New Seat Details

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Ashford been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
CON	29,922	57.2%
LAB	16,405	31.3%
LIB	2,805	5.4%
UKIP	1,927	3.7%
Green	1,266	2.4%
OTH	23	0.0%
CON Majority	13,517	25.8%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Ashford: Map

List of old seats forming part of Ashford

Old seat: Ashford

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Ashford, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Ashford				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Ashford	Aylesford Green	2,341	Ashford	641	738	61	34	22	0	0	0	1,496
Ashford	Beaver	3,817	Ashford	1,258	1,403	152	159	97	0	0	0	3,069
Ashford	Biddenden	1,977	Weald of Kent	1,023	250	35	28	38	0	0	0	1,374
Ashford	Bockhanger	1,873	Ashford	725	393	53	28	18	0	0	0	1,217
Ashford	Boughton Aluph and Eastwell	2,262	Ashford	1,122	450	124	39	28	0	0	0	1,763
Ashford	Bybrook	1,891	Ashford	720	509	51	32	20	0	0	0	1,332
Ashford	Charing	2,008	Ashford	790	246	127	60	15	0	0	0	1,238
Ashford	Downs North	1,927	Ashford	907	289	35	25	39	0	0	0	1,295
Ashford	Downs West	1,932	Ashford	945	252	45	25	40	0	0	0	1,307
Ashford	Godinton	4,641	Ashford	1,853	969	243	171	102	0	0	0	3,338
Ashford	Great Chart with Singleton North	2,533	Ashford	1,185	551	87	109	27	0	0	0	1,959
Ashford	Highfield	1,841	Ashford	860	340	69	35	52	0	0	0	1,356
Ashford	Isle of Oxney	2,105	Ashford	922	292	42	65	40	0	0	0	1,361
Ashford	Kennington	1,799	Ashford	732	234	104	60	17	0	0	0	1,147
Ashford	Little Burton Farm	2,131	Ashford	966	470	134	81	23	0	0	0	1,674
Ashford	Norman	1,840	Ashford	797	660	61	37	25	0	0	0	1,580
Ashford	North Willesborough	3,742	Ashford	1,316	885	345	64	96	0	0	0	2,706
Ashford	Park Farm North	2,445	Ashford	1,203	510	88	99	26	0	0	0	1,926
Ashford	Park Farm South	1,932	Ashford	1,051	492	50	34	17	0	0	0	1,644
Ashford	Rolvenden and Tenterden West	1,969	Weald of Kent	964	209	31	25	15	0	0	0	1,244
Ashford	Singleton South	2,267	Ashford	950	508	81	90	23	0	0	0	1,652
Ashford	South Willesborough	2,360	Ashford	972	719	102	114	73	0	0	0	1,980
Ashford	St Michaels	1,832	Weald of Kent	904	237	53	27	39	0	0	0	1,260
Ashford	Stanhope	1,900	Ashford	666	955	72	86	51	0	0	0	1,830
Ashford	Stour	3,599	Ashford	1,522	994	129	64	90	0	0	0	2,799
Ashford	Tenterden North	1,744	Weald of Kent	793	238	113	29	18	0	0	0	1,191
Ashford	Tenterden South	1,898	Weald of Kent	872	270	45	60	18	0	0	0	1,265
Ashford	Victoria	3,521	Ashford	1,263	1,331	148	162	105	0	0	0	3,009
Ashford	Washford	2,338	Ashford	1,097	603	74	46	25	0	0	0	1,845
Ashford	Weald Central	3,996	Weald of Kent	1,810	499	79	124	32	0	0	0	2,544
Ashford	Weald East	2,195	Ashford	950	238	39	26	34	0	0	0	1,287
Ashford	Weald North	1,891	Weald of Kent	899	237	38	56	35	0	0	0	1,265
Ashford	Weald South	4,177	Ashford	1,926	589	89	58	80	0	0	0	2,742
Ashford	Wye	1,803	Ashford	713	284	100	68	22	0	0	0	1,187
	Total	82,527		35,317	17,844	3,099	2,220	1,402	0	0	0	59,882

The full details of these calculations are given on the Ashford seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Folkestone and Hythe

