Reading West: New Boundaries Calculation

Due to changes in ward boundaries, some new wards are divided among several old constituencies (though never between two new constituencies). Such wards are shown divided into several parts, called [1], [2], and so on.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election from 2003, 2004 or 2006. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed. Where zero votes are shown, the ward is not needed because the entire old seat is unsplit.

Calculation method: There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% of its votes from each ward. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done on a ward-by-ward basis using these common percentages.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

The old seat(s) needed are:

• Reading West
• Reading East

Old seat: Reading West

					Actual Results				Turnout-adjusted Results					Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2005	Old Seat	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Reading	Battle [2]	5,322	Reading West	Reading West	1,311	2,866	1,425	0	749	1,638	815	0	3,202	642	1,913	550	95	3,202
Reading	Kentwood	7,053	Reading West	Reading West	2,736	2,865	2,269	0	1,475	1,545	1,223	0	4,243	1,265	1,994	826	156	4,243
Reading	Minster	6,991	Reading West	Reading West	2,749	3,253	1,018	0	1,647	1,949	610	0	4,206	1,412	2,269	412	111	4,206
Reading	Norcot	6,980	Reading West	Reading West	1,634	3,663	912	0	1,105	2,478	617	0	4,200	947	2,742	417	92	4,200
Reading	Southcote	6,174	Reading West	Reading West	2,143	3,721	652	0	1,222	2,121	372	0	3,715	1,048	2,339	251	75	3,715
Reading	Tilehurst	7,086	Reading West	Reading West	2,161	1,800	3,298	230	1,230	1,025	1,878	131	4,264	1,055	1,606	1,269	333	4,264
Reading	Whitley [2]	6,601	Reading West	Reading West	1,128	2,735	240	477	978	2,372	208	414	3,972	838	2,525	140	467	3,972
West Berkshire	Birch Copse	6,034	Reading West	Reading West	2,255	443	1,084	0	2,165	425	1,041	0	3,631	1,857	903	703	166	3,631
West Berkshire	Calcot	6,564	Reading West	Reading West	2,683	428	822	0	2,694	430	825	0	3,949	2,310	912	557	167	3,949
West Berkshire	Pangbourne	2,138	Reading West	Reading West	591	79	127	0	954	128	205	0	1,287	818	277	138	52	1,287
West Berkshire	Purley on Thames	4,925	Reading West	Reading West	1,127	108	790	307	1,432	137	1,004	390	2,963	1,228	529	678	526	2,963
West Berkshire	Theale	2,114	Reading West	Reading West	231	169	283	0	430	315	527	0	1,272	368	487	356	59	1,272
West Berkshire	Westwood	2,205	Reading West	Reading West	293	138	289	0	540	254	533	0	1,327	463	439	360	64	1,327
	Total		Reading West						16,621	14,817	9,858	935	42,231	14,258	18,941	6,662	2,368	42,231

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Reading West at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

Party	General Election 2005 Votes	Local Election Turnout-adjusted Votes	Votes to transfer away	Votes to transfer into	Ward Transfers needed
CON	14,258	16,621	2,363	0	Transfer away 14.2% (= 2363 / 16621) of ward's CON votes
LAB	18,940	14,817	0	4,123	Transfer in 74.2% (= 4123 / 5556) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB	6,663	9,858	3,195	0	Transfer away 32.4% (= 3195 / 9858) of ward's LIB votes
OTH	2,368	935	0	1,433	Transfer in 25.8% (= 1433 / 5556) of ward's transfer pool votes
Total	42,229	42,231	5,556	5,556

