Tewkesbury: New Boundaries Calculation

Due to changes in ward boundaries, some new wards are divided among several old constituencies (though never between two new constituencies). Such wards are shown divided into several parts, called [1], [2], and so on.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election from 2003, 2004 or 2006. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed. Where zero votes are shown, the ward is not needed because the entire old seat is unsplit.

Calculation method: There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% of its votes from each ward. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done on a ward-by-ward basis using these common percentages.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

The old seat(s) needed are:

• Gloucester
• Cheltenham
• Tewkesbury

Old seat: Gloucester

					Actual Results				Turnout-adjusted Results					Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2005	Old Seat	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
City Of Gloucester	Abbey	7,179	Gloucester	Gloucester	1,462	502	405	148	2,630	903	729	266	4,528	2,246	1,613	378	289	4,528
City Of Gloucester	Barnwood	6,795	Gloucester	Gloucester	1,048	408	1,005	0	1,825	710	1,750	0	4,285	1,559	1,782	907	35	4,285
City Of Gloucester	Barton and Tredworth	6,877	Gloucester	Gloucester	384	728	753	200	807	1,529	1,581	420	4,337	689	2,379	820	448	4,337
City Of Gloucester	Elmbridge	4,294	Gloucester	Gloucester	692	330	742	90	1,011	482	1,084	131	2,708	863	1,129	562	152	2,708
City Of Gloucester	Grange	4,498	Gloucester	Gloucester	885	583	247	0	1,464	964	409	0	2,837	1,250	1,361	212	13	2,837
City Of Gloucester	Hucclecote	7,147	Gloucester	Gloucester	1,075	292	1,455	228	1,589	432	2,150	337	4,508	1,357	1,657	1,115	377	4,508
City Of Gloucester	Kingsholm and Wotton	4,905	Gloucester	Gloucester	573	293	974	0	963	493	1,637	0	3,093	822	1,391	849	29	3,093
City Of Gloucester	Longlevens	7,223	Gloucester	Tewkesbury	1,650	247	1,704	0	2,087	312	2,156	0	4,555	1,782	1,610	1,118	42	4,555
City Of Gloucester	Matson and Robinswood	7,416	Gloucester	Gloucester	873	1,050	350	0	1,796	2,161	720	0	4,677	1,534	2,749	373	19	4,677
City Of Gloucester	Moreland	6,936	Gloucester	Gloucester	695	915	242	231	1,459	1,921	508	485	4,373	1,246	2,363	263	499	4,373
City Of Gloucester	Podsmead	2,226	Gloucester	Gloucester	274	412	252	0	410	617	377	0	1,404	350	850	195	7	1,404
City Of Gloucester	Quedgley Fieldcourt	4,008	Gloucester	Gloucester	726	266	166	0	1,585	581	362	0	2,528	1,353	973	187	12	2,528
City Of Gloucester	Quedgley Severn Vale	4,670	Gloucester	Gloucester	869	277	183	0	1,926	614	406	0	2,946	1,645	1,074	210	15	2,946
City Of Gloucester	Tuffley	4,528	Gloucester	Gloucester	822	625	264	0	1,372	1,043	441	0	2,856	1,172	1,442	228	13	2,856
City Of Gloucester	Westgate	3,439	Gloucester	Gloucester	718	144	478	0	1,162	233	774	0	2,169	992	757	401	17	2,169
	Total		Gloucester						22,086	12,995	15,084	1,639	51,804	18,866	23,138	7,825	1,973	51,804

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Gloucester at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

Party	General Election 2005 Votes	Local Election Turnout-adjusted Votes	Votes to transfer away	Votes to transfer into	Ward Transfers needed
CON	18,867	22,086	3,219	0	Transfer away 14.6% (= 3219 / 22086) of ward's CON votes
LAB	23,138	12,995	0	10,143	Transfer in 96.8% (= 10143 / 10477) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB	7,825	15,084	7,259	0	Transfer away 48.1% (= 7259 / 15084) of ward's LIB votes
OTH	1,973	1,639	0	334	Transfer in 3.2% (= 334 / 10477) of ward's transfer pool votes
Total	51,803	51,804	10,477	10,477

