,957
Reading	Church	6,997	Reading East	Reading East	1,942	2,437	825	403	1,419	1,781	603	295	4,098	1,496	1,868	465	267	4,098
Reading	Katesgrove	6,312	Reading East	Reading East	852	2,032	1,148	851	645	1,538	869	644	3,696	766	1,675	671	583	3,696
Reading	Mapledurham	2,390	Reading East	Reading East	832	150	314	0	899	162	339	0	1,400	935	202	261	0	1,400
Reading	Park	7,105	Reading East	Reading East	1,027	3,263	2,093	1,210	563	1,788	1,147	663	4,161	714	1,959	885	600	4,161
Reading	Peppard	7,194	Reading East	Reading East	3,913	961	4,400	0	1,778	437	1,999	0	4,214	1,991	678	1,543	0	4,214
Reading	Redlands	6,874	Reading East	Reading East	1,286	2,984	1,741	502	795	1,844	1,076	310	4,025	923	1,989	831	280	4,025
Reading	Thames	7,023	Reading East	Reading East	5,387	1,438	3,168	0	2,217	592	1,304	0	4,113	2,356	749	1,007	0	4,113
Reading	Whitley [1]	317	Reading East	Reading West	1,128	2,735	240	477	46	111	10	19	186	47	113	7	17	186
Wokingham	Bulmershe and Whitegates	5,761	Reading East	Reading East	2,115	1,001	3,414	0	1,093	517	1,764	0	3,374	1,281	730	1,362	0	3,374
Wokingham	Loddon [2]	5,855	Reading East	Reading East	1,864	616	2,170	481	1,246	412	1,450	321	3,429	1,414	603	1,119	290	3,429
Wokingham	Maiden Erlegh [1]	29	Reading East	Wokingham	4,067	340	2,710	590	9	1	6	1	17	9	1	4	0	17
Wokingham	South Lake	4,341	Reading East	Reading East	815	313	1,406	205	756	291	1,305	190	2,542	903	458	1,007	172	2,542
	Total		Reading East						13,960	13,273	13,749	2,931	43,913	15,557	15,082	10,619	2,654	43,913

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Reading East at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

Party	General Election 2005 Votes	Local Election Turnout-adjusted Votes	Votes to transfer away	Votes to transfer into	Ward Transfers needed
CON	15,557	13,960	0	1,597	Transfer in 46.9% (= 1597 / 3406) of ward's transfer pool votes
LAB	15,082	13,273	0	1,809	Transfer in 53.1% (= 1809 / 3406) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB	10,619	13,749	3,130	0	Transfer away 22.8% (= 3130 / 13749) of ward's LIB votes
OTH	2,654	2,931	277	0	Transfer away 9.5% (= 277 / 2931) of ward's OTH votes
Total	43,912	43,913	3,406	3,406

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

New seat: Reading East

District	Ward	Electorate 2005	Old Seat	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Reading	Abbey	6,781	Reading East	Reading East	1,023	2,016	693	237	3,971
Wokingham	Bulmershe and Whitegates	5,761	Reading East	Reading East	1,281	730	1,362	0	3,374
Reading	Caversham	6,756	Reading East	Reading East	1,501	1,638	612	204	3,957
Reading	Church	6,997	Reading East	Reading East	1,496	1,868	465	267	4,098
Reading	Katesgrove	6,312	Reading East	Reading East	766	1,675	671	583	3,696
Wokingham	Loddon [1]	222	Maidenhead	Reading East	72	23	45	16	158
Wokingham	Loddon [2]	5,855	Reading East	Reading East	1,414	603	1,119	290	3,429
Reading	Mapledurham	2,390	Reading East	Reading East	935	202	261	0	1,400
Reading	Park	7,105	Reading East	Reading East	714	1,959	885	600	4,161
Reading	Peppard	7,194	Reading East	Reading East	1,991	678	1,543	0	4,214
Reading	Redlands	6,874	Reading East	Reading East	923	1,989	831	280	4,025
Wokingham	South Lake	4,341	Reading East	Reading East	903	458	1,007	172	2,542
Reading	Thames	7,023	Reading East	Reading East	2,356	749	1,007	0	4,113
	Total			Reading East	15,381	14,595	10,508	2,652	43,137

And these are the implied results for 2005 for the new seat of Reading East.