Taunton Deane: New Boundaries Calculation

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2005 had the new boundaries for Taunton Deane been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2005. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Due to changes in ward boundaries, some new wards are divided among several old constituencies (though never between two new constituencies). Such wards are shown divided into several parts, called [1], [2], and so on.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election from 2003, 2004 or 2006. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed. Where zero votes are shown, the ward is not needed because the entire old seat is unsplit.

Calculation method: There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% of its votes from each ward. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done on a ward-by-ward basis using these common percentages.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Taunton

The main table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the old seat of Taunton. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results, and the third block has the transfer-adjusted results. Details of the transfer calculation are given below this table.

 Actual ResultsTurnout-adjusted Results Transfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2005		Old SeatNew Seat CON
Votes		LAB
Votes		LIB
Votes		OTH
Votes		CON
Votes		LAB
Votes		LIB
Votes		OTH
Votes		Total
Votes		CON
Votes		LAB
Votes		LIB
Votes		OTH
Votes		Total
Votes
Taunton DeaneBishop's Hull2,873TauntonTaunton Deane1,0172654383459872574253352,004849332742802,004
Taunton DeaneBishop's Lydeard3,574TauntonTaunton Deane1,634045801,947054602,4931,6755276502,493
Taunton DeaneBlackdown1,700TauntonTaunton Deane49302598370003681181,18660236519281,186
Taunton DeaneBradford-on-Tone1,827TauntonTaunton Deane690017401,018025701,2758752737101,275
Taunton DeaneComeytrowe4,250TauntonTaunton Deane2,5342653,12801,2671331,56402,9641,0901671,70602,964
Taunton DeaneMilverton and North Deane2,533TauntonTaunton Deane1,56803583431,22102792671,7671,05071580631,767
Taunton DeaneMonument1,699TauntonTaunton Deane41901620854033001,1847342242601,184
Taunton DeaneNeroche1,788TauntonTaunton Deane5740163589000256911,24777437413211,247
Taunton DeaneNorth Curry1,392TauntonTaunton Deane4200457484410480509713791956011971
Taunton DeaneNorton Fitzwarren1,558TauntonTaunton Deane35703150577050901,0864961557401,086
Taunton DeaneRuishton and Creech3,165TauntonTaunton Deane1,45501,1794891,02808333462,207884781,161822,207
Taunton DeaneStaplegrove3,022TauntonTaunton Deane1,52917848301,47117146502,1071,26521063002,107
Taunton DeaneStoke St.Gregory1,114TauntonTaunton Deane000-10007777770113477185777
Taunton DeaneTaunton Blackbrook and Holway5,069TauntonTaunton Deane1,4012582,06501,3302451,96003,5351,1442802,11003,535
Taunton DeaneTaunton Eastgate3,369TauntonTaunton Deane6211657771178682311,0871642,3507462781,285392,350
Taunton DeaneTaunton Fairwater4,549TauntonTaunton Deane2,4042682,11601,5931781,40203,1731,3702201,58103,173
Taunton DeaneTaunton Halcon4,698TauntonTaunton Deane1,0278941,5351579318111,3921423,2768008561,584333,276
Taunton DeaneTaunton Killams and Mountfield2,534TauntonTaunton Deane1,2919355301,1788550501,7681,01311663701,768
Taunton DeaneTaunton Lyngford4,209TauntonTaunton Deane9891,5061,2391377501,1429401042,9366451,1771,088242,936
Taunton DeaneTaunton Manor and Wilton4,333TauntonTaunton Deane3,5263621,09302,13922066303,0221,84027790403,022
Taunton DeaneTaunton Pyrland and Rowbarton4,496TauntonTaunton Deane1,7004381,49001,4693791,28803,1361,2634181,45303,136
Taunton DeaneTrull1,510TauntonTaunton Deane53901620810024301,0536962133401,053
Taunton DeaneWellington East2,629TauntonTaunton Deane9841481,088081312289901,83469914399001,834
Taunton DeaneWellington North3,102TauntonTaunton Deane6241,16852605821,09049102,1635001,10555602,163
Taunton DeaneWellington Rockwell Green and West4,339TauntonTaunton Deane1,9053821,3756311,3432699694453,0261,1553701,3931063,026
Taunton DeaneWest Monkton3,159TauntonTaunton Deane1,696049701,704049902,2031,4654569102,203
Taunton DeaneWiveliscombe and West Deane2,872TauntonTaunton Deane64301301,47657301161,3142,0034922079873142,003
West SomersetAville Vale [2]349TauntonBridgwater and West Somerset36100981910052243164125312243
West SomersetBrompton Ralph and Haddon [2]439TauntonBridgwater and West Somerset13400203122001843061043012644306
West SomersetDulverton and Brushford1,687TauntonBridgwater and West Somerset017201,368013101,0451,17602836412501,176
West SomersetExmoor679TauntonBridgwater and West Somerset-100047400047440712530474
West SomersetQuarme841TauntonBridgwater and West Somerset000-1000587587085360140587
 Total Taunton     29,2815,46418,7666,02159,53225,1907,13225,7671,44159,532

