Anglesey and Bangor: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Anglesey and Bangor: Overview

 Projection: LAB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Albert Owen  (LAB)
County/Area: Gwynedd (Wales)
Electorate: 71,398
Turnout: 77.9%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB23,84342.9%
Plaid16,17829.1%
CON13,87824.9%
LIB1,1192.0%
UKIP6221.1%
LAB Majority7,66513.8%

See overview of other seats in Wales.

Anglesey and Bangor : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Anglesey and Bangor constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWalesAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position6° Left10° Left
National Position4° Int3° Int1° Int
EU Leave %47%53%52%
British Identity25%26%29%
Good Health46%47%48%
UK Born97%95%88%
Good Education40%36%39%
Good Job52%46%51%
High SEC53%46%51%
Average Age51.449.648.5
ABC1 Class54%47%53%

Anglesey and Bangor ranks #435 for "Leave", #433 for "Right" and #433 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Anglesey and Bangor: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Anglesey and Bangor been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Anglesey and Bangor

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Aberconwy

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Aberconwy, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: AberconwyTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ConwyBetws-y-Coed988Gwynedd336176260016300701
ConwyBryn1,469Anglesey and Bangor1936482800175001,044
ConwyCaerhun1,599Gwynedd6843281200111001,135
ConwyCapelulo1,191Anglesey and Bangor41236922004400847
ConwyConwy3,269Conwy and Colwyn9491,1861400174002,323
ConwyCraig-y-Don2,748Conwy and Colwyn1,0536753400190001,952
ConwyCrwst1,706Gwynedd4334648700228001,212
ConwyDeganwy3,154Conwy and Colwyn1,468656540063002,241
ConwyEglwysbach1,219Gwynedd31322250032600866
ConwyGogarth3,088Conwy and Colwyn1,0619199600117002,193
ConwyGower960Gwynedd20221630026100682
ConwyLlansanffraid1,768Conwy and Colwyn697502120045001,256
ConwyMarl3,109Conwy and Colwyn90986930900121002,208
ConwyMostyn (Conwy)2,811Conwy and Colwyn870992750059001,996
ConwyPandy1,454Anglesey and Bangor2716012300138001,033
ConwyPant-yr-afon / Penmaenan2,304Anglesey and Bangor4611,088140074001,637
ConwyPenrhyn3,927Conwy and Colwyn1,698956560081002,791
ConwyPensarn2,269Conwy and Colwyn647712100252001,612
ConwyTrefriw996Gwynedd241346170010300707
ConwyTudno4,036Conwy and Colwyn1,1641,5643800102002,868
ConwyUwch Conwy1,185Gwynedd272212150034300842
 Total45,250 14,33413,701941003,1700032,146

The full details of these calculations are given on the Aberconwy seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Arfon

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Arfon, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: ArfonTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
GwyneddArllechwedd948Anglesey and Bangor9413850040900646
GwyneddBethel972Gwynedd5133310027900664
GwyneddBontnewydd785Gwynedd10117010026300535
GwyneddCadnant1,407Gwynedd9143200043600959
GwyneddCwm-y-Glo675Gwynedd47290120011100460
GwyneddDeiniol1,310Anglesey and Bangor132417920025200893
GwyneddDeiniolen1,316Gwynedd155375220034500897
GwyneddDewi1,293Anglesey and Bangor132361240036500882
GwyneddGarth681Anglesey and Bangor11719590014300464
GwyneddGerlan1,626Anglesey and Bangor120421700560001,108
GwyneddGlyder1,186Anglesey and Bangor1472271100032600810
GwyneddGroeslon1,178Gwynedd21434430024300804
GwyneddHendre1,017Anglesey and Bangor72321260027400693
GwyneddHirael1,137Anglesey and Bangor159481130012300776
GwyneddLlanberis1,392Gwynedd268440140022700949
GwyneddLlanllyfni863Gwynedd8921010028900589
GwyneddLlanrug1,314Gwynedd9622110057800896
GwyneddLlanwnda1,381Gwynedd18040600035600942
GwyneddMarchog1,757Anglesey and Bangor241719000237001,197
GwyneddMenai (Bangor)2,812Anglesey and Bangor41474021300551001,918
GwyneddMenai (Caernarfon)1,500Gwynedd1653601600482001,023
GwyneddOgwen1,609Anglesey and Bangor84284200727001,097
GwyneddPeblig (Caernarfon)1,630Gwynedd138505000467001,110
GwyneddPenisarwaun1,168Gwynedd79190190050700795
GwyneddPentir1,680Anglesey and Bangor2314302100464001,146
GwyneddPenygroes1,227Gwynedd14626250042300836
GwyneddSeiont2,035Gwynedd293690000405001,388
GwyneddTalysarn1,283Gwynedd18643500025300874
GwyneddTregarth and Mynydd Llandygai1,510Anglesey and Bangor894812800431001,029
GwyneddWaunfawr1,130Gwynedd15926800034400771
GwyneddY Felinheli1,545Anglesey and Bangor125278300647001,053
 Total41,367 4,61511,4246480011,5170028,204

