Bedfordshire South West: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Bedfordshire South West: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Andrew Selous  (CON)
County/Area: Bedfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate: 73,699
Turnout: 72.6%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON33,12761.9%
LAB16,22030.3%
LIB2,6935.0%
Green1,1582.2%
OTH3370.6%
CON Majority16,90731.6%

See overview of other seats in Anglia.

Bedfordshire South West : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Bedfordshire South West constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatAngliaAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position13° Right8° Right
National Position10° Nat10° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %55%57%52%
British Identity26%27%29%
Good Health48%47%48%
UK Born92%89%88%
Good Education39%37%39%
Good Job56%53%51%
High SEC57%53%51%
Average Age49.349.448.5
ABC1 Class59%55%53%

Bedfordshire South West ranks #267 for "Leave", #59 for "Right" and #120 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Bedfordshire South West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Bedfordshire South West been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Bedfordshire South West

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Bedfordshire Mid

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Bedfordshire Mid, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Bedfordshire MidTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BedfordElstow and Stewartby3,301Bedfordshire Mid1,02777263303400202,486
BedfordKempston Rural2,322Bedford1,1744161420110071,750
BedfordWilshamstead2,751Bedfordshire Mid1,38548615603600102,073
BedfordWootton3,462Bedfordshire Mid1,3877643800690092,609
Central BedfordshireAmpthill9,939Bedfordshire Mid4,9781,8582070344001027,489
Central BedfordshireArlesey5,596Bedfordshire Mid2,7131,25714605600454,217
Central BedfordshireAspley and Woburn3,867Bedfordshire South West2,09247689024200152,914
Central BedfordshireBarton-le-Clay4,180Bedfordshire Mid1,5791,109310041001103,149
Central BedfordshireCranfield and Marston Moretaine10,346Bedfordshire Mid4,7802,525171027500477,798
Central BedfordshireFlitwick11,076Bedfordshire Mid4,9772,577439031000458,348
Central BedfordshireHoughton Conquest and Haynes2,286Bedfordshire Mid1,213450300900201,722
Central BedfordshireNorthill1,279Bedfordshire North East66026228010004964
Central BedfordshireShefford7,867Bedfordshire Mid3,8851,68922809100365,929
Central BedfordshireSilsoe and Shillington3,513Bedfordshire Mid1,5998656303500852,647
Central BedfordshireToddington8,059Bedfordshire South West3,4431,75170907500946,072
Central BedfordshireWestoning, Flitton and Greenfield3,955Bedfordshire Mid2,04269767015700182,981
 Total83,799 38,93417,9543,79801,7950066763,148

The full details of these calculations are given on the Bedfordshire Mid seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Bedfordshire South West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Bedfordshire South West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Bedfordshire South WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Central BedfordshireCaddington2,347Luton South1,0894833202100141,639
Central BedfordshireDunstable-Central3,427Bedfordshire South West1,4168983702200212,394
Central BedfordshireDunstable-Icknield6,024Bedfordshire South West2,6001,4986501300324,208
Central BedfordshireDunstable-Manshead4,048Bedfordshire South West1,4531,2724602500302,826
Central BedfordshireDunstable-Northfields7,124Bedfordshire South West2,7232,0506609300434,975
Central BedfordshireDunstable-Watling7,608Bedfordshire South West3,6441,4989804400295,313
Central BedfordshireEaton Bray3,204Bedfordshire South West1,5595844402600242,237
Central BedfordshireHeath and Reach3,099Bedfordshire South West1,837253510160082,165
Central BedfordshireHoughton Hall6,120Luton North and Houghton Regis1,9391,68756007500144,275
Central BedfordshireLeighton Buzzard North11,013Bedfordshire South West4,7362,322404021900107,691
Central BedfordshireLeighton Buzzard South9,010Bedfordshire South West3,9001,825375017700166,293
Central BedfordshireLinslade9,232Bedfordshire South West3,7241,793709020600156,447
Central BedfordshireParkside3,888Luton North and Houghton Regis1,2061,459180900252,717
Central BedfordshireTithe Farm3,525Luton North and Houghton Regis1,1371,1721260500212,461
 Total79,669 32,96318,7942,63109510030255,641

The full details of these calculations are given on the Bedfordshire South West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Bedfordshire South West

The new seat of Bedfordshire South West is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Bedfordshire South West
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Central BedfordshireAspley and Woburn3,681Bedfordshire Mid2,09247689024200152,914
Central BedfordshireDunstable-Central3,332Bedfordshire South West1,4168983702200212,394
Central BedfordshireDunstable-Icknield5,731Bedfordshire South West2,6001,4986501300324,208
Central BedfordshireDunstable-Manshead3,575Bedfordshire South West1,4531,2724602500302,826
Central BedfordshireDunstable-Northfields6,528Bedfordshire South West2,7232,0506609300434,975
Central BedfordshireDunstable-Watling7,402Bedfordshire South West3,6441,4989804400295,313
Central BedfordshireEaton Bray3,292Bedfordshire South West1,5595844402600242,237
Central BedfordshireHeath and Reach3,426Bedfordshire South West1,837253510160082,165
Central BedfordshireLeighton Buzzard North10,881Bedfordshire South West4,7362,322404021900107,691
Central BedfordshireLeighton Buzzard South9,303Bedfordshire South West3,9001,825375017700166,293
Central BedfordshireLinslade9,108Bedfordshire South West3,7241,793709020600156,447
Central BedfordshireToddington7,440Bedfordshire Mid3,4431,75170907500946,072
 Total73,699 33,12716,2202,69301,1580033753,535

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Bedfordshire South West.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
Powered by TigerLib (11-Sep-2017 15:41)