Belfast West: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Belfast West: Overview

 Projection: SF seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Paul Maskey  (SF)
County/Area: Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 73,497
Turnout: 65.4%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
SF28,94960.2%
DUP9,31119.4%
MIN4,83210.0%
SDLP3,3256.9%
OTH1,1752.4%
UUP4500.9%
Green530.1%
SF Majority19,63840.8%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Belfast West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Belfast West been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Belfast West

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Belfast North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Belfast North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Belfast NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAbbey1,014Belfast North09447010162487683
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyhenry995Belfast North029349011250264669
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBurnthill365Belfast North0111280491101245
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney200Belfast North0670025051134
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill1,572Belfast North01469201625174111,058
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCollinbridge1,981Belfast North0596940234985381,335
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGlebe2,092Belfast North0627330245265681,409
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGlengormley2,413Belfast North0728450286076491,625
Antrim and NewtownabbeyHightown1,254Belfast North037439014315335843
Antrim and NewtownabbeyO'Neill2,087Belfast North01991802133599141,406
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRathcoole2,151Belfast North019948021344102151,449
Antrim and NewtownabbeyValley2,171Belfast North020957022347102151,463
Antrim and NewtownabbeyWhitehouse1,973Belfast North01886902031693141,330
BelfastArdoyne3,611Belfast North0958120271,350128192,431
BelfastBallysillan3,327Belfast North0877490251,244118172,240
BelfastBellevue3,425Belfast North01701,052035921111162,305
BelfastCavehill2,933Belfast North014590103078995141,974
BelfastChichester Park3,643Belfast North01811,119037980118172,452
BelfastCliftonville3,629Belfast North0958160271,357129192,443
BelfastDuncairn4,379Belfast North02171,3440451,177142212,946
BelfastForth River738Belfast West01125007187365496
BelfastFortwilliam3,155Belfast North0156969032848102152,122
BelfastInnisfayle3,459Belfast North01711,063035931112162,328
BelfastLegoniel3,785Belfast North0998510291,415134202,548
BelfastNew Lodge3,283Belfast North0867390251,228116172,211
BelfastShankill1,870Belfast West02863501847591131,260
BelfastWater Works3,783Belfast North0998510281,415134202,547
BelfastWoodvale2,960Belfast West0431,005028751144211,992
 Total68,248 02,05821,245064419,1602,47536245,944

The full details of these calculations are given on the Belfast North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Belfast West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Belfast West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Belfast WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastAndersonstown3,137Belfast West014188001,557203532,042
BelfastBallygomartin3,887Belfast West085976009713951032,530
BelfastBallymurphy3,386Belfast West015295001,680220572,204
BelfastBeechmount3,815Belfast West0172107001,893248652,485
BelfastCentral177Belfast South013310046195114
BelfastClonard3,807Belfast West084956009513871012,479
BelfastCollin Glen3,849Belfast West0173108001,910249652,505
BelfastDunmurry2,813Belfast West017993001,411117311,831
BelfastFalls3,431Belfast West07686200856348912,233
BelfastFalls Park3,153Belfast West014288001,564204532,051
BelfastForth River2,435Belfast West05461200608247651,586
BelfastLadybrook3,384Belfast West0216111001,698141372,203
BelfastLagmore5,089Belfast West0325167002,553212553,312
BelfastPoleglass4,163Belfast West0265137002,089174452,710
BelfastShankill2,144Belfast West04753800535217571,394
BelfastShaw's Road3,416Belfast West015496001,695221582,224
BelfastStewartstown3,451Belfast West0220113001,730144382,245
BelfastTurf Lodge3,351Belfast West015094001,662218572,181
BelfastTwinbrook3,232Belfast West0206106001,621135352,103
BelfastWoodvale306Belfast West07770077318200
 Total62,426 02,8615,4550027,1074,1301,07940,632

The full details of these calculations are given on the Belfast West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Lagan Valley

