Ashford: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Ashford: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Damian Green  (CON)
County/Area: Kent (South East)
Electorate: 71,303
Turnout: 73.4%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON29,66256.7%
LAB16,76432.0%
LIB2,7425.2%
UKIP1,9873.8%
Green1,1512.2%
OTH440.1%
CON Majority12,89824.6%

See overview of other seats in South East.

Ashford : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Ashford constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position5° Right4° Right
National Position9° Nat3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %60%52%52%
British Identity26%29%29%
Good Health44%49%48%
UK Born91%88%88%
Good Education31%43%39%
Good Job46%56%51%
High SEC43%57%51%
Average Age47.749.248.5
ABC1 Class44%60%53%

Ashford ranks #147 for "Leave", #195 for "Right" and #151 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Ashford: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Ashford been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Ashford

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Ashford

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Ashford, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: AshfordTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
AshfordAylesford Green2,183Ashford6168003830120001,496
AshfordBeaver4,481Ashford1,1741,440143227870003,071
AshfordBiddenden2,006Kent Mid and Ticehurst1,0551883513820001,373
AshfordBockhanger1,776Ashford749427142070001,217
AshfordBoughton Aluph and Eastwell2,575Ashford1,080493176880001,765
AshfordBybrook1,943Ashford707545224990001,332
AshfordCharing1,805Ashford83715415370210001,235
AshfordDowns North1,889Ashford905284374640001,294
AshfordDowns West1,908Ashford9632133018840001,308
AshfordGodinton4,872Ashford1,902995212166630003,338
AshfordGreat Chart with Singleton North2,859Ashford1,1186329884270001,959
AshfordHighfield1,978Ashford8573496948330001,356
AshfordIsle of Oxney1,986Ashford9632065368720001,362
AshfordKennington1,674Ashford70925911933260001,146
AshfordLittle Burton Farm2,444Ashford1,00045013869170001,674
AshfordNorman2,307Ashford7806773766210001,581
AshfordNorth Willesborough3,950Ashford1,24384747376670002,706
AshfordPark Farm North2,809Ashford1,2045408684100001,924
AshfordPark Farm South2,399Ashford1,0795081036100001,643
AshfordRolvenden and Tenterden West1,816Kent Mid and Ticehurst1,09683357230001,244
AshfordSingleton South2,412Ashford93853160106170001,652
AshfordSouth Willesborough2,891Ashford91383089111390001,982
AshfordSt Michaels1,839Kent Mid and Ticehurst929158867800001,260
AshfordStanhope2,670Ashford58898156169360001,830
AshfordStour4,085Ashford1,5301,0029280950002,799
AshfordTenterden North1,738Kent Mid and Ticehurst81420911528250001,191
AshfordTenterden South1,847Kent Mid and Ticehurst8862377851140001,266
AshfordVictoria4,393Ashford1,3051,244141242770003,009
AshfordWashford2,692Ashford1,0446926432120001,844
AshfordWeald Central3,714Kent Mid and Ticehurst1,8155149686330002,544
AshfordWeald East1,879Ashford929231445790001,288
AshfordWeald North1,845Kent Mid and Ticehurst9152052755610001,263
AshfordWeald South4,003Ashford2,0145505145830002,743
AshfordWye1,731Ashford66136612425100001,186
 Total87,399 35,31817,8403,1012,2181,40400059,881

The full details of these calculations are given on the Ashford seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Folkestone and Hythe

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Folkestone and Hythe, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Folkestone and HytheTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
AshfordSaxon Shore3,727Ashford1,854518113166500442,610
ShepwayBroadmead2,769Folkestone and Hythe1,039485273715600141,938
ShepwayCheriton9,398Folkestone and Hythe3,1052,39256929018300416,580
ShepwayEast Folkestone8,762Folkestone and Hythe2,4972,725288366128001306,134
ShepwayFolkestone Central7,792Folkestone and Hythe2,5541,74358724427800505,456
ShepwayFolkestone Harbour5,296Folkestone and Hythe1,5751,4872612648500353,707
ShepwayHythe8,181Folkestone and Hythe3,5941,0293134169700545,728
ShepwayHythe Rural4,407Folkestone and Hythe1,9906451007619500793,085
ShepwayNew Romney5,205Folkestone and Hythe2,0699172632757700453,646
ShepwayNorth Downs East8,410Folkestone and Hythe3,6021,48632019525000365,889
ShepwayNorth Downs West4,610Folkestone and Hythe2,2733713411920400193,227
ShepwayRomney Marsh5,354Folkestone and Hythe1,9571,1572313264200363,749
ShepwaySandgate and West Folkestone4,199Folkestone and Hythe1,6308022709513300102,940
ShepwayWalland and Denge Marsh5,980Folkestone and Hythe2,4571,02829528710500144,186
 Total84,090 32,19616,7854,2242,5652,4980060758,875

The full details of these calculations are given on the Folkestone and Hythe seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Ashford

The new seat of Ashford is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Ashford
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
AshfordAylesford Green2,341Ashford6168003830120001,496
AshfordBeaver3,817Ashford1,1741,440143227870003,071
AshfordBockhanger1,873Ashford749427142070001,217
AshfordBoughton Aluph and Eastwell2,262Ashford1,080493176880001,765
AshfordBybrook1,891Ashford707545224990001,332
AshfordCharing2,008Ashford83715415370210001,235
AshfordDowns North1,927Ashford905284374640001,294
AshfordDowns West1,932Ashford9632133018840001,308
AshfordGodinton4,641Ashford1,902995212166630003,338
AshfordGreat Chart with Singleton North2,533Ashford1,1186329884270001,959
AshfordHighfield1,841Ashford8573496948330001,356
AshfordIsle of Oxney2,105Ashford9632065368720001,362
AshfordKennington1,799Ashford70925911933260001,146
AshfordLittle Burton Farm2,131Ashford1,00045013869170001,674
AshfordNorman1,840Ashford7806773766210001,581
AshfordNorth Willesborough3,742Ashford1,24384747376670002,706
AshfordPark Farm North2,445Ashford1,2045408684100001,924
AshfordPark Farm South1,932Ashford1,0795081036100001,643
AshfordSaxon Shore4,083Folkestone and Hythe1,854518113166500442,610
AshfordSingleton South2,267Ashford93853160106170001,652
AshfordSouth Willesborough2,360Ashford91383089111390001,982
AshfordStanhope1,900Ashford58898156169360001,830
AshfordStour3,599Ashford1,5301,0029280950002,799
AshfordVictoria3,521Ashford1,3051,244141242770003,009
AshfordWashford2,338Ashford1,0446926432120001,844
AshfordWeald East2,195Ashford929231445790001,288
AshfordWeald South4,177Ashford2,0145505145830002,743
AshfordWye1,803Ashford66136612425100001,186
 Total71,303 29,66216,7642,7421,9871,151004452,350

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Ashford.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
Powered by TigerLib (11-Sep-2017 15:41)