Antrim South: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Antrim South: Overview

 Projection: DUP seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Jeffrey Donaldson  (DUP)
County/Area: Down (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 70,770
Turnout: 65.8%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
DUP23,25449.9%
UUP9,55020.5%
SF5,57612.0%
MIN3,9588.5%
SDLP3,8578.3%
OTH3570.8%
Green140.0%
DUP Majority13,70429.4%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Antrim South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Antrim South been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Antrim South

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Antrim South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Antrim South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Antrim SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAldergrove2,983Antrim South584176585004568501,886
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAntrim Centre2,543Antrim South495876230026413801,607
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyclare East2,875Antrim West68508050011321601,819
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyclare West2,386Antrim West5680668009417901,509
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyduff1,425Antrim West341037500631210900
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyhenry971Antrim West1723221500156390614
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallynure2,304Antrim West5490645009017301,457
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyrobert2,331Antrim West5550654009217501,476
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBurnthill1,964Antrim West34665436003177901,243
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney1,739Antrim West30758385002807001,100
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill251Antrim East283860025180160
Antrim and NewtownabbeyClady2,238Antrim South437132440003436301,415
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCranfield2,239Antrim West338141494004043901,416
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCrumlin2,722Antrim South534161534004177701,723
Antrim and NewtownabbeyDoagh2,295Antrim West5470642009017201,451
Antrim and NewtownabbeyFairview2,122Antrim West5080559009418001,341
Antrim and NewtownabbeyFountain Hill2,129Antrim South415725230022211501,347
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGreystone2,156Antrim South420735290022411701,363
Antrim and NewtownabbeyHightown738Antrim South1302416300119300466
Antrim and NewtownabbeyJordanstown170Antrim East40044008150107
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMallusk3,217Antrim South630190631004929202,035
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMossley2,533Antrim West60706670011321501,602
Antrim and NewtownabbeyParkgate2,098Antrim West316132464003793601,327
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRandalstown2,512Antrim West379158555004534401,589
Antrim and NewtownabbeyShilvodan2,345Antrim West354147518004244101,484
Antrim and NewtownabbeySpringfarm3,388Antrim South6601168320035318402,145
Antrim and NewtownabbeySteeple2,486Antrim South484866100025813501,573
Antrim and NewtownabbeyStiles2,634Antrim South513906470027414301,667
Antrim and NewtownabbeyTemplepatrick2,142Antrim South419126421003276101,354
Antrim and NewtownabbeyToome2,443Antrim West368154540004414301,546
Lisburn and CastlereaghGlenavy2,453Antrim South36188772002626901,552
Lisburn and CastlereaghStonyford1,415Antrim South2095144400151400895
 Total68,247 13,2992,36216,506007,7983,204043,169

The full details of these calculations are given on the Antrim South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Belfast North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Belfast North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Belfast NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAbbey1,014Antrim East09447010162487683
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyhenry995Antrim West029349011250264669
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBurnthill365Antrim West0111280491101245
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney200Antrim West0670025051134
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill1,572Antrim East01469201625174111,058
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCollinbridge1,981Belfast North West0596940234985381,335
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGlebe2,092Antrim East0627330245265681,409
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGlengormley2,413Antrim East0728450286076491,625
Antrim and NewtownabbeyHightown1,254Antrim South037439014315335843
Antrim and NewtownabbeyO'Neill2,087Antrim East01991802133599141,406
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRathcoole2,151Antrim East019948021344102151,449
Antrim and NewtownabbeyValley2,171Belfast North West020957022347102151,463
Antrim and NewtownabbeyWhitehouse1,973Antrim East01886902031693141,330
BelfastArdoyne3,611Belfast North West0958120271,350128192,431
BelfastBallysillan3,327Belfast North West0877490251,244118172,240
BelfastBellevue3,425Belfast North West01701,052035921111162,305
BelfastCavehill2,933Belfast North West014590103078995141,974
BelfastChichester Park3,643Belfast North West01811,119037980118172,452
BelfastCliftonville3,629Belfast North West0958160271,357129192,443
BelfastDuncairn4,379Belfast North West02171,3440451,177142212,946
BelfastForth River738Belfast North West01125007187365496
BelfastFortwilliam3,155Belfast North West0156969032848102152,122
BelfastInnisfayle3,459Belfast North West01711,063035931112162,328
BelfastLegoniel3,785Belfast North West0998510291,415134202,548
BelfastNew Lodge3,283Belfast North West0867390251,228116172,211
BelfastShankill1,870Belfast North West02863501847591131,260
BelfastWater Works3,783Belfast North West0998510281,415134202,547
BelfastWoodvale2,960Belfast North West0431,005028751144211,992
 Total68,248 02,05821,245064419,1602,47536245,944

The full details of these calculations are given on the Belfast North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Lagan Valley

