Antrim West: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Antrim West: Overview

 Projection: LIB seat 

Implied MP at 2015: Unknown (changed seat)  (LIB)
County/Area: Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 72,121
Turnout: 54.1%

 Implied 2015 VotesImplied 2015 Share
LIB15,58240.0%
CON8,16920.9%
MIN6,21615.9%
NAT3,4408.8%
OTH3,0997.9%
LAB2,0945.4%
UKIP3991.0%
LIB Majority7,41319.0%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Antrim West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2015 had the new boundaries for Antrim West been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2015. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Antrim West

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Antrim East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Antrim East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Antrim EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2015
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAbbey1,435Antrim East5837390500839948765
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyduff760Antrim West951016236086331405
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill354Antrim East141096120212412189
Antrim and NewtownabbeyJordanstown2,196Antrim East27630468105023181881,171
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMonkstown2,510Antrim East315355351200262071011,339
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRostulla3,102Antrim East391436621480322551251,656
Causeway Coast and GlensLurigethan2,060Dalriada96223138620400120581,097
Causeway Coast and GlensTorr Head and Rathlin812Dalriada3888552401574723432
Mid and East AntrimBallycarry and Glynn2,312Antrim East32030469105051174851,234
Mid and East AntrimBoneybefore2,114Antrim East15229396245021192941,129
Mid and East AntrimBurleigh Hill2,037Antrim East2422746992020159781,087
Mid and East AntrimCairncastle2,293Antrim East1801243481000193187911,223
Mid and East AntrimCarnlough and Glenarm2,203Antrim East172119335960186180881,176
Mid and East AntrimCastle2,542Antrim East182344752950262301121,354
Mid and East AntrimCraigyhill2,828Antrim East22215142912302382311131,507
Mid and East AntrimCurran and Inver2,415Antrim East33532490110053182891,291
Mid and East AntrimGardenmore2,356Antrim East1851273581030199193941,259
Mid and East AntrimGlenwhirry188Antrim West1485150994100
Mid and East AntrimGortalee2,303Antrim East27330531104022180881,228
Mid and East AntrimGreenisland2,280Antrim East27030525103022179871,216
Mid and East AntrimIslandmagee2,256Antrim East31230457102050169831,203
Mid and East AntrimKilroot2,987Antrim East214415593460302711321,593
Mid and East AntrimKilwaughter2,820Antrim East391375721280612121041,505
Mid and East AntrimLove Lane2,282Antrim East165314272640232071011,218
Mid and East AntrimSlemish244Antrim West1810667012115129
Mid and East AntrimSunnylands2,980Antrim East353396881350292331141,591
Mid and East AntrimThe Maidens2,558Antrim East20113738911102152091021,364
Mid and East AntrimVictoria2,626Antrim East188364913040272381161,400
Mid and East AntrimWhitehead South2,481Antrim East34333502113054187911,323
Mid and East AntrimWoodburn2,474Antrim East29332570112024193941,318
 Total62,808 6,3081,64312,1033,66002,3155,0222,45133,502

