Aylesbury: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Aylesbury: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: David Lidington  (CON)
County/Area: Buckinghamshire (South East)
Electorate: 77,715
Turnout: 74.9%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON31,09553.4%
LAB15,98927.5%
LIB5,0828.7%
Green2,4664.2%
UKIP2,0063.4%
MIN1,0451.8%
OTH5541.0%
CON Majority15,10625.9%

See overview of other seats in South East.

Aylesbury : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Aylesbury constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position13° Right4° Right
National Position11° Nat3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %52%52%52%
British Identity29%29%29%
Good Health51%49%48%
UK Born97%88%88%
Good Education36%43%39%
Good Job49%56%51%
High SEC57%57%51%
Average Age52.149.248.5
ABC1 Class49%60%53%

Aylesbury ranks #324 for "Leave", #60 for "Right" and #97 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Aylesbury: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Aylesbury been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Aylesbury

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Aylesbury

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Aylesbury, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: AylesburyTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Aylesbury ValeAston Clinton and Stoke Mandeville7,385Aylesbury3,4531,3012529710800445,255
Aylesbury ValeBedgrove4,804Aylesbury1,9958482926446001733,418
Aylesbury ValeCentral and Walton4,856Aylesbury1,6701,223363818600333,456
Aylesbury ValeColdharbour7,143Aylesbury2,4111,6867557610900485,085
Aylesbury ValeElmhurst5,218Aylesbury1,5211,6173981035100243,714
Aylesbury ValeGatehouse5,341Aylesbury1,6291,4594771397000283,802
Aylesbury ValeMandeville and Elm Farm6,670Aylesbury2,5201,5294591208200374,747
Aylesbury ValeOakfield and Bierton4,507Aylesbury1,621992442715600263,208
Aylesbury ValeRiverside3,590Aylesbury1,1399882661221300272,555
Aylesbury ValeSouthcourt4,959Aylesbury1,2471,5914841274600343,529
Aylesbury ValeWalton Court and Hawkslade4,877Aylesbury1,5671,3344111032600303,471
Aylesbury ValeWatermead1,793Aylesbury760318158161300101,275
Aylesbury ValeWendover and Halton6,330Aylesbury2,8071,1033257015900404,504
WycombeBledlow and Bradenham2,295Wycombe1,315204351690091,633
WycombeGreater Hughenden6,398Chesham and Amersham3,3846083971811800284,553
WycombeLacey Green, Speen and the Hampdens2,159Chesham and Amersham1,192223400740071,536
WycombeStokenchurch and Radnage4,220Wycombe2,0815931078811000233,002
 Total82,545 32,31217,6175,6611,2961,2360062158,743

The full details of these calculations are given on the Aylesbury seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Buckingham

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Buckingham, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: BuckinghamTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Aylesbury ValeBuckingham North5,110Buckingham2,19900279631027103,380
Aylesbury ValeBuckingham South4,407Buckingham1,93100243487025502,916
Aylesbury ValeEdlesborough2,297Aylesbury1,274005211208201,520
Aylesbury ValeGatehouse1,349Aylesbury493001301810880892
Aylesbury ValeGreat Brickhill and Newton Longville4,484Buckingham2,13900230431016702,967
Aylesbury ValeGreat Horwood2,660Buckingham1,250004937708501,761
Aylesbury ValeGrendon Underwood and Brill3,168Buckingham1,38300230353013102,097
Aylesbury ValeHaddenham and Stone7,091Buckingham2,78700379902062404,692
Aylesbury ValeLong Crendon2,710Buckingham1,23600112328011701,793
Aylesbury ValeLuffield Abbey2,678Buckingham1,17500126365010401,770
Aylesbury ValeMarsh Gibbon2,584Buckingham1,20500166217012101,709
Aylesbury ValeOakfield and Bierton1,397Aylesbury554001141700860924
Aylesbury ValeOakley2,317Buckingham1,1750013813508601,534
Aylesbury ValePitstone and Cheddington5,055Aylesbury2,22500203696022203,346
Aylesbury ValeQuainton2,522Buckingham1,05100155174028801,668
Aylesbury ValeSteeple Claydon2,478Buckingham1,05700178299010601,640
Aylesbury ValeStewkley2,840Buckingham1,28600128362010401,880
Aylesbury ValeTingewick2,706Buckingham1,22900158303010001,790
Aylesbury ValeWaddesdon2,417Buckingham1,04900209214012801,600
Aylesbury ValeWatermead541Aylesbury2420034510320359
Aylesbury ValeWing2,520Aylesbury1,21200181175010001,668
Aylesbury ValeWingrave2,282Aylesbury75500103216043501,509
Aylesbury ValeWinslow4,705Buckingham1,97300253625026303,114
WycombeIcknield2,677Buckingham1,14800123235026601,772
WycombeThe Risboroughs6,622Buckingham2,2730019653401,37904,382
 Total79,617 34,301004,1698,57305,640052,683

The full details of these calculations are given on the Buckingham seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Aylesbury

The new seat of Aylesbury is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Aylesbury
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Aylesbury ValeAston Clinton and Stoke Mandeville7,422Aylesbury3,4531,3012529710800445,255
Aylesbury ValeBedgrove4,886Aylesbury1,9958482926446001733,418
Aylesbury ValeCentral and Walton4,233Aylesbury1,6701,223363818600333,456
Aylesbury ValeColdharbour6,070Aylesbury2,4111,6867557610900485,085
Aylesbury ValeEdlesborough2,298Buckingham1,274005211208201,520
Aylesbury ValeElmhurst4,285Aylesbury1,5211,6173981035100243,714
Aylesbury ValeGatehouse4,796Aylesbury1,6941,165381215200070223,747
Aylesbury ValeGatehouse1,211Buckingham4282949654510186947
Aylesbury ValeMandeville and Elm Farm6,329Aylesbury2,5201,5294591208200374,747
Aylesbury ValeOakfield and Bierton3,903Aylesbury1,660757337141173066203,154
Aylesbury ValeOakfield and Bierton1,210Buckingham51523510544530206978
Aylesbury ValePitstone and Cheddington4,799Buckingham2,22500203696022203,346
Aylesbury ValeRiverside4,966Aylesbury1,1399882661221300272,555
Aylesbury ValeSouthcourt4,070Aylesbury1,2471,5914841274600343,529
Aylesbury ValeWalton Court and Hawkslade4,179Aylesbury1,5671,3344111032600303,471
Aylesbury ValeWatermead1,655Aylesbury770244121384902581,255
Aylesbury ValeWatermead499Buckingham23274371215072379
Aylesbury ValeWendover and Halton6,288Aylesbury2,8071,1033257015900404,504
Aylesbury ValeWing2,321Buckingham1,21200181175010001,668
Aylesbury ValeWingrave2,295Buckingham75500103216043501,509
 Total77,715 31,09515,9895,0822,0062,46601,04555458,237

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Aylesbury.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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