Berwick and Morpeth: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Berwick and Morpeth: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Anne-Marie Trevelyan  (CON)
County/Area: Northumberland (North East)
Electorate: 77,026
Turnout: 73.6%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON29,29751.7%
LAB16,01628.2%
LIB9,55316.8%
Green1,3582.4%
UKIP4780.8%
CON Majority13,28123.4%

See overview of other seats in North East.

Berwick and Morpeth : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Berwick and Morpeth constituency, the 'North East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatNorth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONLABCON
Economic Position3° Right8° Left
National Position3° Nat4° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %54%58%52%
British Identity28%26%29%
Good Health42%44%48%
UK Born97%95%88%
Good Education33%35%39%
Good Job43%46%51%
High SEC44%44%51%
Average Age51.549.048.5
ABC1 Class42%47%53%

Berwick and Morpeth ranks #302 for "Leave", #265 for "Right" and #284 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Berwick and Morpeth: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Berwick and Morpeth been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Berwick and Morpeth

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Berwick-upon-Tweed

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Berwick-upon-Tweed, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Berwick-upon-TweedTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
NorthumberlandAlnwick7,639Berwick and Morpeth2,8631,1781,34401010005,486
NorthumberlandAmble3,866Berwick and Morpeth8731,5183730130002,777
NorthumberlandAmble West with Warkworth3,239Berwick and Morpeth1,3904264540570002,327
NorthumberlandBamburgh3,631Berwick and Morpeth1,6403405920350002,607
NorthumberlandBerwick East3,799Berwick and Morpeth1,2386807740370002,729
NorthumberlandBerwick North3,468Berwick and Morpeth1,3404226380910002,491
NorthumberlandBerwick West with Ord3,132Berwick and Morpeth1,0824177250250002,249
NorthumberlandDruridge Bay4,988Berwick and Morpeth1,1521,9234770310003,583
NorthumberlandLonghorsley2,172Berwick and Morpeth1,1362271730240001,560
NorthumberlandLonghoughton3,647Berwick and Morpeth2,07218525601060002,619
NorthumberlandLynemouth3,593Blyth and Ashington6151,4514980170002,581
NorthumberlandNorham and Islandshires3,430Berwick and Morpeth1,4472157520490002,463
NorthumberlandPegswood665Berwick and Morpeth2091768606000477
NorthumberlandPonteland North538Hexham and Cramlington313353701000386
NorthumberlandRothbury3,878Berwick and Morpeth1,3672611,0730840002,785
NorthumberlandShilbottle3,832Berwick and Morpeth1,6517063420540002,753
NorthumberlandWooler3,256Berwick and Morpeth1,7572033210570002,338
 Total58,773 22,14510,3638,915078800042,211

The full details of these calculations are given on the Berwick-upon-Tweed seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Hexham

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Hexham, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: HexhamTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
NorthumberlandBellingham3,278Berwick and Morpeth1,63861216517520002,484
NorthumberlandBywell3,654Hexham and Cramlington1,1631,17927751450002,769
NorthumberlandCorbridge3,365Hexham and Cramlington1,5317462225440002,548
NorthumberlandHaltwhistle3,861Hexham and Cramlington1,2601,327155119650002,926
NorthumberlandHaydon and Hadrian3,585Hexham and Cramlington1,188830510103850002,716
NorthumberlandHexham Central with Acomb3,581Hexham and Cramlington1,2571,10920770700002,713
NorthumberlandHexham East3,525Hexham and Cramlington1,2401,00925976860002,670
NorthumberlandHexham West3,364Hexham and Cramlington1,30574739018900002,550
NorthumberlandHumshaugh3,339Hexham and Cramlington1,57573515415500002,529
NorthumberlandPonteland East and Stannington3,206Hexham and Cramlington1,7944688051360002,429
NorthumberlandPonteland North3,144Hexham and Cramlington1,9513426810110002,382
NorthumberlandPonteland South with Heddon3,132Hexham and Cramlington1,8243281937220002,374
NorthumberlandPonteland West3,567Hexham and Cramlington2,1124195866480002,703
NorthumberlandPrudhoe North4,645Hexham and Cramlington1,2001,964133146770003,520
NorthumberlandPrudhoe South4,037Hexham and Cramlington8391,818127210640003,058
NorthumberlandSouth Tynedale3,885Hexham and Cramlington1,9897141645710002,943
NorthumberlandStocksfield and Broomhaugh3,842Hexham and Cramlington1,1281,41512472370002,911
 Total61,010 24,99415,7623,2869301,25300046,225