The full details of these calculations are given on the Antrim East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Antrim North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Antrim North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Antrim NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2015
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Causeway Coast and GlensBallycastle2,424Dalriada109134411470307232981,338
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney East2,228Dalriada186177449770328941,230
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney North2,339Dalriada1961864728003451041,293
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney South2,162Dalriada181172436740318941,194
Causeway Coast and GlensClogh Mills2,650Dalriada2212115349103901151,463
Causeway Coast and GlensDervock2,558Dalriada2837160869002681131,412
Causeway Coast and GlensDunloy2,432Dalriada2031934918403591041,344
Causeway Coast and GlensGiant's Causeway2,417Dalriada2686857665002531071,337
Causeway Coast and GlensKinbane2,476Dalriada1111374214803142371001,368
Causeway Coast and GlensLoughguile and Stranocum2,556Dalriada1151414345003242441031,411
Causeway Coast and GlensRasharkin2,746Dalriada2292185549504051251,518
Causeway Coast and GlensRoute2,301Dalriada1931834647903391041,272
Causeway Coast and GlensTorr Head and Rathlin1,601Dalriada728927131020215365883
Mid and East AntrimAcademy1,916Antrim West4879455220492841201,057
Mid and East AntrimAhoghill2,494Antrim West21106192401182841201,376
Mid and East AntrimArdeevin2,466Antrim West62103586280643651541,362
Mid and East AntrimBallee and Harryville2,327Antrim West1734172721068179761,285
Mid and East AntrimBallykeel2,272Antrim West5695540260593361421,254
Mid and East AntrimBraidwater2,294Antrim West5796545260603391431,266
Mid and East AntrimBroughshane2,462Antrim West1834376922072189801,358
Mid and East AntrimCastle Demesne2,353Antrim West5998560270613481471,300
Mid and East AntrimCullybackey2,027Dalriada172050319096231981,119
Mid and East AntrimFair Green2,800Antrim West70117666320734141751,547
Mid and East AntrimGalgorm2,212Antrim West18805492101052521071,222
Mid and East AntrimGlenravel2,316Dalriada1724172221068178751,277
Mid and East AntrimGlenwhirry1,977Antrim West1473561718059152641,092
Mid and East AntrimGrange2,406Antrim West20405982301152741161,330
Mid and East AntrimKells2,393Antrim West1784274721070184781,320
Mid and East AntrimKirkinriola2,125Dalriada1593866419062163691,174
Mid and East AntrimMaine2,099Dalriada17805212001002391011,159
Mid and East AntrimPark2,095Antrim West5288498240553101311,158
Mid and East AntrimPortglenone2,140Dalriada18205312001022441031,182
Mid and East AntrimSlemish1,809Antrim West135325651605313959999
 Total75,873 5,0532,92818,1031,34005,1406,5622,77441,900

The full details of these calculations are given on the Antrim North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Antrim South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Antrim South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Antrim SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2015
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAldergrove2,947Antrim South5222233820031395621,597
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAntrim Centre2,512Antrim South446111406001451541001,362
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyclare East2,840Antrim West60905320002411571,539
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyclare West2,357Antrim West50604420002001301,278
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyduff1,408Antrim West304023600013588763
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyhenry959Antrim West15440145001094428520
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallynure2,276Antrim West48804250001931251,231
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyrobert2,303Antrim West49404310001951271,247
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBurnthill1,940Antrim West311822930022088571,051
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney1,718Antrim West27673258001957851931
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill248Antrim East2735900132013135
Antrim and NewtownabbeyClady2,211Antrim South3921672870023571461,198
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCranfield2,212Antrim West3081783440029644281,198
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCrumlin2,689Antrim South4772043480028686561,457
Antrim and NewtownabbeyDoagh2,267Antrim West48704240001921251,228
Antrim and NewtownabbeyFairview2,096Antrim West45203520002011311,136
Antrim and NewtownabbeyFountain Hill2,103Antrim South3739234000122129841,140
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGreystone2,130Antrim South3789234500123131851,154
Antrim and NewtownabbeyHightown729Antrim South1173111000833321395
Antrim and NewtownabbeyJordanstown168Antrim East36028000161090
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMallusk3,178Antrim South56424141200337102661,722
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMossley2,502Antrim West53904200002401561,355
Antrim and NewtownabbeyParkgate2,073Antrim West2881673230027841271,124
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRandalstown2,482Antrim West3462003870033249321,346
Antrim and NewtownabbeyShilvodan2,317Antrim West3221863610031046301,255
Antrim and NewtownabbeySpringfarm3,347Antrim South594146541001932051331,812
Antrim and NewtownabbeySteeple2,456Antrim South43610839600141151981,330
Antrim and NewtownabbeyStiles2,602Antrim South462114421001511601041,412
Antrim and NewtownabbeyTemplepatrick2,116Antrim South3751602750022468441,146
Antrim and NewtownabbeyToome2,414Antrim West3351953750032448311,308
Lisburn and CastlereaghGlenavy2,423Antrim South3341115670017377501,312
Lisburn and CastlereaghStonyford1,398Antrim South19365327001004529759
 Total67,421 11,9452,98910,992004,7033,5782,32436,531

