New Boundaries 2013 Calculation

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2010 had the new boundaries for Rugby been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2010. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Due to changes in ward boundaries, some new wards are divided among several old constituencies (and sometimes in Scotland between two new constituencies). Such wards are shown divided into several parts, called [1], [2], and so on.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2010 from the period 2007-2011. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed. Where zero votes are shown, the ward results have not yet been acquired, and the implied result is still provisional and will be improved later.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% of its votes from each ward. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done on a ward-by-ward basis using these common percentages.

List of old seats forming part of Rugby

Old seat: Kenilworth and Southam

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the old seat of Kenilworth and Southam. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. Details of the transfer calculation are given below this table.

Old seat: Kenilworth and Southam				Actual Results				Turnout-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Election Year	Electorate 2010	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Rugby	Dunchurch and Knightlow [1]	2010	4,849	1,798	352	1,557	64	1,756	344	1,520	62	3,682
Rugby	Leam Valley	2011	1,538	812	0	0	157	979	0	0	189	1,168
Rugby	Ryton-on-Dunsmore	2011	1,420	443	0	0	150	806	0	0	273	1,079
Stratford On Avon	Burton Dassett	2008	1,816	647	0	174	0	1,087	0	292	0	1,379
Stratford On Avon	Fenny Compton	2011	1,886	695	0	336	0	966	0	467	0	1,433
Stratford On Avon	Harbury	2010	3,675	1,340	0	1,461	0	1,335	0	1,456	0	2,791
Stratford On Avon	Kineton	2011	3,255	1,109	0	278	261	1,663	0	417	391	2,471
Stratford On Avon	Long Itchington	2010	1,873	901	0	494	0	919	0	504	0	1,423
Stratford On Avon	Snitterfield [1]	2010	4	940	0	403	0	2	0	1	0	3
Stratford On Avon	Southam	2010	4,955	1,631	900	977	0	1,750	965	1,048	0	3,763
Stratford On Avon	Stockton and Napton	2011	1,893	316	0	673	0	459	0	978	0	1,437
Stratford On Avon	Wellesbourne [1]	2010	5,422	1,737	0	0	2,410	1,725	0	0	2,393	4,118
Warwick	Abbey	2011	5,811	4,407	490	3,560	972	2,063	229	1,666	455	4,413
Warwick	Cubbington	2011	4,443	2,755	698	0	743	2,215	561	0	597	3,373
Warwick	Lapworth	2011	2,337	980	0	0	215	1,455	0	0	319	1,774
Warwick	Leek Wootton	2011	1,975	917	0	115	121	1,193	0	150	157	1,500
Warwick	Park Hill	2011	6,388	5,289	1,271	1,799	1,073	2,720	654	925	552	4,851
Warwick	Radford Semele	2011	1,876	572	223	0	237	790	308	0	327	1,425
Warwick	St John's	2011	5,827	4,522	1,852	1,756	770	2,248	921	873	383	4,425
Warwick	Stoneleigh	2011	2,529	414	0	0	682	725	0	0	1,195	1,920
	Total		63,772					26,856	3,982	10,297	7,293	48,428

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Kenilworth and Southam at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

Party	General Election 2010 Votes	Local Election Turnout-adjusted Votes	Votes to transfer away	Votes to transfer into	Ward Transfers needed
CON	25,945	26,856	911	0	Transfer away 3.4% (= 911 / 26856) of ward's CON votes
LAB	6,949	3,982	0	2,967	Transfer in 48.9% (= 2967 / 6063) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB	13,393	10,297	0	3,096	Transfer in 51.1% (= 3096 / 6063) of ward's transfer pool votes
OTH	2,144	7,293	5,149	0	Transfer away 70.6% (= 5149 / 7293) of ward's OTH votes
Total	48,431	48,428	6,063	6,063

Main table for Kenilworth and Southam

The main table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Kenilworth and Southam, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