The full details of these calculations are given on the Arfon seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Ynys Mon

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Ynys Mon, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Ynys MonTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Isle of AngleseyAethwy5,246Anglesey and Bangor9411,3192092701,242003,738
Isle of AngleseyBro Aberffraw2,864Anglesey and Bangor5558486200612002,041
Isle of AngleseyBro Rhosyr3,562Anglesey and Bangor7651,0634130693002,538
Isle of AngleseyCaergybi5,741Anglesey and Bangor9162,45201480574004,090
Isle of AngleseyCanolbarth Môn6,563Anglesey and Bangor9161,566104902,135004,676
Isle of AngleseyLlifôn4,522Anglesey and Bangor1,3441,32514420496003,221
Isle of AngleseyLligwy4,641Anglesey and Bangor1,1081,44035450679003,307
Isle of AngleseySeiriol4,569Anglesey and Bangor8681,200872501,076003,256
Isle of AngleseyTalybolion4,613Anglesey and Bangor8421,11597801,243003,287
Isle of AngleseyTwrcelyn5,597Anglesey and Bangor1,0891,829105830880003,986
Isle of AngleseyYnys Gybi4,529Anglesey and Bangor1,0401,4870920608003,227
 Total52,447 10,38415,644479622010,2380037,367

The full details of these calculations are given on the Ynys Mon seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Anglesey and Bangor

The new seat of Anglesey and Bangor is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Anglesey and Bangor
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ConwyBryn1,349Aberconwy1936482800175001,044
ConwyCapelulo1,179Aberconwy41236922004400847
ConwyPandy1,433Aberconwy2716012300138001,033
ConwyPant-yr-afon / Penmaenan2,119Aberconwy4611,088140074001,637
GwyneddArllechwedd971Arfon9413850040900646
GwyneddDeiniol496Arfon132417920025200893
GwyneddDewi1,098Arfon132361240036500882
GwyneddGarth420Arfon11719590014300464
GwyneddGerlan1,559Arfon120421700560001,108
GwyneddGlyder1,139Arfon1472271100032600810
GwyneddHendre835Arfon72321260027400693
GwyneddHirael881Arfon159481130012300776
GwyneddMarchog1,446Arfon241719000237001,197
GwyneddMenai (Bangor)839Arfon41474021300551001,918
GwyneddOgwen1,556Arfon84284200727001,097
GwyneddPentir1,636Arfon2314302100464001,146
GwyneddTregarth and Mynydd Llandygai1,531Arfon894812800431001,029
GwyneddY Felinheli1,624Arfon125278300647001,053
Isle of AngleseyAethwy4,930Ynys Mon9411,3192092701,242003,738
Isle of AngleseyBro Aberffraw2,691Ynys Mon5558486200612002,041
Isle of AngleseyBro Rhosyr3,347Ynys Mon7651,0634130693002,538
Isle of AngleseyCaergybi5,395Ynys Mon9162,45201480574004,090
Isle of AngleseyCanolbarth Môn6,168Ynys Mon9161,566104902,135004,676
Isle of AngleseyLlifôn4,250Ynys Mon1,3441,32514420496003,221
Isle of AngleseyLligwy4,361Ynys Mon1,1081,44035450679003,307
Isle of AngleseySeiriol4,294Ynys Mon8681,200872501,076003,256
Isle of AngleseyTalybolion4,335Ynys Mon8421,11597801,243003,287
Isle of AngleseyTwrcelyn5,260Ynys Mon1,0891,829105830880003,986
Isle of AngleseyYnys Gybi4,256Ynys Mon1,0401,4870920608003,227
 Total71,398 13,87823,8431,119622016,1780055,640

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Anglesey and Bangor.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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