Arundel and South Downs: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Arundel and South Downs: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Nick Herbert  (CON)
County/Area: West Sussex (South East)
Electorate: 74,331
Turnout: 79.6%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON37,44663.3%
LAB12,74721.6%
LIB5,1778.8%
Green2,3293.9%
UKIP1,4262.4%
OTH130.0%
CON Majority24,69941.8%

See overview of other seats in South East.

Arundel and South Downs : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Arundel and South Downs constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position7° Right4° Right
National Position2° Nat3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %49%52%52%
British Identity21%29%29%
Good Health41%49%48%
UK Born97%88%88%
Good Education26%43%39%
Good Job40%56%51%
High SEC37%57%51%
Average Age49.549.248.5
ABC1 Class38%60%53%

Arundel and South Downs ranks #412 for "Leave", #177 for "Right" and #312 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Arundel and South Downs: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Arundel and South Downs been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Arundel and South Downs

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Arundel and South Downs

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Arundel and South Downs, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Arundel and South DownsTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ArunAngmering and Findon7,635Arundel and South Downs3,5781,2174882171960005,696
ArunArundel and Walberton6,794Arundel and South Downs3,3851,311154132850005,067
ArunBarnham6,495Bognor Regis and Littlehampton2,6441,5011822582610004,846
ArunEast Preston842Worthing West43912618386000627
ChichesterBury1,793Arundel and South Downs97913018212350001,338
ChichesterPetworth3,939Arundel and South Downs1,977603144133820002,939
ChichesterWisborough Green2,052Arundel and South Downs1,02824614741050001,530
HorshamBramber, Upper Beeding and Woodmancote4,391Arundel and South Downs1,962756341511660003,276
HorshamChanctonbury6,606Arundel and South Downs3,710704295177440004,930
HorshamChantry8,049Arundel and South Downs4,0629634782192830006,005
HorshamCowfold, Shermanbury and West Grinstead4,575Arundel and South Downs2,56144432044450003,414
HorshamHenfield4,268Arundel and South Downs1,7341,044218421460003,184
HorshamPulborough and Coldwaltham5,107Arundel and South Downs2,2918822801811760003,810
HorshamSteyning5,169Arundel and South Downs2,1871,024381242390003,855
Mid SussexHassocks6,365Arundel and South Downs2,3841,351690742500004,749
Mid SussexHurstpierpoint and Downs6,685Arundel and South Downs2,6531,388463604220004,986
 Total80,765 37,57413,6904,7811,6662,54100060,252

The full details of these calculations are given on the Arundel and South Downs seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Chichester

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Chichester, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: ChichesterTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ChichesterBosham3,456Chichester1,6924032999320012,436
ChichesterBoxgrove1,827Chichester1,0751236610130011,288
ChichesterChichester East6,901Chichester2,1071,5761,000391410024,865
ChichesterChichester North5,482Chichester2,132827616142720033,864
ChichesterChichester South5,493Chichester1,804877666284930043,872
ChichesterChichester West3,960Chichester1,13098258328660032,792
ChichesterDonnington1,804Chichester975178863310001,273
ChichesterEasebourne2,049Chichester1,0622916017130011,444
ChichesterEast Wittering4,123Chichester1,707511125541180032,905
ChichesterFernhurst4,385Chichester1,845670335171650043,090
ChichesterFishbourne1,900Chichester6213073289750011,341
ChichesterFuntington2,212Chichester1,1302111915200021,559
ChichesterHarting1,647Chichester5365235518220081,162
ChichesterLavant1,917Chichester8092902317130031,353
ChichesterMidhurst3,989Chichester1,1411,234305724300172,812
ChichesterNorth Mundham1,844Chichester1,090146417150021,301
ChichesterPlaistow3,829Arundel and South Downs1,94436632822390012,700
ChichesterRogate1,945Chichester93915769941120001,371
ChichesterSelsey North5,187Chichester2,1368631852352320053,656
ChichesterSelsey South3,559Chichester1,75253710390270002,509
ChichesterSidlesham1,982Chichester1,1421585424160031,397
ChichesterSouthbourne6,088Chichester2,62684370767460024,291
ChichesterStedham1,724Chichester8262707211320041,215
ChichesterTangmere2,126Chichester1,1192586531240011,498
ChichesterWest Wittering3,689Chichester1,6846171048410200102,601
ChichesterWestbourne1,880Chichester1,0081977415310011,326
 Total84,998 36,03213,4156,7481,6511,993008259,921

