Basildon and East Thurrock: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Basildon and East Thurrock: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Stephen Metcalfe  (CON)
County/Area: Essex (Anglia)
Electorate: 76,451
Turnout: 69.0%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON28,88254.8%
LAB18,44935.0%
UKIP3,4596.6%
LIB1,1122.1%
Green5000.9%
OTH3360.6%
CON Majority10,43319.8%

See overview of other seats in Anglia.

Basildon and East Thurrock : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Basildon and East Thurrock constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatAngliaAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position10° Right8° Right
National Position23° Nat10° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %73%57%52%
British Identity22%27%29%
Good Health47%47%48%
UK Born93%89%88%
Good Education29%37%39%
Good Job49%53%51%
High SEC48%53%51%
Average Age48.549.448.5
ABC1 Class49%55%53%

Basildon and East Thurrock ranks #5 for "Leave", #98 for "Right" and #5 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Basildon and East Thurrock: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Basildon and East Thurrock been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Basildon and East Thurrock

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Basildon and Billericay

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Basildon and Billericay, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Basildon and BillericayTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BasildonBillericay East9,057Billericay4,3801,08331610500005,884
BasildonBillericay West9,239Billericay4,4811,17323711100006,002
BasildonBurstead8,222Billericay3,99997225211800005,341
BasildonCrouch6,886Billericay3,2301,0172420200004,473
BasildonFryerns10,076Basildon and East Thurrock3,1822,70722643100006,546
BasildonLaindon Park8,772Billericay3,1992,05316128500005,698
BasildonLee Chapel North10,408Basildon and East Thurrock3,0183,06421546400006,761
BasildonSt Martin's6,490Basildon and East Thurrock1,8931,91311829200004,216
 Total69,150 27,38213,9821,5492,008000044,921

The full details of these calculations are given on the Basildon and Billericay seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Basildon South and East Thurrock

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Basildon South and East Thurrock, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Basildon South and East ThurrockTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BasildonLangdon Hills6,864Basildon and East Thurrock2,9851,040572525100134,398
BasildonNethermayne9,015Basildon and East Thurrock3,0322,0152923019000465,776
BasildonPitsea North West9,623Castle Point2,9382,565694769700226,167
BasildonPitsea South East8,957Castle Point3,0851,9921084458300255,738
BasildonVange7,633Basildon and East Thurrock2,3232,060653347700314,890
ThurrockCorringham and Fobbing4,127Basildon and East Thurrock1,70770571912200122,644
ThurrockEast Tilbury4,837Basildon and East Thurrock1,7388933123158001473,098
ThurrockOrsett4,601Basildon and East Thurrock2,169552181534500122,949
ThurrockStanford East and Corringham Town6,609Basildon and East Thurrock2,3481,437123734800174,235
ThurrockStanford-le-Hope West4,846Basildon and East Thurrock1,850958401885600133,105
ThurrockThe Homesteads6,430Basildon and East Thurrock2,6371,105312495300454,120
 Total73,542 26,81215,3227303,1936800038347,120

The full details of these calculations are given on the Basildon South and East Thurrock seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Basildon and East Thurrock

The new seat of Basildon and East Thurrock is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Basildon and East Thurrock
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BasildonFryerns9,123Basildon and Billericay3,1822,70722643100006,546
BasildonLangdon Hills6,814Basildon South and East Thurrock2,9851,040572525100134,398
BasildonLee Chapel North8,775Basildon and Billericay3,0183,06421546400006,761
BasildonNethermayne8,486Basildon South and East Thurrock3,0322,0152923019000465,776
BasildonSt Martin's5,730Basildon and Billericay1,8931,91311829200004,216
BasildonVange6,547Basildon South and East Thurrock2,3232,060653347700314,890
ThurrockCorringham and Fobbing4,326Basildon South and East Thurrock1,70770571912200122,644
ThurrockEast Tilbury4,536Basildon South and East Thurrock1,7388933123158001473,098
ThurrockOrsett4,823Basildon South and East Thurrock2,169552181534500122,949
ThurrockStanford East and Corringham Town6,307Basildon South and East Thurrock2,3481,437123734800174,235
ThurrockStanford-le-Hope West4,550Basildon South and East Thurrock1,850958401885600133,105
ThurrockThe Homesteads6,434Basildon South and East Thurrock2,6371,105312495300454,120
 Total76,451 28,88218,4491,1123,4595000033652,738

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Basildon and East Thurrock.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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