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Folkestone and Hythe, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Folkestone and Hythe				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Ashford	Saxon Shore	4,083	Ashford	1,870	501	100	56	59	0	0	23	2,609
Shepway	Broadmead	2,747	Folkestone and Hythe	1,058	473	254	93	52	0	0	8	1,938
Shepway	Cheriton	8,180	Folkestone and Hythe	3,063	2,301	581	310	261	0	0	63	6,579
Shepway	East Folkestone	7,593	Folkestone and Hythe	2,638	2,571	349	329	173	0	0	75	6,135
Shepway	Folkestone Central	6,417	Folkestone and Hythe	2,448	1,747	596	273	292	0	0	99	5,455
Shepway	Folkestone Harbour	4,362	Folkestone and Hythe	1,571	1,495	284	193	108	0	0	57	3,708
Shepway	Hythe	8,884	Folkestone and Hythe	3,640	1,216	302	141	365	0	0	63	5,727
Shepway	Hythe Rural	4,615	Folkestone and Hythe	1,917	728	146	80	183	0	0	32	3,086
Shepway	New Romney	5,570	Folkestone and Hythe	2,068	973	225	196	136	0	0	47	3,645
Shepway	North Downs East	8,468	Folkestone and Hythe	3,584	1,388	321	272	300	0	0	24	5,889
Shepway	North Downs West	4,843	Folkestone and Hythe	2,140	563	275	71	167	0	0	12	3,228
Shepway	Romney Marsh	5,767	Folkestone and Hythe	2,176	1,044	182	210	91	0	0	44	3,747
Shepway	Sandgate and West Folkestone	4,076	Folkestone and Hythe	1,649	657	330	136	149	0	0	17	2,938
Shepway	Walland and Denge Marsh	5,811	Folkestone and Hythe	2,374	1,129	276	205	160	0	0	43	4,187
	Total	81,416		32,196	16,786	4,221	2,565	2,496	0	0	607	58,871

The full details of these calculations are given on the Folkestone and Hythe seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Ashford

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Ashford
Ashford	Aylesford Green	2,183	Ashford	641	738	61	34	22	0	0	0	1,496
Ashford	Beaver	4,481	Ashford	1,258	1,403	152	159	97	0	0	0	3,069
Ashford	Bockhanger	1,776	Ashford	725	393	53	28	18	0	0	0	1,217
Ashford	Boughton Aluph and Eastwell	2,575	Ashford	1,122	450	124	39	28	0	0	0	1,763
Ashford	Bybrook	1,943	Ashford	720	509	51	32	20	0	0	0	1,332
Ashford	Charing	1,805	Ashford	790	246	127	60	15	0	0	0	1,238
Ashford	Downs North	1,889	Ashford	907	289	35	25	39	0	0	0	1,295
Ashford	Downs West	1,908	Ashford	945	252	45	25	40	0	0	0	1,307
Ashford	Godinton	4,872	Ashford	1,853	969	243	171	102	0	0	0	3,338
Ashford	Great Chart with Singleton North	2,859	Ashford	1,185	551	87	109	27	0	0	0	1,959
Ashford	Highfield	1,978	Ashford	860	340	69	35	52	0	0	0	1,356
Ashford	Isle of Oxney	1,986	Ashford	922	292	42	65	40	0	0	0	1,361
Ashford	Kennington	1,674	Ashford	732	234	104	60	17	0	0	0	1,147
Ashford	Little Burton Farm	2,444	Ashford	966	470	134	81	23	0	0	0	1,674
Ashford	Norman	2,307	Ashford	797	660	61	37	25	0	0	0	1,580
Ashford	North Willesborough	3,950	Ashford	1,316	885	345	64	96	0	0	0	2,706
Ashford	Park Farm North	2,809	Ashford	1,203	510	88	99	26	0	0	0	1,926
Ashford	Park Farm South	2,399	Ashford	1,051	492	50	34	17	0	0	0	1,644
Ashford	Saxon Shore	3,727	Folkestone and Hythe	1,870	501	100	56	59	0	0	23	2,609
Ashford	Singleton South	2,412	Ashford	950	508	81	90	23	0	0	0	1,652
Ashford	South Willesborough	2,891	Ashford	972	719	102	114	73	0	0	0	1,980
Ashford	Stanhope	2,670	Ashford	666	955	72	86	51	0	0	0	1,830
Ashford	Stour	4,085	Ashford	1,522	994	129	64	90	0	0	0	2,799
Ashford	Victoria	4,393	Ashford	1,263	1,331	148	162	105	0	0	0	3,009
Ashford	Washford	2,692	Ashford	1,097	603	74	46	25	0	0	0	1,845
Ashford	Weald East	1,879	Ashford	950	238	39	26	34	0	0	0	1,287
Ashford	Weald South	4,003	Ashford	1,926	589	89	58	80	0	0	0	2,742
Ashford	Wye	1,731	Ashford	713	284	100	68	22	0	0	0	1,187
	Total	76,321		29,922	16,405	2,805	1,927	1,266	0	0	23	52,348

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Ashford. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Damian Green (CON)
County/Area:	Kent (South East)
Electorate:	76,321
Turnout:	68.6%

Ashford: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Ashford: Overview

Introduction