Telford: New Boundaries Calculation

Due to changes in ward boundaries, some new wards are divided among several old constituencies (though never between two new constituencies). Such wards are shown divided into several parts, called [1], [2], and so on.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election from 2003, 2004 or 2006. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed. Where zero votes are shown, the ward is not needed because the entire old seat is unsplit.

Calculation method: There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% of its votes from each ward. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done on a ward-by-ward basis using these common percentages.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

The old seat(s) needed are:

• Wrekin, The
• Telford

Old seat: Wrekin, The

					Actual Results				Turnout-adjusted Results					Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2005	Old Seat	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Bridgnorth	Albrighton South	2,370	Wrekin, The	Wrekin, The	0	520	342	476	0	614	404	562	1,580	260	861	367	89	1,580
Bridgnorth	Donington and Albrighton North	2,546	Wrekin, The	Wrekin, The	552	273	190	795	518	256	178	746	1,698	847	569	161	119	1,698
Bridgnorth	Shifnal Idsall	2,267	Wrekin, The	Wrekin, The	0	-1	0	-1	0	756	0	756	1,512	325	1,065	0	120	1,512
Bridgnorth	Shifnal Manor	2,099	Wrekin, The	Wrekin, The	437	206	0	354	614	289	0	497	1,400	828	492	0	79	1,400
Bridgnorth	Shifnal Rural	1,353	Wrekin, The	Wrekin, The	177	0	0	172	458	0	0	445	903	649	182	0	71	903
Telford And Wrekin	Apley Castle	2,235	Wrekin, The	Wrekin, The	301	389	647	0	336	434	721	0	1,491	369	465	655	0	1,491
Telford And Wrekin	Arleston	2,230	Wrekin, The	Wrekin, The	346	815	0	0	443	1,044	0	0	1,487	443	1,044	0	0	1,487
Telford And Wrekin	Church Aston and Lilleshall	2,333	Wrekin, The	Wrekin, The	851	258	355	0	904	274	377	0	1,555	921	290	342	0	1,555
Telford And Wrekin	College	2,122	Wrekin, The	Wrekin, The	428	0	0	950	440	0	0	976	1,416	860	399	0	156	1,416
Telford And Wrekin	Donnington	4,377	Wrekin, The	Wrekin, The	770	2,618	0	0	663	2,256	0	0	2,919	663	2,256	0	0	2,919
Telford And Wrekin	Dothill	1,885	Wrekin, The	Wrekin, The	0	240	655	209	0	273	746	238	1,257	137	403	678	38	1,257
Telford And Wrekin	Edgmond	2,118	Wrekin, The	Wrekin, The	695	251	0	354	755	273	0	385	1,413	920	430	0	61	1,413
Telford And Wrekin	Ercall	2,394	Wrekin, The	Wrekin, The	936	481	0	0	1,055	542	0	0	1,597	1,055	542	0	0	1,597
Telford And Wrekin	Ercall Magna	2,271	Wrekin, The	Wrekin, The	0	0	0	1,083	0	0	0	1,515	1,515	652	620	0	242	1,515
Telford And Wrekin	Hadley and Leegomery	7,007	Wrekin, The	Wrekin, The	451	3,367	0	2,375	340	2,541	0	1,792	4,673	1,112	3,274	0	286	4,673
Telford And Wrekin	Haygate	2,158	Wrekin, The	Wrekin, The	549	363	0	183	722	477	0	241	1,440	825	575	0	38	1,440
Telford And Wrekin	Horsehay and Lightmoor [2]	0	Wrekin, The	Telford	811	721	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Telford And Wrekin	Ketley and Oakengates [2]	2,517	Wrekin, The	Telford	1,830	4,115	1,005	0	442	994	243	0	1,679	453	1,004	220	0	1,679
Telford And Wrekin	Muxton	4,563	Wrekin, The	Wrekin, The	1,950	1,635	0	499	1,453	1,218	0	372	3,043	1,613	1,370	0	59	3,043
Telford And Wrekin	Newport East	2,064	Wrekin, The	Wrekin, The	272	0	844	0	335	0	1,041	0	1,376	383	45	946	0	1,376
Telford And Wrekin	Newport North	2,221	Wrekin, The	Wrekin, The	390	0	826	0	475	0	1,006	0	1,481	521	44	914	0	1,481
Telford And Wrekin	Newport South	2,088	Wrekin, The	Wrekin, The	441	0	667	0	554	0	838	0	1,392	592	37	762	0	1,392
Telford And Wrekin	Newport West	2,035	Wrekin, The	Wrekin, The	273	233	183	424	333	284	223	517	1,357	566	505	202	82	1,357
Telford And Wrekin	Park	2,119	Wrekin, The	Wrekin, The	371	324	346	305	390	340	363	320	1,413	544	487	330	51	1,413
Telford And Wrekin	Priorslee [2]	2,087	Wrekin, The	Telford	2,141	0	0	1,530	812	0	0	580	1,392	1,061	237	0	92	1,392
Telford And Wrekin	Shawbirch	2,291	Wrekin, The	Wrekin, The	170	170	955	0	201	201	1,127	0	1,529	253	250	1,024	0	1,529
Telford And Wrekin	Wrockwardine [2]	3,806	Wrekin, The	Wrekin, The	2,658	656	0	0	2,036	502	0	0	2,538	2,036	502	0	0	2,538
	Total		Wrekin, The						14,279	13,568	7,267	9,942	45,056	18,900	17,957	6,608	1,590	45,056