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

Old seat: Cheltenham

					Actual Results				Turnout-adjusted Results					Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2005	Old Seat	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Cheltenham	All Saints	4,079	Cheltenham	Cheltenham	489	128	636	183	852	223	1,108	319	2,502	738	266	1,169	327	2,502
Cheltenham	Battledown	3,530	Cheltenham	Cheltenham	1,035	142	523	0	1,318	181	666	0	2,165	1,142	247	760	13	2,165
Cheltenham	Benhall and The Reddings	4,006	Cheltenham	Cheltenham	1,034	121	780	0	1,313	154	991	0	2,458	1,138	220	1,085	13	2,458
Cheltenham	Charlton Kings	4,219	Cheltenham	Cheltenham	1,116	196	729	0	1,415	249	924	0	2,588	1,227	320	1,025	14	2,588
Cheltenham	Charlton Park	3,969	Cheltenham	Cheltenham	1,284	138	583	0	1,559	168	708	0	2,435	1,351	246	819	16	2,435
Cheltenham	College	4,227	Cheltenham	Cheltenham	684	100	841	177	984	144	1,210	255	2,593	853	193	1,280	265	2,593
Cheltenham	Hesters Way	4,527	Cheltenham	Cheltenham	235	105	556	365	518	231	1,224	804	2,777	449	257	1,261	809	2,777
Cheltenham	Lansdown	4,156	Cheltenham	Cheltenham	837	103	326	105	1,556	192	606	195	2,549	1,349	270	717	211	2,549
Cheltenham	Leckhampton [1]	2,944	Cheltenham	Cheltenham	1,466	118	500	0	1,270	102	433	0	1,805	1,101	166	524	13	1,805
Cheltenham	Oakley [1]	3,758	Cheltenham	Cheltenham	327	502	492	0	571	876	859	0	2,306	495	904	900	5	2,306
Cheltenham	Park	4,756	Cheltenham	Cheltenham	1,199	169	660	0	1,725	243	949	0	2,917	1,495	330	1,072	18	2,917
Cheltenham	Pittville	4,227	Cheltenham	Cheltenham	576	0	268	1,006	807	0	376	1,410	2,593	699	40	433	1,418	2,593
Cheltenham	Prestbury [1]	20	Cheltenham	Tewkesbury	593	104	166	1,226	3	1	1	7	12	2	1	1	7	12
Cheltenham	Springbank	4,509	Cheltenham	Cheltenham	360	129	566	0	944	338	1,484	0	2,766	818	385	1,551	9	2,766
Cheltenham	St Mark's	4,474	Cheltenham	Cheltenham	504	250	657	0	980	486	1,278	0	2,744	849	535	1,348	10	2,744
Cheltenham	St Paul's	4,246	Cheltenham	Cheltenham	146	0	557	173	434	0	1,656	514	2,604	376	21	1,687	518	2,604
Cheltenham	St Peter's	4,472	Cheltenham	Cheltenham	484	137	596	114	998	282	1,228	235	2,743	865	332	1,299	245	2,743
Cheltenham	Swindon Village [1]	1,911	Cheltenham	Tewkesbury	247	87	613	672	179	63	444	487	1,173	155	72	456	488	1,173
Cheltenham	Up Hatherley [1]	1,779	Cheltenham	Cheltenham	641	117	612	461	382	70	365	275	1,092	331	89	392	278	1,092
Cheltenham	Warden Hill [1]	1,300	Cheltenham	Cheltenham	1,178	171	820	0	433	63	301	0	797	375	84	332	4	797
	Total		Cheltenham						18,241	4,066	16,811	4,501	43,619	15,819	4,987	18,120	4,691	43,619

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Cheltenham at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

Party	General Election 2005 Votes	Local Election Turnout-adjusted Votes	Votes to transfer away	Votes to transfer into	Ward Transfers needed
CON	15,819	18,241	2,422	0	Transfer away 13.3% (= 2422 / 18241) of ward's CON votes
LAB	4,988	4,066	0	922	Transfer in 38.0% (= 922 / 2424) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB	18,122	16,811	0	1,311	Transfer in 54.1% (= 1311 / 2424) of ward's transfer pool votes
OTH	4,692	4,501	0	191	Transfer in 7.9% (= 191 / 2424) of ward's transfer pool votes
Total	43,621	43,619	2,424	2,424

