Ashton under Lyne: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Ashton under Lyne: Overview

 Projection: LAB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Jonathan Reynolds  (LAB)
County/Area: Eastern Manchester (North West)
Electorate: 76,869
Turnout: 61.7%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB27,98359.0%
CON16,75835.3%
LIB9201.9%
Green9011.9%
UKIP8701.8%
OTH140.0%
LAB Majority11,22523.7%

See overview of other seats in North West.

Ashton under Lyne : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Ashton under Lyne constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatNorth WestAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position6° Left6° Left
National Position7° Nat2° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %61%54%52%
British Identity30%28%29%
Good Health50%46%48%
UK Born87%92%88%
Good Education42%37%39%
Good Job56%49%51%
High SEC58%48%51%
Average Age47.548.648.5
ABC1 Class60%50%53%

Ashton under Lyne ranks #130 for "Leave", #444 for "Right" and #201 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Ashton under Lyne: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Ashton under Lyne been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Ashton under Lyne

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Ashton under Lyne

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Ashton under Lyne, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Ashton under LyneTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
OldhamFailsworth East7,748Failsworth and Droylsden1,4982,675101251280004,553
OldhamFailsworth West7,734Failsworth and Droylsden1,5172,585105327110004,545
TamesideAshton Hurst8,687Ashton under Lyne2,1272,7793591730005,105
TamesideAshton St Michael's8,737Ashton under Lyne1,6163,26469681190005,136
TamesideAshton Waterloo8,277Ashton under Lyne1,6712,83681206710004,865
TamesideDroylsden East8,607Failsworth and Droylsden1,5083,03571372730005,059
TamesideDroylsden West8,546Failsworth and Droylsden1,4503,04590387520005,024
TamesideSt Peter's9,337Ashton under Lyne1,3233,787941761080005,488
 Total67,673 12,71024,0066461,87853500039,775

The full details of these calculations are given on the Ashton under Lyne seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Denton and Reddish

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Denton and Reddish, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Denton and ReddishTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
StockportReddish North11,070Stockport North and Denton1,7334,30024426310700206,667
StockportReddish South10,378Stockport North and Denton1,6673,97231315712000206,249
TamesideAudenshaw8,588Failsworth and Droylsden1,2433,440513507000185,172
TamesideDenton North East8,545Stockport North and Denton1,4543,324652573600105,146
TamesideDenton South8,491Stockport North and Denton1,4133,1909227939001025,115
TamesideDenton West9,036Stockport North and Denton1,8413,316311635900325,442
TamesideDukinfield9,643Ashton under Lyne1,7333,620573295400145,807
 Total65,751 11,08425,1628531,7984850021639,598

The full details of these calculations are given on the Denton and Reddish seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Stalybridge and Hyde

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Stalybridge and Hyde, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Stalybridge and HydeTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
TamesideDukinfield Stalybridge8,325Ashton under Lyne1,4473,2711450870004,950
TamesideHyde Godley8,787Marple and Hyde1,8813,1478701100005,225
TamesideHyde Newton10,467Marple and Hyde1,7694,12617401540006,223
TamesideHyde Werneth8,941Marple and Hyde2,4822,6428101110005,316
TamesideLongdendale7,820Marple and Hyde1,7722,6667201400004,650
TamesideMossley8,556Ashton under Lyne1,7642,84830701680005,087
TamesideStalybridge North9,910Ashton under Lyne2,3443,3408901200005,893
TamesideStalybridge South8,603Ashton under Lyne2,7332,2384301010005,115
 Total71,409 16,19224,278998099100042,459

The full details of these calculations are given on the Stalybridge and Hyde seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Ashton under Lyne

The new seat of Ashton under Lyne is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Ashton under Lyne
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
TamesideAshton Hurst8,561Ashton under Lyne2,1272,7793591730005,105
TamesideAshton St Michael's8,157Ashton under Lyne1,6163,26469681190005,136
TamesideAshton Waterloo8,338Ashton under Lyne1,6712,83681206710004,865
TamesideDukinfield9,046Denton and Reddish1,7333,620573295400145,807
TamesideDukinfield Stalybridge8,596Stalybridge and Hyde1,4473,2711450870004,950
TamesideMossley8,485Stalybridge and Hyde1,7642,84830701680005,087
TamesideSt Peter's8,283Ashton under Lyne1,3233,787941761080005,488
TamesideStalybridge North9,086Stalybridge and Hyde2,3443,3408901200005,893
TamesideStalybridge South8,317Stalybridge and Hyde2,7332,2384301010005,115
 Total76,869 16,75827,983920870901001447,446

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Ashton under Lyne.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
Powered by TigerLib (11-Sep-2017 15:41)