Abingdon and Oxford North: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Abingdon and Oxford North: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Unknown (changed seat)  (CON)
County/Area: Oxfordshire (South East)
Electorate: 72,654
Turnout: 80.3%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON26,38045.2%
LIB24,06941.3%
LAB6,85511.8%
UKIP9511.6%
Green560.1%
OTH60.0%
CON Majority2,3114.0%

See overview of other seats in South East.

Abingdon and Oxford North : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Abingdon and Oxford North constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position3° Right4° Right
National Position8° Int3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %40%52%52%
British Identity27%29%29%
Good Health43%49%48%
UK Born94%88%88%
Good Education32%43%39%
Good Job42%56%51%
High SEC40%57%51%
Average Age48.649.248.5
ABC1 Class40%60%53%

Abingdon and Oxford North ranks #513 for "Leave", #267 for "Right" and #454 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Abingdon and Oxford North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Abingdon and Oxford North been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Abingdon and Oxford North

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Henley

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Henley, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: HenleyTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CherwellKirtlington2,344Abingdon and Oxford North964539108147210061,785
CherwellOtmoor1,929Oxfordshire East1,1891281206200061,469
South OxfordshireBenson and Crowmarsh6,415Oxfordshire East2,8697789886116300264,885
South OxfordshireBerinsfield3,156Oxfordshire East1,193711282671430072,403
South OxfordshireChalgrove2,655Oxfordshire East98830762257400072,021
South OxfordshireChinnor5,817Oxfordshire East3,004602665796600144,430
South OxfordshireForest Hill and Holton2,798Oxfordshire East1,0014945763480092,131
South OxfordshireGarsington and Horspath2,731Oxfordshire East1,10060124842820062,079
South OxfordshireGoring2,839Oxfordshire East1,3153633915860032,163
South OxfordshireHaseley Brook3,088Oxfordshire East1,51740632145560062,351
South OxfordshireHenley-on-Thames8,953Oxfordshire East3,8281,619723220234001956,819
South OxfordshireKidmore End and Whitchurch2,804Oxfordshire East1,309414236914400242,136
South OxfordshireSandford and the Wittenhams2,289Oxfordshire East88544030921030041,743
South OxfordshireSonning Common5,641Oxfordshire East2,8827095502012000144,295
South OxfordshireThame8,867Oxfordshire East3,6531,4761,17622718800326,752
South OxfordshireWatlington3,051Oxfordshire East1,502446207271350052,322
South OxfordshireWheatley3,018Oxfordshire East1,0007194271013800122,297
South OxfordshireWoodcote and Rotherfield6,592Oxfordshire East3,5517055363717500165,020
 Total74,987 33,75011,4578,4851,1551,8620039257,101

The full details of these calculations are given on the Henley seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Oxford West and Abingdon

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Oxford West and Abingdon, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Oxford West and AbingdonTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CherwellKidlington North4,085Abingdon and Oxford North1,4003021,28011100003,093
CherwellKidlington South6,178Abingdon and Oxford North2,2316141,63619500004,676
CherwellYarnton, Gosford and Water Eaton3,496Abingdon and Oxford North1,5442328403000002,646
OxfordJericho and Osney5,016Oxford9481,3561,492100003,797
OxfordNorth4,404Oxford9547321,648000003,334
OxfordSt Margaret's4,089Abingdon and Oxford North1,0335611,501200003,097
OxfordSummertown5,397Abingdon and Oxford North1,1575552,374000004,086
OxfordWolvercote4,397Abingdon and Oxford North1,2063521,771000003,329
Vale of White HorseAbingdon Abbey Northcourt4,667Abingdon and Oxford North1,6203641,5381100003,533
Vale of White HorseAbingdon Caldecott5,508Abingdon and Oxford North1,9734691,61511200004,169
Vale of White HorseAbingdon Dunmore4,599Abingdon and Oxford North1,6673191,488800003,482
Vale of White HorseAbingdon Fitzharris4,780Abingdon and Oxford North1,6953621,5283300003,618
Vale of White HorseAbingdon Peachcroft5,254Abingdon and Oxford North1,9362811,6738700003,977
Vale of White HorseBotley and Sunningwell4,428Abingdon and Oxford North1,3383371,6294700003,351
Vale of White HorseCumnor4,352Abingdon and Oxford North1,4362651,5593300003,293
Vale of White HorseKennington and Radley5,177Abingdon and Oxford North1,8772851,7134400003,919
Vale of White HorseMarcham131Abingdon and Oxford North5134510000100
Vale of White HorseThames742Wantage34019189120000560
Vale of White HorseWootton2,588Abingdon and Oxford North1,0341667372200001,959
 Total79,288 25,4407,57426,256749000060,019

