Belfast East: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Belfast East: Overview

 Projection: DUP seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Gavin Robinson  (DUP)
County/Area: Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 71,636
Turnout: 68.0%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
DUP23,38648.0%
MIN13,73128.2%
SF4,4329.1%
SDLP3,9568.1%
UUP1,9254.0%
Green8161.7%
OTH4480.9%
DUP Majority9,65519.8%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Belfast East: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Belfast East been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Belfast East

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Belfast East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Belfast East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Belfast EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastBallymacarrett3,761Belfast East92211,65300114639212,540
BelfastBeersbridge4,430Belfast East109251,94700135753242,993
BelfastBelmont3,347Belfast East82099505311,093352,259
BelfastBloomfield4,135Belfast East101231,81700126704232,794
BelfastConnswater3,913Belfast East96221,72100119665222,645
BelfastCregagh1,561Belfast East389686004726591,054
BelfastGarnerville3,159Belfast East77093905011,031332,131
BelfastGilnahirk3,481Belfast East8511,03505611,137372,352
BelfastHillfoot1,430Belfast East35862900442438967
BelfastKnock3,520Belfast East8611,04705611,151372,379
BelfastMerok3,010Belfast East74171,3230092511172,034
BelfastOrangefield3,255Belfast East80181,4310099554182,200
BelfastSandown3,092Belfast East75091904911,010332,087
BelfastShandon3,516Belfast East8611,04505611,150372,376
BelfastStormont3,398Belfast East8311,01005511,111362,297
BelfastSydenham3,583Belfast East88201,57500109609202,421
BelfastWoodstock48Belfast East10210018031
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallyhanwood1,914Down North2107270330496161,293
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarrowreagh2,554Down North2809710430661211,724
Lisburn and CastlereaghDundonald2,082Down North2307920360539171,407
Lisburn and CastlereaghEnler2,215Down North2508420370573191,496
Lisburn and CastlereaghGraham's Bridge2,090Down North2307950360541181,413
 Total63,494 1,40816723,920056089315,44450142,893

The full details of these calculations are given on the Belfast East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Belfast South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Belfast South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Belfast SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastBelvoir2,735Belfast East5550261106526230691,810
BelfastBlackstaff4,153Belfast South West725827720270342688212,747
BelfastCentral6,647Belfast South West1149321,23604315471,101344,395
BelfastCregagh1,365Belfast East5328822901331270902
BelfastFinaghy2,684Belfast South West5349260106425730091,776
BelfastHillfoot1,642Belfast East64346276015376901,086
BelfastMalone2,779Belfast South West55509621067266310101,838
BelfastMerok0Belfast East000000000
BelfastMusgrave2,997Belfast South West60548670071286334101,979
BelfastOrmeau3,872Belfast East675427180251318641202,557
BelfastRavenhill2,862Belfast East1126024810266541601,891
BelfastRosetta3,352Belfast East1317075620317671812,217
BelfastStranmillis4,849Belfast South West836819020313399803253,206
BelfastUpper Malone2,801Belfast South West56513627067268312101,853
BelfastWindsor6,402Belfast South West1108971,19004155271,060334,232
BelfastWoodstock3,611Belfast East1417606060338262012,387
Lisburn and CastlereaghBeechill2,210Down West50397530018122334101,461
Lisburn and CastlereaghCairnshill1,868Strangford4233644801510328391,236
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff East1,737Strangford393134170149626381,150
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff West2,049Down West46368490017113310101,354
Lisburn and CastlereaghGalwally1,912Strangford4334345901610628991,265
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockbracken1,904Down West4334245601610628891,260
Lisburn and CastlereaghNewtownbreda1,675Down West383024010149225381,108
 Total66,106 1,52711,30213,30302,2427,1457,94524643,710

The full details of these calculations are given on the Belfast South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Down North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Down North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Down NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastGarnerville219Belfast East0046073614121
North Down and ArdsBallycrochan2,191Down North0053404318581351,211
North Down and ArdsBallygrainey3,420Down North00728013225948571,890
North Down and ArdsBallyholme2,643Down North00562010219732441,459
North Down and ArdsBallymagee2,967Down North0072305924787481,641
North Down and ArdsBloomfield2,899Down North00618011121802491,601
North Down and ArdsBroadway2,618Down North00557010019725441,445
North Down and ArdsBryansburn2,586Down North02958808517670411,430
North Down and ArdsCarrowdore843Strangford03728100331097467
North Down and ArdsCastle2,864Down North00610011021794481,583
North Down and ArdsClandeboye2,646Down North030619020019560341,462
North Down and ArdsCultra2,681Down North030628020319568341,482
North Down and ArdsDonaghadee2,930Down North0071405824777471,620
North Down and ArdsGroomsport2,569Down North0062505121682411,420
North Down and ArdsHarbour3,297Down North00703012624914551,822
North Down and ArdsHelen's Bay2,555Down North029598019318541331,412
North Down and ArdsHolywood3,146Down North036736023823666401,739
North Down and ArdsKilcooley3,013Down North03368509819781471,663
North Down and ArdsLoughries1,157Strangford05138600451509641
North Down and ArdsLoughview3,445Down North039805026125730441,904
North Down and ArdsRathgael2,462Down North02755908116638391,360
North Down and ArdsRathmore2,611Down North02959408517677411,443
North Down and ArdsSilverbirch3,016Down North0073405924800481,665
North Down and ArdsSilverstream2,738Down North03062309018709431,513
North Down and ArdsWarren2,818Down North0068705523747451,557
 Total64,334 040014,94302,54753516,14997735,551

