Thanet North: New Boundaries Calculation

Due to changes in ward boundaries, some new wards are divided among several old constituencies (though never between two new constituencies). Such wards are shown divided into several parts, called [1], [2], and so on.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election from 2003, 2004 or 2006. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed. Where zero votes are shown, the ward is not needed because the entire old seat is unsplit.

Calculation method: There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% of its votes from each ward. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done on a ward-by-ward basis using these common percentages.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

The old seat(s) needed are:

• Thanet South
• Canterbury
• Thanet North

Old seat: Thanet South

					Actual Results				Turnout-adjusted Results					Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2005	Old Seat	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Dover	Little Stour and Ashstone [2]	4,808	Thanet South	Thanet South	2,373	543	1,856	709	1,349	309	1,055	403	3,116	1,186	382	1,139	407	3,116
Dover	Middle Deal and Sholden [2]	878	Thanet South	Dover	2,005	2,319	822	0	222	256	91	0	569	195	268	104	0	569
Dover	Sandwich	5,421	Thanet South	Thanet South	2,797	786	670	242	2,186	614	524	189	3,513	1,922	732	660	196	3,513
Thanet	Beacon Road	3,268	Thanet South	Thanet South	802	1,038	169	0	845	1,094	178	0	2,117	743	1,139	230	2	2,117
Thanet	Bradstowe	3,323	Thanet South	Thanet South	1,118	434	1,104	109	871	338	860	85	2,154	766	385	914	87	2,154
Thanet	Central Harbour	5,556	Thanet South	Thanet South	1,446	1,925	0	1,378	1,096	1,459	0	1,045	3,600	964	1,518	68	1,048	3,600
Thanet	Cliffsend and Pegwell	3,715	Thanet South	Thanet South	1,733	842	0	0	1,620	787	0	0	2,407	1,424	875	101	5	2,407
Thanet	Eastcliff	5,324	Thanet South	Thanet South	1,160	1,918	0	390	1,154	1,908	0	388	3,450	1,015	1,970	72	391	3,450
Thanet	Kingsgate	1,680	Thanet South	Thanet South	449	132	0	0	841	247	0	0	1,088	739	292	52	2	1,088
Thanet	Nethercourt	3,390	Thanet South	Thanet South	1,046	1,054	0	0	1,094	1,103	0	0	2,197	962	1,162	68	3	2,197
Thanet	Newington	3,485	Thanet South	Thanet South	284	1,030	0	235	414	1,502	0	343	2,259	364	1,524	25	344	2,259
Thanet	Northwood	4,938	Thanet South	Thanet South	958	2,370	0	0	921	2,279	0	0	3,200	810	2,329	57	3	3,200
Thanet	Sir Moses Montefiore	3,714	Thanet South	Thanet South	829	1,087	387	0	866	1,136	404	0	2,406	761	1,183	458	2	2,406
Thanet	St Peters	5,515	Thanet South	Thanet South	2,616	1,792	410	0	1,941	1,329	304	0	3,574	1,707	1,434	425	6	3,574
Thanet	Thanet Villages [2]	3,009	Thanet South	Thanet North	1,833	1,163	0	1,470	800	508	0	642	1,950	703	551	50	644	1,950
Thanet	Viking	5,616	Thanet South	Thanet South	3,000	1,222	1,334	0	1,965	800	874	0	3,639	1,728	906	997	6	3,639
	Total		Thanet South						18,185	15,669	4,290	3,095	41,239	15,996	16,658	5,429	3,154	41,239

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Thanet South at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

Party	General Election 2005 Votes	Local Election Turnout-adjusted Votes	Votes to transfer away	Votes to transfer into	Ward Transfers needed
CON	15,996	18,185	2,189	0	Transfer away 12.0% (= 2189 / 18185) of ward's CON votes
LAB	16,660	15,669	0	991	Transfer in 45.2% (= 991 / 2192) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB	5,431	4,290	0	1,141	Transfer in 52.1% (= 1141 / 2192) of ward's transfer pool votes
OTH	3,155	3,095	0	60	Transfer in 2.7% (= 60 / 2192) of ward's transfer pool votes
Total	41,242	41,239	2,192	2,192

