Antrim West: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Antrim West: Overview

 Projection: LIB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Paul Girvan  (LIB)
County/Area: Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 72,121
Turnout: 63.2%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LIB24,12653.0%
CON8,29218.2%
NAT5,70312.5%
MIN3,9858.7%
LAB1,7203.8%
OTH1,7023.7%
Green170.0%
LIB Majority15,83434.8%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Antrim West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Antrim West been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Antrim West

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Antrim East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Antrim East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Antrim EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAbbey1,437Antrim East42315570010611819873
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyduff761Antrim West68428300207412461
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill355Antrim East1181370026295216
Antrim and NewtownabbeyJordanstown2,199Antrim East198128180057215351,335
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMonkstown2,514Antrim East226139350066245401,525
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRostulla3,107Antrim East280171,1540081303491,884
Causeway Coast and GlensLurigethan2,063Dalriada6923930600472142231,251
Causeway Coast and GlensTorr Head and Rathlin813Dalriada279412100186569493
Mid and East AntrimBallycarry and Glynn2,316Antrim East230128330090206331,404
Mid and East AntrimBoneybefore2,117Antrim East109148260070227371,283
Mid and East AntrimBurleigh Hill2,040Antrim East173107840050189311,237
Mid and East AntrimCairncastle2,297Antrim East12911864100247222361,393
Mid and East AntrimCarnlough and Glenarm2,207Antrim East12411461600237213341,338
Mid and East AntrimCastle2,546Antrim East131179940084273441,543
Mid and East AntrimCraigyhill2,833Antrim East15914579100304274441,717
Mid and East AntrimCurran and Inver2,419Antrim East240138690095215351,467
Mid and East AntrimGardenmore2,360Antrim East13212165900253228371,430
Mid and East AntrimGlenwhirry188Antrim West118720012112116
Mid and East AntrimGortalee2,307Antrim East196128860057213351,399
Mid and East AntrimGreenisland2,284Antrim East194128770056211341,384
Mid and East AntrimIslandmagee2,260Antrim East224128120089201321,370
Mid and East AntrimKilroot2,992Antrim East154201,1680099321521,814
Mid and East AntrimKilwaughter2,824Antrim East280151,01500111251411,713
Mid and East AntrimLove Lane2,286Antrim East118168920076245401,387
Mid and East AntrimSlemish244Antrim West1410930016132148
Mid and East AntrimSunnylands2,985Antrim East253151,1470074276451,810
Mid and East AntrimThe Maidens2,562Antrim East14413271600275248401,555
Mid and East AntrimVictoria2,630Antrim East135181,0260087282461,594
Mid and East AntrimWhitehead South2,485Antrim East246138920098221361,506
Mid and East AntrimWoodburn2,478Antrim East210139520061229371,502
 Total62,909 4,5271,27821,872003,5555,95196538,148

The full details of these calculations are given on the Antrim East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Antrim North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Antrim North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Antrim NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Causeway Coast and GlensBallycastle2,417Dalriada7511867200471116961,548
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney East2,222Dalriada12815662900502541,424
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney North2,332Dalriada13516365900528541,494
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney South2,156Dalriada12415160900488541,381
Causeway Coast and GlensClogh Mills2,642Dalriada15218574700597651,692
Causeway Coast and GlensDervock2,551Dalriada195631,1300001341111,633
Causeway Coast and GlensDunloy2,425Dalriada14017068600549541,554
Causeway Coast and GlensGiant's Causeway2,410Dalriada184591,0680001261051,542
Causeway Coast and GlensKinbane2,469Dalriada7612068700480118981,579
Causeway Coast and GlensLoughguile and Stranocum2,549Dalriada79124708004961221011,630
Causeway Coast and GlensRasharkin2,738Dalriada15819277400620651,755
Causeway Coast and GlensRoute2,294Dalriada13216164900519541,470
Causeway Coast and GlensTorr Head and Rathlin1,596Dalriada50784450031077641,024
Mid and East AntrimAcademy1,911Antrim West337078500761421181,224
Mid and East AntrimAhoghill2,487Antrim West14601,006001821421181,594
Mid and East AntrimArdeevin2,459Antrim West42911,01000991821511,575
Mid and East AntrimBallee and Harryville2,320Antrim West119361,0620010589741,485
Mid and East AntrimBallykeel2,266Antrim West398493100911681391,452
Mid and East AntrimBraidwater2,287Antrim West408493900921691411,465
Mid and East AntrimBroughshane2,455Antrim West126381,1240011195791,573
Mid and East AntrimCastle Demesne2,346Antrim West418696500941741451,505
Mid and East AntrimCullybackey2,021Dalriada119081800148116961,297
Mid and East AntrimFair Green2,792Antrim West481031,147001112071721,788
Mid and East AntrimGalgorm2,206Antrim West1300892001611261041,413
Mid and East AntrimGlenravel2,309Dalriada119361,0570010589741,480
Mid and East AntrimGlenwhirry1,971Antrim West10231902009076631,264
Mid and East AntrimGrange2,399Antrim West1410970001751371141,537
Mid and East AntrimKells2,386Antrim West123371,0920010892761,528
Mid and East AntrimKirkinriola2,119Dalriada10933970009682681,358
Mid and East AntrimMaine2,093Dalriada123084700153120991,342
Mid and East AntrimPark2,089Antrim West367785800841551281,338
Mid and East AntrimPortglenone2,134Dalriada1250863001561221011,367
Mid and East AntrimSlemish1,804Antrim West9328826008270581,157
 Total75,655 3,4822,57428,527007,8793,2832,72348,468

