Barrow and Furness: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Barrow and Furness: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Unknown (changed seat)  (CON)
County/Area: Cumbria (North West)
Electorate: 74,264
Turnout: 70.5%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON25,20548.1%
LAB24,37646.5%
LIB1,3422.6%
UKIP1,0702.0%
Green3730.7%
CON Majority8291.6%

See overview of other seats in North West.

Barrow and Furness : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Barrow and Furness constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatNorth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONLABCON
Economic Position1° Left6° Left
National Position5° Nat2° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %58%54%52%
British Identity23%28%29%
Good Health48%46%48%
UK Born94%92%88%
Good Education33%37%39%
Good Job57%49%51%
High SEC57%48%51%
Average Age50.048.648.5
ABC1 Class59%50%53%

Barrow and Furness ranks #188 for "Leave", #357 for "Right" and #243 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Barrow and Furness: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Barrow and Furness been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Barrow and Furness

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Barrow and Furness

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Barrow and Furness, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Barrow and FurnessTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Barrow-in-FurnessBarrow Island2,020Barrow and Furness4887701210860001,384
Barrow-in-FurnessCentral3,419Barrow and Furness6891,5001812690002,342
Barrow-in-FurnessDalton North4,884Barrow and Furness1,8571,26111799120003,346
Barrow-in-FurnessDalton South4,814Barrow and Furness1,8121,384544330003,296
Barrow-in-FurnessHawcoat3,844Barrow and Furness1,79781641600002,633
Barrow-in-FurnessHindpool4,749Barrow and Furness8532,3114132170003,254
Barrow-in-FurnessNewbarns4,276Barrow and Furness1,4151,4977910002,929
Barrow-in-FurnessOrmsgill4,622Barrow and Furness9162,20043970003,166
Barrow-in-FurnessParkside4,391Barrow and Furness1,4171,551241150003,008
Barrow-in-FurnessRisedale4,982Barrow and Furness1,0632,1811215620003,414
Barrow-in-FurnessRoosecote3,702Barrow and Furness1,591924111000002,536
Barrow-in-FurnessWalney North4,183Barrow and Furness1,0071,715413900002,865
Barrow-in-FurnessWalney South4,154Barrow and Furness1,2701,49238010002,846
South LakelandBroughton1,718Barrow and Furness832230702430001,177
South LakelandConiston and Crake Valley170Westmorland and Lonsdale76122702000117
South LakelandLow Furness1,333Barrow and Furness631157912213000914
South LakelandMid Furness3,089Barrow and Furness1,19544739930440002,115
South LakelandUlverston Central1,506Barrow and Furness5224076312260001,030
South LakelandUlverston East1,790Barrow and Furness5845116227420001,226
South LakelandUlverston North1,564Barrow and Furness608309930610001,071
South LakelandUlverston South1,471Barrow and Furness634295571220001,009
South LakelandUlverston Town1,403Barrow and Furness43942262038000961
South LakelandUlverston West1,392Barrow and Furness68620244021000953
 Total69,476 22,38222,5941,27996237500047,592

The full details of these calculations are given on the Barrow and Furness seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Copeland

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Copeland, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: CopelandTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
AllerdaleCrummock1,181Penrith and Solway6837154130000821
AllerdaleDalton1,420Penrith and Solway641139128790000987
AllerdaleDerwent Valley1,231Penrith and Solway6668491150000856
AllerdaleKeswick3,992Penrith and Solway1,4708124514200002,775
CopelandArlecdon1,178Cumbria West57017932380000819
CopelandBeckermet2,312Cumbria West1,136417233100001,607
CopelandBootle987Cumbria West5501102510000686
CopelandBransty3,871Cumbria West1,6061,041123200002,691
CopelandCleator Moor North3,157Cumbria West5801,408320300002,194
CopelandCleator Moor South2,144Cumbria West3991,04534200001,489
CopelandDistington3,097Cumbria West6051,52191800002,153
CopelandEgremont North3,404Cumbria West1,0201,219497800002,366
CopelandEgremont South2,855Cumbria West8351,048327000001,985
CopelandEnnerdale774Cumbria West3788368100000539
CopelandFrizington1,956Cumbria West44887513600001,360
CopelandGosforth1,074Cumbria West5341783400000746
CopelandHarbour3,096Cumbria West1,0111,003647500002,153
CopelandHaverigg1,414Barrow and Furness50243812320000984
CopelandHensingham3,199Cumbria West6111,560114200002,224
CopelandHillcrest2,017Cumbria West84853316500001,402
CopelandHolborn Hill1,893Barrow and Furness694601101100001,316
CopelandKells1,875Cumbria West513708275600001,304
CopelandMillom Without1,055Barrow and Furness6017940130000733
CopelandMirehouse3,434Cumbria West6101,667317900002,387
CopelandMoresby1,057Cumbria West39332110110000735
CopelandNewtown2,673Barrow and Furness1,102676285200001,858
CopelandSandwith1,878Cumbria West3269686700001,307
CopelandSeascale2,154Cumbria West1,14230251200001,497
CopelandSt Bees1,374Cumbria West5872828610000956
 Total61,752 21,06119,3681,4071,094000042,930

The full details of these calculations are given on the Copeland seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Barrow and Furness

The new seat of Barrow and Furness is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Barrow and Furness
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Barrow-in-FurnessBarrow Island1,665Barrow and Furness4887701210860001,384
Barrow-in-FurnessCentral2,792Barrow and Furness6891,5001812690002,342
Barrow-in-FurnessDalton North4,948Barrow and Furness1,8571,26111799120003,346
Barrow-in-FurnessDalton South4,728Barrow and Furness1,8121,384544330003,296
Barrow-in-FurnessHawcoat4,156Barrow and Furness1,79781641600002,633
Barrow-in-FurnessHindpool4,243Barrow and Furness8532,3114132170003,254
Barrow-in-FurnessNewbarns4,455Barrow and Furness1,4151,4977910002,929
Barrow-in-FurnessOrmsgill4,275Barrow and Furness9162,20043970003,166
Barrow-in-FurnessParkside4,331Barrow and Furness1,4171,551241150003,008
Barrow-in-FurnessRisedale4,554Barrow and Furness1,0632,1811215620003,414
Barrow-in-FurnessRoosecote3,934Barrow and Furness1,591924111000002,536
Barrow-in-FurnessWalney North4,295Barrow and Furness1,0071,715413900002,865
Barrow-in-FurnessWalney South4,123Barrow and Furness1,2701,49238010002,846
CopelandHaverigg1,028Copeland50243812320000984
CopelandHolborn Hill1,935Copeland694601101100001,316
CopelandMillom Without1,092Copeland6017940130000733
CopelandNewtown2,635Copeland1,102676285200001,858
South LakelandBroughton1,782Barrow and Furness832230702430001,177
South LakelandLow Furness1,411Barrow and Furness631157912213000914
South LakelandMid Furness3,083Barrow and Furness1,19544739930440002,115
South LakelandUlverston Central1,387Barrow and Furness5224076312260001,030
South LakelandUlverston East1,552Barrow and Furness5845116227420001,226
South LakelandUlverston North1,521Barrow and Furness608309930610001,071
South LakelandUlverston South1,453Barrow and Furness634295571220001,009
South LakelandUlverston Town1,421Barrow and Furness43942262038000961
South LakelandUlverston West1,465Barrow and Furness68620244021000953
 Total74,264 25,20524,3761,3421,07037300052,366

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Barrow and Furness.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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