Sherwood: New Boundaries 2013 Calculation

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2010 had the new boundaries for Sherwood been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2010. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Due to changes in ward boundaries, some new wards are divided among several old constituencies (and sometimes in Scotland between two new constituencies). Such wards are shown divided into several parts, called [1], [2], and so on.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2010 from the period 2007-2011. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed. Where zero votes are shown, the ward results have not yet been acquired, and the implied result is still provisional and will be improved later.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% of its votes from each ward. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done on a ward-by-ward basis using these common percentages.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Sherwood

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Gedling

Workings for Gedling

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the old seat of Gedling. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. Details of the transfer calculation are given below this table.

Old seat: GedlingActual ResultsTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
Electorate
2010
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
OTH
Votes
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
GedlingBonington20115,0862,2863,00444101,3791,81226603,457
GedlingBurton Joyce and Stoke Bardolph20112,9391,5416508982789143865331651,998
GedlingCarlton20115,3212,2914,01751401,2152,13027303,618
GedlingCarlton Hill20115,3361,9024,04443901,0812,29824903,628
GedlingDaybrook20113,7527341,81017606881,69716502,550
GedlingGedling20115,2802,0602,4702,2233911,0351,2411,1171963,589
GedlingKillisick20111,80205520166094202831,225
GedlingKingswell20113,8331,4011,2942395131,0599781813882,606
GedlingMapperley Plains20115,7323,7632,91461002,0121,55832603,896
GedlingNetherfield and Colwick20115,3941,3813,2094381599762,2693101123,667
GedlingPhoenix20113,63901,4261,316001,2871,18702,474
GedlingPorchester20115,4283,0553,99061501,4721,92229603,690
GedlingSt James20113,3359131,109993068783474702,268
GedlingSt Marys20115,1212,4663,35702281,4191,93101313,481
GedlingValley20113,2644291,00793299386906838892,219
GedlingWoodthorpe20115,6243,9883,42592801,8281,57042503,823
 Total 70,886    16,15123,7616,9131,36448,189

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Gedling at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

PartyGeneral
Election 2010
Votes
Local Election
Turnout-adjusted
Votes
Votes to
transfer
away
Votes to
transfer
into
Ward Transfers needed
CON17,96216,15101,811Transfer in 46.0% (= 1811 / 3941) of ward's transfer pool votes
LAB19,82123,7613,9400Transfer away 16.6% (= 3940 / 23761) of ward's LAB votes
LIB7,3506,9130437Transfer in 11.1% (= 437 / 3941) of ward's transfer pool votes
OTH3,0571,36401,693Transfer in 43.0% (= 1693 / 3941) of ward's transfer pool votes
Total48,19048,1893,9413,941 

Main table for Gedling

The main table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Gedling, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: GedlingTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2010
New Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
GedlingBonington5,086Nottingham North and Hucknall1,5171,5122991293,457
GedlingBurton Joyce and Stoke Bardolph2,939Sherwood9433225401921,998
GedlingCarlton5,321Nottingham East1,3771,7773121523,618
GedlingCarlton Hill5,336Nottingham East1,2561,9172911643,628
GedlingDaybrook3,752Nottingham North and Hucknall8171,4161961212,550
GedlingGedling5,280Nottingham East1,1301,0351,1402843,589
GedlingKillisick1,802Sherwood72786173501,225
GedlingKingswell3,833Sherwood1,1348161994582,606
GedlingMapperley Plains5,732Sherwood2,1311,3003551113,896
GedlingNetherfield and Colwick5,394Nottingham East1,1491,8933522743,667
GedlingPhoenix3,639Nottingham East981,0741,211922,474
GedlingPorchester5,428Nottingham East1,6181,6033311373,690
GedlingSt James3,335Nottingham East751696762592,268
GedlingSt Marys5,121Sherwood1,5661,611362693,481
GedlingValley3,264Nottingham East4557568551542,219
GedlingWoodthorpe5,624Nottingham East1,9481,3104541123,823
 Total70,886 17,96219,8247,3503,05848,189

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

Old seat: Bassetlaw

Workings for Bassetlaw

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the old seat of Bassetlaw. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. Details of the transfer calculation are given below this table.