The full details of these calculations are given on the Antrim North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Antrim South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Antrim South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Antrim SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAldergrove2,983Antrim South584176585004568501,886
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAntrim Centre2,543Antrim South495876230026413801,607
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyclare East2,875Antrim West68508050011321601,819
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyclare West2,386Antrim West5680668009417901,509
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyduff1,425Antrim West341037500631210900
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyhenry971Antrim West1723221500156390614
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallynure2,304Antrim West5490645009017301,457
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyrobert2,331Antrim West5550654009217501,476
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBurnthill1,964Antrim West34665436003177901,243
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney1,739Antrim West30758385002807001,100
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill251Antrim East283860025180160
Antrim and NewtownabbeyClady2,238Antrim South437132440003436301,415
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCranfield2,239Antrim West338141494004043901,416
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCrumlin2,722Antrim South534161534004177701,723
Antrim and NewtownabbeyDoagh2,295Antrim West5470642009017201,451
Antrim and NewtownabbeyFairview2,122Antrim West5080559009418001,341
Antrim and NewtownabbeyFountain Hill2,129Antrim South415725230022211501,347
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGreystone2,156Antrim South420735290022411701,363
Antrim and NewtownabbeyHightown738Antrim South1302416300119300466
Antrim and NewtownabbeyJordanstown170Antrim East40044008150107
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMallusk3,217Antrim South630190631004929202,035
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMossley2,533Antrim West60706670011321501,602
Antrim and NewtownabbeyParkgate2,098Antrim West316132464003793601,327
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRandalstown2,512Antrim West379158555004534401,589
Antrim and NewtownabbeyShilvodan2,345Antrim West354147518004244101,484
Antrim and NewtownabbeySpringfarm3,388Antrim South6601168320035318402,145
Antrim and NewtownabbeySteeple2,486Antrim South484866100025813501,573
Antrim and NewtownabbeyStiles2,634Antrim South513906470027414301,667
Antrim and NewtownabbeyTemplepatrick2,142Antrim South419126421003276101,354
Antrim and NewtownabbeyToome2,443Antrim West368154540004414301,546
Lisburn and CastlereaghGlenavy2,453Antrim South36188772002626901,552
Lisburn and CastlereaghStonyford1,415Antrim South2095144400151400895
 Total68,247 13,2992,36216,506007,7983,204043,169

