Belfast South: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Belfast South: Overview

 Projection: DUP seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Emma Little Pengelly  (DUP)
County/Area: Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 71,335
Turnout: 65.6%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
DUP15,65833.4%
SDLP11,10423.7%
MIN8,69318.6%
SF6,91714.8%
Green2,3275.0%
UUP1,8153.9%
OTH3120.7%
DUP Majority4,5549.7%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Belfast South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Belfast South been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Belfast South

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Belfast East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Belfast East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Belfast EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastBallymacarrett3,761Belfast East92211,65300114639212,540
BelfastBeersbridge4,430Belfast East109251,94700135753242,993
BelfastBelmont3,347Belfast East82099505311,093352,259
BelfastBloomfield4,135Belfast East101231,81700126704232,794
BelfastConnswater3,913Belfast East96221,72100119665222,645
BelfastCregagh1,561Belfast South389686004726591,054
BelfastGarnerville3,159Belfast East77093905011,031332,131
BelfastGilnahirk3,481Belfast East8511,03505611,137372,352
BelfastHillfoot1,430Belfast East35862900442438967
BelfastKnock3,520Belfast East8611,04705611,151372,379
BelfastMerok3,010Belfast East74171,3230092511172,034
BelfastOrangefield3,255Belfast East80181,4310099554182,200
BelfastSandown3,092Belfast East75091904911,010332,087
BelfastShandon3,516Belfast East8611,04505611,150372,376
BelfastStormont3,398Belfast East8311,01005511,111362,297
BelfastSydenham3,583Belfast East88201,57500109609202,421
BelfastWoodstock48Belfast South10210018031
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallyhanwood1,914Belfast East2107270330496161,293
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarrowreagh2,554Belfast East2809710430661211,724
Lisburn and CastlereaghDundonald2,082Belfast East2307920360539171,407
Lisburn and CastlereaghEnler2,215Belfast East2508420370573191,496
Lisburn and CastlereaghGraham's Bridge2,090Belfast East2307950360541181,413
 Total63,494 1,40816723,920056089315,44450142,893

The full details of these calculations are given on the Belfast East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Belfast South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Belfast South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Belfast SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastBelvoir2,735Belfast South5550261106526230691,810
BelfastBlackstaff4,153Belfast South725827720270342688212,747
BelfastCentral6,647Belfast South1149321,23604315471,101344,395
BelfastCregagh1,365Belfast South5328822901331270902
BelfastFinaghy2,684Belfast South5349260106425730091,776
BelfastHillfoot1,642Belfast East64346276015376901,086
BelfastMalone2,779Belfast South55509621067266310101,838
BelfastMerok0Belfast East000000000
BelfastMusgrave2,997Belfast South60548670071286334101,979
BelfastOrmeau3,872Belfast South675427180251318641202,557
BelfastRavenhill2,862Belfast South1126024810266541601,891
BelfastRosetta3,352Belfast South1317075620317671812,217
BelfastStranmillis4,849Belfast South836819020313399803253,206
BelfastUpper Malone2,801Belfast South56513627067268312101,853
BelfastWindsor6,402Belfast South1108971,19004155271,060334,232
BelfastWoodstock3,611Belfast South1417606060338262012,387
Lisburn and CastlereaghBeechill2,210Belfast South50397530018122334101,461
Lisburn and CastlereaghCairnshill1,868Belfast South4233644801510328391,236
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff East1,737Belfast South393134170149626381,150
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff West2,049Belfast South46368490017113310101,354
Lisburn and CastlereaghGalwally1,912Belfast South4334345901610628991,265
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockbracken1,904Belfast South4334245601610628891,260
Lisburn and CastlereaghNewtownbreda1,675Belfast South383024010149225381,108
 Total66,106 1,52711,30213,30302,2427,1457,94524643,710