Old seat: BassetlawActual ResultsTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
Electorate
2010
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
OTH
Votes
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BassetlawBeckingham20081,84851821800823347001,170
BassetlawBlyth20111,844363288149053042021701,167
BassetlawCarlton20104,6251,3421,628001,3231,605002,928
BassetlawClayworth20081,5521,1481070243753700159982
BassetlawEast Retford East20105,3271,8691,532001,8531,519003,372
BassetlawEast Retford North20104,8721,1461,61902821,1601,63902853,084
BassetlawEast Retford South20103,2877301,287007531,328002,081
BassetlawEast Retford West20103,553767782515083685256102,249
BassetlawEverton20101,85873200566663005131,176
BassetlawHarworth20105,8418912,345001,0182,680003,698
BassetlawLangold20101,83624285700256906001,162
BassetlawMisterton20101,94355400773514007171,231
BassetlawRanskill20111,8454413695305974997201,168
BassetlawSturton20111,771000-10001,1211,121
BassetlawSutton20081,678-10001,0620001,062
BassetlawWelbeck20111,58833745700427579001,006
BassetlawWorksop East20104,98702,090089302,21209453,157
BassetlawWorksop North20106,5341,4802,428001,5672,570004,137
BassetlawWorksop North East20105,0581,1842,110001,1512,051003,202
BassetlawWorksop North West20105,5641,0772,146001,1772,346003,523
BassetlawWorksop South20105,3021,8231,600001,7881,569003,357
BassetlawWorksop South East20105,5933192,02438604142,62650103,541
 Total 78,306    18,66525,8181,3513,74049,574

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Bassetlaw at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

PartyGeneral
Election 2010
Votes
Local Election
Turnout-adjusted
Votes
Votes to
transfer
away
Votes to
transfer
into
Ward Transfers needed
CON16,80318,6651,8620Transfer away 10.0% (= 1862 / 18665) of ward's CON votes
LAB25,01825,8188000Transfer away 3.1% (= 800 / 25818) of ward's LAB votes
LIB5,5701,35104,219Transfer in 100.0% (= 4219 / 4219) of ward's transfer pool votes
OTH2,1863,7401,5540Transfer away 41.6% (= 1554 / 3740) of ward's OTH votes
Total49,57749,5744,2194,219 

Main table for Bassetlaw

The main table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Bassetlaw, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: BassetlawTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2010
New Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BassetlawBeckingham1,848Sherwood7413369301,170
BassetlawBlyth1,844Bassetlaw47740728301,167
BassetlawCarlton4,625Bassetlaw1,1911,55518202,928
BassetlawClayworth1,552Bassetlaw6786814393982
BassetlawEast Retford East5,327Bassetlaw1,6681,47223203,372
BassetlawEast Retford North4,872Bassetlaw1,0441,5882851673,084
BassetlawEast Retford South3,287Bassetlaw6781,28711602,081
BassetlawEast Retford West3,553Bassetlaw75382667102,249
BassetlawEverton1,858Bassetlaw59702793001,176
BassetlawHarworth5,841Bassetlaw9162,59718503,698
BassetlawLangold1,836Bassetlaw2308785401,162
BassetlawMisterton1,943Bassetlaw46303494191,231
BassetlawRanskill1,845Bassetlaw53748414701,168
BassetlawSturton1,771Sherwood004666551,121
BassetlawSutton1,678Bassetlaw956010601,062
BassetlawWelbeck1,588Bassetlaw3845616101,006
BassetlawWorksop East4,987Bassetlaw02,1434615523,157
BassetlawWorksop North6,534Bassetlaw1,4112,49023604,137
BassetlawWorksop North East5,058Bassetlaw1,0361,98717803,202
BassetlawWorksop North West5,564Bassetlaw1,0602,27319003,523
BassetlawWorksop South5,302Bassetlaw1,6101,52022703,357
BassetlawWorksop South East5,593Bassetlaw3732,54562403,541
 Total78,306 16,80325,0175,5682,18649,574

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

Old seat: Sherwood

Workings for Sherwood

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the old seat of Sherwood. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. Details of the transfer calculation are given below this table.

Old seat: SherwoodActual ResultsTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
Electorate
2010
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
OTH
Votes
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
AshfieldHucknall Central20115,5841,4572,44232601,3072,19129203,790
AshfieldHucknall East20115,7681,3061,8102367121,2581,7442276863,915
AshfieldHucknall North20115,2401,3252,0871916771,1011,7351595633,558
AshfieldHucknall West20117,4582,7263,6441,2433511,7332,3177902235,063
GedlingBestwood Village20111,54327538200438609001,047
GedlingCalverton20115,5189703,111008902,856003,746
GedlingLambley20111,76459922200874324001,198
GedlingNewstead20111,72843334000657516001,173
GedlingRavenshead20114,7084,8881,896002,303893003,196
GedlingWoodborough20111,55365818700821233001,054
Newark and SherwoodBlidworth20113,33301,214059501,51807442,262
Newark and SherwoodBoughton20113,6874761,27504005541,48404652,503
Newark and SherwoodClipstone20113,36201,234053901,58906942,283
Newark and SherwoodEdwinstowe20114,1525732,03301,0584411,56408142,819
Newark and SherwoodFarnsfield and Blisthorpe20116,3915,0693,557002,5501,789004,339
Newark and SherwoodOllerton20115,1671,0262,95907797552,17905743,508
Newark and SherwoodRainworth20115,1555362,70501,3264112,07301,0163,500
 Total 72,111    16,09325,6141,4685,77948,954