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Wrekin, The at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

Party	General Election 2005 Votes	Local Election Turnout-adjusted Votes	Votes to transfer away	Votes to transfer into	Ward Transfers needed
CON	18,899	14,279	0	4,620	Transfer in 51.3% (= 4620 / 9009) of ward's transfer pool votes
LAB	17,957	13,568	0	4,389	Transfer in 48.7% (= 4389 / 9009) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB	6,608	7,267	659	0	Transfer away 9.1% (= 659 / 7267) of ward's LIB votes
OTH	1,590	9,942	8,352	0	Transfer away 84.0% (= 8352 / 9942) of ward's OTH votes
Total	45,054	45,056	9,009	9,009

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

Old seat: Telford

					Actual Results				Turnout-adjusted Results					Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2005	Old Seat	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Telford And Wrekin	Brookside	4,817	Telford	Telford	1,387	2,122	0	0	1,090	1,668	0	0	2,758	1,090	1,666	0	0	2,758
Telford And Wrekin	Cuckoo Oak	4,109	Telford	Telford	858	1,326	0	1,045	625	966	0	761	2,352	880	965	283	223	2,352
Telford And Wrekin	Dawley Magna	6,979	Telford	Telford	1,722	4,278	0	664	1,033	2,565	0	398	3,996	1,167	2,563	148	116	3,996
Telford And Wrekin	Horsehay and Lightmoor [1]	2,181	Telford	Telford	811	721	0	0	661	588	0	0	1,249	661	587	0	0	1,249
Telford And Wrekin	Ironbridge Gorge	1,995	Telford	Telford	271	614	217	0	281	636	225	0	1,142	281	635	225	0	1,142
Telford And Wrekin	Ketley and Oakengates [1]	4,290	Telford	Telford	1,830	4,115	1,005	0	647	1,454	355	0	2,456	647	1,453	355	0	2,456
Telford And Wrekin	Lawley and Overdale	3,537	Telford	Telford	0	1,067	0	1,200	0	953	0	1,072	2,025	359	952	398	314	2,025
Telford And Wrekin	Madeley	4,291	Telford	Telford	1,006	1,508	0	1,166	672	1,007	0	779	2,458	933	1,006	290	228	2,458
Telford And Wrekin	Malinslee	4,322	Telford	Telford	212	1,534	1,137	70	178	1,286	953	59	2,476	198	1,285	975	17	2,476
Telford And Wrekin	Priorslee [1]	2,651	Telford	Telford	2,141	0	0	1,530	885	0	0	633	1,518	1,097	0	235	185	1,518
Telford And Wrekin	St Georges	4,307	Telford	Telford	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Telford And Wrekin	The Nedge	6,706	Telford	Telford	2,226	3,324	0	972	1,311	1,957	0	572	3,840	1,503	1,955	213	167	3,840
Telford And Wrekin	Woodside	4,286	Telford	Telford	561	1,898	0	0	560	1,894	0	0	2,454	560	1,892	0	0	2,454
Telford And Wrekin	Wrockwardine [1]	189	Telford	Wrekin, The	2,658	656	0	0	87	21	0	0	108	87	20	0	0	108
Telford And Wrekin	Wrockwardine Wood and Trench	5,077	Telford	Telford	0	2,325	0	2,116	0	1,522	0	1,385	2,907	464	1,520	515	406	2,907
	Total		Telford						8,030	16,517	1,533	5,659	31,739	9,930	16,506	3,643	1,658	31,739

