Battersea and Clapham: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Battersea and Clapham: Overview

 Projection: LAB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Marsha De Cordova  (LAB)
County/Area: Wandsworth (London)
Electorate: 75,056
Turnout: 78.4%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB30,29951.5%
CON21,82537.1%
LIB4,4997.6%
Green9071.5%
MIN8811.5%
UKIP3830.7%
OTH670.1%
LAB Majority8,47414.4%

See overview of other seats in London.

Battersea and Clapham : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Battersea and Clapham constituency, the 'London' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatLondonAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position17° Right11° Right
National Position38° Int29° Int1° Int
EU Leave %23%40%52%
British Identity36%38%29%
Good Health59%50%48%
UK Born65%64%88%
Good Education65%48%39%
Good Job78%61%51%
High SEC69%55%51%
Average Age40.244.148.5
ABC1 Class76%62%53%

Battersea and Clapham ranks #589 for "Leave", #27 for "Right" and #586 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Battersea and Clapham: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Battersea and Clapham been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Battersea and Clapham

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Battersea

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Battersea, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: BatterseaTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
WandsworthBalham10,743Tooting3,4033,10581224134014327,623
WandsworthFairfield10,571Wandsworth and Putney3,4003,0237284492020967,502
WandsworthLatchmere11,218Battersea and Clapham2,2444,99636170100018847,963
WandsworthNorthcote10,760Battersea and Clapham3,7892,7887933085015027,637
WandsworthQueenstown11,876Battersea and Clapham2,9704,43063036163019468,429
WandsworthShaftesbury10,329Battersea and Clapham3,3263,19246167108017347,331
WandsworthSt Mary's Park12,074Battersea and Clapham3,7433,75761686183017688,569
 Total77,571 22,87525,2914,40135786501,2333255,054

The full details of these calculations are given on the Battersea seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Streatham

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Streatham, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: StreathamTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
LambethBrixton Hill10,835Streatham and Brixton South1,3085,655369303360007,698
LambethClapham Common8,780Battersea and Clapham2,5723,20134133910006,238
LambethSt Leonard's9,938Streatham and Brixton South1,6894,397521973560007,060
LambethStreatham Hill9,724Streatham and Brixton South1,3644,603726261890006,908
LambethStreatham South9,813Streatham and Brixton South1,6134,967213571210006,971
LambethStreatham Wells10,182Streatham and Brixton South1,3884,867705442310007,235
LambethThornton8,480Battersea and Clapham1,1484,41831761820006,026
LambethTulse Hill10,781Streatham and Brixton South8466,10341902910007,659
 Total78,533 11,92838,2113,6113481,69700055,795

The full details of these calculations are given on the Streatham seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Vauxhall

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Vauxhall, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: VauxhallTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
LambethBishop's6,973Brixton and Vauxhall8112,1861,554010300324,686
LambethClapham Town9,921Battersea and Clapham2,0333,51798009500436,668
LambethFerndale10,680Brixton and Vauxhall1,4654,3241,1550120001137,177
LambethLarkhall12,425Brixton and Vauxhall1,7094,8181,5550141001258,348
LambethOval10,888Brixton and Vauxhall1,1004,0611,904018100707,316
LambethPrince's10,228Brixton and Vauxhall1,1224,1481,3650133001066,874
LambethStockwell10,650Brixton and Vauxhall1,1504,2521,531013300917,157
LambethVassall10,142Brixton and Vauxhall8874,2691,2820247001326,817
 Total81,907 10,27731,57511,32601,1530071255,043

The full details of these calculations are given on the Vauxhall seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Battersea and Clapham

The new seat of Battersea and Clapham is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Battersea and Clapham
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
LambethClapham Common8,296Streatham2,5723,20134133910006,238
LambethClapham Town9,187Vauxhall2,0333,51798009500436,668
LambethThornton8,078Streatham1,1484,41831761820006,026
WandsworthLatchmere9,569Battersea2,2444,99636170100018847,963
WandsworthNorthcote9,292Battersea3,7892,7887933085015027,637
WandsworthQueenstown9,948Battersea2,9704,43063036163019468,429
WandsworthShaftesbury9,921Battersea3,3263,19246167108017347,331
WandsworthSt Mary's Park10,765Battersea3,7433,75761686183017688,569
 Total75,056 21,82530,2994,49938390708816758,861

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Battersea and Clapham.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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