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Sherwood at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

PartyGeneral
Election 2010
Votes
Local Election
Turnout-adjusted
Votes
Votes to
transfer
away
Votes to
transfer
into
Ward Transfers needed
CON19,21116,09303,118Transfer in 34.9% (= 3118 / 8933) of ward's transfer pool votes
LAB18,99725,6146,6170Transfer away 25.8% (= 6617 / 25614) of ward's LAB votes
LIB7,2831,46805,815Transfer in 65.1% (= 5815 / 8933) of ward's transfer pool votes
OTH3,4635,7792,3160Transfer away 40.1% (= 2316 / 5779) of ward's OTH votes
Total48,95448,9548,9338,933 

Main table for Sherwood

The main table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Sherwood, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: SherwoodTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2010
New Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
AshfieldHucknall Central5,584Nottingham North and Hucknall1,5051,62566003,790
AshfieldHucknall East5,768Nottingham North and Hucknall1,5111,2936994113,915
AshfieldHucknall North5,240Nottingham North and Hucknall1,3361,2875983373,558
AshfieldHucknall West7,458Nottingham North and Hucknall1,9731,7181,2381345,063
GedlingBestwood Village1,543Nottingham North and Hucknall49345210201,047
GedlingCalverton5,518Sherwood1,1482,11848003,746
GedlingLambley1,764Sherwood9032405401,198
GedlingNewstead1,728Nottingham North and Hucknall7043838701,173
GedlingRavenshead4,708Nottingham North and Hucknall2,38466215003,196
GedlingWoodborough1,553Sherwood8421733901,054
Newark and SherwoodBlidworth3,333Sherwood2411,1264494462,262
Newark and SherwoodBoughton3,687Sherwood7531,1013712792,503
Newark and SherwoodClipstone3,362Sherwood2401,1794484162,283
Newark and SherwoodEdwinstowe4,152Sherwood6961,1604754882,819
Newark and SherwoodFarnsfield and Blisthorpe6,391Sherwood2,7111,32730104,339
Newark and SherwoodOllerton5,167Sherwood1,0321,6165163443,508
Newark and SherwoodRainworth5,155Sherwood7401,5376146093,500
 Total72,111 19,21218,9977,2813,46448,954

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

Old seat: Newark

Workings for Newark

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the old seat of Newark. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. Details of the transfer calculation are given below this table.

Old seat: NewarkActual ResultsTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
Electorate
2010
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
OTH
Votes
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BassetlawEast Markham20111,86474524300994324001,318
BassetlawRampton20111,61557324100804338001,142
BassetlawTuxford and Trent20103,4091,264937001,3851,027002,412
Newark and SherwoodBalderton North20113,9281,3484503375761,3824613455902,778
Newark and SherwoodBalderton West20113,7411,455581001,891755002,646
Newark and SherwoodBeacon20114,9092,3001,2205101,0081,5868413526953,474
Newark and SherwoodBridge20113,11359025101,09267228601,2442,202
Newark and SherwoodCastle20113,1721,156008621,286009592,245
Newark and SherwoodCaunton20111,846713196121090424915301,306
Newark and SherwoodCollingham and Meering20113,6942,187057902,066054702,613
Newark and SherwoodDevon20113,357787937052083399205502,375
Newark and SherwoodFarndon20114,3361,79204978661,74204838423,067
Newark and SherwoodLowdham20113,866-20002,7350002,735
Newark and SherwoodMagnus20113,634988783954641,0908641055122,571
Newark and SherwoodMuskham20112,002-10001,4160001,416
Newark and SherwoodSouthwell East20111,891423182577047920665301,338
Newark and SherwoodSouthwell North20111,9173741293503544201453933981,356
Newark and SherwoodSouthwell West20112,150481106678057812781501,520
Newark and SherwoodSutton-on-Trent20111,95037706379646907921191,380
Newark and SherwoodTrent20111,982899029701,054034801,402
Newark and SherwoodWinthorpe20112,05338700677528009241,452
RushcliffeBingham East20113,4881,4258781,266098560787502,467
RushcliffeBingham West20113,5091,055901850093379775202,482
RushcliffeCranmer20111,57958724800785332001,117
RushcliffeOak20111,70473323000918288001,206
RushcliffeThoroton20111,698-10001,2010001,201
 Total 72,407    29,1368,6396,6136,83351,221