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Lagan Valley, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Lagan ValleyTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDonaghcloney75Down West133260025150
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDromore3,215Down West5311061,0910050192261,996
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGransha2,493Down West412828460038149201,547
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonQuilly2,989Down West495981,0130046178241,854
BelfastBelvoir265Belfast East1442640021193163
BelfastDunmurry908Belfast South West209311900290375564
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallinderry2,566Antrim South2471918850016097131,593
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacash2,231Antrim South165115935000149201,384
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacbrennan2,064Down West21126843000178241,282
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacoss3,065Antrim South2261581,284000205281,901
Lisburn and CastlereaghBlaris2,177Down West31586760000168231,352
Lisburn and CastlereaghDerryaghy2,844Antrim South2321631,01500100223311,764
Lisburn and CastlereaghDromara2,386Down West24430973000205281,480
Lisburn and CastlereaghDrumbo2,077Down West21326848000178241,289
Lisburn and CastlereaghHarmony Hill2,205Antrim South1811277860077173241,368
Lisburn and CastlereaghHilden2,634Antrim South2151529400092207281,634
Lisburn and CastlereaghHillhall2,553Down West261321,041000220301,584
Lisburn and CastlereaghHillsborough2,234Down West32289779000172241,386
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockmore2,735Antrim South2031411,146000183251,698
Lisburn and CastlereaghLagan2,172Down West31486758000168231,349
Lisburn and CastlereaghLagan Valley2,436Antrim South1801251,021000163221,511
Lisburn and CastlereaghLambeg2,416Antrim South1981398630085190261,501
Lisburn and CastlereaghLisnagarvey2,219Antrim South165114929000149201,377
Lisburn and CastlereaghMaghaberry2,914Antrim South2792171,00500183110151,809
Lisburn and CastlereaghMagheralave2,275Antrim South1851318130081178241,412
Lisburn and CastlereaghMaze2,064Down West29981721000160221,283
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoira2,679Down West387106935000207281,663
Lisburn and CastlereaghOld Warren2,865Antrim South2121481,202000192261,780
Lisburn and CastlereaghRavernet2,103Down West21527858000181251,306
Lisburn and CastlereaghStonyford344Antrim South33261180021132213
Lisburn and CastlereaghWallace Park2,847Antrim South2321631,01700100223311,766
Lisburn and CastlereaghWhite Mountain3,198Antrim South3062381,10200200121171,984
Newry, Mourne and DownBallyward132Down South8222700214183
 Total72,380 7,5333,38326,763001,5674,99768344,926

The full details of these calculations are given on the Lagan Valley seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Antrim South

The new seat of Antrim South is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Antrim South
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAldergrove2,496Antrim South584176585004568501,886
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAntrim Centre2,554Antrim South495876230026413801,607
Antrim and NewtownabbeyClady2,461Antrim South437132440003436301,415
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCrumlin2,430Antrim South534161534004177701,723
Antrim and NewtownabbeyFountain Hill2,067Antrim South415725230022211501,347
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGreystone1,912Antrim South420735290022411701,363
Antrim and NewtownabbeyHightown756Antrim South472221905158232476
Antrim and NewtownabbeyHightown1,319Belfast North833938309276403833
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMallusk3,181Antrim South630190631004929202,035
Antrim and NewtownabbeySpringfarm2,891Antrim South6601168320035318402,145
Antrim and NewtownabbeySteeple2,111Antrim South484866100025813501,573
Antrim and NewtownabbeyStiles2,330Antrim South513906470027414301,667
Antrim and NewtownabbeyTemplepatrick2,393Antrim South419126421003276101,354
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallinderry2,659Lagan Valley2471918850016097131,593
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacash2,261Lagan Valley165115935000149201,384
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacoss3,025Lagan Valley2261581,284000205281,901
Lisburn and CastlereaghDerryaghy2,583Lagan Valley2321631,01500100223311,764
Lisburn and CastlereaghGlenavy2,367Antrim South36188772002626901,552
Lisburn and CastlereaghHarmony Hill2,229Lagan Valley1811277860077173241,368
Lisburn and CastlereaghHilden2,418Lagan Valley2151529400092207281,634
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockmore2,487Lagan Valley2031411,146000183251,698
Lisburn and CastlereaghLagan Valley2,057Lagan Valley1801251,021000163221,511
Lisburn and CastlereaghLambeg2,262Lagan Valley1981398630085190261,501
Lisburn and CastlereaghLisnagarvey2,195Lagan Valley165114929000149201,377
Lisburn and CastlereaghMaghaberry2,667Lagan Valley2792171,00500183110151,809
Lisburn and CastlereaghMagheralave2,289Lagan Valley1851318130081178241,412
Lisburn and CastlereaghOld Warren2,367Lagan Valley2121481,202000192261,780
Lisburn and CastlereaghStonyford1,690Antrim South1956245300139432894
Lisburn and CastlereaghStonyford408Lagan Valley47151090033100214
Lisburn and CastlereaghWallace Park2,471Lagan Valley2321631,01700100223311,766
Lisburn and CastlereaghWhite Mountain3,434Lagan Valley3062381,10200200121171,984
 Total70,770 9,5503,85723,2540145,5763,95835746,566

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Antrim South.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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