The full details of these calculations are given on the Antrim South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Belfast North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Belfast North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Belfast NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2015
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAbbey1,019Antrim East01540800975728605
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyhenry999Antrim West048327001703115591
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBurnthill367Antrim West0181210062126219
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney201Antrim West01066003463119
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill1,579Antrim East023632001498843935
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCollinbridge1,990Belfast North West0956520033762311,177
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGlebe2,101Antrim East01006870035766331,243
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGlengormley2,424Antrim East01177940041176381,436
Antrim and NewtownabbeyHightown1,260Antrim South060413002144019746
Antrim and NewtownabbeyO'Neill2,096Antrim East03183700198117581,241
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRathcoole2,161Antrim East03186500204121591,280
Antrim and NewtownabbeyValley2,181Belfast North West03287200206122601,292
Antrim and NewtownabbeyWhitehouse1,982Antrim East02979300188111541,175
BelfastArdoyne3,627Belfast North West0154713001,053152752,147
BelfastBallysillan3,342Belfast North West014165800972140691,980
BelfastBellevue3,440Belfast North West027692900636132652,038
BelfastCavehill2,946Belfast North West023679500545113561,745
BelfastChichester Park3,659Belfast North West029398800677140692,167
BelfastCliftonville3,645Belfast North West0154717001,060153752,159
BelfastDuncairn4,398Belfast North West03511,18800813168832,603
BelfastForth River741Belfast North West018226001314321439
BelfastFortwilliam3,169Belfast North West025485600586122601,878
BelfastInnisfayle3,474Belfast North West027793900643133662,058
BelfastLegoniel3,802Belfast North West0161748001,105160792,253
BelfastNew Lodge3,298Belfast North West013964900959139681,954
BelfastShankill1,878Belfast North West04557300333108531,112
BelfastWater Works3,800Belfast North West0161747001,105159782,250
BelfastWoodvale2,973Belfast North West07090800527171841,760
 Total68,552 03,33919,1010013,7722,9421,44840,602

The full details of these calculations are given on the Belfast North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Antrim West

The new seat of Antrim West is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Antrim West
DistrictWardElectorate
2015
Old Seat UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyclare East2,551Antrim South60905320002411571,539
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyclare West2,618Antrim South50604420002001301,278
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyduff1,498Antrim South2596258230512977757
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyduff809Antrim East140414013036942411
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyhenry1,020Antrim South7543230001363721542
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyhenry1,072Belfast North7945242001433822569
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallynure2,491Antrim South48804250001931251,231
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyrobert2,441Antrim South49404310001951271,247
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBurnthill2,041Antrim South261843480023784531,067
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBurnthill389Belfast North50166600451610203
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney1,867Antrim South24774290002057548939
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney220Belfast North29934002496111
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCranfield2,274Antrim South3081783440029644281,198
Antrim and NewtownabbeyDoagh2,362Antrim South48704240001921251,228
Antrim and NewtownabbeyFairview2,086Antrim South45203520002011311,136
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMossley2,474Antrim South53904200002401561,355
Antrim and NewtownabbeyParkgate2,339Antrim South2881673230027841271,124
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRandalstown2,351Antrim South3462003870033249321,346
Antrim and NewtownabbeyShilvodan2,429Antrim South3221863610031046301,255
Antrim and NewtownabbeyToome2,513Antrim South3351953750032448311,308
Mid and East AntrimAcademy2,102Antrim North4879455220492841201,057
Mid and East AntrimAhoghill2,567Antrim North21106192401182841201,376
Mid and East AntrimArdeevin2,335Antrim North62103586280643651541,362
Mid and East AntrimBallee and Harryville2,291Antrim North1734172721068179761,285
Mid and East AntrimBallykeel2,151Antrim North5695540260593361421,254
Mid and East AntrimBraidwater2,091Antrim North5796545260603391431,266
Mid and East AntrimBroughshane2,640Antrim North1834376922072189801,358
Mid and East AntrimCastle Demesne2,023Antrim North5998560270613481471,300
Mid and East AntrimFair Green2,016Antrim North70117666320734141751,547
Mid and East AntrimGalgorm2,361Antrim North18805492101052521071,222
Mid and East AntrimGlenwhirry196Antrim East14458206146104
Mid and East AntrimGlenwhirry2,074Antrim North1473961021062147621,088
Mid and East AntrimGrange2,621Antrim North20405982301152741161,330
Mid and East AntrimKells2,408Antrim North1784274721070184781,320
Mid and East AntrimPark2,129Antrim North5288498240553101311,158
Mid and East AntrimSlemish2,003Antrim North135375572005713256994
Mid and East AntrimSlemish268Antrim East18574308188134
 Total72,121 8,1692,09415,58239903,4406,2163,09938,999

And these are the implied results for 2015 for the new seat of Antrim West.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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