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Newark at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

PartyGeneral
Election 2010
Votes
Local Election
Turnout-adjusted
Votes
Votes to
transfer
away
Votes to
transfer
into
Ward Transfers needed
CON27,59029,1361,5460Transfer away 5.3% (= 1546 / 29136) of ward's CON votes
LAB11,4388,63902,799Transfer in 43.5% (= 2799 / 6432) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB10,2466,61303,633Transfer in 56.5% (= 3633 / 6432) of ward's transfer pool votes
OTH1,9546,8334,8790Transfer away 71.4% (= 4879 / 6833) of ward's OTH votes
Total51,22851,2216,4326,432 

Main table for Newark

The main table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Newark, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: NewarkTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2010
New Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BassetlawEast Markham1,864Sherwood9413473001,318
BassetlawRampton1,615Sherwood7613572401,142
BassetlawTuxford and Trent3,409Sherwood1,3121,0594202,412
Newark and SherwoodBalderton North3,928Newark1,3096766241692,778
Newark and SherwoodBalderton West3,741Newark1,7917995702,646
Newark and SherwoodBeacon4,909Newark1,5021,0946801993,474
Newark and SherwoodBridge3,113Newark6366885223562,202
Newark and SherwoodCastle3,172Newark1,2183284252742,245
Newark and SherwoodCaunton1,846Sherwood85627018001,306
Newark and SherwoodCollingham and Meering3,694Newark1,9564860902,613
Newark and SherwoodDevon3,357Newark7891,1822471572,375
Newark and SherwoodFarndon4,336Newark1,6503028752413,067
Newark and SherwoodLowdham3,866Newark2,590638202,735
Newark and SherwoodMagnus3,634Newark1,0321,0483441462,571
Newark and SherwoodMuskham2,002Newark1,341334201,416
Newark and SherwoodSouthwell East1,891Newark45421766701,338
Newark and SherwoodSouthwell North1,917Newark3982785661141,356
Newark and SherwoodSouthwell West2,150Newark54714083201,520
Newark and SherwoodSutton-on-Trent1,950Sherwood44448854341,380
Newark and SherwoodTrent1,982Newark9982438001,402
Newark and SherwoodWinthorpe2,053Newark5002993882641,452
RushcliffeBingham East3,488Newark93363090502,467
RushcliffeBingham West3,509Newark88381978002,482
RushcliffeCranmer1,579Newark7433502401,117
RushcliffeOak1,704Newark8693092801,206
RushcliffeThoroton1,698Newark1,137283601,201
 Total72,407 27,59011,43610,2431,95451,221

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

New seat: Sherwood

The new seat of Sherwood is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Sherwood
DistrictWardElectorate
2010
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
GedlingBurton Joyce and Stoke Bardolph2,939Gedling9433225401921,998
GedlingKillisick1,802Gedling72786173501,225
GedlingKingswell3,833Gedling1,1348161994582,606
GedlingMapperley Plains5,732Gedling2,1311,3003551113,896
GedlingSt Marys5,121Gedling1,5661,611362693,481
BassetlawBeckingham1,848Bassetlaw7413369301,170
BassetlawSturton1,771Bassetlaw004666551,121
GedlingCalverton5,518Sherwood1,1482,11848003,746
GedlingLambley1,764Sherwood9032405401,198
GedlingWoodborough1,553Sherwood8421733901,054
Newark and SherwoodBlidworth3,333Sherwood2411,1264494462,262
Newark and SherwoodBoughton3,687Sherwood7531,1013712792,503
Newark and SherwoodClipstone3,362Sherwood2401,1794484162,283
Newark and SherwoodEdwinstowe4,152Sherwood6961,1604754882,819
Newark and SherwoodFarnsfield and Blisthorpe6,391Sherwood2,7111,32730104,339
Newark and SherwoodOllerton5,167Sherwood1,0321,6165163443,508
Newark and SherwoodRainworth5,155Sherwood7401,5376146093,500
BassetlawEast Markham1,864Newark9413473001,318
BassetlawRampton1,615Newark7613572401,142
BassetlawTuxford and Trent3,409Newark1,3121,0594202,412
Newark and SherwoodCaunton1,846Newark85627018001,306
Newark and SherwoodSutton-on-Trent1,950Newark44448854341,380
 Total73,812 20,20718,8296,5834,65150,270

And these are the implied results for 2010 for the new seat of Sherwood.