The full details of these calculations are given on the Oxford West and Abingdon seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Wantage

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Wantage, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: WantageTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
South OxfordshireCholsey6,614Wantage2,7181,333479871770004,794
South OxfordshireDidcot North East8,504Wantage3,1092,226629158420006,164
South OxfordshireDidcot South8,224Wantage2,5312,436699268270005,961
South OxfordshireDidcot West3,971Wantage1,494955287126180002,880
South OxfordshireSandford and the Wittenhams838Oxfordshire East31814497047000606
South OxfordshireWallingford6,442Wantage2,4381,388414723580004,670
Vale of White HorseBlewbury and Harwell4,127Wantage1,74275242247290002,992
Vale of White HorseDrayton2,447Abingdon and Oxford North90539139960190001,774
Vale of White HorseFaringdon5,866Wantage2,214933864392030004,253
Vale of White HorseGrove North4,290Wantage1,54079866589180003,110
Vale of White HorseHendreds2,327Wantage9915221522200001,687
Vale of White HorseKingston Bagpuize2,584Wantage1,23223037110290001,872
Vale of White HorseMarcham3,351Abingdon and Oxford North1,3134586358160002,430
Vale of White HorseRidgeway2,295Wantage1,07030924511280001,663
Vale of White HorseStanford2,851Wantage1,23851426213400002,067
Vale of White HorseSteventon and the Hanneys2,386Wantage1,03339319870360001,730
Vale of White HorseSutton Courtenay2,286Wantage87549620149350001,656
Vale of White HorseThames1,911Wantage86223325421160001,386
Vale of White HorseWantage and Grove Brook5,809Wantage2,1291,06691379260004,213
Vale of White HorseWantage Charlton5,142Wantage1,972891642651580003,728
Vale of White HorseWatchfield and Shrivenham5,470Wantage2,736609408102030003,966
 Total87,735 34,46017,0779,2361,2841,54500063,602

The full details of these calculations are given on the Wantage seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Abingdon and Oxford North

The new seat of Abingdon and Oxford North is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Abingdon and Oxford North
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CherwellKidlington North3,973Oxford West and Abingdon1,4003021,28011100003,093
CherwellKidlington South6,112Oxford West and Abingdon2,2316141,63619500004,676
CherwellKirtlington2,346Henley964539108147210061,785
CherwellYarnton, Gosford and Water Eaton4,047Oxford West and Abingdon1,5442328403000002,646
OxfordSt Margaret's2,965Oxford West and Abingdon1,0335611,501200003,097
OxfordSummertown4,197Oxford West and Abingdon1,1575552,374000004,086
OxfordWolvercote4,281Oxford West and Abingdon1,2063521,771000003,329
Vale of White HorseAbingdon Abbey Northcourt4,333Oxford West and Abingdon1,6203641,5381100003,533
Vale of White HorseAbingdon Caldecott5,083Oxford West and Abingdon1,9734691,61511200004,169
Vale of White HorseAbingdon Dunmore4,545Oxford West and Abingdon1,6673191,488800003,482
Vale of White HorseAbingdon Fitzharris4,616Oxford West and Abingdon1,6953621,5283300003,618
Vale of White HorseAbingdon Peachcroft5,178Oxford West and Abingdon1,9362811,6738700003,977
Vale of White HorseBotley and Sunningwell4,240Oxford West and Abingdon1,3383371,6294700003,351
Vale of White HorseCumnor4,645Oxford West and Abingdon1,4362651,5593300003,293
Vale of White HorseDrayton2,274Wantage90539139960190001,774
Vale of White HorseKennington and Radley5,081Oxford West and Abingdon1,8772851,7134400003,919
Vale of White HorseMarcham81Oxford West and Abingdon5117260100095
Vale of White HorseMarcham2,077Wantage1,3134446549150002,435
Vale of White HorseWootton2,580Oxford West and Abingdon1,0341667372200001,959
 Total72,654 26,3806,85524,0699515600658,317

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Abingdon and Oxford North.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
Powered by TigerLib (11-Sep-2017 15:41)