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Lagan Valley, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Lagan ValleyTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDonaghcloney75Upper Bann133260025150
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDromore3,215Down Mid5311061,0910050192261,996
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGransha2,493Down Mid412828460038149201,547
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonQuilly2,989Down Mid495981,0130046178241,854
BelfastBelvoir265Belfast South1442640021193163
BelfastDunmurry908Belfast West209311900290375564
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallinderry2,566Antrim South2471918850016097131,593
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacash2,231Antrim South165115935000149201,384
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacbrennan2,064Down Mid21126843000178241,282
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacoss3,065Antrim South2261581,284000205281,901
Lisburn and CastlereaghBlaris2,177Antrim South31586760000168231,352
Lisburn and CastlereaghDerryaghy2,844Belfast West2321631,01500100223311,764
Lisburn and CastlereaghDromara2,386Down Mid24430973000205281,480
Lisburn and CastlereaghDrumbo2,077Belfast South21326848000178241,289
Lisburn and CastlereaghHarmony Hill2,205Antrim South1811277860077173241,368
Lisburn and CastlereaghHilden2,634Antrim South2151529400092207281,634
Lisburn and CastlereaghHillhall2,553Antrim South261321,041000220301,584
Lisburn and CastlereaghHillsborough2,234Down Mid32289779000172241,386
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockmore2,735Antrim South2031411,146000183251,698
Lisburn and CastlereaghLagan2,172Antrim South31486758000168231,349
Lisburn and CastlereaghLagan Valley2,436Antrim South1801251,021000163221,511
Lisburn and CastlereaghLambeg2,416Belfast West1981398630085190261,501
Lisburn and CastlereaghLisnagarvey2,219Antrim South165114929000149201,377
Lisburn and CastlereaghMaghaberry2,914Antrim South2792171,00500183110151,809
Lisburn and CastlereaghMagheralave2,275Antrim South1851318130081178241,412
Lisburn and CastlereaghMaze2,064Antrim South29981721000160221,283
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoira2,679Antrim South387106935000207281,663
Lisburn and CastlereaghOld Warren2,865Antrim South2121481,202000192261,780
Lisburn and CastlereaghRavernet2,103Down Mid21527858000181251,306
Lisburn and CastlereaghStonyford344Antrim South33261180021132213
Lisburn and CastlereaghWallace Park2,847Antrim South2321631,01700100223311,766
Lisburn and CastlereaghWhite Mountain3,198Antrim South3062381,10200200121171,984
Newry, Mourne and DownBallyward132Down South8222700214183
 Total72,380 7,5333,38326,763001,5674,99768344,926

The full details of these calculations are given on the Lagan Valley seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Belfast West

The new seat of Belfast West is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Belfast West
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastAndersonstown3,628Belfast West014188001,557203532,042
BelfastBallygomartin3,979Belfast West085976009713951032,530
BelfastBallymurphy3,365Belfast West015295001,680220572,204
BelfastBeechmount3,484Belfast West0172107001,893248652,485
BelfastClonard3,652Belfast West084956009513871012,479
BelfastCollin Glen3,874Belfast West0173108001,910249652,505
BelfastDunmurry910Lagan Valley5665100411379579
BelfastDunmurry2,858Belfast West15206161001,290117271,816
BelfastFalls3,225Belfast West07686200856348912,233
BelfastFalls Park3,633Belfast West014288001,564204532,051
BelfastForth River719Belfast North015200021846616483
BelfastForth River2,380Belfast West05066205611217541,599
BelfastLadybrook3,619Belfast West0216111001,698141372,203
BelfastLagmore4,393Belfast West0325167002,553212553,312
BelfastPoleglass3,664Belfast West0265137002,089174452,710
BelfastShankill1,850Belfast North03554608470143331,235
BelfastShankill2,127Belfast West040627010540165371,419
BelfastShaw's Road3,802Belfast West015496001,695221582,224
BelfastStewartstown3,553Belfast West0220113001,730144382,245
BelfastTurf Lodge3,459Belfast West015094001,662218572,181
BelfastTwinbrook3,326Belfast West0206106001,621135352,103
BelfastWoodvale288Belfast West051020378163207
BelfastWoodvale2,779Belfast North045980025750159261,985
Lisburn and CastlereaghDerryaghy2,628Lagan Valley2321631,01500100223311,764
Lisburn and CastlereaghLambeg2,302Lagan Valley1981398630085190261,501
 Total73,497 4503,3259,31105328,9494,8321,17548,095

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Belfast West.


© 2018 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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