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

Old seat: Canterbury

					Actual Results				Turnout-adjusted Results					Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2005	Old Seat	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
City Of Canterbury	Barham Downs	2,083	Canterbury	Canterbury	318	34	761	0	395	42	946	0	1,383	370	172	770	70	1,383
City Of Canterbury	Barton	5,442	Canterbury	Canterbury	2,389	505	2,825	463	1,397	295	1,652	271	3,615	1,308	551	1,344	409	3,615
City Of Canterbury	Blean Forest	4,211	Canterbury	Canterbury	1,234	298	0	322	1,862	450	0	486	2,798	1,744	526	0	527	2,798
City Of Canterbury	Chartham and Stone Street	4,059	Canterbury	Canterbury	1,452	464	731	0	1,479	473	745	0	2,697	1,385	623	606	81	2,697
City Of Canterbury	Chestfield and Swalecliffe	6,518	Canterbury	Canterbury	4,575	820	1,042	0	3,077	552	701	0	4,330	2,883	762	570	113	4,330
City Of Canterbury	Gorrell	4,053	Canterbury	Canterbury	1,466	1,559	321	59	1,159	1,233	254	47	2,693	1,085	1,311	206	89	2,693
City Of Canterbury	Harbledown	1,929	Canterbury	Canterbury	264	104	517	0	382	151	749	0	1,282	357	257	609	57	1,282
City Of Canterbury	Harbour	3,805	Canterbury	Canterbury	940	1,379	310	161	852	1,249	281	146	2,528	798	1,317	228	183	2,528
City Of Canterbury	Little Stour	1,989	Canterbury	Canterbury	454	119	213	0	763	200	358	0	1,321	714	274	291	40	1,321
City Of Canterbury	Marshside	1,951	Canterbury	Thanet North	321	348	0	0	622	674	0	0	1,296	582	699	0	13	1,296
City Of Canterbury	North Nailbourne	2,000	Canterbury	Canterbury	574	0	447	0	747	0	582	0	1,329	699	100	473	54	1,329
City Of Canterbury	Northgate	3,956	Canterbury	Canterbury	912	1,141	228	0	1,051	1,314	263	0	2,628	984	1,388	214	40	2,628
City Of Canterbury	Seasalter	5,633	Canterbury	Canterbury	3,636	2,185	308	0	2,220	1,334	188	0	3,742	2,080	1,447	153	61	3,742
City Of Canterbury	St Stephens	5,290	Canterbury	Canterbury	2,543	1,089	1,578	202	1,651	707	1,025	131	3,514	1,546	898	834	234	3,514
City Of Canterbury	Sturry North	2,027	Canterbury	Canterbury	426	309	0	0	780	566	0	0	1,346	730	597	0	17	1,346
City Of Canterbury	Sturry South	2,212	Canterbury	Canterbury	550	92	86	0	1,110	186	174	0	1,470	1,040	252	141	35	1,470
City Of Canterbury	Tankerton	3,572	Canterbury	Canterbury	1,673	198	1,042	68	1,332	158	829	54	2,373	1,248	312	674	137	2,373
City Of Canterbury	Westgate	5,281	Canterbury	Canterbury	1,589	1,728	2,330	337	931	1,013	1,366	198	3,508	872	1,216	1,112	307	3,508
City Of Canterbury	Wincheap	5,631	Canterbury	Canterbury	1,086	950	3,367	213	723	633	2,242	142	3,740	677	933	1,825	303	3,740
	Total		Canterbury						22,533	11,230	12,355	1,475	47,593	21,113	13,645	10,058	2,775	47,593

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Canterbury at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

Party	General Election 2005 Votes	Local Election Turnout-adjusted Votes	Votes to transfer away	Votes to transfer into	Ward Transfers needed
CON	21,113	22,533	1,420	0	Transfer away 6.3% (= 1420 / 22533) of ward's CON votes
LAB	13,642	11,230	0	2,412	Transfer in 65.0% (= 2412 / 3710) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB	10,059	12,355	2,296	0	Transfer away 18.6% (= 2296 / 12355) of ward's LIB votes
OTH	2,773	1,475	0	1,298	Transfer in 35.0% (= 1298 / 3710) of ward's transfer pool votes
Total	47,587	47,593	3,710	3,710