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

Old seat: Tewkesbury

					Actual Results				Turnout-adjusted Results					Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2005	Old Seat	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Cheltenham	Leckhampton [2]	1,066	Tewkesbury	Cheltenham	1,466	118	500	0	474	38	162	0	674	474	38	162	0	674
Cheltenham	Oakley [2]	340	Tewkesbury	Cheltenham	327	502	492	0	53	82	80	0	215	53	82	80	0	215
Cheltenham	Prestbury [2]	4,544	Tewkesbury	Tewkesbury	593	104	166	1,226	816	143	228	1,687	2,874	1,333	795	470	274	2,874
Cheltenham	Swindon Village [2]	2,553	Tewkesbury	Tewkesbury	247	87	613	672	246	87	612	670	1,615	451	346	708	109	1,615
Cheltenham	Up Hatherley [2]	2,387	Tewkesbury	Cheltenham	641	117	612	461	529	96	505	380	1,510	645	242	559	61	1,510
Cheltenham	Warden Hill [2]	3,065	Tewkesbury	Cheltenham	1,178	171	820	0	1,053	153	733	0	1,939	1,053	153	733	0	1,939
Tewkesbury	Ashchurch with Walton Cardiff	2,400	Tewkesbury	Tewkesbury	377	0	573	493	397	0	603	519	1,519	556	200	677	84	1,519
Tewkesbury	Badgeworth	1,788	Tewkesbury	Tewkesbury	395	0	195	0	757	0	374	0	1,131	757	0	374	0	1,131
Tewkesbury	Brockworth	4,972	Tewkesbury	Tewkesbury	900	1,710	0	2,453	559	1,062	0	1,524	3,145	1,026	1,651	219	247	3,145
Tewkesbury	Churchdown Brookfield	3,364	Tewkesbury	Tewkesbury	1,388	0	1,565	0	1,000	0	1,128	0	2,128	1,000	0	1,128	0	2,128
Tewkesbury	Churchdown St John's	5,191	Tewkesbury	Tewkesbury	1,581	1,023	2,090	0	1,106	716	1,462	0	3,284	1,106	716	1,462	0	3,284
Tewkesbury	Cleeve Grange	1,597	Tewkesbury	Tewkesbury	224	44	441	0	319	63	628	0	1,010	319	63	628	0	1,010
Tewkesbury	Cleeve Hill	2,999	Tewkesbury	Tewkesbury	1,393	0	571	0	1,346	0	552	0	1,898	1,346	0	552	0	1,898
Tewkesbury	Cleeve St Michael's	2,999	Tewkesbury	Tewkesbury	1,155	0	487	122	1,242	0	524	131	1,897	1,282	50	542	21	1,897
Tewkesbury	Cleeve West	3,349	Tewkesbury	Tewkesbury	567	85	1,389	0	589	88	1,442	0	2,119	589	88	1,442	0	2,119
Tewkesbury	Coombe Hill	3,654	Tewkesbury	Tewkesbury	1,339	0	320	298	1,582	0	378	352	2,312	1,689	136	428	57	2,312
Tewkesbury	Hucclecote	1,247	Tewkesbury	Tewkesbury	83	116	309	0	129	180	480	0	789	129	180	480	0	789
Tewkesbury	Innsworth with Down Hatherley	1,797	Tewkesbury	Tewkesbury	386	0	358	0	590	0	547	0	1,137	590	0	547	0	1,137
Tewkesbury	Isbourne	1,649	Tewkesbury	Tewkesbury	263	0	0	631	307	0	0	736	1,043	532	284	105	119	1,043
Tewkesbury	Northway	3,737	Tewkesbury	Tewkesbury	431	633	0	179	820	1,204	0	340	2,364	924	1,335	48	55	2,364
Tewkesbury	Oxenton Hill	1,258	Tewkesbury	Tewkesbury	497	0	64	0	705	0	91	0	796	705	0	91	0	796
Tewkesbury	Shurdington	1,554	Tewkesbury	Tewkesbury	379	144	0	0	712	271	0	0	983	712	271	0	0	983
Tewkesbury	Tewkesbury Newtown	1,569	Tewkesbury	Tewkesbury	131	0	0	480	213	0	0	780	993	452	301	112	126	993
Tewkesbury	Tewkesbury Prior's Park	2,968	Tewkesbury	Tewkesbury	570	549	73	272	731	704	94	349	1,878	838	838	144	56	1,878
Tewkesbury	Tewkesbury Town with Mitton	3,373	Tewkesbury	Tewkesbury	474	0	220	1,455	471	0	218	1,445	2,134	914	558	425	235	2,134
Tewkesbury	Twyning	1,419	Tewkesbury	Tewkesbury	362	60	0	146	572	95	0	231	898	642	184	33	37	898
Tewkesbury	Winchcombe	5,010	Tewkesbury	Tewkesbury	3,529	1,054	461	0	2,217	662	290	0	3,169	2,217	662	290	0	3,169
	Total		Tewkesbury						19,535	5,644	11,131	9,144	45,454	22,339	9,179	12,447	1,488	45,454

