Redcar: New Boundaries Calculation

Due to changes in ward boundaries, some new wards are divided among several old constituencies (though never between two new constituencies). Such wards are shown divided into several parts, called [1], [2], and so on.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election from 2003, 2004 or 2006. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed. Where zero votes are shown, the ward is not needed because the entire old seat is unsplit.

Calculation method: There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% of its votes from each ward. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done on a ward-by-ward basis using these common percentages.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

The old seat(s) needed are:

• Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East
• Redcar

Old seat: Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East

					Actual Results				Turnout-adjusted Results					Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2005	Old Seat	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Middlesbrough	Beechwood [2]	650	Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East	Middlesbrough	72	781	0	710	18	198	0	180	396	55	283	0	56	396
Middlesbrough	Brookfield [2]	74	Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East	Middlesbrough	1,174	1,354	0	267	19	22	0	4	45	19	23	0	1	45
Middlesbrough	Coulby Newham	6,525	Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East	Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East	337	2,214	303	0	469	3,078	421	0	3,968	514	3,183	269	0	3,968
Middlesbrough	Hemlington	4,413	Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East	Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East	0	734	755	276	0	1,116	1,148	420	2,684	211	1,603	736	132	2,684
Middlesbrough	Kader [2]	104	Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East	Middlesbrough	1,653	903	224	0	38	21	5	0	64	38	22	3	0	64
Middlesbrough	Ladgate	4,363	Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East	Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East	284	1,231	0	0	497	2,156	0	0	2,653	497	2,156	0	0	2,653
Middlesbrough	Marton	3,877	Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East	Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East	0	168	1,873	0	0	194	2,164	0	2,358	234	735	1,387	0	2,358
Middlesbrough	Marton West	4,217	Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East	Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East	1,478	410	538	0	1,562	433	569	0	2,564	1,623	575	364	0	2,564
Middlesbrough	Nunthorpe	3,912	Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East	Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East	1,929	192	998	0	1,471	146	761	0	2,378	1,553	336	488	0	2,378
Middlesbrough	Park End [2]	3,740	Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East	Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East	0	940	0	434	0	1,556	0	718	2,274	148	1,898	0	226	2,274
Middlesbrough	Stainton and Thornton	2,328	Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East	Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East	0	91	635	0	0	177	1,238	0	1,415	134	486	793	0	1,415
Redcar and Cleveland	Brotton	5,300	Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East	Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East	497	2,970	2,872	0	253	1,510	1,460	0	3,223	411	1,875	936	0	3,223
Redcar and Cleveland	Guisborough	5,929	Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East	Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East	4,021	3,730	337	0	1,792	1,663	150	0	3,605	1,808	1,700	96	0	3,605
Redcar and Cleveland	Hutton	6,033	Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East	Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East	5,359	1,218	2,405	0	2,189	497	982	0	3,668	2,295	742	629	0	3,668
Redcar and Cleveland	Lockwood	1,629	Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East	Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East	0	0	0	-1	0	0	0	991	991	205	473	0	312	991
Redcar and Cleveland	Loftus	5,229	Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East	Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East	282	2,082	0	4,667	128	942	0	2,111	3,181	565	1,950	0	665	3,181
Redcar and Cleveland	Saltburn [1]	4,735	Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East	Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East	3,725	1,887	1,277	0	1,557	789	534	0	2,880	1,614	922	342	0	2,880
Redcar and Cleveland	Skelton	5,125	Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East	Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East	3,242	4,570	0	0	1,293	1,823	0	0	3,116	1,293	1,823	0	0	3,116
Redcar and Cleveland	St Germain's [1]	0	Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East	Redcar	915	807	4,942	1,561	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Redcar and Cleveland	Westworth	3,675	Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East	Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East	756	952	0	1,819	479	603	0	1,153	2,235	718	1,153	0	363	2,235
	Total		Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East						11,765	16,924	9,432	5,577	43,698	13,945	21,946	6,049	1,757	43,698

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

Party	General Election 2005 Votes	Local Election Turnout-adjusted Votes	Votes to transfer away	Votes to transfer into	Ward Transfers needed
CON	13,945	11,765	0	2,180	Transfer in 30.3% (= 2180 / 7201) of ward's transfer pool votes
LAB	21,945	16,924	0	5,021	Transfer in 69.7% (= 5021 / 7201) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB	6,049	9,432	3,383	0	Transfer away 35.9% (= 3383 / 9432) of ward's LIB votes
OTH	1,757	5,577	3,820	0	Transfer away 68.5% (= 3820 / 5577) of ward's OTH votes
Total	43,696	43,698	7,201	7,201