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Telford at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

Party	General Election 2005 Votes	Local Election Turnout-adjusted Votes	Votes to transfer away	Votes to transfer into	Ward Transfers needed
CON	11,100	8,030	0	3,070	Transfer in 47.4% (= 3070 / 6478) of ward's transfer pool votes
LAB	16,506	16,517	11	0	Transfer away 0.1% (= 11 / 16517) of ward's LAB votes
LIB	4,941	1,533	0	3,408	Transfer in 52.6% (= 3408 / 6478) of ward's transfer pool votes
OTH	1,659	5,659	4,000	0	Transfer away 70.7% (= 4000 / 5659) of ward's OTH votes
Total	34,206	31,739	6,478	6,478

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

New seat: Telford

District	Ward	Electorate 2005	Old Seat	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Telford And Wrekin	Brookside	4,817	Telford	Telford	1,090	1,666	0	0	2,758
Telford And Wrekin	Cuckoo Oak	4,109	Telford	Telford	880	965	283	223	2,352
Telford And Wrekin	Dawley Magna	6,979	Telford	Telford	1,167	2,563	148	116	3,996
Telford And Wrekin	Horsehay and Lightmoor [1]	2,181	Telford	Telford	661	587	0	0	1,249
Telford And Wrekin	Horsehay and Lightmoor [2]	0	Wrekin, The	Telford	0	0	0	0	0
Telford And Wrekin	Ironbridge Gorge	1,995	Telford	Telford	281	635	225	0	1,142
Telford And Wrekin	Ketley and Oakengates [1]	4,290	Telford	Telford	647	1,453	355	0	2,456
Telford And Wrekin	Ketley and Oakengates [2]	2,517	Wrekin, The	Telford	453	1,004	220	0	1,679
Telford And Wrekin	Lawley and Overdale	3,537	Telford	Telford	359	952	398	314	2,025
Telford And Wrekin	Madeley	4,291	Telford	Telford	933	1,006	290	228	2,458
Telford And Wrekin	Malinslee	4,322	Telford	Telford	198	1,285	975	17	2,476
Telford And Wrekin	Priorslee [1]	2,651	Telford	Telford	1,097	0	235	185	1,518
Telford And Wrekin	Priorslee [2]	2,087	Wrekin, The	Telford	1,061	237	0	92	1,392
Telford And Wrekin	St Georges	4,307	Telford	Telford	0	0	0	0	0
Telford And Wrekin	The Nedge	6,706	Telford	Telford	1,503	1,955	213	167	3,840
Telford And Wrekin	Woodside	4,286	Telford	Telford	560	1,892	0	0	2,454
Telford And Wrekin	Wrockwardine Wood and Trench	5,077	Telford	Telford	464	1,520	515	406	2,907
	Total			Telford	11,359	17,727	3,864	1,751	34,702

And these are the implied results for 2005 for the new seat of Telford.