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Tewkesbury at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

Party	General Election 2005 Votes	Local Election Turnout-adjusted Votes	Votes to transfer away	Votes to transfer into	Ward Transfers needed
CON	22,339	19,535	0	2,804	Transfer in 36.6% (= 2804 / 7655) of ward's transfer pool votes
LAB	9,179	5,644	0	3,535	Transfer in 46.2% (= 3535 / 7655) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB	12,447	11,131	0	1,316	Transfer in 17.2% (= 1316 / 7655) of ward's transfer pool votes
OTH	1,488	9,144	7,656	0	Transfer away 83.7% (= 7656 / 9144) of ward's OTH votes
Total	45,453	45,454	7,655	7,655

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

New seat: Tewkesbury

District	Ward	Electorate 2005	Old Seat	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Tewkesbury	Ashchurch with Walton Cardiff	2,400	Tewkesbury	Tewkesbury	556	200	677	84	1,519
Tewkesbury	Badgeworth	1,788	Tewkesbury	Tewkesbury	757	0	374	0	1,131
Tewkesbury	Brockworth	4,972	Tewkesbury	Tewkesbury	1,026	1,651	219	247	3,145
Tewkesbury	Churchdown Brookfield	3,364	Tewkesbury	Tewkesbury	1,000	0	1,128	0	2,128
Tewkesbury	Churchdown St John's	5,191	Tewkesbury	Tewkesbury	1,106	716	1,462	0	3,284
Tewkesbury	Cleeve Grange	1,597	Tewkesbury	Tewkesbury	319	63	628	0	1,010
Tewkesbury	Cleeve Hill	2,999	Tewkesbury	Tewkesbury	1,346	0	552	0	1,898
Tewkesbury	Cleeve St Michael's	2,999	Tewkesbury	Tewkesbury	1,282	50	542	21	1,897
Tewkesbury	Cleeve West	3,349	Tewkesbury	Tewkesbury	589	88	1,442	0	2,119
Tewkesbury	Coombe Hill	3,654	Tewkesbury	Tewkesbury	1,689	136	428	57	2,312
Tewkesbury	Hucclecote	1,247	Tewkesbury	Tewkesbury	129	180	480	0	789
Tewkesbury	Innsworth with Down Hatherley	1,797	Tewkesbury	Tewkesbury	590	0	547	0	1,137
Tewkesbury	Isbourne	1,649	Tewkesbury	Tewkesbury	532	284	105	119	1,043
City Of Gloucester	Longlevens	7,223	Gloucester	Tewkesbury	1,782	1,610	1,118	42	4,555
Tewkesbury	Northway	3,737	Tewkesbury	Tewkesbury	924	1,335	48	55	2,364
Tewkesbury	Oxenton Hill	1,258	Tewkesbury	Tewkesbury	705	0	91	0	796
Cheltenham	Prestbury [1]	20	Cheltenham	Tewkesbury	2	1	1	7	12
Cheltenham	Prestbury [2]	4,544	Tewkesbury	Tewkesbury	1,333	795	470	274	2,874
Tewkesbury	Shurdington	1,554	Tewkesbury	Tewkesbury	712	271	0	0	983
Cheltenham	Swindon Village [1]	1,911	Cheltenham	Tewkesbury	155	72	456	488	1,173
Cheltenham	Swindon Village [2]	2,553	Tewkesbury	Tewkesbury	451	346	708	109	1,615
Tewkesbury	Tewkesbury Newtown	1,569	Tewkesbury	Tewkesbury	452	301	112	126	993
Tewkesbury	Tewkesbury Prior's Park	2,968	Tewkesbury	Tewkesbury	838	838	144	56	1,878
Tewkesbury	Tewkesbury Town with Mitton	3,373	Tewkesbury	Tewkesbury	914	558	425	235	2,134
Tewkesbury	Twyning	1,419	Tewkesbury	Tewkesbury	642	184	33	37	898
Tewkesbury	Winchcombe	5,010	Tewkesbury	Tewkesbury	2,217	662	290	0	3,169
	Total			Tewkesbury	22,054	10,347	12,488	1,964	46,856

And these are the implied results for 2005 for the new seat of Tewkesbury.