The full details of these calculations are given on the Belfast South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Belfast West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Belfast West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Belfast WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastAndersonstown3,137Belfast West014188001,557203532,042
BelfastBallygomartin3,887Belfast West085976009713951032,530
BelfastBallymurphy3,386Belfast West015295001,680220572,204
BelfastBeechmount3,815Belfast West0172107001,893248652,485
BelfastCentral177Belfast South013310046195114
BelfastClonard3,807Belfast West084956009513871012,479
BelfastCollin Glen3,849Belfast West0173108001,910249652,505
BelfastDunmurry2,813Belfast West017993001,411117311,831
BelfastFalls3,431Belfast West07686200856348912,233
BelfastFalls Park3,153Belfast West014288001,564204532,051
BelfastForth River2,435Belfast West05461200608247651,586
BelfastLadybrook3,384Belfast West0216111001,698141372,203
BelfastLagmore5,089Belfast West0325167002,553212553,312
BelfastPoleglass4,163Belfast West0265137002,089174452,710
BelfastShankill2,144Belfast West04753800535217571,394
BelfastShaw's Road3,416Belfast West015496001,695221582,224
BelfastStewartstown3,451Belfast West0220113001,730144382,245
BelfastTurf Lodge3,351Belfast West015094001,662218572,181
BelfastTwinbrook3,232Belfast West0206106001,621135352,103
BelfastWoodvale306Belfast West07770077318200
 Total62,426 02,8615,4550027,1074,1301,07940,632

The full details of these calculations are given on the Belfast West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Lagan Valley

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Lagan Valley, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Lagan ValleyTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDonaghcloney75Upper Bann133260025150
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDromore3,215Down Mid5311061,0910050192261,996
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGransha2,493Down Mid412828460038149201,547
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonQuilly2,989Down Mid495981,0130046178241,854
BelfastBelvoir265Belfast South1442640021193163
BelfastDunmurry908Belfast West209311900290375564
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallinderry2,566Antrim South2471918850016097131,593
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacash2,231Antrim South165115935000149201,384
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacbrennan2,064Down Mid21126843000178241,282
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacoss3,065Antrim South2261581,284000205281,901
Lisburn and CastlereaghBlaris2,177Antrim South31586760000168231,352
Lisburn and CastlereaghDerryaghy2,844Belfast West2321631,01500100223311,764
Lisburn and CastlereaghDromara2,386Down Mid24430973000205281,480
Lisburn and CastlereaghDrumbo2,077Belfast South21326848000178241,289
Lisburn and CastlereaghHarmony Hill2,205Antrim South1811277860077173241,368
Lisburn and CastlereaghHilden2,634Antrim South2151529400092207281,634
Lisburn and CastlereaghHillhall2,553Antrim South261321,041000220301,584
Lisburn and CastlereaghHillsborough2,234Down Mid32289779000172241,386
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockmore2,735Antrim South2031411,146000183251,698
Lisburn and CastlereaghLagan2,172Antrim South31486758000168231,349
Lisburn and CastlereaghLagan Valley2,436Antrim South1801251,021000163221,511
Lisburn and CastlereaghLambeg2,416Belfast West1981398630085190261,501
Lisburn and CastlereaghLisnagarvey2,219Antrim South165114929000149201,377
Lisburn and CastlereaghMaghaberry2,914Antrim South2792171,00500183110151,809
Lisburn and CastlereaghMagheralave2,275Antrim South1851318130081178241,412
Lisburn and CastlereaghMaze2,064Antrim South29981721000160221,283
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoira2,679Antrim South387106935000207281,663
Lisburn and CastlereaghOld Warren2,865Antrim South2121481,202000192261,780
Lisburn and CastlereaghRavernet2,103Down Mid21527858000181251,306
Lisburn and CastlereaghStonyford344Antrim South33261180021132213
Lisburn and CastlereaghWallace Park2,847Antrim South2321631,01700100223311,766
Lisburn and CastlereaghWhite Mountain3,198Antrim South3062381,10200200121171,984
Newry, Mourne and DownBallyward132Down South8222700214183
 Total72,380 7,5333,38326,763001,5674,99768344,926

The full details of these calculations are given on the Lagan Valley seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Strangford

