Tavistock and Plympton: New Boundaries 2013 Calculation

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2010 had the new boundaries for Tavistock and Plympton been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2010. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Due to changes in ward boundaries, some new wards are divided among several old constituencies (and sometimes in Scotland between two new constituencies). Such wards are shown divided into several parts, called [1], [2], and so on.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2010 from the period 2007-2011. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed. Where zero votes are shown, the ward results have not yet been acquired, and the implied result is still provisional and will be improved later.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% of its votes from each ward. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done on a ward-by-ward basis using these common percentages.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Tavistock and Plympton

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Plymouth Moor View

Workings for Plymouth Moor View

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the old seat of Plymouth Moor View. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. Details of the transfer calculation are given below this table.

Old seat: Plymouth Moor ViewActual ResultsTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
Electorate
2010
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
OTH
Votes
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
PlymouthBudshead20109,6602,0772,0121,0246232,1192,0521,0456365,852
PlymouthEggbuckland201010,3552,6911,9691,2561,0302,4301,7781,1349306,272
PlymouthHam20109,6311,4342,2529209771,4982,3539611,0215,833
PlymouthHonicknowle201010,2981,2652,4079209751,4172,6971,0311,0926,237
PlymouthMoor View20109,2571,9662,2061,1237001,8392,0631,0506555,607
PlymouthSouthway20109,7132,1832,1601,0296782,1232,1011,0016595,884
PlymouthSt Budeaux20109,6421,4502,2269058801,5512,3819689415,841
 Total 68,556    12,97715,4257,1905,93441,526

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Plymouth Moor View at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

PartyGeneral
Election 2010
Votes
Local Election
Turnout-adjusted
Votes
Votes to
transfer
away
Votes to
transfer
into
Ward Transfers needed
CON13,84512,9770868Transfer in 99.1% (= 868 / 876) of ward's transfer pool votes
LAB15,43315,42508Transfer in 0.9% (= 8 / 876) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB7,0167,1901740Transfer away 2.4% (= 174 / 7190) of ward's LIB votes
OTH5,2325,9347020Transfer away 11.8% (= 702 / 5934) of ward's OTH votes
Total41,52641,526876876 

Main table for Plymouth Moor View

The main table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Plymouth Moor View, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Plymouth Moor ViewTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2010
New Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
PlymouthBudshead9,660Plymouth Devonport2,2192,0531,0205615,852
PlymouthEggbuckland10,355Plymouth Sutton2,5661,7791,1078206,272
PlymouthHam9,631Plymouth Devonport1,6412,3549389005,833
PlymouthHonicknowle10,298Plymouth Devonport1,5702,6981,0069636,237
PlymouthMoor View9,257Tavistock and Plympton1,9412,0641,0255785,607
PlymouthSouthway9,713Plymouth Devonport2,2242,1029775815,884
PlymouthSt Budeaux9,642Plymouth Devonport1,6852,3829458305,841
 Total68,556 13,84615,4327,0185,23341,526

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

Old seat: Devon South West

Workings for Devon South West

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the old seat of Devon South West. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. Details of the transfer calculation are given below this table.

Old seat: Devon South WestActual ResultsTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
Electorate
2010
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
OTH
Votes
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
PlymouthPlympton Chaddlewood20106,2191,8167819703932,0108641,0734354,382
PlymouthPlympton Erle20116,9141,59783404612,6901,40507774,872
PlymouthPlympton St Mary201010,1133,5971,4241,4276393,6171,4321,4356437,127
PlymouthPlymstock Dunstone20109,8283,3631,2351,5787633,3561,2331,5757626,926
PlymouthPlymstock Radford20109,8222,6811,0921,4631,4412,7791,1321,5171,4946,922
South HamsBickleigh and Shaugh20113,7381,46003908451,42703818262,634
South HamsCharterlands20111,715673026610677803081231,209
South HamsCornwood and Sparkwell20111,9184310614626110866551,352
South HamsErme Valley20114,0772,32809714361,79107473352,873
South HamsIvybridge Central20111,985-10001,3990001,399
South HamsIvybridge Filham20113,9581,4003575764131,4223635854192,789
South HamsIvybridge Woodlands20113,4231,53102197261,49102137072,411
South HamsNewton and Noss20111,566-10001,1040001,104
South HamsWembury and Brixton20113,7592,387004682,215004342,649
South HamsYealmpton20111,72131306470395081701,212
 Total 70,756    27,0856,4298,7377,61049,861

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Devon South West at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

PartyGeneral
Election 2010
Votes
Local Election
Turnout-adjusted
Votes
Votes to
transfer
away
Votes to
transfer
into
Ward Transfers needed
CON27,90827,0850823Transfer in 20.0% (= 823 / 4120) of ward's transfer pool votes
LAB6,1936,4292360Transfer away 3.7% (= 236 / 6429) of ward's LAB votes
LIB12,0348,73703,297Transfer in 80.0% (= 3297 / 4120) of ward's transfer pool votes
OTH3,7257,6103,8850Transfer away 51.1% (= 3885 / 7610) of ward's OTH votes
Total49,86049,8614,1204,120 