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

Old seat: Redcar

					Actual Results				Turnout-adjusted Results					Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2005	Old Seat	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Redcar and Cleveland	Coatham	3,741	Redcar	Redcar	378	961	1,458	492	249	634	962	325	2,170	230	1,037	571	330	2,170
Redcar and Cleveland	Dormanstown	5,290	Redcar	Redcar	414	3,519	2,354	793	179	1,525	1,020	344	3,068	165	1,946	605	349	3,068
Redcar and Cleveland	Eston	5,582	Redcar	Redcar	309	2,851	0	4,530	130	1,200	0	1,907	3,237	120	1,209	0	1,907	3,237
Redcar and Cleveland	Grangetown	3,231	Redcar	Redcar	62	1,784	649	0	47	1,340	487	0	1,874	43	1,538	289	2	1,874
Redcar and Cleveland	Kirkleatham	4,912	Redcar	Redcar	1,448	3,611	1,904	0	592	1,477	779	0	2,848	547	1,833	462	4	2,848
Redcar and Cleveland	Longbeck	5,250	Redcar	Redcar	2,744	574	795	1,189	1,576	330	457	683	3,046	1,457	630	271	687	3,046
Redcar and Cleveland	Newcomen	3,404	Redcar	Redcar	320	418	2,724	0	182	238	1,553	0	1,973	168	873	922	8	1,973
Redcar and Cleveland	Normanby	5,608	Redcar	Redcar	2,368	4,332	934	0	1,009	1,846	398	0	3,253	932	2,080	236	3	3,253
Redcar and Cleveland	Ormesby	4,896	Redcar	Redcar	459	577	5,590	0	197	247	2,396	0	2,840	182	1,221	1,422	13	2,840
Redcar and Cleveland	Saltburn [2]	0	Redcar	Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East	3,725	1,887	1,277	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Redcar and Cleveland	South Bank	5,130	Redcar	Redcar	374	4,237	928	0	201	2,276	498	0	2,975	185	2,490	295	3	2,975
Redcar and Cleveland	St Germain's [2]	5,104	Redcar	Redcar	915	807	4,942	1,561	329	290	1,779	562	2,960	304	1,027	1,056	572	2,960
Redcar and Cleveland	Teesville	5,286	Redcar	Redcar	2,562	4,239	662	476	989	1,637	256	184	3,066	914	1,813	151	186	3,066
Redcar and Cleveland	West Dyke	5,894	Redcar	Redcar	2,067	628	5,003	0	918	279	2,222	0	3,419	848	1,237	1,319	13	3,419
Redcar and Cleveland	Zetland	3,676	Redcar	Redcar	1,685	1,444	762	0	923	791	418	0	2,132	853	1,027	248	3	2,132
	Total		Redcar						7,521	14,110	13,225	4,005	38,861	6,953	19,968	7,852	4,087	38,861

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Redcar at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

Party	General Election 2005 Votes	Local Election Turnout-adjusted Votes	Votes to transfer away	Votes to transfer into	Ward Transfers needed
CON	6,954	7,521	567	0	Transfer away 7.5% (= 567 / 7521) of ward's CON votes
LAB	19,968	14,110	0	5,858	Transfer in 98.6% (= 5858 / 5940) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB	7,852	13,225	5,373	0	Transfer away 40.6% (= 5373 / 13225) of ward's LIB votes
OTH	4,087	4,005	0	82	Transfer in 1.4% (= 82 / 5940) of ward's transfer pool votes
Total	38,861	38,861	5,940	5,940

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

New seat: Redcar

District	Ward	Electorate 2005	Old Seat	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Redcar and Cleveland	Coatham	3,741	Redcar	Redcar	230	1,037	571	330	2,170
Redcar and Cleveland	Dormanstown	5,290	Redcar	Redcar	165	1,946	605	349	3,068
Redcar and Cleveland	Eston	5,582	Redcar	Redcar	120	1,209	0	1,907	3,237
Redcar and Cleveland	Grangetown	3,231	Redcar	Redcar	43	1,538	289	2	1,874
Redcar and Cleveland	Kirkleatham	4,912	Redcar	Redcar	547	1,833	462	4	2,848
Redcar and Cleveland	Longbeck	5,250	Redcar	Redcar	1,457	630	271	687	3,046
Redcar and Cleveland	Newcomen	3,404	Redcar	Redcar	168	873	922	8	1,973
Redcar and Cleveland	Normanby	5,608	Redcar	Redcar	932	2,080	236	3	3,253
Redcar and Cleveland	Ormesby	4,896	Redcar	Redcar	182	1,221	1,422	13	2,840
Redcar and Cleveland	South Bank	5,130	Redcar	Redcar	185	2,490	295	3	2,975
Redcar and Cleveland	St Germain's [1]	0	Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East	Redcar	0	0	0	0	0
Redcar and Cleveland	St Germain's [2]	5,104	Redcar	Redcar	304	1,027	1,056	572	2,960
Redcar and Cleveland	Teesville	5,286	Redcar	Redcar	914	1,813	151	186	3,066
Redcar and Cleveland	West Dyke	5,894	Redcar	Redcar	848	1,237	1,319	13	3,419
Redcar and Cleveland	Zetland	3,676	Redcar	Redcar	853	1,027	248	3	2,132
	Total			Redcar	6,953	19,968	7,852	4,087	38,861

And these are the implied results for 2005 for the new seat of Redcar.