Old seat: Rugby

Old seat: Kenilworth and Southam	Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2010	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Rugby	Dunchurch and Knightlow [1]	4,849	Rugby	1,696	395	1,573	18	3,682
Rugby	Leam Valley	1,538	Rugby	946	82	85	56	1,168
Rugby	Ryton-on-Dunsmore	1,420	Rugby	779	108	112	80	1,079
Stratford On Avon	Burton Dassett	1,816	Stratford-upon-Avon	1,050	18	311	0	1,379
Stratford On Avon	Fenny Compton	1,886	Rugby	933	16	484	0	1,433
Stratford On Avon	Harbury	3,675	Stratford-upon-Avon	1,290	22	1,479	0	2,791
Stratford On Avon	Kineton	3,255	Stratford-upon-Avon	1,607	163	587	115	2,471
Stratford On Avon	Long Itchington	1,873	Warwick and Leamington	888	15	520	0	1,423
Stratford On Avon	Snitterfield [1]	4	Warwick and Leamington	2	0	1	0	3
Stratford On Avon	Southam	4,955	Rugby	1,691	994	1,078	0	3,763
Stratford On Avon	Stockton and Napton	1,893	Rugby	443	8	986	0	1,437
Stratford On Avon	Wellesbourne [1]	5,422	Stratford-upon-Avon	1,666	855	893	703	4,118
Warwick	Abbey	5,811	Kenilworth and Dorridge	1,993	420	1,866	134	4,413
Warwick	Cubbington	4,443	Kenilworth and Dorridge	2,140	804	254	176	3,373
Warwick	Lapworth	2,337	Kenilworth and Dorridge	1,406	134	140	94	1,774
Warwick	Leek Wootton	1,975	Kenilworth and Dorridge	1,153	74	227	46	1,500
Warwick	Park Hill	6,388	Kenilworth and Dorridge	2,628	890	1,171	162	4,851
Warwick	Radford Semele	1,876	Warwick and Leamington	763	434	132	96	1,425
Warwick	St John's	5,827	Kenilworth and Dorridge	2,172	1,091	1,050	113	4,425
Warwick	Stoneleigh	2,529	Kenilworth and Dorridge	700	425	443	351	1,920
	Total	63,772		25,946	6,948	13,392	2,144	48,428

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the old seat of Rugby. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. Details of the transfer calculation are given below this table.

Old seat: Rugby				Actual Results				Turnout-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Election Year	Electorate 2010	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Nuneaton and Bedworth	Bulkington	2010	5,135	1,952	1,446	0	329	1,826	1,352	0	308	3,486
Rugby	Admirals	2010	5,226	1,745	1,095	795	117	1,650	1,035	752	111	3,548
Rugby	Avon and Swift	2010	2,194	1,049	490	0	0	1,015	474	0	0	1,489
Rugby	Benn	2010	4,296	727	983	797	225	776	1,049	851	240	2,916
Rugby	Bilton	2010	4,104	1,577	760	745	91	1,385	667	654	80	2,786
Rugby	Brownsover North	2010	4,584	1,423	810	848	0	1,437	818	856	0	3,111
Rugby	Brownsover South	2010	3,003	602	648	329	91	735	791	402	111	2,039
Rugby	Caldecott	2010	4,090	898	604	1,267	111	866	582	1,221	107	2,776
Rugby	Dunchurch and Knightlow [2]	2010	65	1,798	352	1,557	64	21	4	18	1	44
Rugby	Earl Craven and Wolston	2010	4,709	1,907	1,184	0	327	1,783	1,107	0	306	3,196
Rugby	Eastlands	2010	4,557	861	706	1,818	0	787	645	1,661	0	3,093
Rugby	Fosse	2010	3,012	1,242	452	548	0	1,133	412	500	0	2,045
Rugby	Hillmorton	2010	4,192	1,516	734	769	0	1,429	692	725	0	2,846
Rugby	Lawford and King's Newnham	2010	2,731	966	413	0	540	933	399	0	522	1,854
Rugby	New Bilton	2010	4,987	942	1,308	697	200	1,013	1,407	750	215	3,385
Rugby	Newbold	2010	4,440	849	1,194	577	136	928	1,306	631	149	3,014
Rugby	Overslade	2010	4,241	1,258	875	541	152	1,281	891	551	155	2,878
Rugby	Paddox	2011	2,834	348	244	612	83	520	365	915	124	1,924
Rugby	Wolvey	2008	1,532	695	64	0	0	952	88	0	0	1,040
	Total		69,932					20,470	14,084	10,487	2,429	47,470

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Rugby at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

Party	General Election 2010 Votes	Local Election Turnout-adjusted Votes	Votes to transfer away	Votes to transfer into	Ward Transfers needed
CON	20,901	20,470	0	431	Transfer in 34.5% (= 431 / 1248) of ward's transfer pool votes
LAB	14,901	14,084	0	817	Transfer in 65.5% (= 817 / 1248) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB	9,434	10,487	1,053	0	Transfer away 10.0% (= 1053 / 10487) of ward's LIB votes
OTH	2,232	2,429	197	0	Transfer away 8.1% (= 197 / 2429) of ward's OTH votes
Total	47,468	47,470	1,248	1,248

Main table for Rugby

The main table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Rugby, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.