The full details of these calculations are given on the Hexham seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Wansbeck

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Wansbeck, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: WansbeckTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
NorthumberlandAshington Central3,760Blyth and Ashington4391,9685696110002,570
NorthumberlandBedlington Central3,561Blyth and Ashington9561,31510244170002,434
NorthumberlandBedlington East3,584Blyth and Ashington4891,77757113150002,451
NorthumberlandBedlington West3,678Blyth and Ashington1,0811,2588064320002,515
NorthumberlandBothal3,430Blyth and Ashington7581,33017959180002,344
NorthumberlandChoppington3,684Berwick and Morpeth6351,7733753210002,519
NorthumberlandCollege3,768Blyth and Ashington4432,0183470110002,576
NorthumberlandHaydon3,489Blyth and Ashington6141,6159945120002,385
NorthumberlandHirst4,024Blyth and Ashington8331,75537111150002,751
NorthumberlandLonghorsley875Berwick and Morpeth41711621359000598
NorthumberlandMorpeth Kirkhill3,777Berwick and Morpeth1,38580130950370002,582
NorthumberlandMorpeth North3,701Berwick and Morpeth1,271615216254020002,529
NorthumberlandMorpeth Stobhill3,446Berwick and Morpeth1,15091422342260002,355
NorthumberlandNewbiggin Central and East3,772Blyth and Ashington6721,66712886260002,579
NorthumberlandPegswood3,041Berwick and Morpeth879850117217150002,078
NorthumberlandSeaton with Newbiggin West3,614Blyth and Ashington5111,6924821460002,471
NorthumberlandSleekburn3,514Blyth and Ashington6651,415187120160002,403
NorthumberlandStakeford3,382Berwick and Morpeth7051,4588539260002,313
 Total62,100 13,90324,3372,0151,48371500042,453

The full details of these calculations are given on the Wansbeck seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Berwick and Morpeth

The new seat of Berwick and Morpeth is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Berwick and Morpeth
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
NorthumberlandAlnwick7,449Berwick-upon-Tweed2,8631,1781,34401010005,486
NorthumberlandAmble3,408Berwick-upon-Tweed8731,5183730130002,777
NorthumberlandAmble West with Warkworth3,318Berwick-upon-Tweed1,3904264540570002,327
NorthumberlandBamburgh3,450Berwick-upon-Tweed1,6403405920350002,607
NorthumberlandBellingham3,050Hexham1,63861216517520002,484
NorthumberlandBerwick East3,215Berwick-upon-Tweed1,2386807740370002,729
NorthumberlandBerwick North3,146Berwick-upon-Tweed1,3404226380910002,491
NorthumberlandBerwick West with Ord2,943Berwick-upon-Tweed1,0824177250250002,249
NorthumberlandChoppington3,442Wansbeck6351,7733753210002,519
NorthumberlandDruridge Bay3,936Berwick-upon-Tweed1,1521,9234770310003,583
NorthumberlandLonghorsley2,282Berwick-upon-Tweed1,10724513825240001,539
NorthumberlandLonghorsley919Wansbeck4469856109000619
NorthumberlandLonghoughton3,286Berwick-upon-Tweed2,07218525601060002,619
NorthumberlandMorpeth Kirkhill4,015Wansbeck1,38580130950370002,582
NorthumberlandMorpeth North3,650Wansbeck1,271615216254020002,529
NorthumberlandMorpeth Stobhill3,502Wansbeck1,15091422342260002,355
NorthumberlandNorham and Islandshires3,440Berwick-upon-Tweed1,4472157520490002,463
NorthumberlandPegswood688Berwick-upon-Tweed19518436394000458
NorthumberlandPegswood3,145Wansbeck893842167178170002,097
NorthumberlandRothbury3,957Berwick-upon-Tweed1,3672611,0730840002,785
NorthumberlandShilbottle3,962Berwick-upon-Tweed1,6517063420540002,753
NorthumberlandStakeford3,505Wansbeck7051,4588539260002,313
NorthumberlandWooler3,318Berwick-upon-Tweed1,7572033210570002,338
 Total77,026 29,29716,0169,5534781,35800056,702

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Berwick and Morpeth.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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