Main table for Devon South West

The main table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Devon South West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Devon South WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2010
New Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
PlymouthPlympton Chaddlewood6,219Tavistock and Plympton2,0618321,2762134,382
PlymouthPlympton Erle6,914Tavistock and Plympton2,7801,3533593804,872
PlymouthPlympton St Mary10,113Tavistock and Plympton3,6931,3791,7403157,127
PlymouthPlymstock Dunstone9,828Plymouth Sutton3,4431,1881,9233736,926
PlymouthPlymstock Radford9,822Plymouth Sutton2,9401,0902,1617316,922
South HamsBickleigh and Shaugh3,738Tavistock and Plympton1,51107184042,634
South HamsCharterlands1,715Devon South7910358601,209
South HamsCornwood and Sparkwell1,918Tavistock and Plympton67803543211,352
South HamsErme Valley4,077Devon South1,82508841642,873
South HamsIvybridge Central1,985Tavistock and Plympton1,3990001,399
South HamsIvybridge Filham3,958Tavistock and Plympton1,4673507672052,789
South HamsIvybridge Woodlands3,423Tavistock and Plympton1,56305023462,411
South HamsNewton and Noss1,566Tavistock and Plympton1,1040001,104
South HamsWembury and Brixton3,759Tavistock and Plympton2,25901772122,649
South HamsYealmpton1,721Tavistock and Plympton395081701,212
 Total70,756 27,9096,19212,0363,72449,861

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

Old seat: Devon West and Torridge

Workings for Devon West and Torridge

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the old seat of Devon West and Torridge. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. Details of the transfer calculation are given below this table.

Old seat: Devon West and TorridgeActual ResultsTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
Electorate
2010
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
OTH
Votes
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
TorridgeAppledore20112,332828035182468802926851,665
TorridgeBideford East20114,4411,1622893791,2821,1842943861,3063,170
TorridgeBideford North20114,3261,0934451,3281,1908323391,0119063,088
TorridgeBideford South20114,0161,46748474901,55751479502,866
TorridgeBroadheath20111,3644010346052304510974
TorridgeClinton20111,299000712000927927
TorridgeClovelly Bay20111,2872270481029506240919
TorridgeCoham Bridge20111,3315430189070502450950
TorridgeForest20111,42059201040862015101,013
TorridgeHartland and Bradworthy20112,441646096763650007494931,742
TorridgeHolsworthy20113,1557410982096801,28302,251
TorridgeKenwith20111,423406153162057221622801,016
TorridgeMonkleigh and Littleham20111,226000-1000875875
TorridgeNortham20114,5042,8665241,11502,04537479603,215
TorridgeOrchard Hill20111,47700172475002807741,054
TorridgeShebbear and Langtree20111,58246802730713041601,129
TorridgeTamarside20111,360000-1000971971
TorridgeThree Moors20111,3855320971606670122200989
TorridgeTorrington20114,2268093128501,4807072737431,2943,017
TorridgeTwo Rivers20111,41146500294617003901,007
TorridgeWaldon20111,371000704000979979
TorridgeWestward Ho!20111,82839000478586007191,305
TorridgeWinkleigh20111,715000-10001,2241,224
West DevonBere Ferrers20112,5091,075235918086418973801,791
West DevonBridestowe20111,3240170062402020743945
West DevonBuckland Monachorum20112,726-10-10973097301,946
West DevonBurrator20111,2643950306050803940902
West DevonLydford20111,2503430263050503870892
West DevonMary Tavy20111,3913050055435300640993
West DevonMilton Ford20111,351-1000964000964
West DevonTamarside20111,30435201151924970162271930
West DevonTavistock North20114,3481,8823671,1441,5281,1872317219643,103
West DevonTavistock South20113,4531,5442911,1441,2578981696667312,464
West DevonTavistock South West20111,720301122358047319256301,228
West DevonThrushel20111,3764770196069602860982
West DevonWalkham20112,481698044268667704296651,771
 Total 77,417    22,6162,99313,89115,75755,257

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Devon West and Torridge at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

PartyGeneral
Election 2010
Votes
Local Election
Turnout-adjusted
Votes
Votes to
transfer
away
Votes to
transfer
into
Ward Transfers needed
CON25,23022,61602,614Transfer in 23.8% (= 2614 / 10996) of ward's transfer pool votes
LAB2,9172,993760Transfer away 2.5% (= 76 / 2993) of ward's LAB votes
LIB22,27313,89108,382Transfer in 76.2% (= 8382 / 10996) of ward's transfer pool votes
OTH4,83715,75710,9200Transfer away 69.3% (= 10920 / 15757) of ward's OTH votes
Total55,25755,25710,99610,996 