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

Old seat: Reading East

					Actual Results				Turnout-adjusted Results					Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2005	Old Seat	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Reading	Abbey	6,781	Reading East	Reading East	1,162	2,405	1,140	333	916	1,895	898	262	3,971	1,023	2,016	693	237	3,971
Reading	Battle [1]	1,246	Reading East	Reading West	1,311	2,866	1,425	0	171	373	186	0	730	190	395	143	0	730
Reading	Caversham	6,756	Reading East	Reading East	2,689	2,924	1,515	431	1,407	1,531	793	226	3,957	1,501	1,638	612	204	3,957
Reading	Church	6,997	Reading East	Reading East	1,942	2,437	825	403	1,419	1,781	603	295	4,098	1,496	1,868	465	267	4,098
Reading	Katesgrove	6,312	Reading East	Reading East	852	2,032	1,148	851	645	1,538	869	644	3,696	766	1,675	671	583	3,696
Reading	Mapledurham	2,390	Reading East	Reading East	832	150	314	0	899	162	339	0	1,400	935	202	261	0	1,400
Reading	Park	7,105	Reading East	Reading East	1,027	3,263	2,093	1,210	563	1,788	1,147	663	4,161	714	1,959	885	600	4,161
Reading	Peppard	7,194	Reading East	Reading East	3,913	961	4,400	0	1,778	437	1,999	0	4,214	1,991	678	1,543	0	4,214
Reading	Redlands	6,874	Reading East	Reading East	1,286	2,984	1,741	502	795	1,844	1,076	310	4,025	923	1,989	831	280	4,025
Reading	Thames	7,023	Reading East	Reading East	5,387	1,438	3,168	0	2,217	592	1,304	0	4,113	2,356	749	1,007	0	4,113
Reading	Whitley [1]	317	Reading East	Reading West	1,128	2,735	240	477	46	111	10	19	186	47	113	7	17	186
Wokingham	Bulmershe and Whitegates	5,761	Reading East	Reading East	2,115	1,001	3,414	0	1,093	517	1,764	0	3,374	1,281	730	1,362	0	3,374
Wokingham	Loddon [2]	5,855	Reading East	Reading East	1,864	616	2,170	481	1,246	412	1,450	321	3,429	1,414	603	1,119	290	3,429
Wokingham	Maiden Erlegh [1]	29	Reading East	Wokingham	4,067	340	2,710	590	9	1	6	1	17	9	1	4	0	17
Wokingham	South Lake	4,341	Reading East	Reading East	815	313	1,406	205	756	291	1,305	190	2,542	903	458	1,007	172	2,542
	Total		Reading East						13,960	13,273	13,749	2,931	43,913	15,557	15,082	10,619	2,654	43,913

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Reading East at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

Party	General Election 2005 Votes	Local Election Turnout-adjusted Votes	Votes to transfer away	Votes to transfer into	Ward Transfers needed
CON	15,557	13,960	0	1,597	Transfer in 46.9% (= 1597 / 3406) of ward's transfer pool votes
LAB	15,082	13,273	0	1,809	Transfer in 53.1% (= 1809 / 3406) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB	10,619	13,749	3,130	0	Transfer away 22.8% (= 3130 / 13749) of ward's LIB votes
OTH	2,654	2,931	277	0	Transfer away 9.5% (= 277 / 2931) of ward's OTH votes
Total	43,912	43,913	3,406	3,406

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

New seat: Reading West

District	Ward	Electorate 2005	Old Seat	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Reading	Battle [1]	1,246	Reading East	Reading West	190	395	143	0	730
Reading	Battle [2]	5,322	Reading West	Reading West	642	1,913	550	95	3,202
West Berkshire	Birch Copse	6,034	Reading West	Reading West	1,857	903	703	166	3,631
West Berkshire	Calcot	6,564	Reading West	Reading West	2,310	912	557	167	3,949
Reading	Kentwood	7,053	Reading West	Reading West	1,265	1,994	826	156	4,243
Reading	Minster	6,991	Reading West	Reading West	1,412	2,269	412	111	4,206
Reading	Norcot	6,980	Reading West	Reading West	947	2,742	417	92	4,200
West Berkshire	Pangbourne	2,138	Reading West	Reading West	818	277	138	52	1,287
West Berkshire	Purley on Thames	4,925	Reading West	Reading West	1,228	529	678	526	2,963
Reading	Southcote	6,174	Reading West	Reading West	1,048	2,339	251	75	3,715
West Berkshire	Theale	2,114	Reading West	Reading West	368	487	356	59	1,272
Reading	Tilehurst	7,086	Reading West	Reading West	1,055	1,606	1,269	333	4,264
West Berkshire	Westwood	2,205	Reading West	Reading West	463	439	360	64	1,327
Reading	Whitley [1]	317	Reading East	Reading West	47	113	7	17	186
Reading	Whitley [2]	6,601	Reading West	Reading West	838	2,525	140	467	3,972
	Total			Reading West	14,496	19,450	6,814	2,385	43,146

And these are the implied results for 2005 for the new seat of Reading West.