The full details of these calculations are given on the Chichester seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Sussex Mid

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Sussex Mid, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Sussex MidTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Mid SussexAshurst Wood2,246Sussex Mid1,13333299245400111,653
Mid SussexBolney2,256Arundel and South Downs1,011318268341600121,659
Mid SussexBurgess Hill Dunstall4,145Sussex Mid1,755747418644500233,052
Mid SussexBurgess Hill Franklands3,902Sussex Mid1,683557485695800202,872
Mid SussexBurgess Hill Leylands3,832Sussex Mid1,477676530636400112,821
Mid SussexBurgess Hill Meeds3,714Sussex Mid1,182853554894000152,733
Mid SussexBurgess Hill St Andrews3,646Sussex Mid1,258756509806200182,683
Mid SussexBurgess Hill Victoria4,562Sussex Mid1,5621,047560857800253,357
Mid SussexCuckfield4,165Sussex Mid1,956639328911100233,066
Mid SussexEast Grinstead Ashplats4,457Sussex Mid2,0438081881377600293,281
Mid SussexEast Grinstead Baldwins4,195Sussex Mid1,9746362409611000303,086
Mid SussexEast Grinstead Herontye3,888Sussex Mid1,9595451655410600322,861
Mid SussexEast Grinstead Imberhorne3,469Sussex Mid1,825512117513400132,552
Mid SussexEast Grinstead Town4,101Sussex Mid1,6347753856912900273,019
Mid SussexHaywards Heath Ashenground4,398Sussex Mid1,4451,108527606600303,236
Mid SussexHaywards Heath Bentswood4,512Sussex Mid1,4081,3413571018600283,321
Mid SussexHaywards Heath Franklands3,797Sussex Mid1,641646412413600192,795
Mid SussexHaywards Heath Heath4,349Sussex Mid1,772853474335300153,200
Mid SussexHaywards Heath Lucastes4,414Sussex Mid1,886691597322700153,248
Mid SussexHigh Weald4,181Sussex Mid1,9377211735115600393,077
Mid SussexLindfield5,517Sussex Mid2,541849469716400304,060
 Total83,746 35,08215,4107,8551,2491,5710046561,632

The full details of these calculations are given on the Sussex Mid seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Arundel and South Downs

The new seat of Arundel and South Downs is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Arundel and South Downs
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ArunAngmering and Findon7,003Arundel and South Downs3,5781,2174882171960005,696
ArunArundel and Walberton6,240Arundel and South Downs3,3851,311154132850005,067
ChichesterBury1,702Arundel and South Downs97913018212350001,338
ChichesterPetworth3,609Arundel and South Downs1,977603144133820002,939
ChichesterPlaistow3,649Chichester1,94436632822390012,700
ChichesterWisborough Green1,913Arundel and South Downs1,02824614741050001,530
HorshamBramber, Upper Beeding and Woodmancote4,124Arundel and South Downs1,962756341511660003,276
HorshamChanctonbury6,506Arundel and South Downs3,710704295177440004,930
HorshamChantry7,615Arundel and South Downs4,0629634782192830006,005
HorshamCowfold, Shermanbury and West Grinstead4,166Arundel and South Downs2,56144432044450003,414
HorshamHenfield4,059Arundel and South Downs1,7341,044218421460003,184
HorshamPulborough and Coldwaltham4,993Arundel and South Downs2,2918822801811760003,810
HorshamSteyning4,786Arundel and South Downs2,1871,024381242390003,855
Mid SussexBolney2,118Sussex Mid1,011318268341600121,659
Mid SussexHassocks6,123Arundel and South Downs2,3841,351690742500004,749
Mid SussexHurstpierpoint and Downs5,725Arundel and South Downs2,6531,388463604220004,986
 Total74,331 37,44612,7475,1771,4262,329001359,138

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Arundel and South Downs.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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