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Taunton at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

PartyGeneral
Election 2005
Votes		Local Election
Turnout-adjusted
Votes 		Votes to
transfer
away		Votes to
transfer
into		Ward Transfers needed
CON25,19129,2814,0900Transfer away 14.0% (= 4090 / 29281) of ward's CON votes
LAB7,1325,46401,668Transfer in 19.2% (= 1668 / 8666) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB25,76418,76606,998Transfer in 80.8% (= 6998 / 8666) of ward's transfer pool votes
OTH1,4416,0214,5800Transfer away 76.1% (= 4580 / 6021) of ward's OTH votes
Total59,52859,5328,6668,666 

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

New seat: Taunton Deane

The new seat of Taunton Deane is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

DistrictWardElectorate
2005		Old SeatNew Seat CON
Votes		LAB
Votes		LIB
Votes		OTH
Votes		Total
Votes
Taunton DeaneBishop's Hull2,873TauntonTaunton Deane849332742802,004
Taunton DeaneBishop's Lydeard3,574TauntonTaunton Deane1,6755276502,493
Taunton DeaneBlackdown1,700TauntonTaunton Deane60236519281,186
Taunton DeaneBradford-on-Tone1,827TauntonTaunton Deane8752737101,275
Taunton DeaneComeytrowe4,250TauntonTaunton Deane1,0901671,70602,964
Taunton DeaneMilverton and North Deane2,533TauntonTaunton Deane1,05071580631,767
Taunton DeaneMonument1,699TauntonTaunton Deane7342242601,184
Taunton DeaneNeroche1,788TauntonTaunton Deane77437413211,247
Taunton DeaneNorth Curry1,392TauntonTaunton Deane3791956011971
Taunton DeaneNorton Fitzwarren1,558TauntonTaunton Deane4961557401,086
Taunton DeaneRuishton and Creech3,165TauntonTaunton Deane884781,161822,207
Taunton DeaneStaplegrove3,022TauntonTaunton Deane1,26521063002,107
Taunton DeaneStoke St.Gregory1,114TauntonTaunton Deane0113477185777
Taunton DeaneTaunton Blackbrook and Holway5,069TauntonTaunton Deane1,1442802,11003,535
Taunton DeaneTaunton Eastgate3,369TauntonTaunton Deane7462781,285392,350
Taunton DeaneTaunton Fairwater4,549TauntonTaunton Deane1,3702201,58103,173
Taunton DeaneTaunton Halcon4,698TauntonTaunton Deane8008561,584333,276
Taunton DeaneTaunton Killams and Mountfield2,534TauntonTaunton Deane1,01311663701,768
Taunton DeaneTaunton Lyngford4,209TauntonTaunton Deane6451,1771,088242,936
Taunton DeaneTaunton Manor and Wilton4,333TauntonTaunton Deane1,84027790403,022
Taunton DeaneTaunton Pyrland and Rowbarton4,496TauntonTaunton Deane1,2634181,45303,136
Taunton DeaneTrull1,510TauntonTaunton Deane6962133401,053
Taunton DeaneWellington East2,629TauntonTaunton Deane69914399001,834
Taunton DeaneWellington North3,102TauntonTaunton Deane5001,10555602,163
Taunton DeaneWellington Rockwell Green and West4,339TauntonTaunton Deane1,1553701,3931063,026
Taunton DeaneWest Monkton3,159TauntonTaunton Deane1,4654569102,203
Taunton DeaneWiveliscombe and West Deane2,872TauntonTaunton Deane4922079873142,003
 Total  Taunton Deane24,5136,70724,53199356,746

And these are the implied results for 2005 for the new seat of Taunton Deane.