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

Old seat: Thanet North

					Actual Results				Turnout-adjusted Results					Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2005	Old Seat	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
City Of Canterbury	Greenhill and Eddington	4,029	Thanet North	Thanet North	412	689	1,356	73	395	661	1,301	70	2,427	405	689	1,287	44	2,427
City Of Canterbury	Herne and Broomfield	5,833	Thanet North	Thanet North	1,827	608	1,903	977	1,208	402	1,258	646	3,514	1,272	581	1,245	414	3,514
City Of Canterbury	Heron	5,920	Thanet North	Thanet North	1,590	967	3,027	0	1,016	618	1,934	0	3,568	1,021	632	1,914	0	3,568
City Of Canterbury	Reculver	6,647	Thanet North	Thanet North	3,655	587	2,683	0	2,114	340	1,552	0	4,006	2,118	351	1,536	0	4,006
City Of Canterbury	West Bay	4,688	Thanet North	Thanet North	1,708	991	320	0	1,598	927	299	0	2,824	1,598	929	295	0	2,824
Thanet	Birchington North	3,238	Thanet North	Thanet North	1,714	374	0	858	1,135	248	0	568	1,951	1,188	397	0	364	1,951
Thanet	Birchington South	5,159	Thanet North	Thanet North	3,053	861	0	818	2,006	566	0	537	3,109	2,056	707	0	344	3,109
Thanet	Cliftonville East	5,089	Thanet North	Thanet South	4,300	1,511	0	0	2,269	797	0	0	3,066	2,269	797	0	0	3,066
Thanet	Cliftonville West	5,258	Thanet North	Thanet South	1,467	1,647	0	97	1,447	1,625	0	96	3,168	1,456	1,650	0	61	3,168
Thanet	Dane Valley	5,473	Thanet North	Thanet North	1,065	1,576	0	0	1,330	1,968	0	0	3,298	1,330	1,968	0	0	3,298
Thanet	Garlinge	3,687	Thanet North	Thanet North	1,285	949	0	0	1,278	944	0	0	2,222	1,278	944	0	0	2,222
Thanet	Margate Central	3,516	Thanet North	Thanet North	653	743	0	108	920	1,047	0	152	2,119	934	1,087	0	97	2,119
Thanet	Salmestone	3,798	Thanet North	Thanet North	771	807	0	0	1,118	1,170	0	0	2,288	1,118	1,170	0	0	2,288
Thanet	Thanet Villages [1]	1,807	Thanet North	Thanet North	1,833	1,163	0	1,470	447	284	0	358	1,089	480	378	0	229	1,089
Thanet	Westbrook	3,233	Thanet North	Thanet North	1,206	620	0	0	1,287	661	0	0	1,948	1,287	661	0	0	1,948
Thanet	Westgate-on-Sea	5,202	Thanet North	Thanet North	2,542	1,452	0	280	1,864	1,065	0	205	3,134	1,883	1,119	0	131	3,134
	Total		Thanet North						21,432	13,323	6,344	2,632	43,731	21,698	14,064	6,279	1,688	43,731

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the old seat of Thanet North at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole old seat.

Party	General Election 2005 Votes	Local Election Turnout-adjusted Votes	Votes to transfer away	Votes to transfer into	Ward Transfers needed
CON	21,699	21,432	0	267	Transfer in 26.5% (= 267 / 1009) of ward's transfer pool votes
LAB	14,065	13,323	0	742	Transfer in 73.5% (= 742 / 1009) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB	6,279	6,344	65	0	Transfer away 1.0% (= 65 / 6344) of ward's LIB votes
OTH	1,689	2,632	943	0	Transfer away 35.8% (= 943 / 2632) of ward's OTH votes
Total	43,732	43,731	1,009	1,009

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the old seat.

New seat: Thanet North

District	Ward	Electorate 2005	Old Seat	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Thanet	Birchington North	3,238	Thanet North	Thanet North	1,188	397	0	364	1,951
Thanet	Birchington South	5,159	Thanet North	Thanet North	2,056	707	0	344	3,109
Thanet	Dane Valley	5,473	Thanet North	Thanet North	1,330	1,968	0	0	3,298
Thanet	Garlinge	3,687	Thanet North	Thanet North	1,278	944	0	0	2,222
City Of Canterbury	Greenhill and Eddington	4,029	Thanet North	Thanet North	405	689	1,287	44	2,427
City Of Canterbury	Herne and Broomfield	5,833	Thanet North	Thanet North	1,272	581	1,245	414	3,514
City Of Canterbury	Heron	5,920	Thanet North	Thanet North	1,021	632	1,914	0	3,568
Thanet	Margate Central	3,516	Thanet North	Thanet North	934	1,087	0	97	2,119
City Of Canterbury	Marshside	1,951	Canterbury	Thanet North	582	699	0	13	1,296
City Of Canterbury	Reculver	6,647	Thanet North	Thanet North	2,118	351	1,536	0	4,006
Thanet	Salmestone	3,798	Thanet North	Thanet North	1,118	1,170	0	0	2,288
Thanet	Thanet Villages [1]	1,807	Thanet North	Thanet North	480	378	0	229	1,089
Thanet	Thanet Villages [2]	3,009	Thanet South	Thanet North	703	551	50	644	1,950
City Of Canterbury	West Bay	4,688	Thanet North	Thanet North	1,598	929	295	0	2,824
Thanet	Westbrook	3,233	Thanet North	Thanet North	1,287	661	0	0	1,948
Thanet	Westgate-on-Sea	5,202	Thanet North	Thanet North	1,883	1,119	0	131	3,134
	Total			Thanet North	19,260	12,867	6,329	2,285	40,743

And these are the implied results for 2005 for the new seat of Thanet North.