Barking and Beckton: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Barking and Beckton: Overview

 Projection: LAB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Margaret Hodge  (LAB)
County/Area: Barking and Dagenham (London)
Electorate: 73,046
Turnout: 67.4%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB34,53570.1%
CON10,50321.3%
UKIP2,6535.4%
Green6901.4%
LIB5231.1%
OTH3500.7%
LAB Majority24,03248.8%

See overview of other seats in London.

Barking and Beckton : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Barking and Beckton constituency, the 'London' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatLondonAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position4° Right11° Right
National Position18° Int29° Int1° Int
EU Leave %57%40%52%
British Identity22%38%29%
Good Health41%50%48%
UK Born96%64%88%
Good Education29%48%39%
Good Job42%61%51%
High SEC39%55%51%
Average Age49.444.148.5
ABC1 Class40%62%53%

Barking and Beckton ranks #216 for "Leave", #231 for "Right" and #522 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Barking and Beckton: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Barking and Beckton been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Barking and Beckton

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Barking

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Barking, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: BarkingTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Barking and DagenhamAbbey8,071Barking and Beckton9053,69710712913900224,999
Barking and DagenhamAlibon6,702Dagenham and Rainham1,0212,671473791900124,149
Barking and DagenhamBecontree7,330Barking and Beckton9953,14443334120084,536
Barking and DagenhamEastbury7,356Barking and Beckton1,0053,0771032855000324,552
Barking and DagenhamGascoigne7,480Barking and Beckton7253,625761074700504,630
Barking and DagenhamGoresbrook7,157Barking and Beckton1,0282,917423752200484,432
Barking and DagenhamLongbridge7,399Barking and Beckton1,3862,8351001319300354,580
Barking and DagenhamMayesbrook6,633Barking and Beckton1,0802,4712934714700334,107
Barking and DagenhamParsloes6,019Barking and Beckton8782,48013253100113,726
Barking and DagenhamThames6,311Barking and Beckton7552,80142892600333,908
Barking and DagenhamValence6,562Dagenham and Rainham9322,6014732914000124,061
 Total77,020 10,71032,3195993,0307260029647,680

The full details of these calculations are given on the Barking seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: East Ham

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of East Ham, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: East HamTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
NewhamBeckton8,507Barking and Beckton9514,546131286900405,747
NewhamBoleyn8,916East Ham6885,12649396300586,023
NewhamEast Ham Central8,679East Ham7504,903105312900455,863
NewhamEast Ham North7,712East Ham5924,47167183200305,210
NewhamEast Ham South8,745East Ham6425,00350966000575,908
NewhamGreen Street East8,822East Ham7715,00313934600355,961
NewhamLittle Ilford9,303East Ham6165,49058393100526,286
NewhamManor Park8,682East Ham7804,9447306200425,865
NewhamRoyal Docks5,976Barking and Beckton7952,94252035400384,037
NewhamWall End8,486East Ham6544,695289202900465,733
 Total83,828 7,23947,1236566974750044356,633

The full details of these calculations are given on the East Ham seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Barking and Beckton

The new seat of Barking and Beckton is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Barking and Beckton
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Barking and DagenhamAbbey7,039Barking9053,69710712913900224,999
Barking and DagenhamBecontree7,631Barking9953,14443334120084,536
Barking and DagenhamEastbury6,652Barking1,0053,0771032855000324,552
Barking and DagenhamGascoigne5,598Barking7253,625761074700504,630
Barking and DagenhamGoresbrook6,637Barking1,0282,917423752200484,432
Barking and DagenhamLongbridge7,599Barking1,3862,8351001319300354,580
Barking and DagenhamMayesbrook6,013Barking1,0802,4712934714700334,107
Barking and DagenhamParsloes5,836Barking8782,48013253100113,726
Barking and DagenhamThames6,625Barking7552,80142892600333,908
NewhamBeckton7,335East Ham9514,546131286900405,747
NewhamRoyal Docks6,081East Ham7952,94252035400384,037
 Total73,046 10,50334,5355232,6536900035049,254

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Barking and Beckton.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
Powered by TigerLib (11-Sep-2017 15:41)