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Strangford, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: StrangfordTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff East408Belfast South16411180423414247
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockbracken178Belfast South717520210182108
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoneyreagh1,985Belfast South6308110940209191,196
Newry, Mourne and DownBallynahinch3,042Down Mid289254939024138174151,833
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossgar and Killyleagh1,884Down South17915758201585108101,136
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryboy2,488Down Mid237207768020113142131,500
Newry, Mourne and DownKilmore2,777Down Mid264231857022126159141,673
Newry, Mourne and DownSaintfield2,848Down Mid270237879023129162141,714
North Down and ArdsBallygowan2,942Down Mid23501,2100290274241,772
North Down and ArdsBallywalter3,120Down North1882621,20001896108101,882
North Down and ArdsCarrowdore2,061Down North123172793012637261,241
North Down and ArdsComber North2,691Down Mid21601,1070260250221,621
North Down and ArdsComber South2,551Down Mid20501,0490250237211,537
North Down and ArdsComber West2,619Down Mid21001,0770260243221,578
North Down and ArdsConway Square2,969Down Mid16401,1330280426381,789
North Down and ArdsCronstown3,193Down Mid17601,2190300457411,923
North Down and ArdsGlen2,976Down Mid16401,1360280427381,793
North Down and ArdsGregstown2,454Down Mid13509370230352311,478
North Down and ArdsKillinchy2,425Down Mid19509970240225201,461
North Down and ArdsKircubbin3,001Down North1802511,1540179110491,806
North Down and ArdsLoughries1,408Down North841185420843484847
North Down and ArdsMovilla3,054Down Mid16901,1660280438391,840
North Down and ArdsPortaferry2,653Down North1602221,020015819281,598
North Down and ArdsPortavogie2,799Down North1682351,076016869791,687
North Down and ArdsScrabo2,688Down Mid14801,0270250385341,619
North Down and ArdsWest Winds3,116Down Mid17201,1900290447401,878
 Total64,330 4,4172,40424,03906111,0845,69550738,757

The full details of these calculations are given on the Strangford seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Belfast South

The new seat of Belfast South is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Belfast South
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastBelvoir303Lagan Valley647590625281172
BelfastBelvoir3,193Belfast South63497616059258297111,801
BelfastBlackstaff3,768Belfast South725827720270342688212,747
BelfastCentral115Belfast West3243301115291116
BelfastCentral4,325Belfast South1119211,23404205781,091384,393
BelfastCregagh1,685Belfast East481574850719014451,036
BelfastCregagh1,493Belfast South43140430061691284920
BelfastFinaghy3,485Belfast South5349260106425730091,776
BelfastMalone3,478Belfast South55509621067266310101,838
BelfastMusgrave3,553Belfast South60548670071286334101,979
BelfastOrmeau3,488Belfast South675427180251318641202,557
BelfastRavenhill3,133Belfast South1126024810266541601,891
BelfastRosetta3,721Belfast South1317075620317671812,217
BelfastStranmillis3,921Belfast South836819020313399803253,206
BelfastUpper Malone3,551Belfast South56513627067268312101,853
BelfastWindsor3,893Belfast South1108971,19004155271,060334,232
BelfastWoodstock41Belfast East210800110031
BelfastWoodstock3,102Belfast South1407506190338162812,387
Lisburn and CastlereaghBeechill2,452Belfast South50397530018122334101,461
Lisburn and CastlereaghCairnshill2,441Belfast South4233644801510328391,236
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff East478Strangford10671010322572262
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff East2,056Belfast South4528743401597247101,135
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff West2,374Belfast South46368490017113310101,354
Lisburn and CastlereaghDrumbo2,224Lagan Valley21326848000178241,289
Lisburn and CastlereaghGalwally2,358Belfast South4334345901610628991,265
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockbracken215Strangford430430210261116
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockbracken2,325Belfast South46329465016106280101,252
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoneyreagh2,117Strangford6308110940209191,196
Lisburn and CastlereaghNewtownbreda2,047Belfast South383024010149225381,108
 Total71,335 1,81511,10415,65802,3276,9178,69331246,826

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Belfast South.


© 2018 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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