The full details of these calculations are given on the Antrim South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Belfast North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Belfast North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Belfast NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAbbey1,014Antrim East09447010162487683
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyhenry995Antrim West029349011250264669
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBurnthill365Antrim West0111280491101245
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney200Antrim West0670025051134
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill1,572Antrim East01469201625174111,058
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCollinbridge1,981Belfast North West0596940234985381,335
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGlebe2,092Antrim East0627330245265681,409
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGlengormley2,413Antrim East0728450286076491,625
Antrim and NewtownabbeyHightown1,254Antrim South037439014315335843
Antrim and NewtownabbeyO'Neill2,087Antrim East01991802133599141,406
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRathcoole2,151Antrim East019948021344102151,449
Antrim and NewtownabbeyValley2,171Belfast North West020957022347102151,463
Antrim and NewtownabbeyWhitehouse1,973Antrim East01886902031693141,330
BelfastArdoyne3,611Belfast North West0958120271,350128192,431
BelfastBallysillan3,327Belfast North West0877490251,244118172,240
BelfastBellevue3,425Belfast North West01701,052035921111162,305
BelfastCavehill2,933Belfast North West014590103078995141,974
BelfastChichester Park3,643Belfast North West01811,119037980118172,452
BelfastCliftonville3,629Belfast North West0958160271,357129192,443
BelfastDuncairn4,379Belfast North West02171,3440451,177142212,946
BelfastForth River738Belfast North West01125007187365496
BelfastFortwilliam3,155Belfast North West0156969032848102152,122
BelfastInnisfayle3,459Belfast North West01711,063035931112162,328
BelfastLegoniel3,785Belfast North West0998510291,415134202,548
BelfastNew Lodge3,283Belfast North West0867390251,228116172,211
BelfastShankill1,870Belfast North West02863501847591131,260
BelfastWater Works3,783Belfast North West0998510281,415134202,547
BelfastWoodvale2,960Belfast North West0431,005028751144211,992
 Total68,248 02,05821,245064419,1602,47536245,944

The full details of these calculations are given on the Belfast North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Antrim West

The new seat of Antrim West is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Antrim West
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyclare East2,551Antrim South68508050011321601,819
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyclare West2,618Antrim South5680668009417901,509
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyduff1,498Antrim South266342700541278885
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyduff809Antrim East14312310029684476
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyhenry1,020Antrim South843027505198322626
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyhenry1,072Belfast North883128906208332657
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallynure2,491Antrim South5490645009017301,457
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyrobert2,441Antrim South5550654009217501,476
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBurnthill2,041Antrim South29164474033437511,251
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBurnthill389Belfast North5512900165140237
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney1,867Antrim South27557407022956711,104
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney220Belfast North32748003580130
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCranfield2,274Antrim South338141494004043901,416
Antrim and NewtownabbeyDoagh2,362Antrim South5470642009017201,451
Antrim and NewtownabbeyFairview2,086Antrim South5080559009418001,341
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMossley2,474Antrim South60706670011321501,602
Antrim and NewtownabbeyParkgate2,339Antrim South316132464003793601,327
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRandalstown2,351Antrim South379158555004534401,589
Antrim and NewtownabbeyShilvodan2,429Antrim South354147518004244101,484
Antrim and NewtownabbeyToome2,513Antrim South368154540004414301,546
Mid and East AntrimAcademy2,102Antrim North337078500761421181,224
Mid and East AntrimAhoghill2,567Antrim North14601,006001821421181,594
Mid and East AntrimArdeevin2,335Antrim North42911,01000991821511,575
Mid and East AntrimBallee and Harryville2,291Antrim North119361,0620010589741,485
Mid and East AntrimBallykeel2,151Antrim North398493100911681391,452
Mid and East AntrimBraidwater2,091Antrim North408493900921691411,465
Mid and East AntrimBroughshane2,640Antrim North126381,1240011195791,573
Mid and East AntrimCastle Demesne2,023Antrim North418696500941741451,505
Mid and East AntrimFair Green2,016Antrim North481031,147001112071721,788
Mid and East AntrimGalgorm2,361Antrim North1300892001611261041,413
Mid and East AntrimGlenwhirry196Antrim East1038400986120
Mid and East AntrimGlenwhirry2,074Antrim North10336890009379591,260
Mid and East AntrimGrange2,621Antrim North1410970001751371141,537
Mid and East AntrimKells2,408Antrim North123371,0920010892761,528
Mid and East AntrimPark2,129Antrim North367785800841551281,338
Mid and East AntrimSlemish2,003Antrim North9434811008673531,151
Mid and East AntrimSlemish268Antrim East1341080012107154
 Total72,121 8,2921,72024,1260175,7033,9851,70245,545

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Antrim West.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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