The full details of these calculations are given on the Down North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Lagan Valley

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Lagan Valley, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Lagan ValleyTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDonaghcloney75Down West133260025150
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDromore3,215Down West5311061,0910050192261,996
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGransha2,493Down West412828460038149201,547
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonQuilly2,989Down West495981,0130046178241,854
BelfastBelvoir265Belfast East1442640021193163
BelfastDunmurry908Belfast South West209311900290375564
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallinderry2,566Antrim South2471918850016097131,593
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacash2,231Antrim South165115935000149201,384
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacbrennan2,064Down West21126843000178241,282
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacoss3,065Antrim South2261581,284000205281,901
Lisburn and CastlereaghBlaris2,177Down West31586760000168231,352
Lisburn and CastlereaghDerryaghy2,844Antrim South2321631,01500100223311,764
Lisburn and CastlereaghDromara2,386Down West24430973000205281,480
Lisburn and CastlereaghDrumbo2,077Down West21326848000178241,289
Lisburn and CastlereaghHarmony Hill2,205Antrim South1811277860077173241,368
Lisburn and CastlereaghHilden2,634Antrim South2151529400092207281,634
Lisburn and CastlereaghHillhall2,553Down West261321,041000220301,584
Lisburn and CastlereaghHillsborough2,234Down West32289779000172241,386
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockmore2,735Antrim South2031411,146000183251,698
Lisburn and CastlereaghLagan2,172Down West31486758000168231,349
Lisburn and CastlereaghLagan Valley2,436Antrim South1801251,021000163221,511
Lisburn and CastlereaghLambeg2,416Antrim South1981398630085190261,501
Lisburn and CastlereaghLisnagarvey2,219Antrim South165114929000149201,377
Lisburn and CastlereaghMaghaberry2,914Antrim South2792171,00500183110151,809
Lisburn and CastlereaghMagheralave2,275Antrim South1851318130081178241,412
Lisburn and CastlereaghMaze2,064Down West29981721000160221,283
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoira2,679Down West387106935000207281,663
Lisburn and CastlereaghOld Warren2,865Antrim South2121481,202000192261,780
Lisburn and CastlereaghRavernet2,103Down West21527858000181251,306
Lisburn and CastlereaghStonyford344Antrim South33261180021132213
Lisburn and CastlereaghWallace Park2,847Antrim South2321631,01700100223311,766
Lisburn and CastlereaghWhite Mountain3,198Antrim South3062381,10200200121171,984
Newry, Mourne and DownBallyward132Down South8222700214183
 Total72,380 7,5333,38326,763001,5674,99768344,926

The full details of these calculations are given on the Lagan Valley seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Belfast East

The new seat of Belfast East is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Belfast East
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastBallymacarrett3,497Belfast East92211,65300114639212,540
BelfastBeersbridge3,413Belfast East109251,94700135753242,993
BelfastBelmont3,503Belfast East82099505311,093352,259
BelfastBelvoir3,135Belfast South63497616059258297111,801
BelfastBelvoir298Lagan Valley647590625281172
BelfastBloomfield3,443Belfast East101231,81700126704232,794
BelfastConnswater3,501Belfast East96221,72100119665222,645
BelfastCregagh1,466Belfast South42139427061681274913
BelfastCregagh1,676Belfast East491584880719114551,043
BelfastGarnerville3,223Belfast East72092105341,021352,106
BelfastGarnerville225Down North5064040712146
BelfastGilnahirk3,532Belfast East8511,03505611,137372,352
BelfastHillfoot1,667Belfast East46165421071951174955
BelfastHillfoot1,916Belfast South531894840822513541,098
BelfastKnock3,626Belfast East8611,04705611,151372,379
BelfastMerok3,058Belfast East74171,3230092511172,034
BelfastMerok0Belfast South000000000
BelfastOrangefield3,375Belfast East80181,4310099554182,200
BelfastOrmeau3,425Belfast South675427180251318641202,557
BelfastRavenhill3,077Belfast South1126024810266541601,891
BelfastRosetta3,653Belfast South1317075620317671812,217
BelfastSandown3,179Belfast East75091904911,010332,087
BelfastShandon3,722Belfast East8611,04505611,150372,376
BelfastStormont3,635Belfast East8311,01005511,111362,297
BelfastSydenham3,304Belfast East88201,57500109609202,421
BelfastWoodstock3,046Belfast South1407506190338162812,387
BelfastWoodstock41Belfast East210800110031
 Total71,636 1,9253,95623,38608164,43213,73144848,694

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Belfast East.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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