Main table for Devon West and Torridge

The main table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Devon West and Torridge, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Devon West and TorridgeTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2010
New Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
TorridgeAppledore2,332Bideford, Bude and Launceston80106542101,665
TorridgeBideford East4,441Bideford, Bude and Launceston1,4012871,0824013,170
TorridgeBideford North4,326Bideford, Bude and Launceston9833301,4962783,088
TorridgeBideford South4,016Bideford, Bude and Launceston1,56050180502,866
TorridgeBroadheath1,364Bideford, Bude and Launceston52304510974
TorridgeClinton1,299Devon Central1530490285927
TorridgeClovelly Bay1,287Bideford, Bude and Launceston29506240919
TorridgeCoham Bridge1,331Devon Central70502450950
TorridgeForest1,420Bideford, Bude and Launceston862015101,013
TorridgeHartland and Bradworthy2,441Bideford, Bude and Launceston58101,0091511,742
TorridgeHolsworthy3,155Bideford, Bude and Launceston96801,28302,251
TorridgeKenwith1,423Bideford, Bude and Launceston57321123201,016
TorridgeMonkleigh and Littleham1,226Bideford, Bude and Launceston1440462269875
TorridgeNortham4,504Bideford, Bude and Launceston2,04736580303,215
TorridgeOrchard Hill1,477Bideford, Bude and Launceston12806892381,054
TorridgeShebbear and Langtree1,582Devon Central713041601,129
TorridgeTamarside1,360Bideford, Bude and Launceston1600513298971
TorridgeThree Moors1,385Devon Central700022861989
TorridgeTorrington4,226Bideford, Bude and Launceston9222661,4323973,017
TorridgeTwo Rivers1,411Devon Central68102061201,007
TorridgeWaldon1,371Bideford, Bude and Launceston1610517301979
TorridgeWestward Ho!1,828Bideford, Bude and Launceston70403802211,305
TorridgeWinkleigh1,715Devon Central20206473761,224
West DevonBere Ferrers2,509Tavistock and Plympton86518474201,791
West DevonBridestowe1,324Devon Central124197396228945
West DevonBuckland Monachorum2,726Tavistock and Plympton973097301,946
West DevonBurrator1,264Tavistock and Plympton50803940902
West DevonLydford1,250Tavistock and Plympton50503870892
West DevonMary Tavy1,391Tavistock and Plympton4580338196993
West DevonMilton Ford1,351Tavistock and Plympton964000964
West DevonTamarside1,304Tavistock and Plympton542030583930
West DevonTavistock North4,348Tavistock and Plympton1,3472251,2352963,103
West DevonTavistock South3,453Tavistock and Plympton1,0191651,0552242,464
West DevonTavistock South West1,720Tavistock and Plympton47418756701,228
West DevonThrushel1,376Tavistock and Plympton69602860982
West DevonWalkham2,481Tavistock and Plympton78707802041,771
 Total77,417 25,2292,91822,2734,83755,257

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

New seat: Tavistock and Plympton

The new seat of Tavistock and Plympton is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Tavistock and Plympton
DistrictWardElectorate
2010
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
PlymouthMoor View9,257Plymouth Moor View1,9412,0641,0255785,607
PlymouthPlympton Chaddlewood6,219Devon South West2,0618321,2762134,382
PlymouthPlympton Erle6,914Devon South West2,7801,3533593804,872
PlymouthPlympton St Mary10,113Devon South West3,6931,3791,7403157,127
South HamsBickleigh and Shaugh3,738Devon South West1,51107184042,634
South HamsCornwood and Sparkwell1,918Devon South West67803543211,352
South HamsIvybridge Central1,985Devon South West1,3990001,399
South HamsIvybridge Filham3,958Devon South West1,4673507672052,789
South HamsIvybridge Woodlands3,423Devon South West1,56305023462,411
South HamsNewton and Noss1,566Devon South West1,1040001,104
South HamsWembury and Brixton3,759Devon South West2,25901772122,649
South HamsYealmpton1,721Devon South West395081701,212
West DevonBere Ferrers2,509Devon West and Torridge86518474201,791
West DevonBuckland Monachorum2,726Devon West and Torridge973097301,946
West DevonBurrator1,264Devon West and Torridge50803940902
West DevonLydford1,250Devon West and Torridge50503870892
West DevonMary Tavy1,391Devon West and Torridge4580338196993
West DevonMilton Ford1,351Devon West and Torridge964000964
West DevonTamarside1,304Devon West and Torridge542030583930
West DevonTavistock North4,348Devon West and Torridge1,3472251,2352963,103
West DevonTavistock South3,453Devon West and Torridge1,0191651,0552242,464
West DevonTavistock South West1,720Devon West and Torridge47418756701,228
West DevonThrushel1,376Devon West and Torridge69602860982
West DevonWalkham2,481Devon West and Torridge78707802041,771
 Total79,744 29,9896,73914,7973,97755,502

And these are the implied results for 2010 for the new seat of Tavistock and Plympton.